Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 9, 2011 9:30 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
Email
Print
Some things to read while struggling to write legibly.
The final trucks were loaded up yesterday and sent off to Maryvale, as the spring training countdown has reached the final days. The Official Site has video of the Racing Sausages loading the truck (with commentary from Craig Counsell), and Adam McCalvy has photos from the day.
Roque Mercedes wasn't loaded on the truck (I think), but he'll be in major league camp in Maryvale anyway: He cleared waivers this week and was assigned to Nashville, but received a non-roster invitation to big league camp anyway (FanShot). Toby Harrmann noted that he'll need to be added back to the 40-man roster by season's end or he'll be eligible for minor league free agency.
The Brewers' offseason work continues to draw praise from around the web: Jayson Stark gave the team an A- for their improvement effort. The Cubs (B) were the only other team in the Central to get anything better than a C+.
Prince Fielder's power draws a lot of attention, but his plate discipline also adds a lot to his value: Rich Lederer of The Baseball Analysts recently graphed major league hitters by their walk and strikeout rates, and Fielder's ability to draw a walk put him out in territory all by himself. Yuniesky Betancourt's inability to walk also left him in unique company.
If you're a fan of ballpark giveaways, keep your calendar handy: John Steinmiller said the Brewers plan to announce 2011's all-fan bobbleheads today.
In the minors:
- The Brewers made a small investment in the Dominican Republic yesterday, signing 17 year old outfielder Elvis Rubio for $95,000. This is likely the last we'll hear about him until/unless he reaches the states.
- Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker noticed a somewhat unfortunate comparison between Astros first baseman Brett Wallace and Mat Gamel.
- Brewersprospects.com has a profile of Cutter Dykstra.
Since yesterday was a slow news day, I took the opportunity to start a conversation on Michael Young. Most of you seem to agree with Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar, who said the Brewers should avoid Young at all costs. As it turns out, the Angels, Astros, A's, Cardinals, Reds, Rockies, Tigers and Twins aren't interested either. Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs has a look at some teams that could swap bad contracts for Young, but Jeff Sullivan of SBNation.com says "at this point, Young sticking with the Rangers is a very good and very awkward possibility."
I still think it's pretty likely Young will be moved, but I doubt the Rangers will get much for him anymore: Every team in baseball knows they need to move him and aren't getting many offers. I understand teams' reluctance to acquire him, but I still think someone will get a bargain once the Rangers get desperate enough to eat a fair portion of his salary.
Around baseball:
Giants: Signed pitcher Elmer Dessens to a minor league deal.
Rays: Designated outfielders Leslie Anderson and Justin Ruggiano for assignment.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Alfredo Aceves to a one year, $650,000 deal.
Today in former Brewers:
- Former Brewer farmhand David Welch threw a no-hitter this week in the Australian Winter League playoffs. It's his third career no-hitter: He combined with three other pitchers to throw one for Helena in 2005 and pitched one by himself in a seven inning game for Huntsville in 2007.
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a comparison between new Braves closer Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Jeffress.
- The B-Ref Blog has a list of the 20 major leaguers with the fewest singles per plate appearance (minimum 3000 PA), and Greg Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz, Jose Valentin, Gorman Thomas and Rob Deer are all on it.
- I'm surprised Russell Branyan wasn't on that list: John Sickels has a look at his career.
Today's most interesting graphics come via Kevin Lai at The Hardball Times, demonstrating just how much luck and circumstance is involved in determining if a fly ball will be a home run.
Here's today's baseball economics note: A Simple Kind of Fan compares baseball's payroll disparity to a slanted game of Monopoly.
You've got a few more days to kill before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, right? Maybe you'd be interested in dabbling in surnacronyms.
With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to 1996 Brewer Ramon Garcia, who turns 42.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to get back to my workout.
Drink up.
69 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Is it really a winter leauge if its summer in Australia?
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ
Hmmmm, interesting. Think the author of the Oatmeal hangs out here?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
concession contest
apologies if this is redundant, but both poutine and the racing sausage kebabs will be added to the park menu.
didn’t one of the BCBers submit poutine?
Yeah.
He posted a few days ago that poutine would be added to the menu, but apparently he didn’t actually “win” the contest.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
"The father of the boy who does not win"
Both get second place!
