Friday's Frosty Mug

by Kyle Lobner on Jun 24, 2011 11:00 AM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

I feel like Craig Counsell should start at shortstop tonight. Any objections?

Some things to read while making short people proud.

How'd you spend your off day? Nyjer Morgan used the free time to go fly a kite, and Prince Fielder raised over $28,000 for charity at his bowl-a-thon.

Meanwhile, the rest of us spent the day discussing the merits of Ron Roenicke, who has quickly fallen from grace in many of our eyes. Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball has a look at three occasions on Wednesday where Roenicke both made a puzzling decision and skipped an opportunity to explain afterwards.

After a full day of that, I think we're all ready to be back to baseball tonight when the Brewers and Twins open an interleague series. Here's CBS Sports' series preview. When the Twins arrive at the park today they're expected to have both reliever Joe Nathan and DH Jim Thome back on the roster.

This weekend's best pitching matchup will likely come tomorrow, when Yovani Gallardo faces off against Francisco Liriano. Jeff Sullivan of Baseball Nation used Gallardo as an example in his Handy Guide To Pitchers As Hitters.

This week's off day still didn't give the Brewers enough time to find a viable shortstop. Hindsight is 20/20, but here's what Brad from View From Bernie's Chalet had to say while looking back at the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade:

The Brewers have received no gain after the trade that sent J.J. Hardy away, and right now he would fill the only hole in the lineup that is keeping the Brewers from being successful.

Down on the farm Takashi Saito pitched a perfect inning and struck one batter out for Nashville last night, needing just 11 pitches to do so. I can't remember if this is his third or fourth rehab assignment. He's likely due for at least one more appearance in Nashville before the Brewers consider activating him.

In the minors:

The Brewers have come to terms with another draft pick: Canadian high school catcher Dustin Houle, the Brewers' eighth round pick, signed and received a $150,000 bonus. I haven't heard where he's headed but I'd be surprised if it's not Arizona.
The affiliates went 3-2 last night and Helena catcher Parker Berberet stayed hot, going 2-for-3 with a double and two walks in Helena's 6-5, 12 inning win over Missoula. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
Berberet, a 25th round pick in the 2011 draft, is now hitting .400/.571/1.471 after three professional games.
Yesterday I mentioned that Wisconsin starting pitchers Tyler Thornburg and Austin Ross were being promoted to Brevard County. Chris Mehring reports that Wisconsin's second half rotation will feature Brooks Hall, Jimmy Nelson, Jameson Dunn, Matt Miller and Maverick Lasker.
Thornburg will also be the only Brewer in the MLB Futures Game (FanShot).
Baseball America has a story on Mark Rogers, but it's subscriber-only.

Here's another reminder of how lucky the Brewers are to have good ownership: The AV Club Milwaukee has a profile of Mark Attanasio.

Today in power rankings: Yahoo has the Brewers at 5.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Placed outfielder Josh Willingham on the DL with a strained Achilles tendon.
Braves: Infielder/outfielder Joe Mather has refused an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.
Nationals: Manager Jim Riggleman has resigned. Bench coach John McLaren will serve as interim manager. (FanShot)

While the rest of the division was off last night, the Cardinals beat the Phillies to pull back into a first place tie in the NL Central. You already know that and much more if you've read this morning's edition of Around The NL Central, which is low on sodium and big on taste.

In former Brewers:

Brett Lawrie, who was expected to be called up to the Blue Jays weeks ago, has suffered another setback: He still can't grip a bat with the hand he broke several weeks ago and isn't expected to come off the DL until August.
Royals Review has a critique of Ned Yost's player development abilities.
Phillies broadcaster Gary Matthews interviewed former Milwaukee Brave Red Schoendienst. (h/t BBTF)

Here's an injury you don't see every day. After allowing five baserunners and recording just three outs in two outings this week against the Brewers, Rays pitcher J.P. Howell was sent home for examination and diagnosed with gout in his left foot.

Elsewhere in the bizarre: Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton thinks the ability to hit during the day is tied to eye color.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a new business idea.

Drink up.

