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Thursday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read for the right reasons.

Hopefully this trend holds: Howie Magner has christened the 2011 Brewers "team shutout" after they held an opponent scoreless for the third time in eleven games in last night's win over the Pirates. This time Shaun Marcum was the starter, and he needed just 94 pitches to get through seven innings, allowing four hits with just one walk and striking out four. Tom Haudricourt said this is the Marcum the Brewers expected.

This is another small sample size stat, but I think it's worth noting: The 2010 Brewers only shut out their opponents seven times all season. The 2011 Brewers are already almost halfway there.

Even on a day where he didn't start, Nyjer Morgan found a way to help the team win last night: He pinch ran for Mark Kotsay and scored a run by knocking the ball away from Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit. As you might expect, the @Tony_Plush Twitter feed has more on the collision, along with some rainout haiku.

It'll be interesting to see how the Brewers handle Morgan and Carlos Gomez once Corey Hart returns. Trenni Kusnierek of WTMJ says she's "worried that pride will get in the way of making the right decision" and the Brewers will continue to play Gomez even if Morgan turns out to be a better option.

Last night's only negative might have been Zach Braddock's performance. Braddock was unable to get three outs in the eighth and Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar noted that his velocity was down into the upper 80's. Braddock has a pretty extensive injury history, so this is a pretty significant red flag.

Other notes from the field:

  • The Brewers scored six runs last night, tying a season high, for the third straight game.
  • Shaun Marcum, Prince Fielder and Jonathan Lucroy are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
  • Prince Fielder took 22.62 seconds to round the bases following his three run homer.
  • After averaging 27,963 fans over their first four home games, the Pirates drew just 8755 to PNC Park last night.
  • Tuesday's rainout has been rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on Monday, August 22 (FanShot).
  • Yesterday was the anniversary of Bob Uecker's first major league plate appearance, and he remembers it fondly.

The Pirates made a roster move after the game last night, activating catcher Chris Snyder off the DL and sending catcher Jason Jaramillo down to AAA. Jaramillo, a Racine native, hadn't appeared in a game in the series.

Because of the rainout this week the Brewers are missing an opportunity to face our old friend Jeff Karstens. Karstens was scheduled to pitch tonight but will be available out of the bullpen instead. Paul Maholm will start tonight's game.

There will be a fair number of us holding our breath tonight as Randy Wolf returns to the mound after a couple of pretty poor outings to start the season. Brewers Daily has some numbers that would suggest that Wolf has been unlucky in the early going and is due to bounce back. Tom Singer of MLB.com has a preview of tonight's contest.

While Wolf looks to overcome his slow start tonight, Chris Narveson will look to keep his hot start going tomorrow. Call to the Pen has a look at Narveson's early performances and finds cause for optimism going forward.

If you know a shortstop that's looking for work, now might be a good time to call the Brewer organization. With both Zelous Wheeler and Edwin Maysonet missing time, the Brewers are playing veteran Anderson Machado at short in Nashville and looking outside the organization to add some depth at the position (FanShot).

Speaking of injuries: Corey Hart took batting practice on Tuesday but still isn't expected to report to his rehab assignment with Nashville until this weekend. Apparently that trip takes a long time to pack for.

In the minors:

  • Outfielder Jeremy Reed, designated for assignment earlier in the week, has accepted his assignment to Nashville (FanShot).
  • John Sickels of Minor League Ball had some nice things to say about Huntsville pitcher Michael Fiers yesterday: He thinks Fiers could eventually be a #5 starter or long reliever in the majors.
  • On the field the affiliates went 3-1 last night, led by Mark Rogers' 5.1 scoreless innings in Nashville's 6-1 win over Oklahoma City. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
  • LaTroy Hawkins pitched a scoreless inning for Brevard County last night, allowing one hit but nothing else.

Hawkins, by the way, is one of just five players selected in the 1991 draft that are still active in the majors. He was selected by the Twins in the seventh round. Former Brewer Mike Cameron (selected by the White Sox in the 18th round) is another.

