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Why Upgrading Our Bullpen Was The #1 Priority

I've seen numerous comments both from baseball analysts and (especially) posters on Brewers forums, like the fine one we have here, that have indicated that an upgrade at Short-Stop was and/or still should be the Brewers #1 priority before the trade deadline and the playoff push.  I find this assertion to have its foundations in an unusually simple-minded basis, especially when contrasted to hard facts and recent evidence to the contrary.  Please compare the statistics for these two players, who I will reveal after the stats:

 

PLAYER A - .237 BA, .598 OPS, 20 extra base hits, 30 RBI

 

PLAYER B - .241 BA, .601 OPS, 19 extra base hits, 25 RBI

 

I think it would be fair to say that those sets of statistics are fairly identical.  Now, if you follow the Crew as closely as I do, I probably don't need to tell you that PLAYER A is good ol' Yuniesky Betancourt.  PLAYER B is the starting Short-Stop for the San Francisco Giants, Miguel Tejada.  Now, the reason why I compare these two players is I want to illustrate that, while I would not be opposed to an upgrade at SS, it is far from the top priority for this team.

Betancourt and Tejada are almost identical in their value (or lack thereof) to their respective teams.  The records for those teams are 49-43 (Brewers) and 52-40 (Giants).  The following is certainly just my opinion, but the Brewers have three position players (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks) who could be considered absolutely more valuable than the Giants most valuable position player this season (Pablo Sandoval).  After that, I would argue that the Brewers have two more position players (Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan) that are more valuable than any of the other position players on the Giants roster.  My point is that even though the Brewers have a far superior group of eight starting position players, the Giants still have a better record.  Thus, it can be argued that the problem most in need of an upgrade lies elsewhere.

While I hate to admit that I would still take the Giants starting rotation over the Brewers, this is an area that has been a strength for both teams, and according to some stats might even go in the Crew's favor.  While the Giants starting 5 has a higher quality start percentage (64% to 58%) and have given up fewer runs per 9 innings (3.8 to 4.5), the Brewers rotation has a much more impressive W-L record, sitting at 37-23, compared to the Giants 32-28.  Not to take anything away from some of the fine starts we've seen this season from the Brewers rotation, but I find this discrepancy another indication of the Brewers far superior offense.  Not very often do you see a SP with a 5.45 ERA and a 7-3 record (looking at you Zack Greinke), or a SP with a 3.87 ERA and a 4-9 record (poor Madison Bumgarner).

So what do (now did, after the K-Rod trade) the Brewers need to upgrade?  What is (was) the #1 priority for this team to get better before a playoff push?  I should only have to cite one statistic: 20 bullpen losses.  The Brewers bullpen alone has lost 20 games for this team already.  The Giants bullpen has only lost 12 games, which is actually very bad for them (they only lost 15 games all of last year).  If you want more statistics, how about the Brewers save percentage (63%) versus the Giants (73%), despite the fact that our official closer's percentage (John Axford, 92%) is superior to the Giants closer's percentage (Brian Wilson, 87%).

While it might seem arbitrary that I chose the Giants as the team to compare the Brewers to, I did it for two reasons.  First, as addressed above, they are an excellent example of a team with an awful offense and a good record, which is due to a pitching staff that features an above average rotation and an above average bullpen.  The other is that their blueprint clearly works, as it led them to last year's World Series title, which might have surprised the same simple minds that think upgrading a more than sufficient lineup is the top priority.

Allow me to officially congratulate Doug Melvin on addressing, well before the trade deadline, the team's #1 concern and priority in putting them in place for this year's title.  And I know we can all agree that it will be a delight to never again see Kameron Loe in the 8th inning.

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Cut myself off....

I am sure if asked a Giants fan they would say improving SS would be a priority. Alas, there is a difference between what you want to improve and what is available.

I am excited for K-Rod, but SS is a problem, just like it is for the Giants.

by Bernie's Mustache Wax on Jul 13, 2011 6:17 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I guess.

He’s been playing a lot of 3B this season since his work at SS yielded a -2.7 UZR. He’s +4.6 at 3B. With this little data however, it’s pretty much all statistical noise.

Yuni is still worse at D.

by cwolf20 on Jul 13, 2011 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

He also has much better at bats than Yuni.

Their results might end up the same but Tejada will make a pitcher work to get him out while YB just goes up there hacking away like a drunken lumberjack.

For your health!

by menchkins on Jul 15, 2011 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Right

Apparently the Giants’ starting rotation performing better so far doesn’t come into play.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jul 13, 2011 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know he touches on both rotations
While I hate to admit that I would still take the Giants starting rotation over the Brewers, this is an area that has been a strength for both teams, and according to some stats might even go in the Crew’s favor.

Besides W/L record, he doesn’t go into detail about what other stats go in the Brewers favor.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jul 13, 2011 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

The reason it doesn't work

Is that it’s not an If A, then B. A is true, therefore B is true kinda thing. The fact that the starting 8 for the Brewers is better at hitting doesn’t change the fact that the weakest spot on the Brewers is still SS. It doesn’t matter what the Giants have, the Brewers are not the Giants. You don’t choose to not improve your weakest position because one team ahead of you is worse than you.

It doesn’t logically follow at all.

by cwolf20 on Jul 14, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

i agree to the point that bullpen was probably more important

while D is important, i’ll still take better pitching in the late innings than Kam Loe or Dillard with a great fielding SS behind him.

by maxximus02 on Jul 13, 2011 11:46 AM CDT reply actions  

to accompany that,

i’d say that in general, i’d take Loe and dillard with a great team D vs. KRod and poor team D, but we aren’t going to improve the entire team D through inseason trades. swapping out Yuni for someone else will help, but it won’t fix everything (not that Krod will, but it seems a lot of people put all our defensive issues on a single position).

by maxximus02 on Jul 13, 2011 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

interesting analysis

and I wouldn’t argue against bullpen help, but I think your post completely disregards the effect that the lousy defense has had on the entire pitching staff. i don’t even feel comfortable using ERA to measure the actual performance of Brewers pitchers this year.

by Tristram28 on Jul 13, 2011 12:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Using the terms ‘simple minded,’ ‘hard facts,’ and ‘evidence to the contrary,’ while comparing two things over half of a season is simple minded, ignores hard facts, and evidence to the contrary.

by Braunstalker on Jul 13, 2011 1:17 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

What does this statistic mean?

“If you want more statistics, how about the Brewers save percentage (63%) versus the Giants (73%)”

by Archibaldcrane on Jul 13, 2011 3:34 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it means how often they win a game without a blown save

But still in a save situation. If a reliever blows a hold in the 8th, it’s still considered a blown save.

by cwolf20 on Jul 13, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

The left side of the infield

is a far greater need than 25-30 innings of a relief pitcher. I cant imagine any team in baseball with a worse left side of the infield when you factor in both offense and defense. Replacing Yuni with even a guy like Jamey Carroll could be the difference between making the playoffs and missing it.

by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 14, 2011 9:41 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Agreed

Although Loe did a pretty good job of hurting our playoff chances in 7.2 innings.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jul 14, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think people are piling on Loe a bit too much

a) he’s a workhorse and
b) most of the time he blows a lead, the defense did something idiotic.

I don’t think he should be the designated 8th inning guy, but I still think he’s one of the good guys. Definitely not DFA bait.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 17, 2011 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't say he was worthless

The defense isn’t helping him out much, but he’s been leaving pitches up in the zone more. It also doesn’t help that RR still thinks he is effective against LHBs.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jul 18, 2011 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

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