Disclamer: This is just the rules thread, do not post predictions here.
Updated on 8/29/11
First of all, I would like to start by saying that this is not my original idea. Here's the background behind it. As I've visited the different SB Nation baseball blogs, I've noticed the different ways that blogs have helped their fans feel connected. When I visited the Florida Marlins blog (Fish Stripes), I noticed this simple contest that they put together. For every game, anyone could post a prediction about what would happen during the game. It's simple, anyone can participate, and it can provide a new way to feel connected to other people on the blog. (Click here for a link to the original game that they put together.)
I'd like to use a similar game to that on here. The name here will be Prognostikeggers. Here's the basic idea behind the competition. What do you see for that day's game? From now until the end of the season (including postseason, hopefully), every day this contest would occur.
More on this after the jump..First of all, here are the predictions you would need to make each day:
- Line Score (Runs-Hits-Errors)
- Brewers' MVP by WPA
- Series-Specific Prediction (Sausage Race for home series, away series will be announced before each series.)
- Bonus Prediction (A prediction of your choice.)
Let's break them down.
- Attendance - Predict the attendance for each game. Anyone within 1,000 of the actual attendance will get 1 point. If no one is within 1,000 of the actual attendance, whoever is closest will get 1 point.
- Line score - Predict the line score for the game in the following format: For each section of the line score you get correct, you get 1 point.
- MVP by WPA - For this, I use the total WPA for each player in the game from FanGraphs. This winner is posted in each game's recap (though I will count hitting and pitching). Each person who correctly predicts this player will get 1 point. All people who make this prediction correctly will get 1 point.
- Extra Series Prediction - Make a prediction that is based on each series. If it's a home series, predict the winner of the sausage race. If it's a road series, read the post for that series, find the extra prediction to make, and make a prediction based on that. Exact rules for each prediction will be put in that extra prediction. Each person who hits the prediction gets 1 point.
- Bonus Prediction - Make a prediction about the game that would be extraordinary for the game. If your prediction happens, you will receive bonus points for the day. You can receive up to 3 bonus points based on what you predict. Here is the basic rule of thumb for how to hit bonus predictions:
Rule of Thumb from 6/17:
25% of games or less (around 41 games a season) – 1 point
10% of games or less (around 16 games a season) – 2 points
5% of games or less (around 8 games a season) – 3 points
Note that when I say games, that will have different meanings for starters and relievers/bench players. For starters, I mean games that the player actually plays in. Since we all know starters before a game, making a prediction on a starter will relate to all of the games he has played in, and I won't factor in the chance that the player actually plays. (For example, if a player has played 60 times in 70 games, I would look for the chances of him accomplishing it in any of the 60 games he has played in.)
As for relievers/bench players, since they are a little more irregular, you could possibly hit more points by predicting them to do something. Since it's no guarantee they will even be in the game, I would find out the chance of it happening in any game the team plays, not just the times that the player actually plays. This would be the same for team predictions.
Here's the breakdown of how I would calculate it:
Starter: (# of occurrences / # of games the player has played in)
Bench Player/Reliever/Team Prediction: (# of occurences / # of games the team has played)
If you think I undervalued a bonus you hit, you can present a case for additional points. Using stats to relate to the general rule of thumb above will give you a better chance of making your case. However, understand that I do have the final say in this. I'm trying to get to a relatively solid pattern of awarding bonus points, but it is a learning process for me as well. So, I'm willing to hear what you have to say on any bonus predictions, but try to only make a case for ones you actually hit.
I hope that helps clear some confusion on scoring of bonus predictions. If you have any questions, post them in the comments.
Addendum on predicting injuries (6/6 at 3:40 PM CST): I'm not going to stop these from being posted right now, but I do feel like it's in bad taste. I understand it's generally meant to be funny, but wanting players to get injured is a very sensitive subject. As Brewers fans, I feel like we can be classier than that. So, if you want to post those, I won't stop you for now as long as I feel like you're just having fun with it. I may change this later if I think it's out of hand.
Now, let's get to the rules.
- Predictions must be made through the provided forms on the post for each game. They must be in by the start of the game, though I will allow a grace period of five minutes after the lock time to get them in.
- Only one prediction set may be made by any person each day. You are allowed to update your prediction as many times as you want, but only the last version of it counts. Make all changes as replies to your original prediction.
- Weeks run from Monday to Sunday.
Scoring will be kept in the post for each series. The scoring will be cumulative throughout the end of the season, and there will also be weekly scoring. There are no prizes, only pride.