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Around SBN: Full Coverage of 2012 Coke 600

Thursday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while checking.

It's not spring training until the first significant injury: Jonathan Lucroy broke the pinkie finger on his right (throwing) hand while practicing plays at the plate yesterday, will have surgery to insert a pin into the finger and is expected to miss four weeks (FanShot).

Broken finger or no, Lucroy sounds committed to doing everything he can to get ready this spring so he can get back on the active roster. He still intends to catch bullpen sessions and take part in whatever drills he can. His projected recovery time would suggest he'll be full strength about a week before the Brewers break camp, though, so it'd probably be a stretch for him to make the Opening Day roster at this point.

With the strong possibility that Lucroy won't be ready for Opening Day, Brian Carriveau of PocketDoppler noted that the race for the backup catcher spot will likely get a little more attention this spring. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Shawn Riggans is going to get a chance to compete for the job: He's still suffering from the aftereffects of pneumonia and is expected to report to minor league camp when he returns. Despite losing two catchers in camp's opening week, Doug Melvin told Adam McCalvy he's comfortable with his depth at the position at this point.

Lucroy isn't the only Brewer nursing an injury in camp, though: Mark Rogers, Zack Greinke and Mat Gamel also missed time yesterday. Rogers is suffering from shoulder tightness, but downplayed it when talking to Tom Haudricourt. Greinke has bruised ribs, but the injury is also believed to be minor. Gamel has an oblique strain and isn't expected to hit for a week or so.

Other notes from camp:

Adam McCalvy also has details regarding the incentives in Mark Kotsay's contract: He can earn an extra $450,000 in total, with $150k tied to plate appearances, $200k tied to starts and $100k due if he's still with the team on July 1.

A day later, a fair number of people are still talking about Zack Greinke's interview session from Tuesday. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star used to cover Greinke when he was with the Royals, and says not much has changed. Ron Roenicke told Adam McCalvy that he likes Greinke's direct, no-nonsense style.

I think most of us are pretty happy to have Shaun Marcum in camp this spring and there's somewhat universal agreement that moving from the AL East to the NL Central should improve his numbers a bit, but how much? Vaughn's Valley used some past examples to estimate Marcum's NL bump.

Speaking of things that are difficult to quantify: David Pinto of Baseball Musings continues to rank teams and players defensively by his Probabilistic Model of Range over the last five seasons. Carlos Gomez came in as the fourth best center fielder over the last five seasons.

In the minors:

  • Satchel Price of Beyond the Box Score has a post up listing his personal top 15 Brewer prospects, and has Mark Rogers at #1.
  • As part of yesterday's All Questions Answered thread, John Sickels of Minor League Ball said Zach Braddock will likely continue to build on his 2010 success, Mark Rogers will likely end up in the bullpen, Kyle Heckathorn should start the season with Brevard County and Zelous Wheeler is the Brewer prospect he'd take along on a quest to rescue Princess Zelda.
  • Prospect Madness continues at Bernie's Crew: The last matchup I've seen features Amaury Rivas and Steffan Wilson.

Yesterday's big news around baseball was the fact that Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is expected to need Tommy John surgery and miss the 2011 season. Shaun Marcum was one of several players quoted in this reaction piece at Cardinals.com.

If Wainwright is in fact out for the year, that changes the NL Central race a bit: Updated ZiPS projections now have the Brewers and Reds tied at 85 wins, two ahead of the Cardinals.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Pitcher Vicente Padilla will likely open the season on the DL after undergoing surgery to release an entrapped nerve in his pitching arm.

Today in former Brewers: Bill Hall is expected to be the Astros' second baseman this season. Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle has a look at the various positions Hall has played as a big leaguer.

Here are today's spring training stories:

My favorite graphics of the day came via MLB Trade Trees: They have a graphical representation of the Brewers/Mets/Rockies trade that sent Jeromy Burnitz to the Mets and the resulting career tree for Benny Agbayani.

With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to 1991 Brewer Matias Carrillo, who turns 48.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to stop that bus.

Drink up.

