Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 8, 2011 8:45 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while making more jello.
We're starting to hit the point where things have been quiet for so long that the lack of news is newsworthy. There are only 13 arbitration-eligible players left in all of baseball, but the Brewers still have two of them: Rickie Weeks and Shaun Marcum. The Orioles are the only other team with two cases remaining.
Regardless of how his contract situation plays out, Marcum projects to be a member of one of the best Brewer pitching staffs in recent memory. Brewers Daily crunched the numbers and ranked the Brewers' rotation as the fourth best in baseball, behind the Phillies, Cardinals and Giants.
As I write this, the spring training countdown clock just went under eight days. It's time to start talking about players reporting early: John Axford is heading down to Maryvale on Saturday.
I probably wouldn't bring this up if it wasn't a slow news day, but I do think it's something worth considering briefly: The Rangers have a relatively ugly situation on their hands with infielder Michael Young, who's not interested in becoming a full time DH, says he was misled by the team and has requested a trade. He has eight teams to which he'd accept a trade and the Brewers aren't one of them, but he told Jayson Stark he'd consider others on a "case-to-case basis."
Clearly, the Brewers would be a long shot to add Young, but I think it might be worth thinking about. Young hasn't played shortstop since 2008, but only one of his last three seasons at the position was really all that bad:
| Season | UZR/150 |
| 2006 | 0.4 |
| 2007 | -10.3 |
| 2008 | -4.2 |
And obviously, Young would be a significant upgrade over the Brewers' other options offensively. He's a career .300/.347/.448 hitter, and has posted an OPS of .770 or better in seven of the last eight seasons, while also appearing in 150 or more games in seven of eight.
No matter who ends up acquiring Young, the Rangers will likely pay a fair portion of his salary: He's due $48 million over the next three years.
As I mentioned above, this isn't a deal that's likely to get done. But even if he's terrible defensively Young would present a significant upgrade over Yuniesky Betancourt, and whoever acquires him will be buying low.
In the minors:
- Ever wanted to work in the minor leagues? Can you live on ~$800/month? If you answered "yes" to both of those questions, then you might be a candidate to be a Minor League Video Intern for the Brewers. It sounds like a pretty cool job, aside from the pay.
- BrewerProspects.com has profiles of Dan Merklinger and D'Vontrey Richardson.
- Baseball America has a post on Mark Rogers, but it's subscriber-only.
Around baseball:
Diamondbacks: Signed catcher Robby Hammock to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Aaron Miles to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed pitcher David Riske to a minor league deal.
It's been a while since we've had a good opportunity to make fun of the NBA. Well, that's not actually true. But it's been a while since I've taken a good opportunity to make fun of the NBA. Jack Moore of NotGraphs takes a look at a brief Twitter spat between MLB and the league many of us avoid.
On this day in 1978, the Brewers re-acquired outfielder Gorman Thomas from the Rangers. Thomas had been a Brewer from 1973-76 before being traded away, and rejoined the team for the 1978-83 seasons before being traded away again. He would later return to finish his career as a Brewer in 1986.
With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to:
- Nashville Sound Chase Wright, who turns 28.
- 1986 and 1990 Brewer Edgar Diaz, who turns 47.
Also, yesterday I missed the birthday of 1957-60 Milwaukee Brave Juan Pizarro, who turned 74.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm putting my elbows back on the table.
Drink up.
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Projection update
Havent even read the mug yet…
But Baseball Prospectus put out its Pecota projection system yesterday. I use this as the base of the projections I have made here where I have thought that the Brewers were an 86 win true talent team.
The final version is not yet available, but it appears that so far they are projecting big regressions from Hart, Weeks and McGehee on the offensive side, and a bit of an upside surprise (from what I had) for Lucroy. They have Betancourt as replacement level.(0) and Gomez/Dickerson at 0.6.
The first release is usually not exactly the same as the print release in their annual so these numbers may change a bit. I know that this year they removed park factors from the analysis, so that may have a bit to do wih the numbers. Havent really looked deeply yet at the pitchers, but they have Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum all holding steady so far and Wolf at a 2.4 I believe.
Hopefully PECOTA is a little better than just using last year's numbers for this season.
I’m not sure how it ended up with only 0.6 WAR for Gomez/Dickerson though (assuming the numbers you’re listing are WAR).