Obviously, winning would help the Brewers towards this goal: David Simmons of The Biz of Baseball says the Brewers will still sell at least three million tickets in 2011.

What're you doing today, around 3:40? If the answer was "nothing," "nothing important" or "nothing I'll get fired for not doing," then you should take a moment to tune into The Big 1070 in Madison to hear me talk Brewers with Mike Heller and Phil Dawson.

Around baseball:

Cardinals: Placed pitcher Brian Tallet on the DL with a broken right hand.
Mets: Reliever Blaine Boyer rejected an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.

Around the NL Central:

  • The Reds lost 3-2 to the Padres last night on a walkoff.
  • The Cubs beat the Astros 9-5.
  • The Cardinals lost to the Diamondbacks 15-5.

Here's today's NL Central standings:

Team W L GB
Reds 8 4 --
Brewers 6 5 1.5
Cubs 6 6 2
Pirates 5 6 2.5
Cardinals 5 7 3
Astros 3 9 5

Here's something to keep an eye on over the weekend: Phillies slugger Ryan Howard left last night's game after being hit on the wrist by a pitch. X-rays are negative, but he told reporters the joint was sore and stiff following the game. The Brewers are scheduled to open a three game series with Howard and the Phillies on Monday.

Today in former Brewers:

I must admit, after an offseason of making fun of him we haven't seen our first major incident involving umpire Joe West in 2011. While West is off directing air traffic, fellow umpire Bob Davidson is drawing attention for confrontational behavior that led to Arizona manager Kirk Gibson's first career ejection.

Here's a reminder that every game, no matter how small, is important to someone: Royals Review has a look at the impact of this week's Mariners-Royals series on the citizens of tiny Grass Creek, Wyoming.

Also, if you only watch one video recap of a silly minor league promotion on this fine day, make sure it's Benjamin Hill's video of the West Michigan Whitecaps' tribute to the most boring day.

Now, if you'll excuse me, my game is paused.

Drink up.

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Tony Plush Twitter URLs

have a rogue %21 in them after twitter.com

by SgtClueLs on Apr 14, 2011 9:50 AM CDT reply actions  

Fixed, thanks for the heads up.

I feel like I spend a disproportionate amount of time lately trying to figure out how to make Twitter work.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 14, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Braddock looked like he was pitching with a coathanger in his shirt.

Dude didn’t look comfortable at all.

I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.

by Rubie Q on Apr 14, 2011 9:52 AM CDT reply actions  

anything else would be uncivilized

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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by Hyatt on Apr 14, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

Or maybe it was Rock

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

That seems like something Rock would say

If he wasn’t really warmed up, he shouldn’t have been in the game. It wasn’t a situation where they needed him to warm up in a hurry.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 14, 2011 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

If he couldn’t get loose, I’d hope we’d lift him before he throws 20 pitches.

I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.

by Rubie Q on Apr 14, 2011 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

Rock

That guy, I’ll tell ya’… I appreciate a homer, but I’d really just like it if he called a guy out once in a while. Ueck does it, and he’s the homer all other homers aspire to be.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

No.

He was using the weather as a cop-out excuse. This is a less glaring example, but the way he glows about Mark Kotsay from time to time, and how he always has an excuse for Betancourt’s obvious defensive lethargy have been grinding on me.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is it really that surprising or unusual to you?

There aren’t too many TV announcers who criticize their own players during broadcasts.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not surprising.

Just something that would be refreshing to hear. And I think a lot of guys choose silence over making excuses for poor performance.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Watch .tv or Extra Innings sometime.

You’ll have a new appreication for BA & Rock.

by klwillis45 on Apr 14, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

BA's gotten better

but he still puts me to sleep. You’re right, though, generally speaking TV commentary is at an all-time low, in terms of quality. I blame expansion, haha.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Did Khalil Greene retire?

