Ranting About Tonight's Loss
by Jordan M on Jun 1, 2011 10:08 PM CDT
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Tonight's loss was a bad one. The sky's not falling, it was a well-fought, good series with the Reds on the road, and taking 1/3 isn't the worst outcome. And the team's playing well, still ahead of the Reds, and looks to be in really good shape going forward. But tonight's loss was frustrating beyond belief, and it's because it represented a failure in roster management and a failure in in-game management. You can't get too mad when great hitters like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are the ones who beat you, but those two issues I just pointed to could have put the Brewers in a much better position in the eighth inning.
The Reds were able to get away with batting Votto third and Bruce fourth throughout this series because the Brewers have no lefties out in the pen. It's an understandable predicament, considering that the top three lefties on the bullpen depth chart-- Manny Parra, Mitch Stetter, and Zach Braddock-- are all on the DL right now. But the Brewers did claim Danny Ray Hererra from the Reds, and he would be a capable lefty specialist and certainly a much better use of a roster spot than righty specialist/ blowout innings eater Tim Dillard. The only other lefties at AAA are Sam Narron and Chase Wright. I don't trust either, but it's tough to say Dillard is a more useful weapon at this point than Hererra. In addition, Braddock has been worked in very slowly and will probably return this weekend. His health is certainly top priority but you wonder if they couldn't have gotten him back for this series with more planning.
Anyways, what's done is done and Ron Roenicke did not have a lefthander available in his bullpen today. After Marcum worked 7 strong innings, he went to Kameron Loe for the eighth. First of all, it should be noted that I hate bullpen roles. Like Earl Weaver, I think a reliever's role should be to pitch when the manager tells him to. Kam Loe is a solid pitcher, a steady middle reliever no doubt, but he seems to have worked his way into some infallible role as the Eighth Inning Guy now, and that's the most dangerous thing for a steady middle reliever-- especially one with a pretty significant career split. When Loe was first called up last year he was seen as mostly a righty specialist. In his career he's allowed a .687 OPS to righties vs. an .847 to lefties. That was a bit less pronounced last season, but it's been there in his career. In addition was his particular struggles against Votto, who has now hit 3 homers in his career against Loe. That's not something I put too much stock in as a predictive measure, but it could certainly be a tiebreaker when determining who to throw in that situation.
When I watch a game and am evaluating decisions, I force myself to make a call on if I support a move before I knew the outcome. Watching this one, I was shaking my head hoping for something other than Kam Loe pitching to Joey Votto in that situation. Latroy Hawkins has a much better track record as a reliever and though Loe is very useful he's not good enough to attain the mythical Eighth Inning Guy role. That's a situation in which you have to play matchups, and Kameron Loe vs. Joey Votto is never a good matchup. There should have been a lefthander pitcher available to Roenicke in the first place, and given the fact that there wasn't, Roenicke should have recognized that Loe was not the guy he wanted facing Votto and then Bruce in that situation.
Tonight sucked. The sky is still up there but this one's going to sting a bit. I'm really confident in this team, but letting one slip away that could have possibly been avoided through some better maneuvering is going to keep me a bit angry at least for tonight.
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I'm guessing he brought in Loe to induce a DP
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Jordan, I agree ...
3-6 with 2 HRs is not very promising for Loe facing Votto. Roenicke should have had Hawkins warming up, in case a runner reached base and Votto came up.
Equally galling:
letting Yuni and Counsell hit for themselves in the ninth.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jun 1, 2011 10:25 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs
This
Why Ron, why?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 1, 2011 10:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If you hit for both of them
Then who plays shortstop? And if they can play SS, why was Yuni in the ballgame to begin with?
Isn't that why we got Wilson
so we could pinch-hit for Yuni in situations like that?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Wilson
So he’s only on the team so Counsell can get more PH chances, not to give them flexibility to pinch hit for Yuni late in games.
Neat.
Get a ife broseph
In fairness
I think it also gave RR a better chance to give McGehee a day off today, but yeah, I’m not impressed with the usage so far.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
I don't think so, considering they probably think Wilson is an all-glove/no-bat SS
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Jun 2, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
As opposed to YunE6 who is a no-glove/no-bat SS
by BrewCrewBrian on Jun 2, 2011 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions
If they didn't think Betancourt was a better hitter than Wilson, Betancourt wouldn't be starting.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Jun 2, 2011 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
At one point in his life,
in fact pretty recently, wasn’t McGehee playing every infield position for the Brewers before they acquired Felipe Lopez and sat Bill Hall on the bench, settling into specific roles? McGehee is fully capable of playing the same range-limited shortstop as Yuni.