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Comments

Hardy/Gomez trade

Most of us thought it dumb at the time. Still proves to be true.

by Mr. McGehee on Jun 24, 2011 11:13 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Made sense with Escobar

but then Escbar gets traded and woops, why did Brewers trade Hardy.
I guess there was no way around not trading escobar if Brewers wanted Greinke.
Escobar has begun to hit the ball too and his fielding is wow…it’s painful to play what if, but Greinke is a Brewer and I like that. I just kind of wish the Brewers would have dealt with this in the off season.

If Jack Cust is in left field, think triple.

by Rob Deer For President on Jun 24, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions

I know Doug has said that Halladay refused to waive his NTC to come to the Brewers

but I was all for them trading Escobar for Halladay the year he dumped Hardy off for Gomez and some baseballs. The book on Hardy always included great defense, and his two years of great offense really helped.

The Orioles are batting Hardy leadoff. Probably the slowest leadoff batter in all of baseball, but its working. The guy is looking shades of 2008 right now.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jun 24, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions

AND THEY GOT HIM FOR A BAG OF FREAKING BALLS!!!

God this pisses me off so much.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Jun 24, 2011 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions

^^^^THIS!

People were mad that we traded one of the best offensive NL SS for what was, and still is, and backup CF. Sure Escobar was here, but the trade was a crappy one. Not mad Escobar is gone, just that the trade was dumb and JJ is hitting when healthy again. Good job Mustache.

by Mr. McGehee on Jun 24, 2011 1:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

OK to trade Hardy, but could of got way more..

I don’t know how long Melvin shopped him around? Did he even consider other offers?

If Jack Cust is in left field, think triple.

by Rob Deer For President on Jun 24, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Thus the famous comment from the Tigers' GM that he never recieved a call, although it was widely known that they needed a SS.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jun 24, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

not quite a bag of ball

Well, the Twins are running Jim Hoey out there like he’s Kameron Loe Jr. but that still doesn’t mean he’s any good.

by morineko on Jun 24, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions

well why take the junior when we'd gladly give up the real thing?

by Hyatt on Jun 24, 2011 3:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Wasn't a dumb trade

It was obviously a mistake in retrospect because Escobar didn’t work out and they could have just traded him with more value when he was still in the minors, but hindsight is 20/20. A year after the Brewers traded him, the Twins traded Hardy for two crappy minor league relievers, so I think Gomez was a pretty decent return.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions

We forget how bad Hardy was playing

From mid-July on, JJ had no HRs and an OPS of .587 despite a BAbip of .280. He wasn’t just getting unlucky, he was bad.

by nullacct on Jun 24, 2011 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes

and then Doug Melvin screamed to the entire world “I AM GOING TO TRADE HARDY, SO I WILL GET HIM ONE MORE YEAR OF CONTROL FOR YOU ALL, SINCE HE IS SUCKING, COOL BRO? LOLOL”.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jun 24, 2011 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Evaluating the trade at the time of the trade

it was a bad deal.

But we’ve been up and down that road, and I know neither of us is changing our opinions.

Obviously now, in hindsight, it looks worse with Hardy performing quite well this year. But I won’t say “look at how well Hardy was doing, it was stupid to trade him 2 years ago!”.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jun 24, 2011 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions

you've seen Carlos Gomez play

he is marginally better than what he was 2 years ago, when he was bad. So yes, I will say “who cares how JJ is playing now, Carlos Gomez was and is bad, so it was a bad move to trade him 2 years ago.”

by Hyatt on Jun 24, 2011 3:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Except Gomez isn't all bad

He’s just bad offensively, and great defensively – just like Hardy.

by nullacct on Jun 24, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Except Hardy had been good offensively in the past.

Gomez has always been a disaster at the plate.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jun 24, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think anyone disagrees that Hardy > Gomez

That wasn’t the full context of the trade though.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Out of curiosity, who would you rather have in Center Field?

Mark Kotsay, or JJ Hardy?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jun 24, 2011 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

C) Prince Fielder

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Bill Hall

"...just throw that pill over the plate and I'll make it happen." - Tony Plush

by thefreewheelin76 on Jun 24, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

I think they would both be pretty poor defensively

Have to give Hardy the edge on offense this year.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Nyjer Morgan?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jun 24, 2011 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes on Counsell playing SS tonite..

I’m guessing here, but CC must have of one of the higher pitches seen per at bat total in baseball.

If Jack Cust is in left field, think triple.

by Rob Deer For President on Jun 24, 2011 11:36 AM CDT reply actions

Actually..

