Today's Matchup: Brewers (Wolf) at Red Sox (Lester)

What most Brewers fans were feeling like after last night

After last night's loss, today's pitching match up doesn't look all that appealing on the surface.

The Red Sox will be sending Jon Lester (9-2, 3.73) to the mound.  The 27 year old Lester has been outstanding in his career, with a 3.57 ERA and 3.67 FIP over the course of six seasons.  He had his best season in 2010, when he had a 3.25 ERA and 3.13 FIP, but has taken a step back this year to a 3.73 ERA and 4.02 FIP.  I'm sure that's due in part to his K/9 being down one from last year (8.76 in 2011) and his HR/9 being up to 1.11.  His bb/9 of 3.32 is right around his career rate.  Lester is clearly a very dangerous pitcher, though, having compiled 17 fWAR in the past three seasons and1.3 so far in 2011.  If it weren't for Josh Beckett's comeback year, it would be easy to claim that Lester is the best pitcher the Red Sox have. 

Interestingly, Lester has been much better on the road than he has been in Fenway this year.  Outside of Boston, he allows a .200/.291/.367 opponent slash line, but at home those numbers jump to .312/.386/.416.  Right handers hit to the tune of a .776 OPS this year against Lester while lefties hit for a .491 OPS. 

Lester throws a pretty god mix of five different pitches: A 93 MPH four seamer (38.1% of the time), an 89 MPH cutter (25%), a 76 MPH curveball (13.6%), a 92 MPH sinker (13%) and an 85 MPH changeup (11%). 

Lester has faced just two current Brewers at least ten times in his career.  In 13 PA, Yuniesky Betancourt has hit .400/.538/.800 with one home run and three walks.  Josh Wilson, in 12 PA, has hit .000/.083/.000, having only gotten on base once, via walk. 

Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.20) will seek to continue his strong start to the season.  This is the Randy Wolf the Brewers had been hoping for when they signed him to a three year contract following a 2009 season when he had a 3.17 ERA and 3.96 FIP.  His 2011 numbers are actually fairly similar to that season.  Consider:

2009 2011
ERA 3.17 3.20
FIP 3.96 4.17
xFIP 4.10 4.09
K/9 6.72 6.94
BB/9 2.44 2.77
HR/9 1.01 1.07
HR/FB% 9.2% 9.3%

 

If Wolf continues being as good as he has been, it will go a long way towards the Brewers making the playoffs.  His last start, he went seven shutout innings against the Cubs, giving up just six hits and no walks while striking out seven.  Wolf has faced three Red Sox hitters at least ten times.  Here is how they have fared:

PA Slash Line
Adrian Gonzalez 18 .353/.389/.353
Mike Cameron 16 .231/.373/.231
JD Drew 12 .364/.417/1.182

 

Lineup:

DH Rickie Weeks
RF Corey Hart
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
2B Josh Wilson
CF Carlos Gomez
C George Kottaras

Bullpen:

Tim Dillard pitched 2 innings (47 pitches) yesterday.
Marco Estrada pitched 4 innings (66 pitches) yesterday.

Sergio Mitre
pitched 2 innings (33 pitches) Thursday.
John Axford
pitched 1 inning (20 pitches) Wednesday.
Kameron Loe pitched 1 inning (13 pitches) Wednesday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched 1 inning (12 pitches) Wednesday.
Mark DiFelice is back!

Weather: Boston was supposed to have storms from 3-5, but according to weather.com it should clear up in time for the game.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Brew Crew Ball

You must be a member of Brew Crew Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Brew Crew Ball. You should read them.

Join Brew Crew Ball

You must be a member of Brew Crew Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Brew Crew Ball. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker