Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

Friday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while figuring it out.

It's not too often you can make big news by announcing something that won't start until 2016, but that's what the Brewers did yesterday by signing Ryan Braun to a five year, $105 million contract extension that will keep him as a Brewer through 2020 with a mutual option for 2021 (FanShot). Here's the financial breakdown: Braun gets $10 million as a signing bonus now, $19 million per season in 2016, 2017 and 2018, $18 million in 2019 and $16 million in 2020. There's also a mutual option for 2021 with a $4 million buyout. There's also deferred money involved, but those numbers are not available.

One of the first questions I asked upon hearing the news was "How did this come about?" I can see the logic involved in making a deal for both sides, but was surprised to hear that either side initiated talks this early. It turns out Braun started the conversation during spring training, and things progressed from there.

It's hard to develop an objective reaction to a deal involving a star player, this much money and such a distant timeframe, but Jordan did a good job of doing so in our reaction post.

As you might expect, reaction to this deal has been all over the place:

  • Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus is comparing the deal to a ten year contract for a 27 year old Manny Ramirez, at a discounted rate.
  • Howie Magner of Milwaukee Magazine says the deal makes Braun the Brewers' natural successor to Robin Yount.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America says "one of Ryan Braun's future teammates on the 2020 Brewers is sitting in an 8th grade classroom right now." Now we know how Craig Counsell spent his off day.
  • Christina Kahrl of ESPN notes that the Brewers now have too much future money committed to reduce the payroll below the $80-90 million range in the immediate future.
  • Scott Segrin of In-Between Hops says this contract improves the quality of the team as a business entity.
  • Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar says "any time a small-market club can keep its best player through what looks like the rest of his career, it's a very good thing for baseball."
  • The Bucky Channel says "I'm firmly starting to believe that Mark Attanasio is the greatest thing that ever happened to the Milwaukee Brewers."
  • Danny Knobler of CBS says he understands why "eyebrows are being raised around the game," but also understands how dangerous it could have been for the Brewers to wait until free agency was approaching to work out a new deal.
  • R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus says "One has to admire the Brewers' moxie and commitment to keeping their star players in town, but at the same time, one has to wonder if this - like the Troy Tulowitzki extension - will appear overzealous before the new deal even kicks in."
  • Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs says "If they're (the Brewers) not betting on significant inflation affecting the market in the next four years, then their motives become a bit more questionable."
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today says there's no way the Brewers can afford to keep both Braun and Fielder. 
  • Adam McCalvy says Braun's contract has little to do with Fielder's situation.
  • Keith Law called the deal "Totally unnecessary risk. Great player, but this is mostly downside for the club."
  • Brewers Daily says "Extending Braun an additional five years was just not that necessary."
  • Keep Turning Up the Heat! says, "The Brewers just took a completely unnecessary and huge risk to ink a player they already had through his prime to keep him for his declining years."
  • Miller Park Drunk is upset because...maybe I'd better just let him explain it.

On any other off day, either one of the following two stories would have qualified as big news. First, the Brewers made a flurry of roster moves yesterday, optioning Mike McClendon back to Nashville, activating LaTroy Hawkins off the DL, outrighting George Kottaras off of the 40 man roster and moving Zack Greinke from Brevard County to Nashville, where he's expected to start on Sunday. (FanShot). A Girl's View of the Brewers, much like my wife, is going to miss the Grecian Sensation.

The Brewers weren't done, though: this morning they also placed Nyjer Morgan on the DL with his deep thigh bruise and announced plans to add Brandon Boggs to the roster before tonight's game (FanShot). As one might expect, @Tony_Plush has a three part reaction, and it's well worth reading.

Yesterday's flurry of offseason activity quickly turned the Mark Attanasio-Dodger rumors into a sidenote. He told reporters that he's "committed to Milwaukee" at yesterday's press conference.

Back on the field, the Brewers resume play tonight in the thick of the NL Central race. Steve Gardner of USA Today compared the division to the 70's cartoon "Wacky Races," compared the Brewers to the Slag Brothers, and listed them at 3:1 odds to win.

Kameron Loe remains one of the Brewers' more interesting storylines, and he leads all NL players with 11 appearances in the Brewers' first 18 games. MLB Depth Charts listed Loe among this week's Relievers on the Rise.

In the minors:

  • Brewerfan.net has released their new Power 50, with Wily Peralta taking over the top spot.
  • Baseball America is reporting the Brewers have released 2010 12th round pick John Bivens, an outfielder. He hit just .164/.282/.224 between Arizona and Helena last season.
  • Manny Parra made another rehab appearance for Nashville last night, pitching a perfect inning on 12 pitches. Ten of those pitches were strikes.
  • The affiliates went 2-1 last night, and Mike Rivera hit a pinch hit, two run home run to lead Nashville over New Orleans 8-7. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
  • One has to assume Rivera faces an uncertain future with the organization at this point. With Martin Maldonado already in Nashville and George Kottaras on his way, Rivera is unlikely to see much time (if he maintains his roster spot) in the coming weeks.
  • Meanwhile, Wisconsin was rained out in Burlington last night, meaning they've been postponed for three straight days.

Around baseball:

Mets: Returned Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus to the Blue Jays.

