A longer-term look at SS

Absent a hope and a prayer on Jimmy Rollins, and a possible signing of Alex Gonzalez (which I’ve heard not a whisper of), Yuniesky Betancourt – The Sequel is looking increasingly likely. But, regardless, Gonzalez isn’t getting any younger and Yuni isn’t getting any better, so hopefully we’re looking at a one year deal. The problem the Brewers face is that we are a good five years away from having a ML ready SS…so it might be time to think about our options for 2013 and beyond.

A quick look at the farm illustrates the point. At 30 years old, Nashville’s Edwin Maysonet is not The Answer. Zelous Wheeler is 5’10”, 220 and last played short in 2010, committing 32 errors in 93 games. Angels’ castoff Hainley Statia will be 26 in January and was a bit old for AA, though he had a solid year. Josh Prince had a couple good months to open his pro career and a couple good months repeating Brevard this year – with not much in between. He’ll be 24 next year at Huntsville, so perhaps there’s a glimmer of hope. Don’t bank on it. Yadi Rivera has five years to learn plate discipline. Orlando Arcia played in the DSL, figure six years out.

The free agent shortstop market next year may feature Erick Aybar and no one else of substance. Stephen Drew has a $10 million club option, so he’s possible, but one would imagine the Diamondbacks pick it up if his leg heals. Jhonny Peralta has a $6 million club option that will certainly be exercised. So it could be another year of scraping the barrel for the Crew.

It’s likely the Brewers give priority to a trade at the MLB level, though we’ll discuss those options at length throughout the hot stove season, from Maicer Izturis to Hanley to whomever.

I’d propose, however, that it may be time to trade prospect for prospect – and since elite SS’s aren’t cheap, I’d look to send an “upper middle class” prospect in exchange for a flyer on a cheap serviceable (either glove or bat) shortstop.

A guy who might garner some interest is Cody Scarpetta. He’s 23, with plenty to like: 9.5K/9, 7.7 H/9, and the organization’s best curveball (Baseball America 2012). He ranks as our #7 (BA) prospect, a B- / C+ prospect (Sickels) and performed well enough at AA Huntsville last year, save for a lower K rate. His two biggest warts are a persistent 4.5 BB/9 walk rate, and the fact that he is out of options after the coming season. It’s a good time to take stock of Cody.

So given the organization’s needs, here’s a small sample of candidates…

Eduardo Escobar (CWS)

He’s MLB ready but blocked by Alexei Ramirez (who is signed thru 2015). With the Mark Buerhle departure, the South Siders might have an interest in an extra arm. Escobar is young (turns 23 in January), ranked as the Sox’ #5 prospect (BA – 2011 list); and a C+ prospect (Sickels – year ago). There don’t appear to be any questions with his glove (BA ranked him as CWS system’s Best Defensive IF ); the issue is whether he can hit. Escobar enjoyed a good AFL campaign in 2010 (.300/.353/.536 in 110AB) and hit .266/.303/.354 at AAA in 2011. ZIPS projects him at .256/.290/.344 for 2012. So he wouldn’t be an upgrade to Yuni with the bat but would certainly tighten up the defense. Maybe that’s not so bad -- interestingly, Eduardo’s ZIPS projection is identical to Alcides Escobar’s slash line from his first two years in the bigs (.252/.294/.339). Who woudn't take Alcides back?

Junior Lake (CHC)

Lake is a couple years away, having split 2011 between high A and AA. He is only 21, from the Dominican, but is blocked by Starlin Castro , who is under club control until 2017. He is 6’3”, 215 and has a little pop (.279 /.316/.434 last season at two levels). Defensively, he was recognized by BA as having the Cub system’s Best IF Arm, though he is still error prone. BA ranks Junior as the Cubs #8 prospect. A year ago Lake did not rank in Sickels’ top 20, though I would expect he will move up significantly based on having excelled in the FSL (.315/.336/.498) and at least held his own at AA as a 21 year old (.248/.300/380).

Didi Gregorius (CIN)

Gregorius is 6’1”, 175, and turns 22 in February. Like Lake, he split his season between A+ and AA. He too was not listed among Sickels’ top 20 Reds’ prospects a year ago, though BA presently ranks him as the Reds #8 prospect after putting up a .289/.324/.429 slash line for the 2011 season. Didi is also recognized by BA as both the Reds’ Best IF Arm and Best Defensive IF. Technically, he is behind both Zack Cozart and speed demon Billy Hamilton. The question is whether the Reds would swing a deal before Cozart’s elbow proves healthy. With the Reds need for pitching, there could still be a deal to be done. Or alternatively, we take a flyer on Cozart with a lesser (or equally damaged) prospect. (Anyone ready to throw in the towel on Mark Rogers?)

Jonathan Schoop (BAL)

He’ll need to find another position or another organization, given the presence of Manny Machado. Schoop isn’t really a near term solution, having peaked at high A this year (as a 19 year old). Ranked #10 by BA and #7 and a C+ by Sickels (all before the 2011 season), Schoop’s stock is presumably on the rise after a .290/.349/.432 campaign split between the Carolina and Sally leagues. There may be enough upside with Schoop for the O's to warrant a higher return than Scarpetta.

This list is more illustrative than exhaustive. But given the presence of Peralta, Thornberg, Bradley and Jungmann, the Brewers should seriously consider exchanging someone like Scarpetta to fill what could be a long-term position of need.