A Quick Thought On "Aggressiveness"
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 12, 2011 12:00 PM CDT
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PrintWe spent a lot of the offseason hearing that the Brewers were going to be more aggressive on the basepaths. One of the places that aggressiveness was expected to manifest itself was stolen bases. Nineteen different Brewers attempted a steal this spring, including three different catchers (George Kottaras, Wil Nieves and Mike Rivera).
As such, we entered the season with the expectation that the Brewers would be running more frequently. As it turns out, though, they haven't been. Through Sunday's game the Brewers have only attempted six steals as a team, and three of them came on Saturday and Sunday.
Six attempts in ten games puts the Brewers on pace to attempt 97 in 2011, which would actually be 9% less than the 107 they attempted last season. In fact, 97 would easily be the lowest total in the Miller Park era:
| Season | SB | CS | Attempts |
| 2010 | 81 | 26 | 107 |
| 2009 | 68 | 37 | 105 |
| 2008 | 108 | 38 | 146 |
| 2007 | 96 | 32 | 128 |
| 2006 | 71 | 37 | 108 |
| 2005 | 79 | 34 | 113 |
| 2004 | 138 | 40 | 178 |
| 2003 | 99 | 39 | 138 |
| 2002 | 94 | 50 | 144 |
| 2001 | 66 | 36 | 102 |
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Hit and runs
Does anyone track those? It does seem like we are doing a fair amount of that recently.
Getting thrown out at the plate
Doing a lot of that, which is a sign of aggressiveness. Always good to get thrown out at the plate for the first or second out! Shows that you have grit!
been wondering about this myself
have there been more “close plays” at the plate than usual? I’m sure our toss-out at the plate numbers are higher than normal by this time in the year, but I don’t know if we’re just 0.1 seconds off, or what.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Too many pre-game burritos
The only player brave enough to run full speed after that is on the DL right now.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Apr 12, 2011 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Obviously you've never been to Goghee to Go
yes, it’s Korean BBQ, but hot damn do they have phenomenal burritos
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
Html hint. You can type & ne. Without the space, you get &ne
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
do you indeed?
that’s magical
in fact, if I type “mag ical” without the space, it appears as “magical”
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
lol, well if I say "You can type &ne" he's going to have a tough time finding that on his keyboard.
But let’s not tell anyone about the magical “not closing your style tags and changing the whole site” thing.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Or does it not show up as the symbol on your browser?
hmmmm
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I think two things
1) it needs to be in the body (not subject, as html is stripped from there)
2) it needs to be followed by a semicolon
thusly ≠
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I use the preview button for anything htmltastic
it comes in handy
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah wasnt sure if it worked in preview
there were multiple fails happening
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ
thankfully
the blog doesn’t interpret that as an empty html tag
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
More plays at the plate
Also means that runners are getting themselves into a position to score, which is a good thing.
Considering we’re only at 10 games into the season, I don’t think it’s fair to say that they’re going to have more plays at the plate than in previous years.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
B.A. and Rock said as much
After talking to RR, they said he wants them going home on everything borderline.
Throws to home have to be very good (even on borderline decisions) and there are outfielders that have trouble hitting the cut-off man, let alone the catcher on the 3rd base side of home plate. With 2 outs, even if there’s only a 40% chance you’ll make it home, that’s a better bet than waiting for a base hit especially late in the batting order. They’r enot only being aggressive with 2 outs, I know, but it makes for an easy demonstration.
I would bet this works out a lot like 4th down in football. The stats say teams should be trying to get a first down far more often than they are, but the conventional wisdom is that a fresh set of downs isn’t worth the field position.
I like the aggressive plays at home plate. I just hope the Brewers players don’t get injured as a result.
Good call Kyle, have been thinking the same thing
We’ve all noticed the sac bunts, was interesting to see that last year they had 16 sac bunts by non-pitchers. This year they already have 5.