McGehee has never played SS in the majors
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Jun 2, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, I thought he did.
I knew he played 2B, and had been a catcher and could play 1B, and I thought the fact that he could play every infield spot with a reportedly excellent glove was part of the reason he made the team in the first place. Not shortstop, though. My mistake.
Votto vs anyone is not really a good matchup
And that includes lefties. What was that stat they put up about him in game one? Hitting something like .450 against lefties this year?
The guy wasnt a fluke MVP for nothing. And the guy hitting right after him is on track for that type of season as well.
Loe/Hawkins is a toss up for that 8th inning role right now. I would take Loe’s nasty sinker over Hawkins best pitch in most situations. The only thing going against that is that he is being groomed to be way overused, inflating his numbers against.
by backtocali on Jun 1, 2011 10:26 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
We could've brought in Ax for a four-out save
if we hadn’t burned him out w/ 28 pitches in a five-run game the night before.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Could have but I think it's a moot point since Roenicke wouldn't have done that anyways
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Yeah, probably.
Ax showed he could do it last year. Why give him a chance in a situation like that ever again?
Barf.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jun 1, 2011 10:47 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
so...with an extra day of r(u/e)st
you think he would have done better? I think Ax would have blown it here too.
Extra day of rust?
He pitched on Saturday. He’s going to lose his stuff with three days off?
He might’ve blown it, he might not — point is: we’ll never know because he was misused on Tuesday night.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Here's a thought
Maybe your closer doesn’t pitch the ninth, if the ninth is scheduled to be the bottom of the order, but instead the eighth, where the other team’s scariest hitters are coming up. Why can’t we consider that the real save situation, as if you get through that part, your likelihood of winning the game skyrockets?
Sure he hits lefties well
Lefties also go a long way towards neutralizing his power. You can live with almost anything out of that Votto at bat except a HR. Then you still have a LOOGY in to face Bruce.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Totally agree
You captured exactly how I feel as well. Good post. I didn’t know Loe’s history against Votto, but had a very bad feeling when he came up and was hoping they’d make a pitching change. Tough loss to swallow, but the Crew need to move on and focus their energy on sticking it to FL.
I don't think Hawkins is a much better option
Didn’t like the result with Loe, but can’t complain too much compared with other options. Hitting Phillips was brutal.
Don’t understand punting the top of the 9th and leaving Kotsay and McGehee on the bench.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 1, 2011 10:47 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Throw traditional baseball out the window
is an IBB an option? or is Bruce too much of a threat for a hit to do that? If Bruce isn’t in the protection role?
Not an option
Bruce mashed one earlier in the game, and had a spectacular May. And looks to be continuing on that same clip.
"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up." ~Bob Uecker
Holy crap
I left horseshoes, and assumed they’d win the game.
How depressing.
I'm a Prince Fielder honk.
Also, the LIONS! (tm)
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jun 1, 2011 11:06 PM CDT reply actions
I just don't understand Braddock's protracted rehab
He’s now made six rehab appearances and not given up a run in any of them. (11 K’s in 7 1/3 IP) I realize a sleeping disorder/mental and emotional issues can be pretty touch-and-go, but this obviously hasn’t affected his pitching much. I’m sure the Brewers are doing everything they can get him back to health and back on the team, but dang, he’s sorely needed on the big-league team right now.
My thinking as well
Not going to question his status since I have no idea, but will read the Braddock chapter first in the tell-all book that McCalvy writes after the Brewers win the 2011 World Series.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 1, 2011 11:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
He's bi-polar right? I thought I remembered Tom H writing about that a few years ago
Though he hasn’t explicitly said that now probably per Braddock’s, the doctor’s, or the Brewers say (patient confidentiality). His DL stint has less, if anything, to do with his effectiveness as a pitcher. But rather is about learning to manage his own highs and lows and the pressure that comes with being a major league pitcher and how that effects how he pitches with the Brewers .
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Yes, I believe Tom has written about that before
And I assume there’s something more than just a sleeping disorder going on here. There’s really no reason the Brewers would unnecessarily dawdle in getting Braddock back on the team, so I don’t think they are – it’s just frustrating to see him making rehab appearance after rehab appearance when the team is in serious need of a lefty relief arm.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jun 2, 2011 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions
His last appearance was suboptimal
Didn’t give up a run, but walked 3. [shameless plug]see the Minor League Notes[/shameless plug]
I agree that Herrera should be on the club rather than Dillard
however, Votto still kills left handed pitching. Also, while realizing that Loe’s small sample size numbers vs. Votto aren’t very positive it wasn’t like Votto hit a great pitch. Loe completely missed his location and left the ball up and in the middle. I don’t care who’s out there 9 times out of 10 Votto is going to hit that pitch.