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That list fails to take into account veteran presence

Due to Kotsay’s years in the league, the balls are actually slightly attracted towards him like a weak gravity well and hence his range doesn’t actually have to be as good to still be a contributor to the ball club.

by ecocd on Feb 24, 2011 9:47 AM CST up reply actions  

Loek Van Mil vs. Kameron Loe

Is there any coincidence that they both have Loe in their name? I think not.

"Special teams means special times, bros"

by schmita91 on Feb 24, 2011 10:33 AM CST reply actions  

Was that Sal Bando or Dean Taylor?

I mean, that trade was terrible, but I can’t determine which brand of terrible, as both GMs certainly had their own distinct way of crippling the team.

I don’t know how we not only traded 4 players for 3 players who were all arguably worse than the 4 players we traded, but then also had to kick in cash on the deal to cover Burnie’s contract. I mean, I know it happened a lot in the black-hole decade of Brewers baseball, but come on…

by mpbMKE on Feb 24, 2011 11:17 AM CST reply actions  

It was Dean Taylor

Let’s look at it though. Burnitz was overpaid for his production (though I’m not sure how much a Win of WAR was worth then), and was actually out performed by Ochoa in 2002, despite Ochoa only getting half a season with the crew.
For the pitchers, they were sick of D’Amico’s health problems, and shipped him to New York for Glendon Rouch. Rouch was just barely above replacement in 02, but still better than D’Amico’s -0.1 WAR he put up for the mets that year.
Lou Collier never played a game for the Mets who traded him to Montreal for Jimmy Seranno and… JASON BAY?!? Are You Kidding Me?!? The Mets moved Bay to San Diego, who was able to parlay Bay into Brian Giles, with the Pirates reaping the rewards. Collier had 48 more plate appearances in his career.
I know for a fact that Sweeney was a lockerroom malcontent who HATED Milwaukee. He was released by the Mets in spring of that year.
Lenny Harris, on the other hand, put up 0.7 WAR with a .315 AVE in 215 plate appearances.

So, combining the WARs for the teams they were traded to:
Brewers (Ochoa, Harris, Rouch) 2.4, Mets 0.2

That’s a win for that season. Burnitz had one more good season in him in Colorado, and a decent half season the following hear for the mets before being traded and tanking with the dodgers. Collier had 48 PAs in the majors after that season. D’Amico was never more than a replacement level innings eater, and Sweeney was never more than a bench player who only once was worth more than a win the rest of his career.

Harris got a ring with florida the following year as a bench guy, Rouch put up one of the worst seasons in Brewers history by a pitcher putting up -1.5 WAR in 123 innings and was non-tendered, Ochoa was traded and got a ring with Anaheim later in 02, but played in Japan after signing and being released by the cards before the 03 season.

All in all, pretty Meh all around, though I think we could’ve gotten a lot more for Burnitz.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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by Hyatt on Feb 24, 2011 12:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Damn your statistics ruining my sarcasm with thoughtful arguments!

by mpbMKE on Feb 24, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

In the long run, it was still a horrible trade

and dean taylor’s greatest contribution to this franchise is still Jack Z.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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by Hyatt on Feb 24, 2011 6:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

So if Lucroy will be ready a week before breaking camp...

You really think we’d need to send him to the minors for a while instead of just easing him in the first few weeks of the regular season?

I'm a simple man, I go to the ballpark for Home Runs and Victories. Everything else is bonus.

by mladwig0 on Feb 24, 2011 11:31 AM CST reply actions  

Yes

He’s still going to need time to work on throwing out basestealers and his hitting.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Feb 24, 2011 12:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Corey Hart has a Why So Serious tattoo down his spine?