Around the NL Central:

  • The Reds beat the Diamondbacks 7-4 to remain in first place.
  • The Cardinals shut out the Nationals 5-0, and open a series against the Reds this weekend.
  • The Marlins finished off a sweep of the Pirates, winning 9-5.
  • The Mets beat the Astros 9-1, preventing Houston's first sweep of the season.

The Cubs and Brewers were off yesterday, so here are today's updated standings:

Team W L GB
Cardinals 10 9 --
Reds 10 9 --
Brewers 9 9 .5
Cubs 9 9 .5
Pirates 8 11 2
Astros 9 12 3

In former Brewers: On Saturday I mentioned former Brewer Jim Lonborg, who was involved in two of the more complicated trades in franchise history. I mentioned the deals to MLB Trade Trees, and they made a great graphic showing the players coming to the Brewers in deals involving Lonborg and Tommy Harper.

Today in baseball economics: The Padres are playing the 2011 season without a deal in place to televise games for next season. At the moment it looks like they're planning to leave their current TV partner and accept an offered 20-year deal from Fox, believed to be worth around $17-22 million annually.

It's relevant to nothing Brewer-related, but Amazin' Avenue has my favorite graphic of the day: A bar chart showing how often the Mets (and their opponents) score when reaching various bases. If someone wanted to make a similar graph for BCB, I'd gladly find a slot on the front page for it.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to fill this cup.

Drink up.

Comment 163 comments  |  2 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

The Brewers are lucky to have Attanasio. The McCourts and Wilpons of the league reiterate how solid Brewer ownership is.

The thing I take from the Braun signing is the comittment that Attanasio are making to Milwaukee. Both are stating that the plan is that Milwaukee will try to compete indefinitely. There are no apparent plans to blow everything up and rebuild anytime soon.

Also, Prince might have been the face of the franchise, but I think even if he were to re-sign, this is will be Braun’s team.

by grant76 on Apr 22, 2011 10:46 AM CDT reply actions  

Thing about writing the Mug, is that you don't get recs for your witticisms
Ben Badler of Baseball America says “one of Ryan Braun’s future teammates on the 2020 Brewers is sitting in an 8th grade classroom right now.” Now we know how Craig Counsell spent his off day.

I would’ve rec’d that. I’ll rec the Mug instead, but it still doesn’t seem fair.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 10:48 AM CDT reply actions   2 recs

I'll happily donate all my recs

To the not-for-profit Frosty Mug Author Relief Fund, to reward those morning writers without whom my day would be far less enjoyable

by nullacct on Apr 22, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

See this is why you always get an agent

you will never get the contract you want if you cant sell yourself!

BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ

by Jeo on Apr 22, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Lobster Dog"

Although the link is in the Mug, I do not understand how the reference to, and picture of, “Lobster Dog” can pass without further comment. Shouldn’t Gorman have been a shoe in for the photoshop?

by tosabrewfan on Apr 22, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions  

I don't know . . .

. . . if it is sad or awesome that there exists in our society a “most famous” internet dog in a lobster costume. I will say that I believe Gorman to be the internet lobster dog with the closest ties to Ryan Braun.

by tosabrewfan on Apr 22, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Damn

Let’s hope Gorman ages well and his fielding skills hold up…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Gorman has no fielding skills whatsoever.

When I throw him treats, toys, etc, I have to be careful not to hit him. He doesn’t catch anything. He just ducks his head, lets it hit him and picks it up off the ground.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 22, 2011 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Corgi?

Are you royalty or something?

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sounds like Carlos Lee in LF.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

One of my dogs is great at catching treats.

The other one just lets the treats hit him in the face.

My goodness.

by BrewHaHeather on Apr 22, 2011 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wacky Races

I’m happy the Brewers are the Slag Brothers, although I’m surprised there was no mention of Corey Hart. “If the whole Wacky Races series had been scored according to the Grand Prix point scoring of the period the Slag Brothers would have been the champions.”

by PJLizard on Apr 22, 2011 11:02 AM CDT reply actions  

um

that’s clearly Corey Hart and Corey Hart’s twin.

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Apr 22, 2011 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

What was I thinking?

You’re right… it’s our RFs… Hart and Kotsay.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Trying to keep my glasses away from rose colored, but...

That article is garbage. There’s no evidence behind it. It reads: ‘my opinion is that you don’t pay players for decline years or sign anyone to a long term contract’. There’s no worthy analysis at all. I usually like what comes out of fangraphs for it’s statistical analysis, but that’s some drivel I’d expect from ESPN.

by MGT on Apr 22, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

How do you see Braun's decline phase playing out?

if you assume a relatively gentle half war loss per year, his performance is something like:

11: 5
12: 4.5
13: 4
14: 3.5
15: 3
16: 2.5
17: 2
18: 1.5
19: 1
20: 0.5

Under this scenario the Brewers bought 7.5 war. If salaries continue to increase 10% a year, one war projects to cost $8-12M between 2016 and 2020, so that means the market rate for 7.5 war should be around $75M. The Brewers are paying $105M. That means salary inflation has to go even higher than it is now, or Braun has to move to first and continue hitting like he’s in his prime. Neither seems likely.

Sign Carlos Silva!!!

by guayzimi on Apr 22, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not trying to be snide, honest question

Why would you assume a half WAR loss per year?