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
They have a board just like we do here
An the article that talked about the release and included the spreadsheet…someone asked that question.
And the answer, which was a bit over my head said that the number they post is a weighted mean for WARP (WAR), ops, hr, etc….the thing they do is give a range where a player who performs at 100% has say a projected 7 WAR but at 10% maybe 1 WAR. The results lie along the bell curve, and the weighted mean is where they come up with their posted projection number.
So for instance, they only projected Weeks last year at I believe 3.3 WAR, but what he actually produced was in the 100% (outlier) range along the curve.
Ah, that's right, I forgot BP still uses their own WARP stat for some reason.
Since I’m only familiar with fWAR/rWAR, I find it hard to compare them though.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Projections on Weeks are practically worthless
If he stays healthy throughout the 2011 season, there’s precious little information to base any projections on, let alone regression. For all we know, now that he’s had one full season he could be marginally better in 2011. My feelings on Hart and his new approach to hitting in 2010 are well known so I would take a “big regression” as another stab in the dark. I could buy an argument on McGehee’s regression. It would be nice to see an improvement from Lucroy given that he was pulled up to the big leagues a little earlier than most would’ve liked.
Move Weeks and Hart up to their 2010 numbers rather than a big regression and I would think that true talent team bumps up at least 2 wins, right? I would take my chances with an 88 win true talent team in the NL Central where the top teams will be beating the stuffing out of each other all year, even with the Brewers’ ridiculously unbalanced schedule.
With the schedule we probably have to be about 3 games better true talent than the other teams just to break even.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I worked some back-of-the envelope on here once
I think it broke down to about 1 game, overall, between the Brewers and the Reds & Cardinals. Given how close the division race could be 1 game could make all the difference. And the earlier Win Curve FanPost on here suggests that one win might be worth a solid $5 million.
Yes
But its been that since the Greinke pick up. I am assuming that it will increase maybe even up to 90 or 91 once the final numbers are out for Pecota. I tend to overvalue pitching in my projections, but they have worked well so far, or relatively so.
so in the next couple months
you anticipate that prcota will change by more than 4 wins, such that your insulated method will improve by 4-5 wins?
not quite
I just have a methodoloy that I have used for the past 3 seasons and it is based on Pecota. The win total I have arrived at is based on last years results, so its just a starting off point. Pecota was just released yesterday for ’11 but I have noticed that the numbers the publish initially are not the ones they use in the annual or the website projections.
So when those final/web numbers are out, I will then use the method I use. It has been successful for me in determining the wins for the first place team, and wild card, and then it has been pretty good at helping to determine order in the standigns for me after that.
The 86 I have right now is based off of old projections, has nothing to do with actual 2011 Pecota. Its just been my base.
Hey, so
This Rob Neyer post seems to be implying that Pecota projects Braun to have the second highest WARP in all of baseball next year: http://www.sbnation.com/2011/2/8/1982916/shocking-news-pujols-still-no-1
Is that actually what Pecota says? Or is Neyer reading into it more? Is BPro more optimistic about his defense?
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
Yeah
They have him at 4.9. Havent really looked too deeply at the numbers as to where that comes from, but he is ranked 2nd behind Pujols (7.7).
Ok, I take back all the bad things I said about PECOTA ;)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
CAIRO was pretty big on Braun too
Braun 105 R/35 HR/108 RBI/16 SB/.294 ave
Gonzales 106/34/108/1/.305
Cabrera 99/34/119/4/.303
Ramirez 104/24/83/30/.301
If they all perform to those levels I’d be taking Braun as 2nd in any draft
Ready and able to turn any discussion into one about Russell Oles Branyan...
Second after Pujols obviously
Ready and able to turn any discussion into one about Russell Oles Branyan...
I cant remember the order
But there are quite a few pitchers ahead of Braun, something like 7 of them.
given that line
why braun over gonzales or cabrera? those two have larger avg’s and equivalent RBIs and roughly equal runs. Only real difference is SBs, and those are meaningless without CS info.
I guess it also boils down to walks/OBP.
A lot of fantasy leagues dont really account for defense though, do they?
They have Braun at above average D for this year. So that probably boosts the WAR a bit, but doesnt really translate much to the fantasy world.
I normally just do a standard 5x5 league
Given that, I’d probably say Braun’s SBs more than make up for lack of average. Plus I like to try to pick up guys who can steal a few bases on the side along the way rather than have to target speedy players later in the draft who have little to offer apart from SB and perhaps average. Just my personal preference and, if my success record has anything to say, it’s not necessarily a good one!
Ready and able to turn any discussion into one about Russell Oles Branyan...
We going all in?
The stache should at least talk with them and see if he can work something favorable out. I know its a lot of money to add to the books but it would be an instant and sharp upgrade at the position. With all the moaning about needing a better SS option, I don’t see how we can’t go for this. Although, with DM saying all the right things about Betancourt I don’t see this happing.
by rootsmaneuver on Feb 8, 2011 9:15 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Makes too much money
Not only that, but there are reports out there that there has been a deal in the works for months with the Rockies where he would wind up being their 2B.
I'd be curious to see his defense at 2B
He was -5.8 UZR last year, -9.6 the year before that at 3B.
His range numbers have been pretty bad the past few years, the past couple they have been similar to McGehee.
Add in that he hasn’t played 2B in 8 years – I’m not sure how much value he’d have at that position.
Get a ife broseph
Not that big.
Depending on how bad his defense is at 2B, he could approach league average/Carlos Gomez value pretty quickly. Not great if they’re paying him anything close to $16 million/year.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Perhaps
It’d have to be huge to make up for negative defense at 2B.
He’s a career .733 OPS hitter on the road, and had a .679 OPS on the road last year. Something to think about for any team trading for him.
Get a ife broseph
I'm implying that he's not that good at the plate
He’s certainly OK, I just wouldn’t be comfortable giving him too much money or trading anything of value to get him.
Get a ife broseph
Its kind of like the Obama or Giants methodology
I.e. make improvements in certain areas as opposed to huge leaps forward in one given area. I think Young could easily be a 2 to 3 WAR player as a bad defensive 2B. The Rockies had horrible output from 2B last year and I think the goal is to improve there any way that they can, such as what the Giants did with Aubrey Huff last year.
He could be?
I wouldn’t say “easily” especially at his age.
I see your point, but there is a big difference between the Giants picking up Huff for $3mm last year and getting Young and the 3 years and $48mm owed to him.
The unknowns of Young playing a new position and hitting outside of Texas would make me worried – not to mention that he’s 34 years old and likely on the decline.
Get a ife broseph
I wasnt considering cost
But you are right. Age could be key for him, but Coors Field never really hurt anyone’s bat. Kind of like the question posted below regarding Randy Wolf, he’s getting up there in age, doesnt have the cleanest health record, he could be a guy with similar concerns for a lot of teams.
Transitioning from Texas though would lessen the Coors Field impact wouldn’t it?
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Feb 8, 2011 12:57 PM CST up reply actions
he has not played SS in a few years
so how would Young just come in and play someone who has been playing there, yes he has a better bat. But he probably is the same Defensively as what we have now. Is that money worth the extra bat, I would rather put that money into a better Defensive SS or CF.
The defense in CF is not the problem
Hell that might be the only place where the defense isn’t the problem.
by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 8, 2011 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
i was thinking
Defense with a better bat. not one, that we wonder if he has Swiss Cheese for a bat. I would be happy if Gomez would bunt 1/5 of the time.
I think it was Dave Cameron who tweeted yesterday
Micheal Young hits like Carlos Beltran at home, and Macier Isturis on the road.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
Assuming they worked out the money somehow and Young cost Wolf, which would you rather have:
Yuniesky Betancourt + Randy Wolf, or Michael Young + Manny Parra/Mark Rogers?
I think I’d stick with Betancourt/Wolf.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 11:05 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you
The Brewers should have plenty of offense without Young. Since Young isn’t really an upgrade defensively at SS, the net result would be a downgrade of our rotation.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Feb 8, 2011 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Too bad its pay only
Luckily for me (or maybe not) I pay for it, but BP has another interesting piece trying to project who the next Jose Bautista might be. They have a stat they call True Average which weighs quality of pitchers faced, park factors, etc and Chris Dickerson makes this list. I believe it also weighs power numbers as well. Again, a lot of the math involved here is a bit over my head.
They project him increasing his TrAV by more than 50 points this year. The main candidates for the next Jose are guys like Dan Johnson of the Rays, Pablo Sandoval, Seth Smith, Chris Ianetta…..
Its all really interesting stuff, too bad its not free to the public. Really worth the subscription, or at least the monthly one for one month if you are really into fantasy baseball. I am not, but their projections have worked quite well for me in predicting the past few years.
WOW!
Dickerson is good for 54 HRs this year. That’s awesome! I might start playing fantasy baseball for that alone. They’re totally making the playoffs this year with their NL MVP CF. If BP successfully projects that, I’ll buy a subscription for life.
(Yes, I realize you probably mean guys that will see a peculiar jump in production. I like my interpretation more.)
It probably should be noted
That Dickerson’s TrAv last year was .208. I believe that this is close to their version of wOBA….
and yes, it is a measure of increase in production, not necessarily a prediction that he could hit 54 HR. You never know though, Brady Anderson did it once.
fire for not adding something to the contract that will never kick in?
think braun has 1 that kicks in w 164 reg season games?
Fair enough
I think there’s plenty of free resources out there. BP is good, and probably worth paying for, but it’s a bit overpriced, and way overpriced when you compare it to the free resources. It’s not that much better than the free alternatives to justify the (infinite) increase in cost.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I don't fault anyone for trying to make money
But I also don’t pay for anything.
Without spending a dime on Insider, or Baseball America, or BP, there’s so much content out there that reading and sorting it for the Mug is a 3-4 hour daily endeavor. Regardless of quality, I have a hard time justifying paying for more when the web already has more than I really need.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I see your point
But this is your job, I get the subscription for fun, and probably only take advantage of it about 60% of what I pay for.
I think if you did start to pay, and took more time to prepare the mug using those pay pieces, the mug and site becomes a much differernt animal. No need to fix what isnt broken.
Right
I operate under the assumption that most of my readers don’t pay for subscriptions either. I’ve never actually researched that, but I’d be surprised if it’s not true.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Insider really is pennies if you keep your eye out for good deals on ESPN the magazine
About twice a year, you can get a year of ESPN the Magazine for $5 or less. I like looking at Insider’s (In)accuscore game simulation pickcenter. Chad Millman’s Insider blog is quite fun, too. I’ll probably take a look at some of the NFL draft coverage, when that rolls around (for whatever good it will do as the NFL ain’t playing nuthin’ next season – not without replacement players, anyway). For $5 / year, it’s worth it to me.
I am, as mentioned ad nauseum, no more than a casual NFL fan
but I’ll be shocked if they don’t play next season.
I know everyone hates training camp and the preseason, so my expectation is they’ll work out a deal around August 1, do an abbreviated training camp, an abbreviated postseason and open the regular season right on time.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
The rhetoric is not at all promising
Pundits are split on whether there will be a lockout so it will be interesting to see it play out and then what the final compromise is in the end. You don’t have to be a football fan to recognize that money clouds judgment and mobs can act quite irrationally when they’re fed the right/wrong information and feel slighted.
I don’t think baseball can get drowned out by labor dispute talk so the postseason and World Series could get some extra attention this year.
In fact, it’s not better at all. PECOTA has been much, much worse than the multitude of free alternatives in the recent past. I find it kind of annoying that 1) they are completely opaque about all their metrics and refuse to conform to the rest of the sabermetrics community and 2) what they’re using isn’t even that good, yet they still continue to charge people for it.
It’s a free country though, and there are some useful things on BP.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
Except its not better
If what they say about the math holds true. The other systems like Zips and Marcels, etc just give you one number. Pecota gives you a weighted average that comes along with breakout, collapse, etc rates, to go along with a percentage chance that a player falls within the curve to reach a certain point.
So if you say that they were wrong on a player from ’10 but that their bell curve theory holds true that they reached the number as a percentage of success/outlier of their standards, etc, then I dont think they are off at all.
The people who have calculated their success only look at one aspect and forget that they give an entire range of possible outcomes for every player, and simply use a weighted mean to publish one number. The weighted mean number may be “off” but the outcomes are pretty much calculated along the curve and are published on the pay portion of the site.
But that's just hedging their bets, it doesn't mean they're any good at forecasting.
Any system is going to have a confidence interval (and Marcel actually lists the statistical confidence of each projection) that doesn’t make it a good system or its output meaningful.
PECOTA projections hit the mark to a significantly worse degree than other forecasting tools (even Marcel) and in 2009 I think it was as bad as just mirroring last year’s stats.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
Could you at least source your claims?
The original 2007 thread from tangotiger on projection schemes had PECOTA on top for pitching projections, for the most part and everyone bunched up for OPS projections. A lot of time has passed since 2007 so tweaks have probably been made to the systems.
I agree 100% with your point that having probability distribution doesn’t make a forecasting system special.
Here’s the article I was referring to.
FWIW, I think 2009 was the first year that Nate Silver was no longer doing the projections.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
Cool
I’m surprised to see so many of the systems do so well. I would imagine there are a lot of fantasy players that don’t really do anything more than look at the previous year stats and go with it. Talk about a disadvantage.
Thats exactly how MLB and CBS Sportsline creates their rankings
Not only that, but they dont really tell you about their methods for rankiing. Talk about flying blind.
Of course
That’s exactly what a projection is, the most likely outcome (or the 50% outcome, whatever you want to call it). No system pretends to know exactly what will happen, they’re projecting the most likely outcome. ZiPS does something similar.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
they just re-did PECOTA
I have no idea if it’s going to be more accurate than it used to be but it was glaringly evident that the whole system needed to be recoded.
I’ll probably end up subscribing to BP once I get a job again—I care little about projections but they appear to have assimilated a lot of the free bloggers I used to read.
Brewers sign Elvis Rubio from the DPL for $95K
17 years old, power hitting, corner OF.
Get a ife broseph
You really should have sent out the word to other Hitaniel fans to get him the #17 spot in prospect rankings
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Feb 8, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
At only $95K, you've got to assume he's nothing special (as of now)
Like the signing though – wish the Brewers did more in Latin America.
Get a ife broseph
Rubi-o! Rubi-o!
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions
Thoughts on Guzman
What do you guys think about Cristian Guzman and the idea of the Brewers chasing him to play SS. I wish the crew would have signed this guy over Kotsay. I don’t think Guzman solves any problems, but I think he would be a better solution.
I agree
I think Guzman would be better then what we have, about the same bat, better in the field. I think I have said it before, I would rather have a SS where we are getting a +WAR from his defense then his offense.
ok,
stand corrected, I did not know that. I did not look it up before I posted that. but I still want a + Defender in the Field and an average at the plate.
I'd settle for Barry Bonds hitting with Mark Belanger defense.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
No, I wasn't
actually trying to imply anyone. Just, if you’re going to list what you want, and not what’s realistically available, why not go crazy?
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I was saying what I want
I know its not out there most likely. I know its not on the team. I would like to see a up grade on defense.
is he really a up grade?
I don’t know what he did last year. Is he really better then what we have?
What i was thinking
I guess , I wanted to see the crew get a guy who could at least play ss and give Betancourt a run for his money. Plus Guzmans last 2 seasons were he played over 100 games he posted a .316 and .284 avg. I just wanted to entertain that thought for a bit
They've got Luis Cruz
who’s better than Betancourt defensively, and already on the team. If the brewers are counting on significant offensive production out of the SS role, they’re not going to get it. They’re better off going with the best glove.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Cruz vs. Bcourt
If you want purely defense than yeah go with cruz, but I think the potential offense that Bcourt can give you is worth the start i guess, I mean he did have a good amount of RBI’s on a bad team last year.
Well, you never know.
I think they’re offensively very similar, and I don’t anticipate getting (or needing) much offense out of the SS position. Odds are we’ll get about what we got last year.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
You're probably right
I will be keeping my fingers crossed that we get at least that. Let’s hope the SS woes prove us all wrong
The potential offense that Betancourt offers
Is replacement level. He has never posted an even average year at the plate. I think the best hope is that Betancourt doesnt suck as bad as he normally does, and that still just barely places him as a poor player. I dont know how in the heck he got that contract he has.
I think the danger with going wtih Cruz as the every day SS apart from the fact that you are paying a guy a lot of money to do something (the Suppan argument) is taht his offense is even worse.and he isnt really even a plus defender. If anything he is an average defender.
