Is it time we cut ties with Counsell?
by menchkins on Jul 17, 2011 1:06 PM CDT
Email
PrintPersonally I think we need to do this, offer him a job within the organization if they want to but it really seems like he's just taking up a roster spot to me
I understand that his defense is something of an asset as he can play 3 infield positions but he barely gets to play and seems to me that his spot could be valuable for someone from our minor league system to get some big league experience.
I don't have a strong opinion about who I would use to replace him on the roster (assuming we stayed in-house) but I would be interested to hear what people think and if they agree, I'd love to hear some suggestions as to who should be called up to replace him.
79 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's not happening until at least after his bobblehead day.
He’s too much of a fan favorite to cut before then.
Plus, I don’t think he should be cut.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
he could teach the minor league kids his famous chopper
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
by trippingandy on Jul 17, 2011 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions
He has a .187 BABIP right now, his offensive numbers are going to rebound...
And he is still useful because of his defense. Zero reason to cut him.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
He's old.
At some point he just won’t be a serviceable player anymore. That might be now.
For your health!
He's still been above replacement despite a terribly unlucky BABIP though
I don’t see any reason to think he’s done and won’t rebound offensively over time.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
It's not unlucky
when he hasn’t made solid contact in, like, 2 months.
The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"
The Brewers on the road: "all we do is lose, lose lose, no matter what..."
by Tepo6688 on Jul 17, 2011 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is the perfect indication of why BABIP can be flawed
When Counsell puts wood on the ball, he hits dinky grounders and flyouts shallow in the outfield. He doesn’t have many lined outs. I know this is an eye test, but I don’t think anyone would disagree with that generalization.
His BABIP should not be close to the league average because he doesn’t hit the ball as solid as the league’s average hitter, or even close.
I don’t have anything against the guy (although I don’t get the fan favoritism), but he should not have place on the team. He gives us nothing.
by LosinCatmansLove on Jul 18, 2011 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Fan favoritism
He’s the hometown guy playing for the hometown team.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
That's a good point. If his name wasn't Craif Counsell does anyone think he'd still be on the team?
For your health!
I doubt they would've re-signed him this season for the money that they did
if it was anyone but Counsell.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
His production has only really dropped off this season
And he still fields well. Considering they had no other infielders, they kinda needed him.
My point isn't so much that they re-signed him
but that they re-signed him for $1.4M. If Counsell had retired last season, they could’ve gotten someone else in FA for less.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
That's the way i felt about it when they did it.
Kind of… why are you dumping solid bullpen arms then giving Counsell 1.4 Million?
CC’s got the cult of personality.
For your health!
BABIP isn't flawed
Not every player should be expected to be at .300, but .187 is unsustainable by any stretch of the imagination. Saying he never makes solid contact is a memory bias. His LD% is down this season, but not unreasonably far from the league average and probably not that meaningful over the small sample size.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Throw babip out the window
BABIP is being used way to much around here IMO. Its really only good for seeing how lucky pitchers are in a very broad sense.
Good hitters will have high BABIPs and bad hitters will have low BABIPs. Good hitters hit the ball more solidly more often. Higher LD% and all that.
And BABIP doesn’t factor walks, strikeouts, and home runs. You could look at Prince Fielder’s BABIP (.304) and conclude that he is a bit above average. But you would be throwing out his 22 home runs, and 77 walks.
Counsell’s poor babip is what it is. His line drives are down, pop ups are up, no home runs, no infield hits.
by grant76 on Jul 19, 2011 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Response
“And BABIP doesn’t factor walks, strikeouts, and home runs. You could look at Prince Fielder’s BABIP (.304) and conclude that he is a bit above average. But you would be throwing out his 22 home runs, and 77 walks.”
I don’t think anyone is using BABIP in the way you seem to be indicating. It’s a regression analysis tool, and .187 is unsustainably low. If he had something like a 6% LD rate, sure, you’d be right, but it’s not. He’s at a poor rate of 15.2%, but not bad enough for his BABIP to be .187.
I’m not saying his BABIP should be at or above league average, just that it should be closer. And even with his ridiculously bad BABIP, his defense is way better than Wilson or Yuni, and his bat isn’t that far behind.
BABIP isn’t correlated to a hitter being good or bad, it has more to do with the player’s skill set. That’s why there are more advanced stats like xBABIP (based on types of ball in play and other things you mentioned) that give a wider range of normal values than .280-.320 typically associated with BABIP. But unless a player has Johnny Estrada speed and a 98.0 GB%, a .196 BABIP is not sustainable.