Dude gets some weird tattoos. I wonder if they didn’t show the deformed face on his arm for a reason, that was the one I was most interested in actually seeing a good shot of.

by Noah Jarosh on Feb 24, 2011 11:35 AM CST reply actions  

how has the asu coverage been so far?

i stopped reading the journal when i couldn’t deal with aw anymore, so now that he’s gone i can probably go back. but after watching that tattoo video, it seems like it’s a different kind of terrible.

by Capt Science on Feb 24, 2011 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

They're sticking the ASU interns with all the human interest stories

If you want the substantial crap, that’s Haudricourt’s beat.

by morineko on Feb 25, 2011 5:11 PM CST up reply actions  

or you know a good reporter like McCalvy.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Feb 25, 2011 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

he doesn't care

since he can’t actually see any of his tattoos

Celebrating the addition of Greinke and mourning the loss of my man crush Cain

by molitorfan on Feb 26, 2011 7:50 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

nope

he signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Feb 24, 2011 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I too am available to pitch

and I’d take the league minimum

Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.

by theBrouhaha on Feb 24, 2011 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Why?

That makes less sense than the Kotsay signing, in my opinion.

by ecocd on Feb 24, 2011 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Or even

Jeff Weaver

Otherwise, they missed the boat on Suppan and Looper.

How about Doug Davis? The Brewers sure liked to hit him when he played for the Diamondbacks.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Feb 24, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

After last year's injury his velocity probably dropped to 75

I'm a simple man, I go to the ballpark for Home Runs and Victories. Everything else is bonus.

by mladwig0 on Feb 24, 2011 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Perfect for the Cards

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Feb 25, 2011 10:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Good article by Vaughn's Valley

Doesn’t change what I expect from Marcum, but interesting to look at the hard stats.

by KRaw on Feb 24, 2011 12:19 PM CST reply actions  

Certainly seems to challenge the idea

(Propagated heavily by Bill Simmons) that the NL is essentially another AAA compared to the AL.

by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 24, 2011 12:34 PM CST up reply actions  

The more I think about it the more I’m convinced that Marcum is going to be the #2 guy. Not that his numbers are much better than Gallardo’s but that he is a very different pitcher than ZG and Yo.

Gallardo and Greinke both have plus fastballs and breaking pitches. where Marcum appears to be more of a change of pace guy. More varied selection of pitches, mixing speeds and locations. It might make more sense to put him between the two power arms.

The only downside is that Yovani goes from opening day to the 3rd guy. Not sure how big a deal that is to him, but I consider them 1a, 1b, and 1c in no particular order.

by grant76 on Feb 24, 2011 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Prediciton

Gallardo will be the best starting pitcher for the Brewers in 2011

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Feb 25, 2011 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I know

I just get the feeling that most people are under the assumption Greinke’s numbers will be better this year with the switch to the NL and better environment outside of KC, and Yo is getting overlooked.

I’m hopeful for a big year out of Yo. Last year he cut his walk rate down from 4.6 per 9 to 3.6 while keeping his strikeouts about the same. If he can get the walk rate to under 3.0 per 9 and cut down on his 20+ pitch innings he’ll be a beast in 2011.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Feb 25, 2011 3:27 PM CST up reply actions  

I think he'll break the 3 FIP mark in 2011.

He was, I think, 8th in all of the MLB in FIP last year.

by Noah Jarosh on Feb 25, 2011 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Feel bad for Cardinal fans, feel bad for Wainwright....

But seeing TLR address reporters after the injury brought a HUGE smile to my face

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Feb 24, 2011 12:37 PM CST reply actions  

No

You eventually reach a point where its not possible to up your alcohol intake, pretty sure TLR hit that point a while ago

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Feb 24, 2011 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

No

but he will probably be too distraught to Just for Men his chest hair.

by mpbMKE on Feb 24, 2011 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Yé yaille! Ça, c’est malheureux. (Ouch...That's too bad)

… about Lucroy’s throwing pinkie. It’s almost as important as a beer snob’s pinkie (we need ours to poke out just beyond our Trappist glass).

"Relax, have a homebrew."

by CajunCavern on Feb 24, 2011 1:38 PM CST reply actions  

It is a goblet.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Feb 24, 2011 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Wainwright to have Tommy John

Out for year

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by Jeo on Feb 24, 2011 3:59 PM CST reply actions  

At Bat 2011 has been released

When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved

by Getting Yosted on Feb 24, 2011 7:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

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