Shortstops and the trading deadline
by roguejim on Jun 16, 2011 5:08 AM CDT
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PrintDid you know that Yuni Betancourt has an OPS below .600, second-worst (hello, Alcides Escobar!) among starting shortstops? And that among major-league shortstops who have started as many games this season as Yuni, only four shortstops have committed more errors?
Of course you did -- you've been suffering through our shortstop play as much as anyone. And we pretty much knew this was coming when we traded for Zack Greinke. But, given the unforeseen struggles of Casey McGehee, the left side of our infield now looks like an offensive and defensive wasteland, and only the surprising offensive prowess by the likes of Jonathan Lucroy and Tony Plush has kept our season afloat. (Consider: a full season of Gomez in center, combined with a repeat of Jonathan Lucroy circa 2010, could have given us five spots in the lineup with an OPS of .630 or worse.)
I know we're pretty much stuck internally: we traded our Shortstop of the Future for our ace, Counsell's numbers aren't noticeably better than Yuni's, and not even I can delude myself into hopping on the Josh Wilson bandwagon. Pickings are slim outside the organization too, even if we had trade bait in the minors (which, of course, we don't). The free agent shortstops available don't inspire confidence, either. (Bobby Crosby? Didn't he sing White Christmas?)
Still, not all is lost. To the fold!
Shortstop is such a hard position to fill, that no one is going to trade us a long-term answer there -- which is fine, because we don't really have the resources for that kind of trade anyway. Sure, Jose Reyes would be nice, but we have neither the cash nor the trading chips to make that happen. The kind of player we can trade for would have to be someone whose current team isn't likely to be employing him 4 months from now.
Here's a list of shortstops who will become free agents after this season:
Clint Barmes (33)
Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Orlando Cabrera (37)
Jamey Carroll (37)
Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
Craig Counsell (41)
Adam Everett (35)
Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout
Alex Gonzalez (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
J.J. Hardy (29)
Omar Infante (30)
Cesar Izturis (32)
Julio Lugo (36)
John McDonald (37)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Nick Punto (34)
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
Miguel Tejada (38)
Jack Wilson (34)
Quite the murderer's row, eh? Still, for a three-month rental, I think someone from this list could be a major upgrade over what we have now, i.e., arguably the worst shortstop in all the majors. A couple of names to consider:
Omar Infante. Omar was primarily a shortstop in Detroit, and he's played short, second and center over his brief career. Although he's struggling in Florida right now (.612 OPS), he's had an OPS of .750 or better in his last three seasons, and he has an affordable $2.5 million contract. The Marlins are already 10 1/2 games out in a tough division; frankly, they have virtually no chance of catching the Phillies, and would have to leapfrog 8 teams to make the wild card. Can he revert to his pre-2011 ways? It'd be a low-risk play to find out.
J. J. Hardy. Hey, buddy! We missed you! Hey, don't be like that, we traded away Alcides Escobar, didn't we? Baltimore (did you know he's on Baltimore now?) is dead last in the AL East, and, like the Marlins, has virtually no reasonable chance at the playoffs this year. I have no idea how attached the Os are to him, especially given that he's missed a month this season already. Still, he's starting to hit, lifting his batting average by more than 50 points since the beginning of June, and the better he does now, the worse our chances for a trade. Maybe we can offer Gomez for him. Full circle, no corners.
There are other, equally inspiring talents on the list too. I pray to God we don't don't think we have the long-term answer at shortstop right now, and maybe that person is not on this list either. Still, we're in first place in Prince's likely last year as a Brewer. I think we can do better than Yuni without it costing that much.
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I really really really would be pleased if Hardy came back
Even if it would cost a lot to get him, as it’s looking with his batting average shooting up
This game is bigger than YOU or ME.
Without me, the game will go on...Without the game, I won't go on
I think people are underestimating Hardy's willingness to play for a serious contender
I don’t know the guy, but most athletes would jump to a situation as favorable as ours, especially looking at how long Baltimore could be in a building-up process of sorts
This game is bigger than YOU or ME.