Both options are pretty bad for a playoff caliber/contending team.
RBI's
are really a worthless stat. They really are dependent on others getting on base, and timely hitting. Heck the Cubs signed a guy who hit 25 homeruns but averaged less then .200. Is that a good pick up. I dont think so, but the Cubs do. There was better players out there at the time and everything.
You can spin stats to make them say whatever you want.
If Guzman would play like he did in 2008, that would be great.
Unfortunately, it’s many times more likely that he plays like he did in 2009-2010 when he was ~replacement level.
Yuniesky Betancourt
has a offensive war of 1.5 last season. and he is average in the field according to Baseball Refernce
He's not average in the field according to anyone
-20 Runs saved below average isn’t good.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I was looking at baseball refence
and there saber says he was worth +3 runs in the field. Am I looking at a bad site? Is there a better free one?
ok.
I am still figuring some of this sabermetrics out, so if I am wrong point it out to me, so I can learn.
Just to clarify
A WAR of 2.0 is considered “average”.
B-Ref has his oWAR for last season at 1.5 and his dWAR at -0.2… both of which are considered “below average”.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
yes they did
I dont understand why average is 2.0 when a replacement player is 0 wins. But I do know that.
Average > Replacement
You probably should read up on WAR to understand how it’s calculated, which might help you understand. This is a good article to start with…
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
A replacement player is essentially whoever is on your bench or in your farm system.
An average major leaguer is calculated by not takign those minor leaguers into account. So Average is better than replacement.
In general, most replacements on any team are below average players. And that’s why they are replacements.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Most players in general on a team are below average
The distribution is skewed so that there’s fewer players above average than below, because the superstars outweigh the really bad players.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Overall, 2 is average
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
Good point
In his 6 seasons in MLB, his offense (according to B-Ref) has been above average for 3, average for 1 and below average for 2… while his defense has been below average the entire time (below replacement 4 of the seasons).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Fangraphs has UZR and DRS
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Let's at least see Betancourt step on the field before we crucify him please?
Odds are high that he’ll be bad, but can we at least wait until he’s played in a ST game?
Yeah
maybe he’ll randomly improve for no reason (see Casey McGehee), but I’m not optimistic.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Perhaps he got Lasik?
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Feb 8, 2011 1:16 PM CST up reply actions
If he did get Lasik...
I hope he didn’t go with the doctor who did Brian McCann’s eyes the first time.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I am not sure about that Albert Pujols guy.
He hasn’t played for the Brewers so I am not sure he is any good.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
First of all, your analogy is terrible as anyone who knows a thing about baseball knows Albert is one of the best hitters of all time
But let me purpose you a question, have you ever even seen ONE inning of Betancourt playing in the field?
As has been worn out here, he’s more than likely going to be bad, my only point is to let him at least get on the field before we start writing fanshots and blog articles about how bad he is.
so we can't trust those that have seen him?
you’re even more of a skeptic than i am
have you thought about a future in the sciences?
I'm just trying to prevent people from building up thoughts in their mind of a player they've no idea about
I’ll say it again, I’m sure he’ll be bad. It’s natural for us all to check his track record. I just want to see him on the field before I make a final judgment.
If you want people to soften their opinion on Yuni
you need to make a good argument about how he can be a benefit to our team like SRB did a while back instead of whining about giving him a chance to play like this is pee wee baseball.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
So me wanting to actually see what the guy can do is a terrible argument?
And how am I actually whining about it? I’d really like to know.
This guy came into the league as a defensive specialist with upside at the plate, and was good enough to earn a contract, then he clearly stopped caring and became a terrible baseball player because of it. He gained weight and lost all focus while in KC and I can’t say I totally blame him as the Royals have been awful. Maybe coming to Milwaukee is a wake up call and he’ll start focusing on his preparation and on the game a little bit more, and maybe Roenicke and his staff can get through to him to start playing defense better and giving an honest effort at the plate (OBP above .300).
If in the first week of ST we find out that isn’t happening, then fine, I’ll be the first one calling him all the expletives. I just want to see if he can at least be the league average player we need him to be out there. That’s his ceiling at this point, league average.