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Not sure if anyone is really following me here that much
But I had a chance to dive into my favorite Pecota numbers that were just published on Monday, and tweaked my prediction/projection for the 2011 season (at least as far as the NL Central goes).
I had a fan post after the Greinke pick up that said I felt the team was about an 86 win team. Now after getting a glimpse at the updated Pecota numbers for the coming year, my projection still has not changed at all as far as the Brewers are concerned.
I will probably tweak my numbers 3 more times before the season begins (and even more if personnel moves dictate it), and I still feel the Brewers will get closer to that 90 win mark. Even with that win total it may not be enough, as I still have the Reds at 90 wins, but the Cards have now moved up to 90 as well.
One of the tweaks I will do involves starting pitching, the other involves subtracting out minute contributions, and the last will be a once over. The place the Brewers will probably close the gap for me is in those first two adjustments.
And again, for what its worth, and the imperfections of Pecota, I only use them as a guide, and have been pretty successful at the very least predicting position in the standings with it, and W-L for the division leader.
For the Cardinals, are you thinking they underperformed last year?
Call me crazy, but I don’t think Berkman are Theriot are going to be worth 4 wins over their 2010 counterparts.
With regard to the Reds, I’m still not sold on them being a 90-win team this year. Are you assuming a bump in the Reds starting pitching staff to offset what must be regressions from Rolen and Votto? Even if Rolen manages to put up a 4 WAR year and Votto a 6 WAR year, that’s still 3 wins they “lose” over the 91-win team. Or did the Reds underperform their team last year, too?
Do the projections include expected pitching matchups? Maybe I’m overstating the effect, but the Reds and Cardinals offenses are now looking at trading in about 4-8 games against the likes of Bush and Parra for Greinke and Marcum. If Wolf can drop closer to career numbers, he’s going to be quite a bit better, too. Again, call me crazy, but I think that has to be worth 1 or 2 fewer projected wins for each of them.
Good points
But I dont run a model, I take numbers that are in place (projections) and alter to fit my purposes. I do the same thing for everything, so any alteration that is done is hopefully objective.
The Berkman number I agree is off and probably affects them by close to 2 wins. They have him penciled in at 1B and of course that isnt going to happen, but that is something that will most likely be addressed in my final adjustments.
The big thing that hurts the Brewer number is that they have projected a pretty big fall for both Hart and Weeks for next year, so much so that it probably loses them 3 games. If I were the one creating the projection I would or try to defend the numbers, but as I say, I am just using their projections as my base, and it has worked pretty well for me in the past.
And as far as I know, most of the projection systems run thousands of seasons through their programs, so that match up issue you talk about has to be addressed in there somewhere. As for the Reds, they have pretty nice improvements from almost the entire pitching staff and not a ton of regression from the offense, so that is how I can easily get to 90 wins for them. I still have those 3 to 4 adjustments to make of course, but so far its going to be quite difficult for me to project the Brewers as a 2011 playoff team given my methods. Still definitely contenders, but just short of a post season bid. But what do I know?
Ultimately, what you're saying is that the NL Central is going to be competitive
I mean, that’s nothing earth shattering, but it’s always nice to have a projection system that seems to agree with a general consensus. I mean, if you were predicting the Cubs and Astros to be fighting for second place behind the Red, I think you would have to go back to the blackboard.
Bobbleheads set
4/24 – Axford
5/22 – McGehee
6/12 – Greinke
7/10 – Hot Dog
8/14 – Counsell
9/25 – Wolf
I guess.
Glad they’re on sunday, so there’s no chance of me going anyway. #shruggggity.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
What about people who only go for the atmosphere and to drink?
Which accounts the majority of the crowd for every other game.
Get a ife broseph
I prefer the people who only go for the giveaways
They typically leave before the game starts.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I prefer the drunks
At least they stay at the stadium and spend more money. Without them, our payroll is still around 30 mil.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I'm not a fan of angry/belligerent drunks
The people who come only for giveaways don’t really affect me when I’m watching the game… unlike drunks.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Yeah I don't mind that
It also brings out more kids, who I will take over really drunk people.
You get a lot of bigger Brewer fans who always go to the bobblehead games because they are big collectors or whatever.
Get a ife broseph
So people who only go for bobbleheads sit in the decent seats that you do...