Second question – why do people seem to assume that Braun needs to move to 1B? I’ve never really got that either.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 22, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I could maybe see him moving to 1B at some point in the future

He’s not that good of a defender now, but his speed helps. As he gets older, his speed will no longer help him minimize his mistakes.

My bigger hang up with those numbers isn’t so much the 0.5 decline in WAR each season, but rather when the decline starts.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

My understanding is that

projected decline starts tomorrow with all players, due to injury risk. Could be mistaken about this…

Sign Carlos Silva!!!

by guayzimi on Apr 22, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've never heard that before

but then again, I’m not really well-versed in advanced sabermetrics.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure it has any sabermetric basis or justification.

According to that reasoning, any player signed to a 5 year contract is going to be worth 2.0 WAR/year less by the end of it ($10+ million/year). So basically any contract can be declared bad unless it was a huge deal to begin with.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it's more like depreciation

Every mile you put on your car makes it incremental less valuable. Every hit a running back takes in the NFL shortens his career just a tad. One could say the same thing for baseball players.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it's an over-cautious analysis.

Elite players frequently play at an elite level late in their careers, then plummet at the end after a modest decline.

by mpbMKE on Apr 22, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me too. Barry freaking Bonds played in Left until the end.

Slowly negating baseball nerdery on BrewCrewBall.
JEO's Fantasy Football team sucked.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 22, 2011 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

So...

You’re assuming that this year will be Braun’s peak and next season will start the decline?

Seems pretty pessimistic.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

looking at his comparables

No one really fell off a cliff until the 34-35 aged seasons, which isn’t until about 2018-2019. I really still think this deal is a bargain all in all, but I don’t like how the crew really doesn’t get many hometown discounts. They are good at paying their guys market rate, but no real bargains in there.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Apr 22, 2011 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

That said

There are plenty of teams out there that aren’t good at paying their guys market rate. I imagine you’re referring to the Hart, Weeks and Braun extensions?

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

No I would guess he'd peak between now and age 30...

the decline projection factors in injury risk.

Sign Carlos Silva!!!

by guayzimi on Apr 22, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Very scientific.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

so wouldn't you just assume

5,5,5,5,0,0,0 or something?
half a WAR per season makes no sense – the falloff would be exponential, not linear in any case.

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 22, 2011 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Assuming a conservative 0.5 WAR/year decline and that Braun's peak is 28 instead of 27, he only needs to be worth 5.2 WAR at his peak for the extension to match his total WAR.

But once again, the WAR/dollar discussion completely misses the point of the move.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

(10% salary inflation)

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

I disagree with the notion that Braun will begin to decline starting in his age 27 season (2012)

Perhaps others will buy it, but that’s Kool Aid I’m not drinking.

The only Kool Aid I drink, is the stuff Counsell’s mom brings.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 22, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah it's completely unrealistic to think he starts the decline at age 27

Of course you account for injury risk, but that’s… excessive. You really think he’s a below average player by 32? He’s not Pujols but it’s not like athletic corner outfielders traditionally fall off a cliff. I fully expect 2 6+ WAR seasons out of him in the next 10 years. It’s probably safe to assume he’s around average the last two years of the deal, but then they’re paying less than the peak value and, in fact, it’s probably around what average will be worth then.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Apr 22, 2011 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

There's a reason pure sabermetrics people don't run front offices.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think he's too bearish on Braun's ability to keep his skillset

But that said, it’s one thing to say the deal was premature and too risky; I think there’s a perfectly valid argument there. But to compare it to the Ryan Howard contract? The Phillies are paying Howard $25 MM a year when he’s not worth that much NOW. At the very least the Brewers locked in Braun for a salary appropriate for his current production. What’s more, they have very different skillsets: Howard is the epitome of old player skills, whereas Braun, apart from his defense, is all young player skills.

If I were Ryan Braun, I'd be really excited to be Ryan Braun, too.

by Lefti on Apr 22, 2011 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

Front-loaded with deferred money.

The big-dollar years are right in his peak, then the dollar amounts drop, plus he agreed to defer salary (like Kyle said, details still hard to find on that). That’s a huge part of what makes it a better deal for the Brewers than Howard’s is for Philly.

by mpbMKE on Apr 22, 2011 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

I am not sure the defered money is a good idea.

Sure it helps us while he is n the team but I hate paying players after they are gone.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Does it really matter?

The team has to pay him $145.5M. Even if it’s spread out over a longer period of time, it won’t cost the team any more money.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Paying players after they are gone is more of an issue when there is a salary cap. In this case the deferred money can be thought of in the same way as the “ambassador for the team” package Favre was offered by the Packers to stay retired. The “One team Superstar” effect that Braun could have on the PR of the Brewers in 2020 could be well worth the deferred money he is going to get in the future.

"I agree but dont agree"

by juggernaut400 on Apr 22, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

It is an issue with or without a salary cap.

The money paid Hall was money we couldn’t pay to a player helping our team win. Same basic concept. The team only has so much money to spend.

I think “PR money” is being overvalued. How much did keeping Yount around his whole career help in the late 90’s and early 2000’s.

If the Brewers win they will draw fans, if they lose they won’t.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it was already stated somewhere in this thread that the year following Yount's retirement

average attendance dropped 66%, despite the team actually doing better the following season.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

That could very easily have more to do with them being a good team in 1992.

How was our attendance in 2009 compared to 2010?

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Now that I look at it

It was probably more due to the strike than anything else (they only played 115 games in 1994).

Brewers attendance in 2009 was higher than in 2010.

Brewers avg attendance…

2006 – 28,835 (75-87)
2007 – 35,421 (83-79)
2008 – 37,882 (90-72; playoffs)
2009 – 37,499 (80-82)
2010 – 34,278 (77-85)

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Shoot, forgot about the strike.

At least when exactly it was.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the dropoff from 2008 to 2009...

Was probably due to the 3rd year of Suppan’s contract. I assume at least 2000 fewer people/game would go to each of Suppan’s starts.

by Brew Angel on Apr 22, 2011 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

I understand the numbers-based criticism as well, I just think it completely ignores the reality of how to successfully run a baseball team.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Agree

I read fangraphs and think they do a great job, yada yada yada…but it seems like if you ran a team based purely on numbers, you would never make any moves, ever.

Every FA contract is an overpay. Giving up multiple prospects is bad because they’ll eventually have more WAR than the guy you got in return. Never, ever sign a guy past age 32 to more than a 1 year deal (even though that’s practically impossible).

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 22, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

There's also the whole "these are people not robots" deal...

and having a modern-era Yount-like figure for the team is huge.

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Apr 22, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

this is exactly the point that many are missing

The Brewers just basically renewed the lease for many fans. Not to mention all of the future fans and casual fans who can latch on to Braun over the next decade. Think how much more revenue will be generated in jersey sales and other Braun related merhandise over that time span. And even in the event that the Brewers start to backslide in the future, Braun will still be here putting butts in the seats.

He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…

by jarlbartar on Apr 22, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Absolutely

Consider Brewers attendance before and after Yount retired. In ‘92-’93 they averaged 21,885 per game, while in ‘94-’95 they averaged just 14,543 (66% decline). I’m sure there were other factors involved, but it still makes a huge difference to have a franchise player. Particularly for a small market.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

If nothing else, it gives the fans something to cheer about

Only being able to rely on Casey McGehee to come through, for instance, doesn’t make for a particularly compelling team.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think this is what most (if not all) of the media is missing

The point is that Braun is worth more to the Brewers that just preformance on the field. The money that he generates via shirt sales and putting bums on seats etc means that the overall cost to the Brewers of this deal is less than the $105 million. How much so is a difficult to gauge I suppose but I’m sure that the front office of the Brewers have some idea of what it is and factored this in when making the deal. Indeed considering Mark A’s background I’ve got to figure he has a better handle on the business side of this than most if not all of the people making judgements about the deal
From a pure baseball prospective this might be a slight overpay but from the Brewers point of view the overall value of Braun to the team means that this makes good business sense.

by Saltire on Apr 22, 2011 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Attendance is based more on wining and losing.

People will not show up to see Braun play on a crappy team. Whether or not Braun helps the team win more games and can we sustain a winning team while paying him should be the only considerations.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that's true in general

but a crappy team with Braun will likely drive more attendance than a crappy team with a bunch of nobodys.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t doubt a losing team with Braun will draw more than a losing team without Braun. I really think the difference is minimal though. Not enough to cover his salary. So it comes back to whether they can build a better team with Braun or without.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

I not saying that the extra attendence etc

will pay for all of his salary. The extra revenue that he helps generate should factored in when looking at the amount that we are paying him.

by Saltire on Apr 22, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

but if he's injured, we don't get that effect

so, basically the effect is tied to his WAR in a way

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 22, 2011 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not really sure how much the franchise player argument works here

Ultimately I think merchandise and attendance are primarily driven by the success of the team on the field. As a result, the argument comes back to whether spending the money on Braun is better than spending the money on someone else. Sure, there might be a small impact by having a player who is very good and has always been with the Brewers as opposed to a player who is very good and has been with some other team, but I don’t reckon its that much…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

There is a huge impact, I think you're underestimating it.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

There’s not a lot of reason to think this is true. People have tried time-and-time again to find a revenue connection with special players above and beyond their performance, but it’s extremely rare and temporary (Fernandomania and McGwire/Sosa are two of the very sparse exceptions over the last 30 years).

Things like merchandising are just drops in the bucket – all licensing revenue, with the exception of in-game sales and profits from stores owned and run by teams, are shared equally among teams (if you walk into a sporting goods store and buy a Brewers hat, the Yankees get as much of your money as the Brewers do).

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m not sure how such an analysis would be possible, not only because it’s very difficult to quantify the difference between fan favorites and other elite players, but also because the recent sample of superstars who spent their entire careers with individual teams is only a handful of players to begin with.

In the end, it appears that the people actually entrusted to run teams worth hundreds of millions of dollars disagree with you, re: the lack of a connection.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m not sure how such an analysis would be possible, not only because it’s very difficult to quantify the difference between fan favorites and other elite players, but also because the recent sample of superstars who spent their entire careers with individual teams is only a handful of players to begin with.