Without me, the game will go on...Without the game, I won't go on
by toki47 on Jun 16, 2011 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's my thought now, too.
He’ll only be with the Brewers for 3 months and he knows he won’t be part of any shenanigans this time around. 2 years is a long time to hold a grudge and he still has a lot of friends on the Brewers roster (if not friends, then familiar faces). I don’t think he would have a real problem with a short-term stint in Miller Park given the opportunity.
by ecocd on Jun 16, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Next year
On the other hand, if Baltimore is having contract talks with him, maybe they can convince him that they’ll contend in the future. They have a lot of young assets on that team, and it’s not out of the question that they’ll be contenders come next year (especially if MLB institutes a second wild card team).
It’s possible he’d come back, but color me unconvinced.
I don't even care about his avg. Bat him 8th, and let him flash some leather.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I liked him at short
No drama. Good glove, every throw a 90mph dart at center-Fielder mass.
Also, he’s buddies with everybody on this team, and they would all (I imagine) enjoy having him back around. I dont think you can underestimate that.
I really want this to happen.
The team would like it, the fans would like it and he would be huge improvement.
We few, we happy few, we band of Brewers.
Wilson/Counsell
While I’m not exactly jumping up and down with the thought of a Counsell/Wilson platoon at SS, I think it would be infinitely better than trotting Yuni out there. OK, Wilson has definitely been hitting beyond his abilities right now, but he’s at least got a little bit of offensive upside and average/somewhat below average fielding ability. In other words – BTY (better than Yuni!).
Counsell’s bat looks to have pretty much given up the ghost at this point, but he’s hit better of late. At least you know that he will do the little things right (see squeeze bunt), and he’s still probably an above average fielder at SS. Again, BTY, but with the caveat that there’s no way Craig can play SS everyday at this point in his career (enter the Wilson platoon).
Looking at your upcoming free agent list, I honestly don’t see anyone on that list who I believe is (A) actually in the realm of possibilities that the Crew could trade for and (B) someone I’d actually be willing to give up ANYTHING for (unless a team wants to swap shortstops – I’d trade Yuni for pretty much anyone on the list in a heartbeat).
Unavailable
By my reckoning, here is the list of guys that the Brewers have no shot at trading for:
Ronny Cedeno – no way Pittsburgh is shipping him to Milwaukee for anything the Brewers can reasonably offer. Ain’t happening.
Furcal – also not happening.
Alex Gonzalez – he’s too good a player for the Braves to give up.
Hardy – sorry to break the bubble, but Baltimore likes him (rumors of a contract extension are floating around). The Brewers don’t have anything to trade short of Fielder that the Orioles would be remotely interested in. And also, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if J.J. himself would let this trade happen. I know he doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but I just cannot see him coming back – Melvin burned that bridge too well. It’s a nice dream, but it’s not gonna happen.
Infante – There’s no way the Marlins turn around and get rid of the primary piece they got for Dan Uggla in the offseason. Sorry.
Reyes, Rollins – Keep dreamin.
Of course, this leaves me open to the chance of ridicule if I’m wrong, but these guys seem unachievable.
Hardy will never come back
Not only did Melvin burn him, he was never fond of playing in Milwaukee to begin with.
That sounds like pure speculation to me
The second half. What evidence do you have of that?
by cwolf20 on Jun 16, 2011 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
He's always preferred warm-weather locations
He’s from Arizona, and he’s mentioned several times that prefers to play in the heat. As for holding a grudge
“It’s been simmering. There are questions in my mind,” Hardy said. "The more and more I think about it, the more I think, ‘Why would they do this to me?’ … “It beat me up inside. For them to give up on me this year, it kind of hurt. I definitely feel like I was being punished.”
"he was never fond of playing in Milwaukee to begin with."`
That quote from JJ does not support him never being fond of playing in Milwaukee. I’m not saying it’s not necessarily true, but there’s little to no evidence of it being true.
by cwolf20 on Jun 16, 2011 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
you said
he was never fond of playing in MILW, not that he was hurt by what management did…
booyakasha!
he was never fond of playing in Milwaukee to begin with
He’s from Arizona, and he’s mentioned several times that prefers to play in the heat.
This is still just speculation
He may have preferred warmer weather, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t enjoy playing here.
by cwolf20 on Jun 18, 2011 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He said at one point that he always pictured himself a Brewer
But he only said it after he was gone, and in the context of “and then they screwed me out of a year and traded me to the Twins.” He might still be with the team if he didn’t refuse to play 3B.
Infante & the Marlins
The Uggla trade was, inexplicably, largely a salary dump & the Marlins just traded the primary piece they got for Miguel Cabrera for two middle relievers last offseason.
A few minor pieces and the chance to save a million bucks go a long way in Miami.
by The Left Button on Jun 16, 2011 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
why not furcal?
He is hurt right now, but he should be back soon and is making like 12mil this year, and apparently the Dodgers aren’t going to be able to make payroll, so maybe they would trade him as a salary dump. They have a young guy up now playing SS who looks pretty good. Also, Carroll has been playing well for them there this year
Unwanted
To go along with that, there’s a whole bunch of guys on that list that I don’t WANT on the Brewers:
Yuniesky Betancourt
Jamey Carroll (37)
Adam Everett (35)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
John McDonald (37)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Miguel Tejada (38)
Jack Wilson (34)
Sorry, but no.
Maybe
I guess I didn’t realize his batting numbers were quite as good as they are. I guess he’d be a possibility, but the stats say that he really isn’t a good fielder at SS, he’s 37 years old, and he only hits for average (career .351 SLG). He might be OK, but honestly, isn’t he just Craig Counsell with a year or two off the tires?
He’d be BTY for sure, but I honestly would rather have Wilson/Counsell and NOT give up someone from the minors to get a guy like Carroll. The Dodgers aren’t going to give him away for free.
Hooray for my fantasy team!
I hate Noah's guts right now.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jun 16, 2011 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Possibilities
OK, so who does that leave from the list that MIGHT be a possibility?
Clint Barmes (33) – I guess he could round back to the form he showed in Colorado, but I don’t know that I’d give anything of value up for him.
Orlando Cabrera (37) – I don’t really like the idea of trading for him, but this is actually the guy I was hoping the Crew would sign in the offseason after we got Yuni. He’s old and doesn’t hit much, but he can still play SS (although he was terrible defensively last year, but I think he’s still got something left).
Cesar Izturis (32) – This would have been the Baltimore SS that the Crew had a chance at, but he just had elbow surgery. They’re hoping he can return by late summer, though, so if he heals fast, he could be an intriguing trade deadline possibility. Again, can’t hit, but he can use the glove.
Julio Lugo (36) – he’d be available (he’s in AAA for the Braves), but he’s not really any good. Maybe if this was 2004 or 2005, but he’s been simply awful defensively for about 4 years now and doesn’t swing the bat well either. I’ll pass.
Nick Punto (34) – he’s be a good upgrade, but he’s on the DL right now and I really doubt that St. Louis would want to part with him if he comes back healthy. I don’t really believe that Tony Larussa wants to go with Pujols at 3B as much as he’s had to, and look at the other names who have been playing infield for the Cards. I think Punto probably is staying where he is.
Edgar Renteria (35) – he’d probably be available, and while he doesn’t really do anything great anymore (he’s probably a little below average defensively, and average or so offensively), he’d be BTY!! Also, Edgar is one of those guys who’s been on several World Series winners, and those guys seem to be good luck for teams, so I wouldn’t be against the Crew trying to pick him up at the deadline.