Might be an interesting flier at SS if he’s interested in a minor league deal. IIRC his career was kind of derailed by reported social anxiety, so maybe Greinke could give him some advice.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 14, 2011 10:05 AM CDT reply actions  

Maybe Tony Plush then.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 14, 2011 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Tony Plush will take Greinke and Green under his wing.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

He didn't officially retire

but I’m not sure if he’s interested in playing right now. He signed with the Rangers last year, but ended up not reporting to ST and not playing at all last season.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

the cardinals unfortunately won last night

15-5, not lost.

i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!

by sowingwildoats on Apr 14, 2011 10:13 AM CDT reply actions  

did Pujols finally hit a few

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on Apr 14, 2011 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think you mean this

Sad Trombone

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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by Hyatt on Apr 14, 2011 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Cards fans got all excitied about the outburst

And I dutifully reminded them how far beating the Pirates 20-0 got us last year.

by nullacct on Apr 14, 2011 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

But it was fun.

It was better when Craig Counsell hit a grand slam on them. (From the files of “Say, do you remember when…”)

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ugh, so much red...I don't know how they can look at that screen.

I like the blue much better.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

That was funny

I thought for sure that they would’ve jumped all over you.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

8755 fans at the Pirates game

18,787 fans at the Penguins game 3 miles away.

this city knows where its priorities are, I know I didnt watch last nights game because I was watching the Pens. hell, I dont even know what channel the game was on last night in Pittsburgh.

all in all, going to tonights game, so pumped.

by torts on Apr 14, 2011 10:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Pirates weren't on TV at all,

Brewers were on WMLW. Advantage : Pirates.

by KRaw on Apr 14, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Winner

Pittsburgh Residents

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
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by Hyatt on Apr 14, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rec'd

For effort

"Special teams means special times, bros"

by schmita91 on Apr 14, 2011 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

In an effort to support Randy Wolf for his start tonight.

I present to you…wolf pack.

Randy, may you (please?) strike fear into the hearts of all the hapless victims, cursed to play in your game.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 10:34 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

That's it.

Season’s over. Pack it up, we’re done. I told you so. Everything is bad. Prince can’t hit, Braun’s overrated, and Axford’s a fraud.

Hm… What other gross overreactions were people making a week ago?

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 11:18 AM CDT reply actions  

The nature of baseball

Overreact to losing streaks, overreact to winning streaks. It happens.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 14, 2011 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

exactly

See also: excitement about small sample sizes, with caveats, even when one knows better. Remember that year Jason Kendall started out batting .470?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 11:24 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Kendall

Really, I thought he had a BA in the range of Pena.

by bugenj222 on Apr 14, 2011 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Reds are going to win the division by 20 games

Though that was said by the experts on ESPN, not us yokels on the interwebs.

by Brew Angel on Apr 14, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

umm

that is the same thing. I would believe yokels on the interwebs before ESPN.

I just tune in for the B-SOX’s are going to being about the end of the world news, and how A-roid, and Jeter go on man dates episodes

by bugenj222 on Apr 14, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also

we’re tied for first in the Wild Card right now. Too soon for that? Never.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'll draw a line there.

Unless you’re in a division with a juggernaut, it’s too early to start thinking about the Wild Card. Maybe after the All Star break.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 14, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Touche.

In that bizarro world, everyone should talk about the Wild Card.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 14, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

More than fair.

Since I only mentioned it to be a jackass, haha.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Say what you will, but Brewers were in a giant hole

It took an equally unlikely streak of 6 out of 7 wins to get out of it. From a conditional probability standpoint, the Brewers were about 40-50% less likely to make the postseason at 0-4 than they were at 0-0. Worrying about a 40%-50% after a week is not “a gross overreaction.”

