Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Greinke) vs Rays (Hellickson)

Ok, let's try this again.

The Brewers are still looking for their second interleague win of the season, and they'll do it with Zack Greinke (5.23 ERA, 2.55 FIP) on the mound. Greinke snapped a streak of four straight quality starts his last time out, allowing eight runs (six earned) on eight hits over 5.1 innings against the Cubs on Thursday. He tied a season high by striking out ten in the game while walking two.

We've had a lot of conversation about what is or isn't wrong with Greinke in this space, and I won't rehash it here. I will, however, present three stats that demonstrate the difference between the Greinke we're seeing in 2011 and the rest of his career:

Stat 2011 Career
BABIP .360 .309
HR/FB 13.5% 8.7%
LD% 26.6% 20.6%

Greinke faced the Rays twice in 2011, and was very good on both occasions. If you combine the two starts he allowed just three runs on eight hits over 15 innings, walking two and striking out 15. Six Rays have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Johnny Damon 28 .320 .393 .480 .873
B.J. Upton 17 .188 .235 .250 .485
Ben Zobrist 15 .214 .267 .357 .624
Casey Kotchman 13 .000 .077 .000 .077
Evan Longoria 13 .154 .154 .385 .538
Kelly Shoppach 12 .000 .083 .000 .083

Greinke will face Jeremy Hellickson (3.09 ERA, 4.12 FIP), making his 14th start in his first full major league season. He's been very good this season despite some numbers that would suggest he shouldn't be: He's only striking out 5.8 batters per nine, compared to 9.8 over six seasons in the minors. The numbers would also suggest he's been pretty lucky: Opposing batters are hitting just .224 on balls in play against him this season. He last pitched on Wednesday against the Red Sox and allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings, walking two and striking out two.

If you haven't seen Hellickson pitch before, get ready to see a lot of changeups. He has a low 90's fastball but throws the change almost a third of the time, along with some curveballs. FanGraphs rates both his fastball and change as above average pitches this season.

Hellickson, as you might expect, has never faced the Brewers. Yuniesky Betancourt faced him one time as a member of the Royals, and is 0-for-1.

Tonight's lineup:

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Nyjer Morgan
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
RF Corey Hart
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
C Jonathan Lucroy
P Zack Greinke

And in the bullpen:

Mark DiFelice pitched an inning last night (25 pitches) and also pitched on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched an inning last night (14 pitches) and also pitched on Sunday.
Tim Dillard pitched .1 innings (15 pitches) last night.
Sergio Mitre pitched 3 innings (48 pitches) Sunday.
John Axford and Kameron Loe last pitched on Saturday.
Marco Estrada last pitched on Friday, but likely won't pitch unless the team is confident Shaun Marcum is healthy.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Brew Crew Ball

You must be a member of Brew Crew Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Brew Crew Ball. You should read them.

Join Brew Crew Ball

You must be a member of Brew Crew Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Brew Crew Ball. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker