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Around SBN: Full Coverage of 2012 Coke 600

Monday's Frosty Mug

I'd say the pressure is on now.

Some things to read while celebrating a defunct car manufacturer.

Last night, as the postgame festivities were underway, I received a text from our own SgtClueLs. He also tweeted the contents:

Greinke. It's your turn now. Wisconsin 2011.

This offseason's sudden and dramatic shift in expectations may not be completely fair, but they got ratcheted up again last night and have to be near record highs at this point. Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com has several Brewers' reactions to the Packers winning the Super Bowl.

Before the Brewers can start work on the Wisconsin dynasty, though, they have some contract issues to resolve. They're running out of time to reach a deal with Shaun Marcum, whose arbitration hearing is scheduled for Thursday. The Twins and Francisco Liriano avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one year, $4.3 million contract over the weekend, and Adam McCalvy says that number may be important to Marcum's case. He's asking for $5 million from the Brewers, who countered at $3 million.

Meanwhile, Gord Ash told Tom Haudricourt that the team is not close to a deal with Rickie Weeks. John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a look back at Weeks' career to date.

As you might expect from someone with an investment background, Mark Attanasio's approach to the Brewer budget is both unique and makes a lot of sense: He told Tom Haudricourt he's letting the level of available talent determine the Brewers' budget.

It seems unlikely, though, that he'd be willing to expand the budget enough to retain Prince Fielder. John Linn of the UWM Post says the Brewers don't need to.

He's been bumped from the #1 spot in the rotation, but Yovani Gallardo is still a pretty important part of the Brewers' title hopes in 2011. Vaughn's Valley ranked him #2 on their list of Brewers Critical to 2011 Success.

The Brewers made a couple of minor moves this weekend, signing Rule 5 pick Pat Egan and Mike McClendon to 2011 contracts. Neither player was eligible for arbitration.

Adam McCalvy emptied his inbox over the weekend, answering questions about the Brewers' defense up the middle, Russell Branyan, Brett Lawrie, prospects, Chris Narveson, Manny Parra, Craig Counsell and Geoff Jenkins.

In the minors:

  • The Nashville Sounds sat down with Tim Dillard to discuss his offseason routine and his home in Nashville. Dillard is five wins, 100 innings and 90 strikeouts away from being the Sounds' career leader in all three categories.
  • BrewerProspects.com has a profile of Eric Arnett.
  • The Timber Rattlers closed out season two of The Offseason with some outtakes and commentary.
  • Benjamin Hill of MiLB.com noticed that the Brevard County Manatees are promising a special gift to fans who tell them to "Fear the Sea Cow" at an upcoming Tampa Bay Lightning game.

If you made a list of made-up sports holidays in order of relevance, it's possible "Truck Day" would be the least important date on the list. But it's tomorrow, and I'm still excited about it.

I know I promised to stop spending so much time discussing Mark Kotsay, so today I'm limiting myself to one set of bullet points and burying it down here:

  • Kotsay told Adam McCalvy he sees the Brewers as a "perfect fit." That probably has something to do with the Brewers being the only team willing to pay him.
  • Reliever Roque Mercedes was designated for assignment to make room for Kotsay (FanShot). It seems unlikely he'll be claimed off waivers, but you never know.
  • Tommy Rancel of FanGraphs doesn't understand how Kotsay got a major league deal while Jim Edmonds got an NRI.

Around baseball:

Cardinals: Signed Jim Edmonds to a minor league deal (FanShot).
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Ron Mahay to a minor league deal.
Mariners: Signed outfielder Gabe Gross to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed pitcher J.D. Martin, catcher Carlos Maldonado, first baseman Kevin Barker and outfielder Laynce Nix to minor league deals.
Orioles: Signed DH Vladimir Guerrero to a one year, $8 million deal.
Rays: Signed pitcher Juan Cruz to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Dennys Reyes to a minor league deal.
Royals: Signed third baseman Pedro Feliz to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Signed outfielder Lastings Milledge to a minor league deal.
Yankees: Signed third baseman Eric Chavez and infielder Ronnie Belliard to minor league deals.