Get a ife broseph
The sac bunts have been highly questionable
I’d much prefer that RR look to steal bases over giving away outs with the bunt, particularly in the questionable situations he’s chosen. Seventh batter with no one out (Morgan), Nieves on deck? Bunt? Really? Yeah, let’s put all of the pressure of scoring a run on Wil Nieves and the pitcher.
by JScottLoomer on Apr 12, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Completely Agree
glass slippers???? I always drank out of a gold and ruby laced chalice that was served by Theodore, my butler.
by Brew Town Boozer on Apr 12, 2011 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd like to know the numbers or the math on Morgan's Saturday sac bunt in the 1st inning
Weeks gets on and with Morgan in the 2-hole he Sac bunts to get him to second ahead of Braun and Prince. Are we in agreement that this is better than having Morgan swing away, or is giving up an out to get the RISP increasing our Run-Expectancy that inning?
FanGraphs has that.
By bunting the runner over to second with no one out, Morgan increased the Brewer run expectancy from 0.54 to 0.93.
On paper that’s a pretty significant number, but that’s the average of all similar situations. I’d guess the actual value is much less when you consider the fact that he made an out in front of Braun and Fielder.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 12, 2011 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually, here's a number that probably better reflects the overall situation and decision:
While increasing the odds that the Brewers would score one run, Morgan’s bunt decreased their chances of winning from 58.4% to 56.6%.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 12, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd really like to maintain the possibility of having a runner on both.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Two consecutive hitters with .316 OB%
Will both reach safely in the same inning only 10% of the time.
But if one is already aboard
that goes up significantly I’m sure.
Probably to about 31.6% of the time
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
by GoGregGo on Apr 12, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Which means ~2/3 of the time
You have to find ways to score a runner from first instead of waiting for a 3-run HR.
My guess is that the sac bunt increases the chance of scoring one run but decreases the chances of scoring more than one run,
I think in general that is what happens when you sac bunt which is why it is a good late/close strategy but a terrible early game strategy.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Overconfidence
bred by 2 shutouts in the first 10 games? And ability of the team to crank homeruns from almost anywhere in the lineup?
Pretty much my thinking as well
Makes me cringe when they do it in the first inning
Get a ife broseph
I wish I could find the chart I had bookmarked. Lost it when my computer died.
It had the percentage that 1 run scored 2 runs scored and 3+ runs scored in every base/out state. Sac bunting basically shifts your run scoring from playing for a big inning to playing for one run.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Found it.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Here's the thing:
Base Outs 0 1 2 3 4 5+
1st 0 0.563 0.176 0.132 0.067 0.034 0.028
2nd 1 0.594 0.23 0.098 0.045 0.018 0.014
If you notice, the odds of scoring zero runs actually goes UP when you give up that out.
Yes, the odds of scoring that one run go up, but the odds of scoring ANY number of runs actually goes down. Sac bunts are almost never ever the right play.
Since formatting is difficult
The first bolded number is the odds of scoring zero runs with a runner on first and 0 outs. .563
The second bolded number is the odds of scoring zero runs with a man on 2nd and 1 out. .594
You have a 3% less chance of scoring a nonzero number of runs with the sac bunt.
Sac bunt
I think one instance where managers should go with it is when the odds of the batter making an out is high (e.g. pitcher coming up or poor batter). A sac bunt in that situation would not only avoid the DP, but also be more productive than a flyout or strikeout.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Are you sure about those numbers?
Just in a general situation? If the run expectancy went up .4, there’s no way it would hurt the win probability.
I think we're misinterpretting the RE numbers here
I think the RE number is what was expected BEFORE the play was made. As you can see below, Braun’s double would imply that the RE went down after hitting a double.
From what I can tell, the RE actually went down .22 by him sac bunting. With no outs, no one on based, the RE is .54. With no outs, man on 1st, it’s .93, and with 1 out and man on 2nd, it’s .71.
You see what I mean?
Also, how did I just miss your link? I’m stupid.
why not
you hurt the 2+ run probability
run expectancy is just for 1+
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
No, it's not.
It’s the average number of runs that will score from this given scenario. The run expectancy is greater than 1 with 0 outs, men on 2nd and 3rd.
I'm pretty sure you're reading that wrong
I believe it’s actually that Weeks increased the run expectancy from 0.54 to 0.93 by getting on first, and then Morgan actually lowered it to 0.71 by bunting him over but making the out. Fangraphs seems to lay that table out kind of strangely.