They were never as bad as the 0-4 indicated, but a lot of the flaws that caused them to be 0-4 still exist. The Brewers offense is still extremely biased toward the top 5 hitters moreso than most contending teams. Once Hart is back and in his 2010 form, that will even out, possibly even to league average. Until then, the Brewers all but NEED a good game from at least 2 of Weeks, Braun, Fielder and McGehee (and McGehee hasn’t been anything special so you could almost amend the statement to 2 of Weeks, Braun and Fielder).

Fielder has 14 RBI on the season all of them coming in the last 6 games. Fielder will not be averaging 2.3 RBI / game for the rest of the year. When Fielder has an inevitable cold streak, the Brewers are going to struggle to score runs as an entire team.

0-4 wasn’t a true representation of their talent, but neither is winning 6 of 7.

by ecocd on Apr 14, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

"0-4 wasn’t a true representation of their talent, but neither is winning 6 of 7"

could be generalized by saying “4 to 7 games samples are very rarely representative of a team’s talent/production.”

by MillerParkSouth on Apr 14, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

mixing types of analysis, I assume

the 0-4 rate of making the playoffs is based on empirical data (how many teams actually made the playoffs after going 0-4). The 0-0 rate was based on our pre-season odds, which was I’m sure much greater than 1/6+(1/(16-3))

the 0-4 rate may be a bit low, as I’m not sure if it’s adjusted for the number of teams that actually were eligible to make the playoffs, which historically was only 2 teams per league, whereas it is now 4.

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was pretty crude probability calculations

Take a team that is good enough to win 90 games out of 162, only now that 0.556 team only has 158 games to accomplish it. Trying to recreate it, it looks like a 25% decrease in the chance of winning 90 games. I’d still panic at a 25% decrease in only 4 games.

If I had done it empirically, it probably would’ve been substantially worse since only the Reds accomplished it ove rthe last 20 years or something. 25% of the teams at 0-0 make it to the post-season. 1 team out of n teams to have started 0-4 have made it.

According to the more sophisticated Baseball Prospectus Playoff projections the Brewers increased their playoff changes from 28.8% to 34.0% – an 18% jump when moving from 2-4 to 6-5. I’m not sure where those numbers were from 0-0 to 0-4, but they were probably pretty ugly.

by ecocd on Apr 14, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Problem I have with this reasoning

If a team is projected as a .556 talent for the year they will have ebbs and flows throughout the year. 4 games is a very small sample size. And they only dropped 2 games off the pace after 4 (should have won 2) and overachieved in the last 7.

by Junked on Apr 14, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I was going to post something like this (granted, probably not as clear and concise)

but the more I thought about it, I can see where he’s coming from.

It’s a fact that only one team in the past 20 years has ever started out 0-4 and went to the playoffs. That’s really all that the probability percentage he’s quoted in indicating. Obviously, as more games are played and the season progresses, the probability will change.

Something I noticed about the B-P Playoff Projections page is that they have the Brewers finishing the season with a .518 winning percentage and finishing third in the NL Central. I don’t think the 34% playoff chance is really specific to the Brewers… it’s really an indicator that given the forecasted standings and win percentages of all the teams in the NL, a team finishing third in the NL Central with a .518 winning percentage will make the playoffs 34% of the time.

Heck, they are still predicting that the Red Sox will finish with over 90+ wins and end up in second place, despite their current struggles.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

BTW

Despite understanding where his numbers are coming from, I do not give them much weight. Remember, the past is no guarantee of the future.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

except
a team finishing third in the NL Central with a .518 winning percentage will make the playoffs 34% of the time.

I am pretty sure a team regardless of winning percentage will make the playoffs 0% of the time if they finish third in their division. (This statement becomes invalid if playoff format is changed)

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by Jeo on Apr 14, 2011 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good point

I think I misinterpreted they way they calculated their numbers.

According to their glossary, they are defining Playoff Percentage as…

The percentage of times a team makes the playoffs – either through winning their division or their league’s Wild Card – in the simulated seasons.

I guess the 34% really says that in their simulations, the Brewers made it into the playoffs 34% of the time.