Counsell is no where near the top…He is seeing 3.85 pitches per plate appearance, but it is still better than Yuni at 3.08.

If Jack Cust is in left field, think triple.

by Rob Deer For President on Jun 24, 2011 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions

Random question

How does pitch selection work in a game? I know the pitcher always has veto power, but is it the catcher that decides the pitch and location for every pitch? I know the “calls a good game” saying grates on everyone’s nerves, but isn’t pitch selection a really important part of the game?

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

random answer

I always trust a pitcher who shakes off the catcher alot more. He knows what he wants to throw rather than following the catcher and whatever he or the manager/pitching coach signals from the dugout. Of course, when you get a young arrogant pitcher out there who think s he is invincible..maybe like Kyle Drabek trying to be Greg Maddux, he might be better off shutting up and listeing to the catcher/signals from the dugout.
We always think of the dual between pitcher and batter, but there are so many duals within duals and even same team duel…the pitcher and catcher deciding on a pitch is definitely one of the more interesting ones….Lone Wolfe versus Lucroy…
Ya gotta love the way a catcher snifs up a batter after he’s locked in and glaring at the pitcher…

If Jack Cust is in left field, think triple.

by Rob Deer For President on Jun 24, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

"Don't take my Cutter away"

- Kyle Drabek

- – -

He didn’t really say that. I wonder if it’s both a blessing and a curse to have a manager less than a year-removed from being a pitching coach.

by Jess'HittheBall on Jun 24, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Before games, there is a meeting to discuss the plan.

The starting pitcher, catcher, and pitching coach (plus maybe some more) review scouting reports and discuss how best to handle each batter.

Then, when they get onto the field, the catcher is responsible for “calling” the pitch. Sometimes this is done based on the catcher’s idea, other times the pitch is signaled to him from the dugout.

The pitcher then chooses to accept or shake off the sign. Catcher suggests another pitch, if the pitcher still doesn’t like it, normally there is a mound meeting to get things straight.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jun 24, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks

I had figured it would be something like that. Tom Tango said earlier this year that pitch selection and the game theory behind it was one of the areas for exploration in current sabermetric research. Every time I think of doing something, it only takes 15 minutes with Google to find someone that has already done work, if not extensive work, in the area.

I enjoy baseball at a completely new level than I had only two years ago. I feel like I should contribute something back to the community given how much I’ve learned.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Something I noticed during Yo's outing in Chicago

He hardly veered from this sequence;
FB FB FB SL(ider)
FB FB FB SL
FB FB FB SL
FB….

That was the 1st inning. And it did not change each time a new batter stepped up. The second inning, he started FB FB SL (Continuing from where he left off in the first).

Yo really stuck to this. Eventually, there were a few CHs sprinkled in. Once it got to the 5th or 6th, he dropped the 1st CU and it was a huge statement. I’ve yet to see such a simple system utilized by another pitcher. Against the Cubs, Yo must have been very comfortable with this.
I’m going to pay close attention to the next start because I wonder if this is why he works fast. His sequences may change, but going just 4 pitches and repeating them does not help opposing hitters too much. Even if they know what’s coming.
*However, the Reds and the Mets may have thought otherwise!

by Jess'HittheBall on Jun 24, 2011 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions

Announcers always talk about changing the approach each time they face a hitter

So the first time it’s fastballs, but the third time around there will have to be a curve or a change. There will always be exceptions like Sheets or Woods’ unhittable curveball or Hart’s 2008 inability to lay off a slider down and a away. Overall, it seems like they must change their rhythm and strategy each time they face a batter, but not necessarily across hitters.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Ecocd -

Definitely… but this is why I bring it up. I’ve never seen a pitcher stretch a sequence across hitters (let alone, keep it around during the 2nd ABs). I’m not saying anyone’s wrong.
It’s just sort of frustrating for me, because I’ve never seen such a rigid approach by any other pitcher. I’ll try to get you a gameday link. It was odd, but quite effective.

I’m of the mindset that Announcers are annoying at times. Since Rock was a catcher, I don’t think it’s my place to say much. But maybe people could explain things a bit better. I really think Gallardo kept it simple and made the sequence look complicated from varying speeds; kind of like adding dynamics.

p.s. I’m always looking for music-like patterns, so I may have read too much into this. It seemed kind of percussive, I suppose : )

by Jess'HittheBall on Jun 24, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions

JC Romero released today.