And affect your ability to enjoy the game? #inconsistent
Get a ife broseph
The bobbleheads will look nice in the Brewer themed mancave I plan to have oneday.
Along with a big screen tv, beer on tap, historic Brewer related newspaper stories framed on the wall, etc.
by KittenMittons on Feb 9, 2011 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hot Dog
I think they’ve given out the other sausages in the previous seasons, so this is just another one for the set.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Sausages
They already gave out the full set of 5 over the past 5 years. Hot Dog was given out in 2006. He was the first. He was given out on 4th of July and he has a finish line on his stand that he’s about to cross.
Apparently they are starting over or have a new set of sausages to do?
Also, how does Randy Wolf get a bobble and Yovani does not?
Also, how does Randy Wolf get a bobble and Yovani does not?
Because Ken Macha is racist
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Feb 9, 2011 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I didn't realize that the entire set had already been given out.
Bobbleheads sell tickets… there’s no denying that, so it’s very likely that they’re just releasing another set of sausages to keep people coming.
As far as Wolf getting one before Gallardo, that is an oddity. There are Gallardo bobbleheads available, but none have been given away at a game. Hell, Suppan and Kendall both had ones already.
At least they aren’t making one of Betancourt or Gomez.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
And Counsell's bobble will be wearing a Bierbrauer uniform
They’re also doing the Miller Lite Beer Vendor Bobble Head again this year on July 30th. AKA the stupidest bobble head ever.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I thought that said "beiberbrauer"
and thought that a bieber outfit would be more suitable on a Canadian player
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
I say BCB should be a Bieber free zone
any mention of the beebs gets flagged and a warning from kyle.
whos with me?
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ
by Jeo on Feb 9, 2011 5:26 PM CST up reply actions
Talkin' bout Bieber?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Feb 10, 2011 10:11 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Gamel vs Wallace
Wallace started 41 out of 51, and made an appearance in the field in 48 over two months. Gamel started 30 of 61 and made an appearance in the ‘field’ in 33(27 at 3B, 6 as DH) in 2009. Wallace had a 70 OPS+ as an everyday player, while Gamel had a 101 OPS+ primarily as a pinch hitter.
I’m not so worried that Gamel has shown he is over-matched at the major league level.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
BABIP was also mentioned
I believe BABIP’s in the minors are typically higher for players than in the majors. I could be wrong about that though.
They hit for similar power but Gamel has better OBP and they are similar players? Gamel had a much better walk rate. I don’t think they are as similar as they were made out to be.
I believe Gamel would have already been an everyday player if we didn’t already have all our corners covered. It is a bad time to be MLB ready as a corner guy for the Brewers.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Undocumented sausage
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 9, 2011 1:36 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
This marks me as a complete nerd
But I think there are two sets of sausages – one owned by Klements and one used by the Brewers.
If you look at Klements sausages, they have shorts on, as the Chorizo looks to in that picture.
Brewers sausages are just open at the bottom of the costume and do not have shorts or anything.
It would make sense that Klements’ sausages do not have racing numbers.
Ive noticed this in the past, of course now I went to Klements.com to see what they had on the site for proof and all their pics are of the sausages with the open circle bottom.
Maybe I made it all up.
Two sets
I think you’re right about that, but both are owned by the Brewers.
The ones without the numbers have shorts. I think those are the ones they use for promotional appearances including hanging outside of MP before games.
While the ones that have numbers and the open bottom are used mainly for racing (nothing to restrict leg movement).
I’m guessing that from time-to-time they use the racing costumes for promo appearances for whatever reason (other one is dirty/damaged, person wearing costume puts on the wrong one, etc).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Ross Ohlendorf wins arbitration with the Pirates
Not that it affects the Brewers really, but Ohlendorf won his arbitration hearing getting $2 million instead of the $1.4 million the Pirates offered. Ohlendorf’s ERA was 4.07, with a FIP of 4.44 and an xFIP 4.96 in 2010. Not an impressive pitcher. Maybe the Pirates really, really lowballed him, but it’s hard to see an informed arbitrator agreeing with Ohlendorf on anything. Then again, I wouldn’t put it past the Pirates to lowball anyone and everyone.
His comps would be the biggest thing they look at
I doubt they look at FIP or xFIP much at all when they do this. Also, I know that what they did the year before the arbitration hearing is given a lot of weight.
