FanPost

Is the RISP problem just a BABIP problem?

Amongst position players, by my calculations:

I have the Brewers with 347 AB w/RISP.  On the season, the Brewers are hitting .257 and .239 with RISP.  They're slugging .405 overall and .374 w/RISP.  Overall, their BABIP is .295 and .275 w/RISP

To achieve their season-average BABIP of .295, we swap in 6 H where there were outs.  This BABIP-adjusted BA w/RISP jumps to .256.  Voila, no RISP problem.

I went through and pulled out the RISP numbers for the position players this year.  If someone can help explain how to do HTML tables I can put up the whole story.  You'll have to settle for the summary for now.  By my calculations:

Small sample size alert!  Here are your under performers w/RISP:

  • Weeks is seeing 9% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.194 (.263 BABIP)
  • Gomez is seeing 9% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.206 (.315 BABIP)
  • Betancourt is seeing 12% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.175 (.179 BABIP)

As Adam Savage would say, "Now there's yer problem."

If you want to know why RR likes Kotsay so much, check out the over performers w/RISP:

  • Kotsay is seeing 6% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.381 (.421 BABIP)
  • Fielder is seeing 13% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.319 (.350 BABIP)
  • McGehee is seeing 13% of the RISP PA and is hitting 0.292 (.293 BABIP)

In earlier discussions here, I suggested that the optimal situation for a team is to have their season BA match their RISP BA.  Anything lower would seem to indicate the hitters are lacking attention without RISP and anything higher would seem to indicate a player focusing more with RISP.  I'd rather have my players giving me the same effort regardless of the situation.

Only Kotsay seems to show a penchant for "clutch" hitting this year, but that's easily account for by some good luck.

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