If I were Ryan Braun, I'd be really excited to be Ryan Braun, too.
Sorry, didn't see that cwolf already made this point
If I were Ryan Braun, I'd be really excited to be Ryan Braun, too.
Odds of scoring one run go up quite a bit, odds of scoring multiple runs goes way down
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Brief article on bunting
The break even point for an average hitter with 0 outs and a runner on first is 44%. Morgan’s average on bunts is only .401, but it’s not over a meaningful sample size. Considering how hot he is right now, and that I consider him an above average hitter (although in his career he is below average, based on OPS+), I probably would have had him swing in that situation.
Gomez bunting, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense. He is a good bunter in his career and is a well-below average, so it makes sense in a lot of situations.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
well-below average hitter*, oops
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
I didn't like it, Scooter...
I started doing the math on it, but ran out of patience. There are two reasons to hate bunting with Morgan there: 1) Weeks steals second with a high success rate, and 2) If Braun or Fielder do something other than get out, it is more likely they’ll get an extra base hit (which will likely score Weeks from first) or walk/HBP (which wouldn’t score him whether he’s on first or second) than they’ll get a single.
Maybe that’s flawed thinking… Still sorting that out… But here are the breakdowns:
Braun: 11.7% of XBH, 8.7% chance of walk/HBP, 16% chance of single
Fielder: 10.4% of XBH, 15% chance of walk/HBP, 14.5% chance of single
Not to mention the fact that you’re giving away an out (probably) and and Morgan has a 35%-ish chance of getting on base and he’s highly unlikely to hit into a double play.
by JScottLoomer on Apr 12, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
plus
it opens up first base for the opposition to choose to walk either braun or fielder…so unless you thought morgan was going to hit into a DP, you’re at worst even with the bunt scenario by having morgan swing away. Sacrificing in front of good hitters just seems counterproductive.
If he was trying to bunt for a hit, that’s a different matter.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 12, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't recall the specific play
but watching Morgan in general, it seems like he’s more often trying to bunt for a hit than just move someone over.
That would make a difference
Whatever is lost in one out vs. moving up the runner is made up in the chance he reaches safely. Unfortunately, some of those sacs were clearly not base hit attempts.
That's what I thought, too
At first i thought he was bunting for a base hit, but they were dropped in front of home plate instead of trying to get it past the pitcher on the 1st base line or down the third base line with the 3rd baseman back. It was a strange move.
That's a good point
It only becomes a sac bunt when Morgan doesn’t reach first safely.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
That's been the argument...
…that Morgan was trying to get on via a hit, but I remember at least two times when he showed bunt prior on other pitches prior to getting it down, thereby taking away element of surprise and making it much more of a “sacrifice.”
by JScottLoomer on Apr 12, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Me too, it keeps them honest
He’s such a terrible hitter that he can’t even bunt correctly, but just choking up on the bat for a bunt-length swing changes the set of outcomes for a fielder anticipating the play, and makes them think twice about playing back.
Devil's Advocate
RR didn’t have quite as much time to aggregate the marginal differences in the situations based on liklihood of success or failure. I think, given the set of circumstances, we could probably call it a wash between the two.
If the projection doesn't change by the end of April, I will put more thought into this.
Yeah they have had a lot of opportunities to steal, but they have only played against 5 (?) catchers. I would argue the projection might be skewed because of sample size.
But then again, I do not pretend to be a scout so I have no idea how good the arms of the opposing catchers are.
Weeks, Braun, Morgan and Gomez are probably the only guys who should be trying to steal.
How often have those guys been on first base?
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Here you go...
Weeks – 10
Braun – 15
Morgan – 8
Gomez – 7
This is just how many times these guys have been on 1B. It does not take into consideration how many outs there were or if there was someone on 2B.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Not sure
but I think McCann and Soto are both rated pretty well as throwing catchers. What about the pitchers they’ve faced? I know Tommy Hanson has a good move, anybody else?
There have also been a couple of pickoffs, so I dont know where to count them...
by BrewCrewBrian on Apr 12, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I should have been more clear.