Last year he 4.07 ERA in 108 IP. Year before 3.92 in 176 IP.
For comparison, Manny Parra agreed to $1.2mm last year (similar to the Pirates offer). He had a terrible year going into arbitration with 6.36 ERA in 140 IP, and 4.39 in 166 IP the year before.
I’m just speculating, but it seems like the Pirates probably used a Manny Parra type comp, when Ohlendorf’s results were better.
Get a ife broseph
I know, that's why I said informed
ERA is fine and dandy, but it’s not a good measure of a pitcher’s ability. Presumably, a team would like to pay a pitcher according to his ability rather than his outcome. The same goes for Manny Parra in his 6.36 ERA season. It’s going to be a long time before arbitrators will get there, I’m sure, but it has to be frustrating for everyone involved.
Of course, no one gives a bonus to a sales guy that’s really good, but happened to draw a poor region for that year. I suppose in most areas of life people are paid on their results rather than their ability. Good for you Ohlendorf for being really lucky.
Good point
Arbitration is very outcome focused, while the FA market is very much ability focused.
There are better tools than ERA, but they are still in their relative infancy. I actually wonder if you asked a pitcher if he’d rather be paid based on his ERA or his FIP (after you explained what FIP was), what he would say.
Get a ife broseph
Relative infancy
Do you feel there’s substantial room for improvement in FIP and xFIP particularly? I would be interested to hear some of your speculation. I kind of feel a lot of the summary statistics for baseball has been pretty well mined out now.
I’m fairly confident that FIP will be replaced (or significantly tweaked) at some point in the next 10 years as the go-to stat for pitching.
Baseball has been around for 150+ years, the idea of a pitcher having little to no control of where the ball goes once its pitched has been around for 10. I’m sure they’ll find some way to improve the process in the next 10 years.
As for what exactly will be changed? I’m not a stats guy so couldn’t really tell you, I’m just sure they won’t continue to keep trying to find ways to judge a player’s true ability or contribution to producing/preventing runs.
Get a ife broseph
I think there's massive room for improvement in advanced metrics.
Something like FIP or xFIP is incredibly simplistic and, no offense to the excellent sabermetrics people around the web, but they’re not really statistics geniuses and the math they’re using is pretty basic.
I’m actually surprised every time I hear about an MLB front office using something like FIP. You’d think, given teams’ huge resources, they could come up with much more advanced in-house metrics. Maybe that’s the next phase of sabermetric evolution (especially with people like Sean Smith getting hired by MLB teams)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 9, 2011 7:15 PM CST up reply actions
I think there's been implication that defensive metrics are very advanced
I forgot where I read it, but I know there’s the feeling out there that teams have been on defensive metrics well ahead of the open community, which is as it should be, really. I would think pitching metrics are similar.
DM’s stat guys very well could have more insight into how Betancourt’s defense might not be (as) terrible given some combination of the pitching staff, Miller Park and the competition in the NL Central. Take into account his low BABIP and a depressed wOBA and Betancourt could be a “good enough” fit for a championship team.
Of course, sometimes simple numbers can still say a lot. Pythagorian W/L is pretty simple and yet it can be used to “predict” winning percentage remarkably well.
When competing for the postseason, though, baseball is about eking out just one more win than your competition and a sliver of statistical insight here or there could make that difference.
I don't know, $2 million for a guy with a FIP in the mid-4s seems sort of fair, doesn't it?
At least it appears they’ve progressed past using wins, given Ohlendorf’s 1-11 record last season.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 9, 2011 5:48 PM CST up reply actions
I hadn't considered the Wins part, so you're right that they're making progress
It does depend largely upon how much you trust xFIP, too. His FIP has actually been decreasing over time, though his xFIP has been consistently unimpressive.
Allright, since no one else is taking the bait...
Fat
Infielders
Eventually
Lose
Defensive
Effieciency and
Range
That's exactly what my little league coach told me...
don't forget to brush your teeth.
by Drew C on Feb 9, 2011 7:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Creator
Of
Universe,
Nebulae,
Stars,
Earth,
Life,
Lunchables
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Feb 9, 2011 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 9 recs
(Please)
Bring
Rings
And
Unanimous
NL MVP’s
by jmeks23 on Feb 9, 2011 7:35 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Brew Crew Ball
Related FanShots on Brew Crew Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