Loe’s been the most consistent reliever in the Brewer’s pen this year and has, thus, earned Roenicke’s trust in high leverage situations. Regardless of the small sample size vs. Votto I like Loe in there, rather than Hawkins because of his sinker.
Again, small sample alert: Loe has a .615 OPS against lefties this year and a .740 OPS against lefties last year with the Crew, compared to the .844 for his career. Given that Loe has done, essentially, equally as well against left and right handed batters this year I can understand Roenicke’s decision.
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
by Michael M on Jun 1, 2011 11:25 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Votto hits with nowhere near as much power
against LHP that he does against RHP. He doesn’t “kill” lefties. Sure he hits them well but not as well as RHP. Let’s not pretend it wouldn’t make a difference. There is one thing we needed to prevent Votto from doing and a LHP would have greatly decreased the chances of that happening.
Ultimately the manager’s job is to put his players in the right spots to give them the best chance to win. The GM’s job is to keep sharp objects away from his manager(like Kotsay) so they will not hurt themselves. Both blew it tonight.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Right, Roenicke had no lefty option and that's on Melvin
I agree, Votto doesn’t hit for the power he does against RHP but he does have a .888 career OPS against LHP. His slug % is .081 lower against LHP, but again, Roenicke doesn’t have a lefty as an option.
I understand Votto has hit Loe well in his brief plate appearances but I still can understand why Roenicke put him in there because he’s been the most trusted bullpen arm out there.
We may disagree about designating roles in a bullpen and there may be more than something to the strategy of “you pitch when I ask you to” but in Roenicke’s mind, perhaps in the player’s minds, having roles are important for the players so they can feel comfortable.
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
by Michael M on Jun 2, 2011 12:53 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am not concerned with a measly 6 PA
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Not really.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
from cursory looking, Narron isn't really having a bad year
The problem is that Narron is only a relief pitcher in terms of emergencies. He’s been almost exclusively a starter since his first professional season in 2002. The other problem is…dude, he’s basically a tall, skinny Chris Narveson with less velo. I’d give him a chance if for some weird, horrible reason two pitchers in the starting rotation go down at once, but he sure isn’t a lefty specialist.
This definitely was a frustrating loss, but I'm not sure a LOOGY would've made a difference
Not against Votto, anyway. And he’s the dangerous hitter in their lineup, though Bruce has obviously been on fire. Also, while I agree a LHP might have made Baker split his lefties, it probably wouldn’t have mattered. Bruce as stated has been on fire and Votto always hits lefties well, plus Rolen and Phillips aren’t exactly world beaters right now so them being in the middle makes little difference.
The overall assessment of Loe I agree on. There’s no reason Loe HAS to be THE setup man in the bullpen, and Roenicke seems to just be afraid of shaking certain things up. I suppose if Saito was around Loe would be that Todd Coffey type of reliever (where he’s better suited) but even so Loe shouldn’t be the absolute go to guy in the 8th, injuries or not. Especially against Votto, with a man on.
All in all, it was a tough loss to swallow, but move on to Florida and try to take 3 out of 4. Take a 4-3 roadtrip anyday at this point. Even if they split, 3-4 is basically .500 on the road which is where they need to be the rest of the season.
Grillax people
You presume another pitcher would have been better
I posit that maybe the outcome would have been different, but really this had (almost) equal chance to happen to anyone.
Axford was significantly rusty yesterday and may still be doing poorly. Plus, if there’s one established role in the bullpen, for better or worse, it’s the closer despite Ax holding Votto to 2Ks and 1BB in 3PAs.
Hawkins is doing pretty well for us this season, but he’s by no means lights out. Also, he’s still a traditional righty. FWIW Hawk gave up a double to Votto the only time they faced.
You could go completely non-traditional by pitching Narv or Wolf there. Wolf is scheduled tomorrow, so then you’d have to plug in the hole with Estrada on short notice. Narv might work, but he just pitched a couple of days ago. Still, if he hasn’t had his bullpen session recently, it could have worked. But what the hell manager is going to think of throwing in a starter when there is any healthy reliever still on the bench? Plus, the Votto vs Narv splits are nearly as gag-worthy as Votto vs Loe. Hardly a fail on RR’s part, unless we’re willing to indict all MLB managers in one fell swoop.
Then there’s the matter that Lucroy said Tuesday that he might be tipping pitches. If that’s the case, it doesn’t matter who you have pitching with a guy like Votto up there.