If what you say is true, then Zimbalist’s generalized revenue models would have had a much lower correlation than they did. While you may not be able to neatly isolate Braun compared to another Brewer, you can tell if marginal wins of the Brewers result in a disproportionate increase in attendance or TV ratings, or many other things. This is the first step towards making the basic case.

In the end, it appears that the people actually entrusted to run teams worth hundreds of millions of dollars disagree with you, re: the lack of a connection.

Ah, the old “appeal to authority” fallacy. Unless I’m missing someone, Jeff Sackmann and I are the only two people around here that have been paid by those people “actually entrusted to run teams.” That’s a poor line of argument, however – the legitimacy of an argument is based on the presented logic, not presented resume.

So, I’ll ask straight out. Do you have any evidence whatsoever that what you say is true other than simple, straightforward conjecture?

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

So far your proof is "people"

I’m not denying your point and I actually think there’s a good chance it’s true except for the extreme outliers you mentioned. That said, you didn’t actually provide your evidence out there. It would be easier to understand your point of view if you could cite “people” otherwise we’re in the same position of taking your position as conjecture as well.

The other point is fan good will. An engaged fanbase adds to the value of the franchise (how are the Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns worth anything?). People aren’t going to buy any jerseys at all if they know every single player will be gone within 6 years. They also aren’t going to be getting new season ticket holders as that’s a substantial statement of faith in the team’s management. It’s also easier to retain season ticket holders than get new ones when there’s faith in the management to commit to having talent on the field.

Mark A (current owner) is getting nearly all of his value out of the Brewers in the form of increasing the value of the franchise and not in annual revenue. I’m pretty sure he’s already stated the team lost a little money in 2009, but that didn’t stop him from keeping a substantial payroll in 2010, because the franchise value keeps growing.

Braun’s contract taken in vacuum likely does only net the Brewers a few million dollars more in merchandise sales than the player that would replace him. Taken as part of a larger a corporate strategy, however, the contract is worth considerably more.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I’ve got some cites before. Better cites when I’m closer to my econ library.

Nobody’s doubting an engaged fanbase adds to the value of the franchise, what I’m arguing is that there’s little evidence that Braun adds more to the engagement of the fanbase above and beyond the extra wins he supplies.

Braun’s already guaranteed to be in Milwaukee for 5 years – he wasn’t going to walk at the end of the year without his contract signing. And the value of that $105 million years down the road could help the team win more games next year and the next few years while they’re already paying for Greinke and Hart and Weeks – I’m sure keeping the team above .500 has more value to individual fans than where Ryan Braun will play his declining years 7 or 8 years down the road.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Below, not before. I’m having an illiterate day.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nonetheless, thanks for stopping by.

I appreciate your contributions to the conversation today.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 22, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is kinda what I wanted to say

But, as is typical, I’ve managed to be less prosaic than someone having “an illiterate day”. Oh well…

If I was being really cheeky I’d even hypothesize that spending Braun’s money on a younger player further down the line instead of Braun may do more to energize the fanbase than keeping Braun (plus all those people who’d been wearing “Braun” shirts for years might have to go and buy something new). Actually, I reckon the effect on merchandise is negligible either way – not that this makes much of an impact on how I view the contract, its just I reckon the concept of “face of the franchise” is generally a bit bizarre all-round and is likely to be over-stated in terms of the financial implications.

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

How familiar are you with the Brewers minor league system?

I’m sure they’re looking to restock in a big way this draft, but right now the cupboard is bare.

It’s a risk extending Braun, but it’s also a big risk assuming there will be young talent to field 4 OF/1B good enough to match Braun’s production at 35.

“Face of the Franchise” is brand management. Brand management is important to any corporation and vital to an entertainment company. I know just enough about brand management to recognize that I know nothing about it. I would suggest you don’t underestimate its importance.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Braun wasn't leaving for at least 4 more years.

We have at least 2 drafts to get an impact player who would be ready by the time Braun left.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

2 drafts to attempt to get an impact player

Much like the decade or so of drafts they attempted to get an impact player during the 90s.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 22, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I just don't buy the whole "face of the Franchise" being all that important.

Winning is everything in sports.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Unless you're a Cubs fan.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, well you can't fix stupid.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah me too

I’m not really into the PR thing either.

I think having Braun at that money likely means they have a better chance to win.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 22, 2011 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

That really is my obviously poorly made point.

If it helps us win it is a good idea. I am not in love with the extension but I don’t really dislike it either. The other stuff like Face of the Franchise™ is nice but ultimately means little if you still lose.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yup, agree with all of that

I’d add that as a fan, I enjoy continuity with the better players, so its cool to have Braun around for a long time, but that is separate from the money or value debate of the contract.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 22, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

I admit I didn’t think I would ever see a lifelong Brewer again in my lifetime.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me neither

Granted, it took signing a player to a 10-year contract. Of course, with the way FA is now, that’s probably the only way it’s going to be possible going forward.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Probably.

I still hold out hope that there is some change in the CBA we don’t know about that Melvin and Mark A. do.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good point.

Although I have a hard time believing much will change. From a financial standpoint, baseball is in a golden era… I don’t see either side wanting to change anything too much.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I can see the mid and small market clubs

wanting a bigger piece of the pie but I don’t see them getting it any time soon.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting points

My knowledge of the Brewers farm system is better than the next man’s, but that’s only because the man next to me is a semi-illiterate yokel with no knowledge about baseball at all.

