Craig Counsell and the Vanishing Valuable Veterans

by Kyle Lobner on May 17, 2011 3:00 PM CDT in Conversation Starters

This isn't immediately relevant to anything we've been discussing today, but I found it this morning while searching for something else and thought I'd share it. Here is the full list of position players in their age 38 or older season who have made a positive rWAR contribution to a team in 2011:

Player	Age	Team	rWAR
Chipper Jones	39	ATL	1.1
Henry Blanco	39	ARI	0.4
Ivan Rodriguez	39	WSN	0.2
Omar Vizquel	44	CHW	0.2
Craig Counsell	40	MIL	0.2
Jim Thome	40	MIN	0.1

That's all of them. There's only six, and just one of them that's been worth more than one win. That player, by the way, may need knee surgery.

If you add in players in their age 37 season you get a total of 14 players, with just two above one win (Todd Helton is the other). Adding in the 36's only gives you four more players, with Orlando Cabrera as the best one (0.5 WAR for the Indians).

I don't mean for this to be a commentary on the Braun deal specifically but I think it pretty clearly shows the risk involved in locking a player, any player, up for the decline years in his career. Across baseball there simply aren't many players right now remaining productive into their late 30's, much less their early 40's.

Tweet Comment 26 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

If only

they made a drug that could help players recover from injuries quicker, give them a bit more strength that would also lengthen their careers. Maybe they’ll have that in a few years… Oh wait…. :-(

by Bertwerst on May 17, 2011 3:09 PM CDT reply actions

For reference

Ryan Braun will be 36 years old in the final year of his 2020 contract.

Lack of PEDs has really hurt the over-35 demographic. Maybe MLB can implement a franchise player rule where 1 player over 35 years of age on each team is allowed PEDs. Then we can squeeze another season or two from the fan favorites.

by ecocd on May 17, 2011 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

They can call it the "Bonds clause"

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Best seasons over the age of 35:

Rk Player OPS+ G Year Age
1 Mike Schmidt 152 160 1986 36
2 Jose Cruz 145 160 1984 36
3 Paul Molitor 143 160 1993 36
4 Rafael Palmeiro 141 160 2001 36
5 Pete Rose 130 163 1979 38
6 Raul Ibanez 123 162 2008 36
7 Paul Molitor 116 161 1996 39
8 Pete Rose 115 162 1977 36
9 Don Baylor 111 160 1986 37

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:13 PM CDT reply actions

I can see Braun having a season like this

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions

What is your criteria there?

Because Hank Aaron’s 1971 was phenomenal (age 37, 194 OPS+).

by nullacct on May 17, 2011 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

everything post 1975

Probably should have had Hank’s season in there too. Looking this up there are a lot of great seasons from, say, the ‘20s-’40s but I’m not sure how relevant they are.

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Not sure how you came up with that list

Barry Bonds – 35 – 188 OPS+, 7.8 WAR
Barry Bonds – 36 – 259 OPS+, 12.9 WAR
Barry Bonds – 37 – 268 OPS+, 13.0 WAR
Barry Bonds – 38 – 231 OPS+, 10.7 WAR
Barry Bonds – 39 – 263 OPS+, 12.2 WAR
etc.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on May 17, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions

I like your list better...

easier to read.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah i totally formatfailed this one and probably should just delete it

i’m starting to think the search i did totally failed

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Bonds is the obvious outlier

But according to Baseball Reference there have been 41 4+ rWAR seasons by players 36 or older since 1975

Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).

by SRB on May 17, 2011 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Actually

I didn’t have as much a problem with your list than my own.

I posted basically the same list as SRB, but his is much easier to read.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Well then

1999 Rickey Henderson, 127 OPS+, age 40, 121 G
2008 Jim Thome, 123 OPS+, age 37, 149 G
1990 George Brett, 153 OPS+, age 37, 142 G
2004 Julio Franco, 111 OPS+, age 45, 125 G
2004 Barry Bonds, 263 OPS+, age 39, 147 G
2001 Fred McGriff, 144 OPS+, age 37, 146 G
2006 Frank Thomas, 140 OPS+, age 38, 137 G
1992 Dave Winfield, 137 OPS+, age 40, 156 G
1999 Harold Baines, 135 OPS+, age 40, 135 G

by nullacct on May 17, 2011 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Barry Bonds would like a word with you

Year/OPS+/G/Age

2001/259/153/36
2002/268/143/37
2003/231/130/38
2004/263/14/39

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

2004 should read

263/147/39

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

oh yeah, forgot to mention

I deliberately took out all the 01-04 seasons besides Palmerios (which probably also should have gone)

mostly to prove that players can be productive if they are given the time and have the talent

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Figures, we're done playing the Braves

Wish Chipper had that knee cleared up a couple weeks ago.

by nullacct on May 17, 2011 3:13 PM CDT reply actions

I'd guess in 10 years, as surgery/training techniques get better, older players can still be productive

I know you can’t put a value on this, but it’s worth noting that by 2020 we may have the techniques to help guys like Braun stay healthy and effective. Obviously we’re not likely to take any steps back…

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:16 PM CDT reply actions

I doubt it

Unless by “surgery/training techniques” you mean using PEDs.

Looking back 9+ years doesn’t show that older players were less productive.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

thats why I said you can't put a value on it

it’s just something to consider. not to comment on the bartolo colon thing, but I would think in the future “career-ending” medical conditions would be reduced. it would make singing baseball players long-term less of a risk

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Is Braun a tenor or baritone?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

ddddddd'oh

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on May 17, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Since we're talking elite hitters

like Braun, it will be interesting to see how (PEDs aside) Alex Rodriguez handles his next few years. He’s 36 now.

by Archibaldcrane on May 17, 2011 3:59 PM CDT reply actions

Actually

A-Rod isn’t going to be 36 until July 27th.

In any case, his OPS+ has been steadily declining over his last three seasons. Last season, his OPS+ was his career low as a full-time player.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on May 17, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm still

learning how to use a calendar.

But yeah, if Braun follows that trajectory and we pay for a couple sub-par (by his standards) but plenty fine seasons at the end, I’m fine with that.

by Archibaldcrane on May 17, 2011 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Declining years are the cost you pay

In order to sign a top tier free agent for his peak years you usually have to pay him for his declining years as well. Its just the nature of free agency and its well worth it especially when you have a player like Braun who very well could be productive into his mid to late thirties thanks to his athleticism. We’re only a quarter of the way through the season, plenty of these guys can bring their rWAR’s over 1. Yeah you’re not going to get an mvp caliber season from a guy that is 36 but its worth taking his down year for that mvp season when he’s 30

by Iltown on May 17, 2011 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11