What Happened to Nyjer Morgan?
From 2007-2009, Nyjer Morgan was a pretty valuable player. OK, he wasn’t valuable in the Ryan Braun or Zack Greinke sense of the word, but he got the job done. He played good defense, he hit .290-.300, and he had lightning quick speed on the base paths.
Over those years, he had been able to parlay that speed into a BABIP around .350. Sure, .350 is high, but for a player as fast as Morgan, it’s sustainable. But in 2010, his BABIP dipped 50 points, causing his average to dip roughly the same amount.
So what was the cause? It’s easy to write a sudden drop in BABIP off as bad luck, but you need to see if something else was going on.
His GB%, LD% and FB% were all in line with his career numbers. His IFFB% doubled, which could mean that he wasn’t hitting the ball on the nose due to a mechanical flaw in his swing. However, his Infield flies went from 2 to 4. That’s not exactly earth shattering.
So let’s look at his plate discipline. Below is a graph of his O-swing % and his O-Contact%. These are the rates at which he swings at pitches outside the strike zone, and at which he makes contact with pitches outside the strike zone.
First, notice his 2010 O-Swing% spiked by almost 5%. That’s a pretty significant change. Along with that, he made more contact with bad pitches. By swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, he’s not going to make as solid of contact. So, even if his contact rate was static, his BABIP would probably be negatively affected by a 5% increase in his O-Swing%. But he was not only swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making contact with a higher percentage of those swings.
Now, I don’t know if these increases would be enough to account for a 50 point decrease in BABIP, but they’re certainly a factor. So, if he wants to return his batting average to .300 as a Brewer, he’s going to need to lay off of pitches outside the zone.
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Worth mentioning
His 2010 xBABIP was .344 (via HBT), so even if there should have been an expected decrease in 2010, he was still well below where he should have been given his skill set. xBABIP predicted an xOBP of .348 last season.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Nice
So a good deal of it was just bad luck.
I really do love that OBP. I wonder if there will be any talk of batting him leadoff, if not this year, then how about once Prince leaves?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Assuming Morgan has a decent bounceback year, this wouldn't be bad:
1 Morgan
2 Braun
3 Weeks
4 Hart
5 McGehee
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I hadn't even looked at Morgan's contract, but he's under team control through 2014, nice!
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
if I'm moving Braun, I'd rather have him 3 and weeks 4.
Morgan
Hart
Braun
Weeks
McGehee
http://www.mlbsoup.com
You think Ryan will allow himself to bat 2nd?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 28, 2011 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Not that he has much say
I’d rather see 1.Weeks
2. Morgan
3. Braun
4. McGehee
5. Hart
Having that much speed at the top of the rotation would be great.
Nationwide Writer for SBNation's Nascar Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com)
"A ringing single for David Eckstein who, in my view, is the perfect size for an American male." -Bob Costas
what's with all the people wanting to bat Braun 3rd?
optimal lineups say you bat your 5th best (or so) there. So…assuming Hart doesn’t fall off a cliff this year, that might be McGehee.
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 28, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Optimal lineups ignore tangibles like protection.
I think there’s a lot to be said about that.
That being said, I’d like Braun 2nd and Weeks protecting him.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Maybe because a manager will never actually optimize a lineup like that.
Not anytime soon anyway. So it is rather pointless to actually talk about an optimized lineup.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Also
Lineup optimization is so negligible that it’s not worth getting into players’ heads with it. The 3rd spot is your best hitter, the 4th spot is your power hitter. As it was, is, and always shall be. Amen.
And Tony LaRussa will bat the pitcher 8th because he’s just that fucking smart.
by Marty McSuperFly on Mar 28, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually lineup optimization for a team like the Brewers who NEED a marginal win
is a very good idea. As the lineup might actually get that win for them.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 28, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not creating a marginal win
It’s gimmickry. You can’t improve a team by making the players uncomfortable, and changing their roles around because it’s been calculated that you might win one more game.
by Marty McSuperFly on Mar 28, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not familiar with this "optimal lineup" theory
Can you summarize?
I was under the impression that you want your best hitter in that spot so that when he gets up to the plate, he’ll either have a chance to drive in runs or extend the inning to give the next guy an AB (usually the power hitter).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It's a whole chapter in The Book
It boils down to making sure your best hitters hit as often as possible and with runners on base. I’d recommend the entire book, because it’s bursting with awesomesauce. They analyze many different situations and how to maximize value from batting order, and I’d probably screw it up entirely if I tried to explain any of it myself.
by Marty McSuperFly on Mar 28, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
If that's the case
wouldn’t putting Braun in the #3 spot meet that criteria?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It's not so simple
But, it’s hard to go wrong by putting your best hitter in the 3rd spot.
by Marty McSuperFly on Mar 28, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
essentially
the 2 out situations with bases empty outweigh the extra ABs through the season batting 3rd. it’s better to bat them 2nd.
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 28, 2011 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions
That's looking at it as glass half empty
Having two hitters ahead of him increases the chance that at least one runner will be on base when he comes to the plate.
Plus, with that type of strategy, you’d end up with a pretty big drop off in production in the bottom half of the lineup.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You really need to read the piece from "The Book"
there’s a lot of analysis that goes into it.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I totally need to read that cover to cover some day
but don’t have the time to spare at present. but if I continue to blog from work, perhaps soon I’ll have all the free time I could ever desire! (much less pay however)
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 29, 2011 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
That's the same boat I'm in.
The only reading I do at night usually involves Elmo.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
"The Napping House"
for us here. Occasionally some Dr. Suess (the Circus one)
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 29, 2011 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Your kids must be older
Most of the books we read have to have board pages otherwise they don’t last very long.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
not yet at the tearing-shit-up stage
so younger
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 29, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
however
fully in the slobbering all over everything stage
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 29, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/2/14/759668/lineup-construction
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
You're kidding that he doesn't have much say, right?
Both Yost and Macha failed at changing the order around because Prince and Ryan didn’t want to. And when they asked to move, the manager jumped.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 28, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions








