On the plus side, it appears that they think that 90 wins is not needed to win the NL Central.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

if you start out as a .556 team with 162 games to play

and you start out without any wins with 158 to go (but the same winning percentage in remaining games), you go from a team projected to win 90.1 games to a team projected to win 87.8 games. so, 2.3 game drop by the end of the season.

you wouldn’t be expected to have a “flow” and “make up” for the losses. In fact, the losses probably get you to re-evaluate the true talent level and make you fall short a bit further (say a 4 game drop by season’s end)

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is what I totally disagree with

It is not flipping coins. It is human beings that are playing a game where any number of factors change on a day to day basis. If the Brewers were a .556 team with the injured players playing everyday then they should have a worse record than they currently do. If they have exceeded that mark and are getting players back shouldn’t the expectation increase?

by Junked on Apr 14, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

true talent

I doubt we were a .556 team prior to all the injuries in ST.

after the injuries, cards probably went down a bunch and we went down marginally. Lets say we were .543 before and .535 after. Meaning, after Hart and Greinke come back, knowing that the Cards starter is out, we maybe shift from a .535 to a .548 true talent.

So, you’re right…we’re not stuck at the .535 all season, but it does affect us from those games. And like I said before, just because we lose a couple games doesn’t mean we’re pre-destined to win those back (without losing more in the process).

Right now we’re slightly above our projected record (BP has them at .518; we’re at .545). but I’m going with .547 on the season, assuming no net impact of more injuries vs other clubs. Regardless of the projection system you use, losing the first 4 games at the start of the season obligately diminishes your playoff chances. Yes, there are 158 more games to play, but things don’t magically even out. Say you flip a non-loaded coin 10x and get 6 heads and 4 tails. If you flip it another 10 times you don’t expect to get 4 heads and 6 tails to “even things out.” You expect approximately 5 of each, although due to luck you could get 4/6 or 6/4 equally as frequently as each other (but individually less often than 5/5) or 3/7 7/3 with lower probability, etc. All you’re doing is “loading” your coin flip so heads comes up .550 or so of the time (okay…it’s a little bit more complicated than that…if you have a true talent .550 team going up against a true talent .450 team they win more (~.560?) than TT .550 would against TT .500 (.550))

long ass story short and answering your question directly: yes, if they are a .556 true talent team with injured players, then of course they’ll be a even better true talent team if they add back those players at 100%. If they just “luck into” a .556 record though, there’s no reason to expect that when the healthy players get back, they’ll win at a higher than .556 pace and they might even win less often than that.

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

2 cents

I would say that’s why, generally, you will see people give a range in wins: ‘the Brewers are a 85-89 win team’ or ‘the Brewers are an 87 win team +/-2’

Similarly, just because a hitter’s career wOBA is .320 it Jang a foregone conclusion that he will always end there, or never at, say, .300 or .340.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 4:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

'it isn't'

Not ‘it Jang’

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 4:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

"via mobile"

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

No idea why ‘Jang’ (capitalized, no less) is in my autocorrect.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

the last name of the guy

who either designed your phone or created the custom dictionary for your phone

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 15, 2011 6:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's the flipping coins part that's the key

The “analysis” I put together was rough and I didn’t really intend it to stand up to up to scrutiny which is why I cited the Baseball Prospectus numbers which also indicated a dramatic shift in playoff chances with a winning streak.

Within the analysis, however, I specifically set the ground rules as a team that has a 55.6% chance of winning any given game. In that context, the conditional probability numbers I gave would work. The model is not all that realistic. There are a ton of variables that go into any given season, yet within the context of the model’s reality, the numbers work. An unlucky 0-4 hole is a substantial disadvantage for a team that has a 55.6% chance of winning any given game.

A team that’s 0-4 is not, in fact, likely to be a .556 team in the first place. Over the course of an entire season, however, game outcomes really are like flipping coins. If a team that wins 55.6% of their games plays 162 games, then the total sum of wins in 162 trials where each the chance of winning a game ranges from 30%-75% chance of winning is going to end up very close to the total sum of wins in 162 trials at 55.6%.

So no, the model isn’t a great reflection of reality.

by ecocd on Apr 14, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's been awhile since I have taken a math class

But I am fundamentally getting caught up on the the concept of taking a percentage of a percentage, aka calling 28.8% to 34% a 18% jump. Can you do that? Math majors? Bueller?

My simple mind thinks of that as a 5.2% jump. Therefore, if the brewers playoff odds decreased from 40% to 20% after the 0-4 start, I would call that a 20% drop, not a 50% drop. If I am wrong, I apologize (this feels likely).

I still don’t know the specific math that you used, but I don’t think that using the “only 1 team has done it in 20 years” fact is reliable, partially because it takes a population of really bad teams that started out 0-4 and lumps them in with good and fringe teams that started 0-4. To properly gauge the impact of that kind of a start (from a historical perspective) you would want to use a population that had teams near the Brewers caliber that started 0-4. Still, only 1 of these made the playoffs, but the percentage increases quite a bit due to the denominator (total population of teams) decreasing.

Anyways, this all becomes silly when the Red Sox and the Brewers make the playoffs this year.

by LosinCatmansLove on Apr 14, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Calculating the percentage change in a percentage is perfectly legal.

However, it takes very clear explanation to keep your units straight.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure...

but it happened. We’re 6-5 and have the 4th best record in the league. Later in the year we could go on a 10-game losing streak and be out of the race, or go on a tear and win the division by 15 games. Either way, now’s not the time to get terribly excited or tense about it.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Twitter.

And my friends that don’t know anything about baseball. And JAMOOL.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mets commentator

Don’t know who it is, but he just described a Murphy base-running error as “egregious”. Don’t think I’ve ever heard a commentator use that word before…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 11:29 AM CDT reply actions  

I'll be honest

and admit I had to check up to see exactly what it meant. Seemingly it can mean extremely bad or, in more archaic usage, eminent or distinguished, meaning it has two definitions which are opposites. It makes it seem like a more archaic version of nasty (“the pitcher had nasty stuff”) or something similar…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Reminds me of when Dennis Miller was on MNF

and used the term “Pyrrhic Victory.” Dan Fouts didn’t know wtf.

by MillerParkSouth on Apr 14, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

Zuh?
A Pyrrhic victory is a victory with devastating cost to the victor; it carries the implication that another such victory will ultimately cause defeat

.

by MillerParkSouth on Apr 14, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

here you go

I have no idea where that definition comes from (the pyrrhic victory phrase makes more sense than the individual word, as I assume it has a word root in the latin [or greek?] for fire). But in any case, that’s the definition of pyrrhic, as weird as that may be.

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting. You learn something new every day.

The term comes from a battle in the Pyrrhic war, which I assume was a military contest over unaccented syllables.

by MillerParkSouth on Apr 14, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Damn

I remember getting taught that at school – if you’d mentioned spondees I’d have got it…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

spondees

were a clothing item that went out in the 18th century, right? :P

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mention of

Pyrrhus on a baseball forum leads to the best baseball name of all time

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

played position O6?

that means he played short center, right?

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

according to bb ref

outfielder and shortstop

i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!

by sowingwildoats on Apr 14, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

No one here has watched 187?

YOU CAN’T KILL ME!

You not man enough to play your own game Cesar?

by cwolf20 on Apr 14, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is it something to do with

this?

Personal disclaimer: I know nothing about this type of thing at all…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Originally

the word egregious meant exceptionally good. However, the definition eventually reversed when Shakespeare used the word egregious to describe the death of a character in one of his plays. Since then it has come to mean exceptionally bad. However, morphologically, egregious just means that something is exceptional, or stands out in some way; the root of the word does not contain anything that means either good or bad.