That has the potential to be a helpful addition.

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Jun 24, 2011 2:36 PM CDT reply actions

Cards have their irons in that fire already.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jun 24, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Depends

Are we talking JC Romero, Phillies 2008? Or JC Romero, Angels 2006?

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Brewers draft pick Tommy Toledo pitching in the College World Series right now

You can watch it for free on ESPN3 online.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Cardinals' RISP numbers

So I’m watching the Cards/Phillies game on MLB network last night, and one of the announcers states that the Cardinals as a team are batting > .300 RISP for the season. Damn. Now I know that we’re (mostly) skeptical about numbers like RISP, since there’s a big luck factor involved. So it occurs to me to wonder what their BABIP w/RISP is. Problem is, I can’t seem to find the number anywhere. B-Ref lists their team overall BABIP as .308 (league average is .294) but there’s no mention of team RISP numbers (either with BABIP or without). Anyone know of a site where we can find it?

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:15 PM CDT reply actions

.332 BABIP with RISP

Baseball Reference: team batting splits

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Fangraphs has it too in leaderboard format

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Woah

.362 wOBA as a team with men in scoring. That’s like having 2010 Corey Hart at the plate with every RISP. Even if they weren’t really lucky with their BABIP, that should still come down considerably over time.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, that's what I was figuring. Or at least hoping.

There’s no guarantee of regression obviously, but that .332 seems unsustainable.

It does go a long way towards explaining why we’ve spent most of the season chasing them in the standings, though.

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions

It really sticks out on the leaderboard.

Their RISP wOBA is a full 20 points higher than the Yankees (#2 overall). And their BABIP of .332 is also the highest, with only the Indians (.328) and Braves (.313) also over .310.

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions

And their OPS is over 50 points higher than the Yankees and Rockies (tied at #2)

So pick whatever stat you want, if a Cardinals fan starts giving you any grief about the Brewers being “lucky.”

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions

For reference

The Cardinals overall: .271.344/.415 (BABIP .308)
Cardinals with RISP: .302/.387/.462 (BABIP .332)

The Brewers overall: .254/.320/.417 (BABIP .287 – thanks Yuni)
Brewers with RISP: .245/.328/.383 (BABIP .283)

Cardinals will have a correction with a stretch of lowered run output at some point. The Brewers are at about expected run production.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

That isn't how it works.

They will not necessarily have a correction streak. They will probably be about average which will pull their overall numbers down a little bit.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jun 24, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions

No, a cold streak isn't the only way that will happen

Though to make up that difference with only 86 games left, they’re more likely than not to hit a streak where they’ll frustratingly leave a lot of men on base. They could very well have a charmed 2nd half, as well, and keep that team BABIP with RISP north of .330.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I didn't say that.

I said they would play around average for the rest of the year which would leave them lower than they are now but still better than average.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jun 24, 2011 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks. I didn't check the splits page, obviously.

by Brew Angel on Jun 24, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Standard Wolf line up

Via twitter:

Weeks 2B, Morgan CF, Braun LF, Fielder 1B, McGehee 3B, Hart RF, Betancourt SS, Kottaras C, Wolf P http://atmlb.com/jjYjj1

Counsell not starting tonight, unfortunately. No offensive black hole, though, so this should be an interesting game. Hitters 1-8 are capable of putting up 10 HR seasons. No truly safe spot to hang a pitch.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 4:06 PM CDT reply actions

Why bother throwing (and risk hanging) a breaking ball to Yuni..

Just put fastballs off the plate and watch him hack.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jun 24, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions

They're throwing him fewer fastballs than ever

Only 45.5% fastballs compared to 58.5% in 2009 and 55.3% in 2010. So far, he’s seen an increase in sliders and curveballs. Really, though, they’re all negative pitch value pitches for Yuni, so I guess it doesn’t matter what you throw him.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Jun 24, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I also wonder if that’s influenced by the fact that pitchers tend to want first-pitch strikes, and that many of Betancourt’s PA don’t last past the first pitch.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jun 24, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

"No offensive black hole, though, so this should be an interesting game."

Perhaps you didn’t see who’s playing SS (not counting most recent performance)?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jun 24, 2011 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11