I’ve actually been a big advocate of Luis Cruz out there because even though you lose the power that Betancourt showed, you gain a good glove.
Either way, does it really matter? Does it need to become an argument? No, you’re going to vehemently hate Betancourt and nothings going to change it. So why bash me?
he started gaining weight and lost all focus
in Seattle
but you may not have been up on their chances that year either;)
And what does seeing someone play really make a difference anyway?
Who can watch even 20 games of a player and get a feel for his overall success/failure at the plate? Defense is even more difficult to pick up, because great range tends to mean great plays look relatively routine. that’s why we have statistics in the first place and Betancourt’s statistics are pretty poor.
For what it’s worth, I was watching from Greinke starts from 2009 which Betancourt was in the line up and I couldn’t really tell anything about his play.
I'm with you.
But this guy is chastising us for burying the guy without seeing him play (which most of us have), but supports the guy without seeing him play.
So he’s entitled to his opinion without any evidence, but those of us with an opposing view aren’t?
Twitterize me: @mykenk
Never said I supported him, I don't
Just want to see if he’s actually as bad as everyone thinks he is before I make a final judgment. That’s it. Not chastising anybody, just encouraging them to wait and see him play first.
I would love to see him play...
for the Cubs or Cardinals.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Bad
People aren’t just thinking he’s going to be bad this season because they don’t like the guy.
He’s been playing at the MLB level for six seasons. He’s been below replacement level defensively and offensively he’s been around average to above average. You don’t need to see a guy play first-hand to know that he’s not very good… stats and reports will back that up.
There’s nothing wrong with hoping that he’ll suddenly improve just by joining the Brewers, but you shouldn’t really be surprised when no one else shares that same optimism and are expecting that he’ll play like he has been.
I’m just trying to prevent people from building up thoughts in their mind of a player they’ve no idea about
Also, I’m sure people don’t appreciate being told that they have no idea what they’re talking about when every stat says that Betancourt isn’t a very good SS.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
All I'm saying is
People from an outside view look at Alcides Escobar’s stats and would say he’s a terrible player, but us in Milwaukee that have seen him first-hand know that he has all the talent in the world and should be a great defensive player, with room for improvement at the plate.
Betancourt is a completely different scenario, yes in terms of age and MLB service time, but the same principle applies.
offensively
i don’t think you could conclude that Escobar will improve – he’s only had about 1 good year in the minors. As to the defense, people that look at his season and a couple months (minus Counsell starts) in the majors may conclude that he’s not good, but as soon as they look at his minor league stats and scouting reports, they’d see that he’ll probably improve there.
With Betencourt, he’s been in the majors long enough to just judge him based on the majors.
Poor comparison
Why are you comparing guy with 690 PAs with someone who has 3057?
I would think it would be better if you found someone who played in MLB for six seasons at below average level then suddenly improved his seventh year.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Its more of the same
Didn’t you learn yet?
Maybe he’s BUCKS.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 9, 2011 6:05 PM CST up reply actions
I really don't care if you've been here longer or whatever you think you're entitled to.
You don’t know jack, and I’ve called you out on it, and you’re only response has been to name call like a child.
Sorry if I offend you for calling you out on your shit, maybe you should graduate to big boy diapers and give me an actual argument of why I’m so dumb.
In regards to this topic, it’s gone too far. Sorry that playing Devil’s Advocate on Brew Crew Ball gets peoples panties in a tizzy. I once again have to say. What is so wrong with wanting to see the guy play before I make a final decision? I know the stats, I know the stories, I know the scouting reports. My initial thoughts are he is a terrible player. I just want to see for myself if he’s as terrible as he’s made out to be. If he is, then fine. Nothing we can do about it. That’s Melvin’s guy right now, and we aren’t in any position to change it.
by jmeks23 on Feb 9, 2011 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I've got no problem with you wanting to wait to make your decision
but I think there’s a problem with you charging on here and telling us that we aren’t entitled to our own opinions on the matter.
I'm not saying you aren't entitled to your own opinion
Let’s at least see Betancourt step on the field before we crucify him please? Odds are high that he’ll be bad, but can we at least wait until he’s played in a ST game?
