Community Projections Summary

Position Players

Jonathan Lucroy: .259/.327/.387, 72% of playing time

1B Prince Fielder: .286/.409/.566, 97% of playing time

2B Rickie Weeks: .273/.366/.466, 85% of playing time

3B Casey McGehee: .280/.345/.464, 83% of playing time

SS Yuniesky Betancourt: .261/.296/.389, 62% of playing time at SS

LF Ryan Braun: .314/.384/.565, 91% of playing time

CF Carlos Gomez: .259/.305/.376, 70% of playing time in CF

RF Corey Hart: .276/.333/.488, 84% of playing time

Craig Counsell: .265/.335/.358, 27% of playing time at SS

Starting Pitchers

SP Zack Greinke: 200 IP, 3.12 ERA

SP Yovani Gallardo: 201 IP, 3.28 ERA

SP Shaun Marcum: 187 IP, 3.62 ERA

SP Randy Wolf: 196 IP, 4.2 ERA

SP Chris Narveson: 173 IP, 4.37 ERA

Relief Pitchers

RP John Axford: 64 IP, 3.15 ERA

RP Zach Braddock: 49 IP, 3.56 ERA

RP Latroy Hawkins: 48 IP, 3.9 ERA

RP Manny Parra: 68 IP, 4.26 ERA

RP Takashi Saito: 52 IP, 3.08 ERA

RP Kameron Loe: 71 IP, 3.84 ERA

A few assorted thoughts

  • I think Greinke and Gallardo could both be better than our projections, and Wolf and Narveson worse. They seem to be clustered toward the center, as it should be, because we're reflecting the middle of a distribution of possible outcomes. 
  • That bullpen is looking very solid. Usually there's a couple of guys who project near replacement level, which is about a 4.5 ERA, and the only guy we project above 4 is Parra, who I assume several people think will get some starts this year.
  • The Fielder line would be phenomenal. I did throw out the person who projected a .999 SLG, which I think is a bit excessive. 
  • Community Projections tend to have a significant amount of bias toward the players. Fangraphs has written a lot about correcting for that problem. Aside from possibly the starting pitchers and maybe Fielder, I think just about everything is quite realistic here. Good work everybody. 
  • I'll be stashing these and breaking them out in-season to see how current performance compares to how we projected the player before the year, and then after the season to compare us to the actual lines and some other projection systems. 
  • Any other observations, fire away in the comments. 
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