I agree that “Face of the Franchise” is about brand management and that brand management is vital to entertainment. However, firstly, I think the extent to which clubs focus on a single “face of the franchise” is overstated. Sure, if you’ve got a club with only one clear star you’re bound to make a thing of your best player, but a lot of clubs have a number of guys who could be the “Face of the Franchise”. Lots of Yankees promotions will have Jeter, but equally there’s a fair number with Sabathia, Swisher, Ivan Nova etc. Besides this, the extent to which players are going to be used in promotions, advertising etc is going to be highly correlated with players being successful – Braun isn’t going to be used in many promotions if he’s been with the club for 15 years but the last 6 or 7 he’d done nothing. Besides, who knows who else we might have in 5 years who could be the “Face”? Were people pointing out that the Greinke trade might not look as good as it could have because we already had Fielder, Braun and Gallardo so he was unlikely to be the sole “Face of the Franchise”? Perhaps, however, I just don’t really understand the importance of it as I’m coming from a continent that doesn’t have the same concept at all…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

a couple things...

“And the value of that $105 million years down the road could help the team win more games next year and the next few years while they’re already paying for Greinke and Hart and Weeks – I’m sure keeping the team above .500 has more value to individual fans than where Ryan Braun will play his declining years 7 or 8 years down the road.”

a) we’re not paying that $105M now… so, it’s not going to pay him while we’re paying ZG, CH or RW. Yes, we are paying the signing bonus now, which is kinda dumb, but whatever.

b) if we suck as a team but Braun is healthy, I guarantee we’ll be able to flip Braun for prospects. The quality of prospects will depend on how good he’s doing. If he’s still 2+ WAR a team in the playoff hunt will probably want him, if only as a bat off the bench…and he’s likely wave his no trade clause to be on a winner.

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 22, 2011 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

people bought CC sabathia jerseys

I’m assuming they didn’t assume he’d be a brewer for 6 years at the time of jersey purchase. I’d argue that transient players generate more merchandise revenue per year that they’re here than “franchise players”. The Braun jersey you bought last year will still be good next year, so you don’t need to bother this year

by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 22, 2011 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Evidence

The only evidence I could provide would be the reasoning of myself and others when we plop down $ for merchandise. In my part of the state (far West) most sports loyalties lay with the Packers, and few people pay attention to baseball at all. Those who do purchase Brewer merchandise tend to pick up stuff without names on it. For example, yesterday after Braun signed his extension I passed a lady in the halls at work who was wearing a Brewer windbreaker and asked her if she heard the news – and she didn’t know who Braun was.

But if you ask someone – anyone – in my town who Brett Favre is, and they will tell you about a time they went to Lambeau, or when they were late for a wedding because of a game against the Bears, or some other crazy anecdote. You can guarantee that at least half of everyone in town has at least one item of clothing somewhere (maybe it’s in the rag bin now, maybe not) with Favre’s name on it. Prior to the Favre-Thompson breakup (which had people actually losing sleep) his name was spoken with pride and even in the midst of a 4-12 season people found happiness watching him play and following a chapter in his story.

Favre was synonymous with the Packers like Braun is trying to be with the Brewers. Favre won a Superbowl and every game he played in invoked the memories of greatness. Braun wants to win a World Series and bring a golden era to Milwaukee baseball. He knows what it means to be revered, he’s seen it. We’ve all seen it. He wants to be our champion, and he’s doing what it takes to be a sports hero. There will end up being a lot of jerseys with Braun’s name on them in laundry bins before his career is through, and mine will be one of them.

Fan connection with star players isn’t just part of the equation, it’s the whole ball of wax. In this era, when the Marlins can win the World Series and then sell off the whole team, a sports fan is more cautions with their emotional investment. Braun is saying it’s safe to bet on him. The same way Albert Pujols challenged the world in Sports Illustrated by saying if you need to root for a player who you know is steroid-free, you can pick me; Braun i saying I’m a Brewer and I’m going to stay one. If you buy a jersey with my name on it you’ll never have to wonder what color it should be. Braun’s commitment will create sales where they didn’t exist before, I guarantee it.

by nullacct on Apr 22, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Dan, where can I find such studies on revenue connection with special players?

This is not meant to be flip. I’m genuinely curious and the notion that Braun as a longtime Brewer legend could positively influence the gate down the road in 2016 has superficial appeal to it. I’m somewhat surprised the general conclusion is that it does not have much effect.

Thanks.

by kmals on Apr 22, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Zimbalist touched on it in Baseball and Billions and Gerald Scully pretty much started baseball econometrics in Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball. Zimbalist improves on Scully in Diamonds are Forever (Zimbalist had better data) and it’s a subject that’s come up once in a while in the Journal of Sports Economics. I can do better when I’m not 500 miles away from most of my books.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Does that revenue split still continue once the player retires?

Because I’d guess the Brewers are still making an amount of money off of Yount that’s above “some.”

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 22, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Any licensing revenue will still go into the pot.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's also got his numbers wrong

Sloppy article from Dave Cameron. Braun was 5/$109 (incl buyout), front-loaded and deferred while Howard’s contract is 6/$125 (incl buyout) and back-loaded. They’re only mildly comparable.