One of today's former Brewer notes got me thinking a bit: Royally Speaking is predicting Alcides Escobar will be the 13th Royal shortstop to steal 20 or more bases in a season. Only three Brewers have done it:

Player Season SB
Pat Listach 1992 54
Rick Auerbach 1972 24
Robin Yount 1980 20

Elsewhere in former Brewer notes:

Here's another interesting historical note: With Andy Pettitte's retirement and Jamie Moyer sitting out 2011, Aaron Gleeman of Hardball Talk noted that no active pitchers have 200 wins, and only eight have 150.

Today's most interesting graphic is linked over at Halos Heaven: It's a heat map showing the birthplaces of US-born major leaguers since 1964.

Here are some other notes tied to yesterday's big game:

You can file this note under "jokes I couldn't resist:" A vandal spray painted the plaque below Harry Caray's statue outside Wrigley Field this weekend. Here's what the Chicago Tribune says they wrote:

Someone spray painted the words "Sox" on the base, as well as a second, not-quite-intelligible word.

I'm not certain, but it's possible "Sox (something unintelligible)" was actually a direct quote from Caray.

With help from Brewerfan.net and the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday to:

Plesac's birthday was also celebrated at Baseball Digest.

Finally, here's a quick piece of history for today: On this day in 2008, I authored a FanPost titled "Thursday morning reads." It was awful, but people read it anyway so I produced another one the next day and the Frosty Mug was born. Today my writing is still occasionally awful (but less so, I hope), and I'm celebrating my three year Mugiversary. Thank you to all of you who read and comment on it: You're the ones that make this job fun.

And yes, I am left-handed.

Drink up.

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Happy Mugiversary, Kyle!

Thanks you for making boring lectures much more bearable and for helping me procrastinate when I really don’t feel like doing my work.

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 7, 2011 10:55 AM CST reply actions  

At least Kotsay is saying the right things
“I know Prince is going to play 160 games, but if I can help him through the season a little and if I’m able to stay fresh and healthy, I can be an asset to the club,” Kotsay said. “I have the experience from playing 14 seasons, so hopefully I can help some off the field, too, as far as the mental grind that we go through.”

It appears as though he isn’t expecting to contribute much on the field which is also a nice expectation. I’m still not sure why the Brewers felt they needed to pay the coach/cheerleader $1 million, but at least we know our newest coach/cheerleader has a good attitude and realistic expectations.

If he’d said, “I expect to prove to everyone I can still play at a high level at this stage in my career and will get my share of time in the field,” I would be less happy.

by ecocd on Feb 7, 2011 11:24 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Ed Sedar replacement?

Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.

by theBrouhaha on Feb 7, 2011 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

Baseball season officially begins today.

The emotional rollercoaster that is the Packers football season is over, culminating in a world championship. I wanted to burn down my house after the win, but…. I’m a renter.

Go Brew Crew!

don't forget to brush your teeth.

by Drew C on Feb 7, 2011 11:33 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Wrong.

Baseball season never ends.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Feb 7, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Triviality

If history holds true, the Brewers have about a one in 11 chance to win the World Series this year. Only 4 times in the history of the Super Bowl, has the winning team of the SB and WS came from the same city (of course I realize that Green Bay and Milwaukee are different cities)….1970 Baltimore Colts and Orioles, 1979 Steelers and Pirates, 1986 Giants and Mets, 2004 Patriots and Red Sox.

by backtocali on Feb 7, 2011 12:00 PM CST reply actions  

Another piece of recent history is on their side...
[over the last 9 years] Only in 2006 did an AFC team (Pittsburgh Steelers) win the Super Bowl while a National League team (St. Louis Cardinals) won the World Series. In all other years, whenever an AFC team won the Super Bowl, an American League won the World Series and vice versa for the NFC and National League.

Twitterize me: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Feb 7, 2011 12:04 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah

I’d take those odds in a second

Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.

by theBrouhaha on Feb 7, 2011 2:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Anywhere from 20:1 to 35:1

On 01/29/2011, I put $5 on the Brewers to win the NLCS at 18:1 odds and $5 to win the WS at 35:1 odds at Wynn/Encore. A few days earlier I paid $5 to for them to win the NLCS at 15:1 odds at Gold Coast. They didn’t have WS odds posted, so they couldn’t take a bet for that. (Naturally they had most of their options/propositions set for the Super Bowl.) Had I placed the WS bet at Wynn/Encore in November, I could have gotten 60:1, so the pitching trades are being felt by the oddsmakers.