Marco Scutaro (36) – If the Red Sox would eat some of the contract, I’d think about it. He can still hit the ball pretty well for a SS, and though he’s not Ozzie Smith, he’s BTY with the glove. He’s also seen time at 2B and 3B, so he could spell other positions if needed. He’s presumably available with Jed Lowrie at SS for the Sox, but what do the Brewers have that the Red Sox would possibly want? We don’t have top pitching prospects to offer, we really don’t have any player that would upgrade any position on their roster, so I’m having a tough time seeing how this one would work out. Maybe if they get an injury to someone, but this looks doubtful.
Punto and Renteria
Don’t think either one would be available to us. No way the Cards or Reds want to help us out of our SS problem when they’re in the thick of the division race.
Renteria
Totally agree on Punto – he’s too valuable to the Cardinals for them to give him up, and it looks like the Cards will be battling the Crew for the division throughout the summer. Also, Punto’s the kind of player Larussa loves (defense, lots of positions/lineup slots available, etc.)
Renteria could be available since the Reds really only use him sparingly. I know it’s not really likely given that they’ll probably be in the division race, but if the Crew gave up something decent, I think they’d consider it. And there’s a chance they’ll fall back out of the race a bit. Renteria is not really contributing to Cincinnati right now – if they can get a valuable asset from the Brewers minor leagues that will help them in the future (and also hurt the Brewers in the future), they might make a deal. Unlikely, but possible.
Conclusion
So, I guess my conclusion is this: if that’s the list of available SS, I’m not really excited about anything realistic happening. I could maybe see a move for Cabrera, Izturis, Punto, or Renteria happening. Izturis and Renteria look like the most likely candidates to me. If either of those guys can actually stay healthy and play almost every day, I think they’d be good choices for a SS upgrade. I’m not certain the Brewers really have anyone to trade that would even bring in one of those guys, though.
As poor as Yuni plays the position
Tejada is still the clear title holder as Worst SS in baseball. Betancourt’s fWAR, however, would’ve “lagged the league” by a fair margin in 2010 so he’s just lucky to have an even worse SS to look down upon.
I would take either option to Yuni. Given that a team with deep pockets will be taking Reyes off the market, there isn’t a huge market for SS so they can probably afford someone as anyone would be an improvement. Previously, I thought I had seen that Hardy was under team control for one more year, but it doesn’t appear that’s the case.
what about Zelous Wheeler?
He’s hitting well at AAA. I know he’s been playing primarily third base this year, but he played 92 games of (apparently horrid) defense at short last season for Huntsville. But, why not have someone with a .385 OBP that can’t field rather than someone with a .250 OBP who can’t field?
By Aug 1, maybe Hainley or Maysonet are ready
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Jun 16, 2011 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Not one of those 3
Are a good option at the most important infield position, for a playoff team. Its also very likely that none of them have any sort of impact at all during their entire careers as major leaguers (if they ever make it).
As much as I don't want to agree
My opinion is that BtC speaks the truth. The reason Betancourt is still starting is because the options in AAA are similarly poor no matter how poorly Yuni plays. When the Brewers lost Cruz to the Rangers system, they lost their only replacement-level shortstop in the entire system.
Did Suppan remained in the rotation because the Brewers didn't have better options?
No, it was because they were paying him a shit ton.
If the Brewers can find a replacement level shortstop, bye bye YunE-6. Hell, if they can find a shortstop that can play defense, bye bye YunE-6.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jun 17, 2011 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
It doesn't make sense to trade for a replacement level SS
The Brewers don’t have a replacement level shortstop in their system. Everyone, save Yuni himself, believes the Brewers need to find a replacement.
Melvin, however, can’t just hire the first replacement level shortstop he can get his hands on external to the system. He needs to find the best shortstop he can get with the resources he has. It doesn’t make sense to trade for a replacement level guy, DFA Betancourt, then trade for a +1.0 WAR guy two weeks later and DFA the Replacement Level Guy.