He also assumes Tulowitzki’s contract is the fair market value for a contract through 2020. Who’s to say that the Rockies didn’t take his agent to the cleaners? It’s not like there’s a precedent for this kind of contract and it’s clear the Brewers and Braun’s agency ran their numbers and determined that Braun was worth 5/$109. If I were Tulowitzki I would be royally pissed at my agent right now.

This might be one of the worst editorials/articles I’ve read by him.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Although one could argue that Tulowitzki is a bigger injury risk than Braun, Tulowitzki plays a premium position.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

Are SS injured more often than LF/1B?

It’s also worth noting Braun’s TZ rating has increased steadily each year. If that continues and he can keep his error rate steady (barring 9th inning airmailed throws past home plate…), he could become a fielding neutral LF which would increase his overall WAR, as well.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was thinking more of

Tulowitzki has a history of injuries.

As far as the position itself, SS seems to require more physical activity to play than LF or 1B, but I’m not sure if that always translates into more injuries. Particularly since the guy with the longest record for consecutive starts did it while playing SS.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Braun hits and fields at the highest level he's shown over a full season in the same year, he's a 6.5 WAR player

Not even factoring any improvements as he enters his prime.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

While that is technically true and probably optimistic, what Braun does the next 5 years is irrelevant to the new contract – the Brewers already had that performance staying in Milwaukee. His new contract only nets the Brewers very speculative performance down the road.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's entirely relevant, because it justifies a higher expected performance down the line.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on Apr 22, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but that’s extremely optimistic. Great players tend to age better than average players, but they also tend to have earlier-than-normal pieces.

Deciding that Braun has a mean expectation going forward of being a 6.5 WAR player, something he’s never done and only come close to once, is the same thinking that led to mortgage-backed securities being overvalued. Simply put, it’s an extremely inaccurate risk model.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Earlier-than-normal peaks. Yikes.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

The next five years are important because they determine what Braun might have been worth on the market if he hadn't signed this deal.

If he has an MVP type season or two between 2013 and 2014, he probably wouldn’t have been available for 5/$105 anymore.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 22, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pretty much what I was going to say

Small market teams have to play the talent game very differently than the big market teams. To compete, the small market teams have to take big risks and be optimistic that they’ll work out. Large market teams can be conservative and the largest ones can make multiple mistakes and still compete.

This kind of contract would certainly have been dumb for a many of the teams in the major leagues, but the Brewers have no choice but to take on considerable risk.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I would have said the opposite

Big teams can take risks because they have the money to just write them off.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes.

Economists call the concept “Diminishing Absolute Risk Aversion”. Because there is uncertainty as to the performance, putting any money in play is considered a risk (an economist considers a game in which you lose nothing or win a dollar a game of risk).

The Yankees are probably still risk averse, but their income allows them to have the same degree of risk aversion and still take many more risks.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Apr 22, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Different risks

Risks relative to payroll. The big teams can take a $10 million flyer on pitcher if their payroll is $150 million. Taking a $10 million flyer on a formerly-dominant closer on an $80 million player is a different ballgame.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

In general, this is true.

However, this is a special case, because it’s an extension to an already existing 5-year contract, not a 10-year contract signed today. Teams assume risk on the back end so that they can get the best play on the front end. In this particular case, the Brewers already have the front end and are assuming the risky years with a decidedly less certain payout.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Apr 22, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Very true

I’d probably well agree with you if this deal was set up with escalating salaries from 2016 through 2020 and paid in normal terms. But the deferred money, as well as the fact that it’s frontloaded, makes me think this is going to work out pretty well. A free agent win could very well be worth over $7 million by 2020, and in that case they’re paying him like a slightly-above average player. Nominally it looks pretty bad but 2020 is so far away.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Apr 22, 2011 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Mark A was misquoted in the article about Braun initiating discussions
When principal owner Mark Attanasio first was told that Ryan Braun wanted to be a Milwaukee Brewer for life, he could think of only one thing to say.

"The first thing you say is ‘Wow!’ said the team’s principal owner.

I believe he said “WOW~!”

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."

by GoGregGo on Apr 22, 2011 11:29 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

LOLLERSKATES!!!

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Apr 22, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'ing this entire tree

because its awesome.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 22, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic

KL noted that an 8th grader in 2011 would be playing with the Brewers on 2020. Craig Counsell still looks like he could pass for an 8th grader. Hence, Counsell spent his off day in Mrs. Hollinger’s 4th period Spanish class.

by ecocd on Apr 22, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wasn't being sarcastic.

It must be something other people see….I don’t.

by -JP- on Apr 22, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

...
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to fill this cup.

Good thing Jeffress is in the majors.

by BrewCrewBrian on Apr 22, 2011 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Baseball Prospectus Play-off odds

are kinda interesting. Cards are the favourites in our division by quite a bit, while the Astros have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of getting into the post-season…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 12:52 PM CDT reply actions  

Pretty obvious to me...

… that Attanasio just paid 105 million to make certain that Ryan Braun gets his 3000th hit in a Brewer uniform.

Is that thought process a product of my rose colored glasses? Two answers: 1) Maybe. 2) Who asked you?