But also, to those that don’t consider 6PAs meaningful: fine…leave the homeruns at 2 and make the ABs 10 with an average number of hits in the fill-up. In this case, assume that he went 1 for 4 (.250) rather than 2 for 4 (.500). If you see a line with 2 HR in 10 PA and a .500 avg/obp, 1.100 SLG. If you don’t consider 10 meaningful, run it out to 20, but keep in mind that very few pitchers have faced Votto that many times (Wandy, Brett Myers, Randy Wolf, Oswalt 30, Big Z). Then you’re looking at 4 more hits (total of 6 non HR). Assume 1 walk too, as well as one of the hits being a double. That makes him 8/19 with 1xBB 1×2B 2xHR. Splits drop to .421/.789/.450, but something to be concerned about if you give ANY weight to pitcher vs batter stats. At this (real) point with 2 HRs in 4 games against votto this season I’m definitely starting throwing objects at my computer if Loe is left to face Votto again later this season. See here and here
Based on batter vs pitcher splits and the closer role, the only real option is Mitre or maybe Hawkins (or someone that’s never faced Votto before)
A couple other notable Votto splits
Estrada 1 (HR)/3 AB + 2BB – ick
Mitre 0/3 + 1 BB
Wolf 7/21 + 3BB (0 HR)
Narv 5/9 + 3BB (1 HR)
Saito 2/2
the 30 by oswalt
is bracket30bracket…somewhat like (30). to show that those two have faced 30 times.
basically
Votto owns everyone, lefty or righty, on the Brewer staff. Indicting RR for using Loe in this situation is tenuous. Sure, there were slightly better options, but there are no guarantees that anyone else would have done any better.
Isn't the point of managing
to use your slightly better options whenever you can?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jun 2, 2011 6:29 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think it is and DPR doesn't go with slightly better options
enough to think it is more than coincidence. That is why I vote do not approve in the tracking polls.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Yup, for sure
The probability of a different option producing a different outcome is small. But it’s not nothing. And that’s what you have to do in these situations, put pitchers in the position where they’re most likely to succeed. Loe was not in a position to succeed there.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I felt a lot better this morning
when I saw that the Cards lost.
I think the offense should shoulder some of the blame for last nights loss. 2 runs in the first and only one more the rest of the game isn’t going to get it done. Not using the bench in the 9th was inexcusable.
Lack of talent on the bench
This also bit us last night when we let Yuni and Counsell bat in the ninth inning. Its embarrassing when you are down by one in the ninth and you basically let two automatic outs hit in the ninth. We let Branyan go to the Angels and we dropped Boggs for Wilson who is about as lethal with the bat as Yuni and Counsell.
Ive said this several times now but this awful bench is going to cost us chances to tie and win games late and last night was a perfect example.
Lack of talent, or lack of using the bench?
The two guys on the bench were better options than both hitters in the 9th
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 2, 2011 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, if not using McGehee cost us one game here
But the full day off lets him clear his head and he starts hitting again like he did last year, then it pays out in the long run. Long odds, but trying to be the optimist.
I think not having Gamel or Kottaras on the big league roster hurts us here
I understand Gamel has to learn to play a new position, and George threatens Roenicke’s love for Nieves simply by being on the roster, but one of those guys coming up against Cordero instead of Counsell or Yuni would make me feel a heck of a lot better.
The bench options were bad. McGehee can’t hit right now (and who knows what’s up with that), and nobody else on the bench is any better. Josh Wilson, while he’s a new face and despite his home run two days ago, is simply atrocious at the plate and should not be considered an option.
Semi-related question: Is Zelous Wheeler injured? I see he has not been playing so I’m assuming he is, but I dont remember that happening. Because he might be a better idea than Wilson, whenever he gets healthy.
Kotsay and McGehee were both better options than Yuni and Counsell
I don’t think that’s really debatable.
Get a ife broseph
Kotsay, yes
Marginally better.
McGehee has been pretty awful lately and I’d rather have Counsell up there than him, honestly. I would rather have McGehee than Yuni at the plate, but that says more about Yuni than McGehee.
The plan, I think
was for Kotsay to hit for the pitcher. I don’t think they were going to burn him yet.
But yes, we agree.
That's a really dumb plan then
Shouldn’t be saving better options when they are down in the 9th.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 2, 2011 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm assuming RR would've brought McGehee in if someone got on
Unfortunately after Lucroy got out, the odds of a base runner weren’t very good. Isn’t this situation about the only reason Notsay is on the team? His veteran presence provides an automatic base runner.
Where are the trolls when you actually want them?
by SAE on Jun 2, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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