And having a .304 BABIP doesn’t mean a player is “a bit above average,” it just means his batting line isn’t the product of any extremes in “luck” on balls in play. A player with Prince’s stats and a .304 BABIP suggests that the player is extremely good and not just lucky, a player hitting .200/.200/.200 with a .304 BABIP suggests that the player is horrendous and not because of bad luck that will correct itself over time.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Unsustainable over what time period?
I think there might be some merit to grant76’s point about players hitting the wall at the end of their careers. Look at Griffey’s last two seasons (w/ the caveat, of course, that he only played in 33 games in 2010): his BABIP was .220 over the last 560 plate appearances of his career.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
You realize that the reason that BABIP is used as an indicator for regression
is that it takes a high amount of PA’s to normalize, right?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
SRB and Cwolf are correct
BABIP is fine.
Counsell’s BABIP the last three seasons:
2010: .282
2009: .317
2008: .266
The whole point of BABIP is to compare a player to himself, not to anyone else.
So he’s around .290 for the last three seasons.
The fact that he’s ONE HUNDRED points below that means that he’s probably been getting unlucky this year.
Yeah, if he were an average hitter, it would be around .300. But that’s irrelevant.
The point is, he’s not a sub-.200 hitter, regardless of what the small sample space of PA’s he’s gotten so far this season says.
Also, Betancourt sucks, even if he did just homer.
Check out www.dugoutcentral.com for the latest news, live game blogs, and great sabermetric vs. traditionalist debates
by John Armbruster Bowen on Jul 19, 2011 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm obviously in the minority...or whatever it is when you are the only one...
I’ll concede that Counsell’s babip shows that he has had some bad luck, even that is it can only go up from here.
But I’ll stick by my initial point that babip is overused.
At some point players – especially 41 year old part time utility guys – will start to fade. For all the obvious reasons. There bat speed slows down, they can’t leg out the grounder deep in the hole, their reflexes are slower, etc.
In every case you could look at a fading player and say “Its just his BABIP… His line drive % is down….his infield hits are down….yada yada”
I didn’t see Counsell’s xBABIP anywhere, but lets just say that it is .295 and that he is unlucky by over .100 points. Even xBABIP assumes that all line drives, grounders, and flies are created equal.
I’ll admit to not seeing a lot of games but from what I’ve observed, he’s not hitting a lot of rockets right at people.
I still think the stat has value (more so for pitchers), and I’ll agree that a guy like Greinke could use the stat to argue how unlucky he’s been. But please don’t tell me that if Craig had no bad luck he’d be hitting .280, and that if he had good luck he’d be hitting .380 with his current skill set.
Tough call,
but if we do indeed make the playoffs this season, he will be very valuable as a PH because of his experience (plus he just seems to come up with a big hit when it matters).
"Had a dream I was king, I woke up, still king"
-Marshall Mathers
He's still useful as a defensive sub.
The problem is not that Counsell is on the bench. Its that Kotsay and Wilson and Gomez are also on the bench. Its too bad there isn’t an offensive option.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 17, 2011 2:18 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
they're all offensive to me
Ugh, Shortstop
by theBrouhaha on Jul 17, 2011 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I said yes
but I didn’t feel good about it.
The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"
The Brewers on the road: "all we do is lose, lose lose, no matter what..."
I don't know if we should get rid of him.
After all, he’s the undisputed team leader in GUAR or Grit Units Above Average.
by Acheron on Jul 18, 2011 1:23 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
good contact
he had pretty good contaqct on that sac fly the other day
by Milwaukee Beers on Jul 18, 2011 2:25 AM CDT reply actions
Not really
It was a poorly played ball
The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"
The Brewers on the road: "all we do is lose, lose lose, no matter what..."
What do you mean?
They needed a ball hit into the OF and he did that.
I agree with Marlow, Counsell isn’t bad as a 25th man, but he doesn’t really fit with the rest of the bench.
Get a ife broseph
I think he means that the sac fly wasn't deep enough
and that if the OF played the ball better, there would’ve been a close play at the plate.
I don’t really agree with this, but I think that’s what he’s trying to say.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I wouldn't say he ade particularly great contact with it, he just flew out to left field. It wasn't even a deep fly.
For your health!
It didn't have to be a deep fly
He made the LF go back on the ball, which was all that he needed to do in that situation.
Get a ife broseph
Obviously but do you think he was trying to hit the ball that weakly on purpose or do you think he happened to get just enough of it?
His batting skills seem to have basically disappeared this year.
For your health!
I'm sure he was trying to put the ball in outfield
I have no idea what percentage was luck or skill.