Later in the day on the 29th I saw odds at Harrahs that had the Brewers at 8:1 to win the NLCS and 20:1 to win the WS. Right now, you need to shop around in Vegas to get the best deal.

Funniest of all, the Cubs had ‘shorter’ odds on both bets. The lines are definitely based on bet volume, at this time; there are more suckers from IL than WI visiting Vegas! Get your bets in now before Vegas wises up!

by ddloml on Feb 7, 2011 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

To me

the Packers winning yesterday pretty much guaranteed the Brewers won’t win the WS (not that I had a ton of confidence in that happening anyway). The sports gods would never smile on Wisconsin twice in one year.

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Feb 7, 2011 3:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Flagged

the sports gods are always smiling down upon Wisconsin

BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ

by Jeo on Feb 7, 2011 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Um... Rose Bowl?

I know we didn’t win it, but that was a heck of a season. And don’t sleep on Bucky’s basketball team making some noise in March. Unless you’re some kind of pro-sports elitist… :)

by mpbMKE on Feb 8, 2011 11:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah Bo Ryan's teams always make a deep run.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Feb 8, 2011 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Not always

But fairly often – 3 times in his 9 years as coach.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Feb 8, 2011 11:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Doesn't it actually mean it's a huge good luck charm?

For example, in 2010 the random chance of both a given NFL team winning the Super Bowl and a given MLB team winning the World Series was 1 in 960 or 0.10% (32 NFL teams, 30 MLB teams, ignoring the effect of multi-team cities). The average of the years 1966 to 2009 was 1 in 751, or 0.13%. So if it’s happened 4 out of 44 times, or 9.1% of the time, it actually suggests it’s an incredible good luck charm.

I think you have the years correlated wrong though; e.g. the Colts won the Super Bowl played in 1971 for the 1970-1971 season, but the Orioles won for the 1970 season (so the 2011 Packers Super Bowl victory actually matches up with the 2010 San Francisco World Series). Looking at the winner of the Super Bowl versus the World Series champion for the year the Super Bowl was actually played, it’s happened only three times (1968, New York; 1978, Pittsburgh; 2003, New England/Boston) and thus only 6.8% of the time.

Still, history suggests that your hometown football team winning the Super Bowl increases your hometown baseball team’s chances of winning the World Series by nearly seventy-fold. The gods smileth upon us! :)

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 3:03 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

two things

1) as you alluded to, new york/near new jersey has two teams of each type, which dramatically increases their odds
2) NY and Boston are large markets, or have payrolls that reflect that. Baltimore is in a fairly large market, but lately their payroll has been low. Was it high when the O’s won?

Obviously NY isn’t guaranteed to win simply by spending a lot of money, but their odds are much better than 0.1%. And I also acknowledge that the NFL currently revenue shares and salary caps (but how long has that been going on?), but by saying NY has bought themselves a 1/4 shot of winning the WS, that brings their total odds to 1 in 128, assuming merchandise, broadcasting, ticket sales, player recruiting, etc are completely evenly split between all NFL teams.

by PagsBrewCrew on Feb 8, 2011 6:08 AM CST up reply actions  

Orioles

The last time the Orioles did anything was back in 1997 when they won the AL East. That year, they had the second highest opening day payroll… just under $55M (behind the Yankees by a little more than $4M).

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Feb 8, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks Kyle

for 3 years of delicious frosty mugs. And congrats to the Packers!

Celebrating the addition of Greinke and mourning the loss of my man crush Cain

by molitorfan on Feb 7, 2011 5:31 PM CST reply actions  

Here here..

I can’t start my work day with out it now.

by SgtClueLs on Feb 7, 2011 7:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Oops, forgot to close my tags, haha.

by mpbMKE on Feb 8, 2011 12:04 PM CST up reply actions  

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