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Apr 14, 2011 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Or Bill and Ted's

“Ted, we are about to fail history MOST egregiously”.

I wonder if Mr. Saito will confuse batters by throwing salt in their eyes.

by PriceT on Apr 14, 2011 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

We've used it here at BCB ten times now.

Most recently here, in the posting guide.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 14, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

maybe this is Kyle's subtle way

of letting us know that he’ll be live-blogging and broadcasting from the media booth at the stadium for the rest of the season

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 14, 2011 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I make it 41 in comments

With quite a few regular users having used it (Pags, Lefti, Warwick5, TheJay, ZTK, Hyatt, KL, HangwithemRach, BrewAngel, ecocd). In fact up until now just about everyone had used it apart from me…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Like a Batman villain?

Egghead: “This heist is going to be most egg-regious! (maniacal Vincent Price laugh)”

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Vincent Price was AWESOME!!!

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Apr 14, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

My old roommate and I tried to write a 1960s-style Batman stageplay with Egghead as the villain. But all we’d do is sit around making egg puns.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

It sounds

an egg-stremely good idea but perhaps it’s not eggs-actly quite eggs-ellent enough…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 14, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Omellette-le sad we couldn’t finish it, but I will admit a lot of our yolks were eggs-cruciating.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

The conversation drifts from Pyrrhic Victory to egg puns.

I think we might be nerds.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

The sad part is that I missed the Pyrrhic Victory portion

I’ve read a lot of history, so I knew that one.

Fortunately, I’ve also watched a lot of Adam West-era Batman.

by Brew Angel on Apr 14, 2011 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m very happy about all of this.

by mpbMKE on Apr 14, 2011 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Egg-cellent!

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Haven't seen whiskeydick in awhile...

Weird.

"Special teams means special times, bros"

by schmita91 on Apr 14, 2011 1:39 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

switched to vodka?

Too far?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 4:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Today's Lineup

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Carlos Gomez
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
RF Erick Almonte
C Jonathan Lucroy
LHP Randy Wolf

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 3:20 PM CDT reply actions  

notsay!

Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.

by theBrouhaha on Apr 14, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can someone explain to me...

…why everyone hates Kotsay but didn’t hate Edmonds?

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know what you're talking about..........

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Edmonds hit. Pretty well.

And he wasn’t a gold glover, but his defense wasn’t quite as…head-desk worthy.

I think most of us were pretty confused and unhappy at the start about Edmonds though. But once he started hitting, we forgave him.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 14, 2011 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plus we didn't see Edmonds as blocking significantly better players

I think most of us wanted to see Cain spend a season at AAA.

Not to say we have a bunch of great outfield prospects now, but I would have preferred giving Boggs a chance to keeping Kotsay. And now Tony Plush is off to a hot start — Kotsay is taking potential ABs from him.

by Brew Angel on Apr 14, 2011 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd say that question can be answered if you just look at their career stats.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Next week's Brewers-Phillies series

Looks like the whole series is going to be televised nationally. Monday’s game has been picked up by ESPN, and Tuesday and Wednesday are going to be on MLB Network.

Monday’s game should be a great one. Probable starters: Marcum vs. Halladay.

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 3:52 PM CDT reply actions  

I want to say that's a battle of former teammates...

…but was Marcum a starter while Halladay was in Toronto?

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes

Marcum played for the Jays from 2005-2010 (missed all of 2009 due to TJ surgery)

Halladay played for the Jays from 1998-2009.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Picked up by WMLW and blacked out on MLB network?

/sarcasm

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2011 4:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

YouTube

could fall under either good or bad things.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 14, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ouch

Capuano’s final line from today’s game: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HRA
Jorge De La Rosa wasn’t much better: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Additional

Capuano also hit one batter.

Capuano threw 103 pitches to 28 batters, 62 for strikes.
De La Rosa threw 101 pitches to 27 batters, 62 for strikes.

by -JP- on Apr 14, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

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