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 22, 2011 1:57 PM CDT reply actions  

don't you mean 5000th hit?

Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.

by theBrouhaha on Apr 22, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

2 members of the 3000 hit club that have all their hits as a Brewer would be pretty sweet.

"I agree but dont agree"

by juggernaut400 on Apr 22, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm sure that this has been pointed out many times before

But I never knew there was film made all about Braun

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 2:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, I think so

I just don’t like to think of Kapler as, however hard I try, there’s the tendency to have flashbacks to that picture someone once posted. Now I mention it, I’d better bring that up with my psychoanalyst…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

This picture?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Apr 22, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Arrrghh! Doctor, the flashbacks are starting again...

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Apr 22, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

ESPN's Baseball Today Podcast had an interesting argument today

They said that Carlos Gomez is the best center fielder in baseball defensively and won’t win a Gold Glove because of his bat (and also made a point that he shouldn’t be batting second).

by -JP- on Apr 22, 2011 4:03 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

The argument is interesting, but not new

I think it was Rafael Palmeiro that won a GG at 1B while only playing 14 games there, the rest as DH. Or something equally ridiculous.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Apr 22, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also, here's the lineups for today (from JSOnline).

Brewers

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Carlos Gomez
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
RF Mark Kotsay
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
C Jonathan Lucroy
P Yovani Gallardo

Astros

CF Michael Bourn
SS Angel Sanchez
RF Hunter Pence
LF Carlos Lee
1B Brett Wallace
3B Chris Johnson
2B Bill Hall
C Humberto Quintero
P Nelson Figueroa

Any predictions on the noise level of the boos when Bill Hall comes up for his first at bat in the third inning? (Also, yes, I’m thinking positive right now about Gallardo’s performance for tonight.)

by -JP- on Apr 22, 2011 4:06 PM CDT reply actions  

It would be better

if the stadium broke out into a collective belly-laugh.

Also, is it ironic to be making these jokes while simultaneously celebrating Ryan Braun’s contract? FFT.

by mpbMKE on Apr 22, 2011 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cameron's a good writer but what is this
The odds of Braun being better than an average player over the life of his new extension aren’t very good, so the Brewers need to hope that the going rate for an average first baseman jumps to $20 million per year in a few years.

Doesn’t make sense on 2 levels:
1) Don’t know if he’s saying cumulatively average, because if so that’s a terrible assessment of Braun’s skills. If he’s saying that he thinks by the end of the contract, Braun will be a below-average player, I’d also disagree. Maybe it’s just because we watch Braun more often, but he’s not exactly the type of player that’s going to get old and slow anytime soon. I’d bet a lot of money that even if he has to move to first eventually, if he’s healthy he’s going to be above-average. There are a lot of old first-basemen who still have a ton of value. And if I’m right and Braun’s getting more patient, his long-term value is even better.

2) What the average first basemen goes for has nothing to do with the decision they made. It’s based on information available at the time. He’s an economist, he should know better. They don’t do this and the odds are they’re going to be plugging a hole in 2018-2020 with a random free agent getting paid $15 million or so, which is what it will take to get an average player by then. Much rather have Braun being paid 19-19-16-15 those years.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Apr 22, 2011 5:16 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

If he moves to 1B his WAR will suffer by 5 runs per season because of the positional adjustment.

I agree though the difference in price between a free agent 1B and what we will be paying Braun will be small.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Apr 22, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Dr-teeth_small
Playoffs already out of reach?
Mcgehee_small
Kevin Youkilis: The Greek God of Hope?
Fredpabst_small
Mid June???
Nyjer_morgan_butterfly_small
Pseudofantasy WAR League Thingy May Update
Picture_069_small
Doug Melvin comments on WSSP this morning
Dc_small
Does MLB go beyond the rule book to award saves?
Img_0044_small
What's your knee-jerk reaction to this awful weekend?
Cheese-871_small
D-League: Week 4 Recap
Brew_angel_small
If the wheels come off....
0420111736a_0001_small
Morgan or Aoki?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

19 - 27

7

Lost 1

117

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
Cincinnati 26 20 .565 0 Won 1
St. Louis 25 22 .531 1.5 Lost 3
Houston 22 24 .478 4 Lost 1
Pittsburgh 22 24 .478 4 Won 2
Milwaukee 19 27 .413 7 Lost 1
Chicago 15 31 .326 11 Lost 11

(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Ramirez scratched due to plunking
Brewers Trade Nashville C Paul Phillips To Toronto For Cash
Did John Axford shave?

(Link to original tweet.)
Nice writeup on our boy Lucroy
Any tips on Target Field?
Twinkies/Crew Preview
Maturation of Ax Man
Shyam Das Fired by MLB as Arbitrator
Yount/Molitor Poster!
Mat GameLOL

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Yahoo_full_count

Moderators

Newavatar_small Kyle Lobner

146_-_street_map_plaza_from_pop_tower_with_bars-tiltshift_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small Noah Jarosh

Hikaru_50_small morineko

Picture_069_small Nicole Haase

Gogol_bordello_small BrewHaHeather

Rubieraptor2_small Rubie Q

Authors

Alien_small NPetrashek

Img_0065_small Eric Ely