Get a ife broseph
I agree and don't know how much was luck or skill either but when you look at the rest of his hitting so far this season I'm leaning more towards luck.
For your health!
Luck would've meant the pitcher throwing a wild pitch
He needed to hit a fly ball to the OF, and he did it. Just because he didn’t crush it doesn’t mean that it’s luck. Much of it has to do with the pitch. He can only do so much with what the pitcher is throwing.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I don't agree with your assessment there.
If you put me in enough big league games I could get some hits. Those hits would mostly be luck since I haven’t played baseball in 15 years.
That’s the whole BABIP argument. I think it’s a misleading statistic because if you hit like shit, you’re going to have a low BABIP. It isn’t always luck.
For your health!
I know nothing of your baseball ability
But I would bet good money you’d struggle like crazy to make contact off an MLB pitcher
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 18, 2011 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I uesd to be a really good player at the high school level.
And you’re right I would struggle mightily.
So do most ML pitchers when they try to hit.
It’s largely luck when they make solid contact and it would be for me too.
That was the point I was making, I would trike out a lot and not make very good contact but I would make some contact and the odds of my BABIP being really low are very good.
I would be outmatched by any major league pitcher and unfortunately, I think CC has reached the point in his career where he is largely outmatched too.
For your health!
I don't think you'd make any contact
Especially if your experience is HS and haven’t played in 15 years.
Even mentioning CC or drawing some sort of comparison between you and him is a little ridiculous.
Get a ife broseph
I'm not trying to draw comparisons between him and myself... at least not directly.
I’m just saying that I think his age may have caught up with him and he is now over matched by ML pitching. I could be wrong, but it happens to every player who plays the game long enough.
As far as my own skills go, I could have played college ball if I had wanted, I decided not to. if I got an entire season in the Bigs I would make some contact. I would suck really bad but I would make contact. 999 times out of 1000 the contact I made would be terrible.
I hope I’m wrong. If CC stays on the team I hope he starts to move in a positive direction, it just doesn’t seem like he will to me at all.
For your health!
If you got 1000 plate appearances in your one season in the big leagues
Your team would be awesome.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 18, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
An infinite number of games? :)
It’s misleading to say that every player should have a .300 BABIP, but BABIP is not a misleading statistic.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
It's not luck for Counsell because he actually has MLB experience
It would be luck for you because you have zero college, minor league or MLB experience.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
like mark attanasio say’s “craig’s a winner”….kiss the rings sucka
by Milwaukee Beers on Jul 18, 2011 2:30 AM CDT reply actions
Were we not saying this about Kotsay 2 wks ago?
Yuni is a much higher area of importance………
booyakasha!
Absolutely but Kotsay has actually been somewhat productive in his playing time.
Counsell has been terrible offensively, ok defensively and he barely gets to play.
Betancourt is obviously the biggest area of concern but our bench is pretty damn horrible too and definitely something that needs to be upgraded.
For your health!
Joe Dillon, Gabe Kapler, Russel Branyan, those are just a few we've had over the last few years that performed really well with limited playing time.... oh yeah... and Craig Counsell last year.
It’s a catch-22. If Counsell was more productive, he’d get more playing time but since he doesn’t get more playing time he’s not as productive.
Honestly, I just think it’s over for him. Just my opinion.
For your health!
Shouldnt have all three shortstops on the roster
all three of our shortstops are replacement level or worse. Therefore we should cut one of them and add a viable bench bat. I vote to cut Yuni and keep Counsell because he is better defensively and is not a lazy goof off like Betancourt.
Pena
I love the idea of picking up Pena as a right handed power bat off the bench.
He's definitely a power threat, no doubt about that.
Unfortunately pretty much all he is, is a bat.
For your health!
He could play first
so Fielder could DH in the World Series.
Not really
Pena’s UZR/150 is -3.7 right now, which matches his UZR/150 from last season.
Fielder’s UZR/150 is -5.5 right now, which is actually an improvement from last season (-7.8).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Time to go.
Is there anything that Counsell does that Wilson can’t do? I like Counsell as much as the next guy, but he has really fallen off. .163/.261/.202.
Offensively he has been horrible. I know he hit a sacrifice fly to win a game – and maybe that would have been a good day to announce his retirement – but even that didn’t break his hitless streak which is now at 32 at bats.
I know he is ok defensively and versatile and all that, but I think the Crew would be better served promoting Taylor Green and letting Wilson be the utility guy.
Green is hitting .312/.390/.532 with 13 home runs for Nashville
He plays plus defense at multiple positions, that's valuable and something Wilson can't do.
I support promoting Green too, but Counsell is not one of the players that needs to be replaced.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
