FanPost

The Past Week: Skill or Luck?


The Brewers were 5-1 in their last 6 games, let's see if they were lucky or good.

With 26 runs scored and 18 runs against, their pythagorean was 4.06-1.94, a full win below their actual record.

On offense, their BABIP was .345, but when you factor in their LD% of 24.1% (18% ~ avg) you would expect to see a BABIP of  .330... ( .300 + [.241 - .180] * [.700 - .200] ) So while the LD% may not be sustainable, it appears that their 4.33 runs per game was more skill than luck.

When pitching, thier BABIP against was .270 (.325 expected with a LD% of 23.5%)  and a HR/FB% of 5.7%  (9.5% ~ avg)  Looks like 3 runs per game was on the lucky side.

This quick analysis would suggest they played more like a .500 team over the past week.  Which isn't too bad considering it was against the Braves (a playoff contender) and Cubs (.500 ish?) and three big pieces of the team will be returning soon.

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