If the Brewers had someone in AAA, they could do just that. They could DFA Betancourt, bring up Internal Option and then send Internal Option back down in two weeks when they trade for a +1.0 WAR shortstop. The Brewers would use no resources to get their replacement level guy up. That’s the life of a AAA replacement guy. If he performs well for two weeks at the major league level, he will get a September call up and improve on his chances to catch on with a major league team next year.
It’s also what made Cruz’ decision so unusual. He had to have known that if he stayed in Nashville there was a good chance he would be called up in June, especially if Yuni tanked. There were likely external non-baseball factors at play in the decision to leave.
You dont think the Dodgers/Mets/Pirates/Marlins/someone
have a replacement level shortstop in their system that they wouldn’t be willing to trade for cash considerations?
Please note: I have no clue what those teams have in AAA
by BrewCrewBrian on Jun 17, 2011 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I think that the Dodgers
Have a suitable SS replacement on their team right now (and that is for their oft injured All Star level player Rafeal Rucal) in Dee Gordon.
This situation makes it easy for them to move a guy like Jamey Carroll, who is currently a 2 WAR guy with adequate defense, and on base ability, to save some money and get a small prospect in return like
If the Brewers could get 1 extra win by dumping Yuni salary and less than stellar production and it only costing them a Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, or Heckathorn, then its definitely worth it. Carroll is the most easily available probably, and will cost the least. And that win could be the difference come october.
It's still a pain, though
Making room on the 40-man, swapping people on the 25-man, finding room in Nashville, etc. I don’t think they’ll make the effort to grab a SS beyond the one they get as a permanent replacement for Yuni.
Finding room on the 25 man for a SS isn't hard
Bye Bye YunE-6.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jun 17, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
They're not good options, but we don't need a good option, we just need a replacement level player to stop the bleeding
2011 ZiPS:
Zelous Wheeler = .297 wOBA (most likely poor defense)
Edwin Maysonet = .272 wOBA (most likely average defense)
Hainley Statia = .268 wOBA (plus defense)
None of those options are good, but Betancourt has a .250 wOBA right now with horrendous defense. Everything suggests he should play better going forward than he is right now, but I don’t see any signs of improvement at all.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Has Wheeler been hurt
He’s only played in 14 games so far this year. Thats not really something you like to see in a guy you might need to call up to help the major league club. As a shortstop, he is probably a replacement level replacement. Which in this case maybe gets you 1 game.
Maysonet with average defense gives you an even more horrible bat than Betancourt does and proably end up worse than Yuni. And Statia you get yourself a Alcides Escobar type of situation. So the options down in the farm system right now are not attractive at all reallty.
Wheeler is the most attractive option, but not one I would put a lot of faith in given that his playing time has been so sparse this year so far, and he really wasnt projected to have any sort of impact even if he played well in AAA.
I still think that Carroll is the best option out there, the most affordable, and probably the most realistic. And with that, you get more than what is available with the in house option.
Yeah, Wheeler was on the DL most of the season.
I don’t have a lot of faith in those guys either, but it’s hard to get worse than a .250 wOBA with terrible defense.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Here's a guy...
Brent Lillibridge, currently w/ the White Sox, might be available if they start losing some more games. He’s never played SS full-time in the show, is having a bit of a career year as a utility player (157 OPS+ in 42 GP) in his age-27 year. He might cost more than the Mustache is willing (or able) to give up, but I’d love to see him on the Crew and I think he would definitely be BTY!
Aaron Hill?
Albeit he hasn’t played SS since his minor league days and he’s a somewhat of a dismal last 2 years. He’s in his contract year, has an excellent glove and hit 36 HR 2 years ago.
It's been a few days. Do the Brewers still have Yuni at SS?
Yes? Damn. I was hoping they smuggled Scutaro out of Boston in a curiously large and heavy suitcase.
by ecocd on Jun 20, 2011 9:05 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
However
Now Escobar is out OPSing him, since he’s been on an insane tear the past two weeks.
by Archibaldcrane on Jun 21, 2011 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:11 AM CDT)
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