That’s my original comment. Not forcing anything on anybody, just asking if we can hold off? I’m not trying to force anything on anybody. I once again, have no idea how that simple comment becomes this whole shit storm, because it’s completely unnecessary. Seriously, you guys can keep questioning every comment I make, but I’m done with the topic.
by jmeks23 on Feb 9, 2011 11:11 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's beliveable.
He’s been a Royal & Mariner & has never faced the Brewers.
I don’t think I’ve seen him play outside of highlight clips.
Your whole argument is terrible.
We have no need to actually see a guy play when everything points to him not being good. Fans of 2 different teams, scouts, and the stats are all in agreement that the guy is not a good player. The best thing that can be said about him is that if he is limited to playing only against LHP he may have some value. Wait I didn’t see him play, what do I know?
As for not doing any fanshots, etc. are we just not supposed to talk about baseball? What do you expect?
He is a bad player and your argument just makes me hate him more.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
That's fine
Seriously, that’s fine if he’s the worst player to ever don a Brewers uniform, I just want to see it firsthand before I make my final judgment.
Very reasonable
I kind of feel the same way.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Feb 9, 2011 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Though reading Mykenk's response
Completely understand if other people want to bury the guy, he hasn’t been good.
Get a ife broseph
Why do you want to see a bad player play for the Brewers?
Do you also want to see the Brewers lose? If we can get a better player we should. There is no reason to hurt our team just to see the guy play.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
That's not really what he's saying
Yuni is going to play, it’s going to happen. The funny thing is people who think DM is going to make another move for a SS before the season starts.
That gives people the choice of:
1. Getting pissed about Yuni in February
2. Waiting to see him play before getting pissed.
He’s picking #2. I don’t see why this is an issue.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Feb 9, 2011 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's fine but he is also
telling us we shouldn’t talk about how bad Yuni has been and is likely to be.
As has been worn out here, he’s more than likely going to be bad, my only point is to let him at least get on the field before we start writing fanshots and blog articles about how bad he is.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
by cooper82 on Feb 9, 2011 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
But he had a lot of RBI's
So he should be pretty good
by backtocali on Feb 8, 2011 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Doug Melvin likes him.
He must be good.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Hey, I'm with you.
I think Betancourt is in for a very solid offensive season (for a shortstop). Although, even then his defense is going to do no favors to his overall value…
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 8, 2011 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
I think we all know he's going to have a season-ending injury by the end of April
and all of this arguing will be even more pointless than it is right now. It seems the only way to resolve this without someone getting hurt. Then they’ll bring up Cruz, platoon him with Counsell and we’ll all have forgotten about Yuni by June.
Any updated work on UZR?
I started pulling together UZR stats for the last 10 years or so to play around with UZR and UZR/150. We’ve had UZR for quite a few years now and there’s quite a bit more data now than the articles I was reading from 2008.
The oft-cited “1800 innings” seems like a pretty old rule of thumb and it was never entirely clear to me where 1800 innings came from as a measure for enough info to make a reasonable estimate of defensive ability.
Is anyone aware of recent updates to UZR or retrospectives on it with a larger data pool? I’m particularly curious about the variability one sees across seasons – something akin to the 1800 innings thought bubble.
I thought the most recent was 3 years and regress halfway to project going forward.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I can't really think of a particular study/article
But it’s best to think of a season of UZR as about 200 plate appearances. People think the numbers fluctuate wildly, but it’s crucial to remember 2 things:
1. It’s compared to average each year. A player could play the same and still come out better or worse in a particular year depending on how other players at his position played.
2. It’s compared to an average player, with 0 being average. People don’t say that OPS varies “wildly” in 200 PA increments, but they would if it were presented in terms of runs compared to average. If .780 OPS is average and a player puts up .720, .830, and .780 in 200 PA increments over 600 plate appearances, you wouldn’t say that it’s wild fluctuation, but if it were presented in terms of runs it’d look like -5, +5, and 0 over 3 years.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
for those of you at home today
There’s a Brewer classic on FSN, with a Corey Hart lost fly ball leading to a Hoffman blown save.
Even though the game is months old, I’m still finding myself yelling at the TV, because Hart was laughing about it after losing a fly ball that almost cost the Crew the game.
Then he lost another one.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I was watching that last night.
I didn’t remember it being as stressful as it was.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Feb 8, 2011 4:01 PM CST up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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