I meant that I don’t know how we should interpret them with respect to aggressiveness on the base baths. (I know that they are usually not a CS statistically)
I am almost tempted to count them as an attempted steal when projecting the number of steals for the season, but don’t think doing that would accurately reflect reality either.
by BrewCrewBrian on Apr 12, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I think they're counted as stupidity.
Seriously, why does Carlos Gomez need a 20 foot lead? He’s going to steal second if he tries with a five foot lead.
I think this is a little flawed
In order to properly compared “aggressiveness”, you would really have to compare attempts against a different metric that measured potential attempts — not games.
For instance, maybe the percentage of SB attempts/times an able player was in a “steal situation”. An able player would have loosely be limited to Braun, Gomez, Nyjer, and Weeks. A “steal situation” would loosely be defined as a time a player is on first or second and is not blocked in front by a “non-able” player.
These are all pretty soft metrics, but I think that would give a pretty good idea. Very quickly, it looks like we have 78 hits through 10 games this year, compared to 98 hits in the same span last year. You would think that would lead to less steal situations this year, but idk, I would have to look more closely (when I’m not on the clock).
by LosinCatmansLove on Apr 12, 2011 1:21 PM CDT reply actions
Of course its flawed
Its just an observation of what has happened so far and something to consider in light of all the preseason talk from RR about being aggressive.
Get a ife broseph
ok?
I never prefaced what I said with “I don’t understand what he is trying to do.”
by LosinCatmansLove on Apr 12, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
Watching the games and the overall aggressiveness of the players, I would say is up. I feel that we are more aggressive than last year even though the stats don’t support it. By the end of the year I think our runs and stolen bases will be up due to an overall aggressiveness on the base paths.
We will see singles turned into doubles and people scoring from first. It may not show up on the stat sheet right now, but I think RR is taking us in the right direction
by Braunmon on Apr 12, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think the threat of stealing is helpful even if it isn't a statistical increase in actual attempts
and I think RR approached spring training and his press conferences with that in mind. Also, if you steal at predictable times, it is easy for the defense/pitcher to be prepared, so mixing it up helps that as well.
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Apr 12, 2011 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Small Sample Size...
As much as I hate when others play this card, rarely is it more appropriate than in this instance. The Brewers have only faced a total of 4-5 different catchers from 3 different teams thus far. So obviously you are dealing with a small sample size. Stealing bases is a function of the runner, the game situation, the catcher, the pitcher, the players that hit behind the player that might be stealing the base, and the ability of a team to generate runs w/o the SB.
The Brewers seem to have a stars/scrubs approach to roster construction. Before the 3-4-and 5 hitters, the Crew have a 1 that historically has an OBP of about .330, and a . couple of 2’s with historical OBPs of about .300. Following the heart of the order, you have a black hole with 3 hitters that are essentially at or below replacement level.
Why would you risk losing ducks on the pond for your 3,4, and 5 by trying to steal, and potentially losing a runner?
by 07_08_World Champs on Apr 12, 2011 2:22 PM CDT reply actions
I think we'll see Gomez stealing a lot more when Hart comes back
Gomez will be in 6th or 7th and has a reason to steal 2nd and 3rd practically every time he’s on base.
In the meantime, it often makes sense for a good basestealer to try to take 2nd with 1 out almost regardless of who’s at the plate or on-deck.
Clarification needed
Before the 3-4-and 5 hitters, the Crew have a 1 that historically has an OBP of about .330, and a . couple of 2’s with historical OBPs of about .300.
Weeks’ OBP is much higher than .330. In fact, the only time he’s had an OBP below .330 was 2003 when he had only 14 PAs.
Also, regarding the #2s… I’m guessing one is Gomez (career OBP of .293). Who’s the other one?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
The other number 2 is usually Morgan
Not looking it up, but I think his OBP is closer to .350
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Right
That’s why I asked for clarification… because there’s no one else who has been in the #2 spot who has a career OBP around .300.
Morgan’s is .347.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
puzzled by the username
blog memberships: cubs and here
baseball winner in 2007: red sox. 2008: phillies
2008 superbowl: ny giants, 2009: pitts, 2007: colts
should I be looking at hockey or basketball?
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 13, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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