Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 19, 2011 10:39 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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Some things to read while keeping warm.
Tom Haudricourt summed up last night's game pretty well with this sentence:
If the Brewers learned anything about Josh Collmenter the last time they faced him, you couldn't tell it Monday night.
Collmenter beat the Brewers last night for the second time in two weeks, holding them to just three hits over eight innings. It's hard to believe the Brewers could look so woeful against a pitcher with such pedestrian stuff: Brooks Baseball says he got through eight innings without breaking 90 mph, and 98 of his 105 pitches were either a four seam fastball, cut fastball or a changeup.
Last night's loss was the ninth time the Brewers have been shut out on the road in 50 games this season, meaning slightly less than 20% of their games away from home have ended before they scored any runs.
No one else was hitting either, but it's worth noting that Craig Counsell popped out last night in a ninth inning pinch hit appearance. He's now 0-for his last 32, the longest hitless streak by a Brewer since Counsell went 0-for-34 in 2004.
Ryan Braun was available for pinch hitting duty last night but was held out of the lineup once again. Ron Roenicke says the team still isn't considering putting Braun on the DL. Because he played over the weekend, he wouldn't be eligible to return from a DL stint until August 2.
In better injury news, Shaun Marcum visited a chiropractor yesterday and said he'll be good to go for his next scheduled start on Friday.
Other notes from the field:
- Josh Collmenter is only a few months removed from pitching in the Arizona Fall League.
- Collmenter, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
- Last night's loss stopped a seven game winning streak in Arizona for Randy Wolf.
- Nyjer Morgan had one of the three Brewer hits last night, extending his streak to eight games.
The two teams meet again tonight, with Yovani Gallardo taking the mound against Barry Enright. Tom Green of MLB.com has the preview.
The Brewers probably won't see reliever Aaron Heilman this week. The Diamondbacks released him last night to make room on the roster for Enright, who was called up from AAA Reno.
Unfortunately, yesterday's biggest news may have come off the field. Zach Braddock, who was optioned to AAA over the weekend, has been placed on Nashville's inactive list instead of being added to their active roster. We don't know much more beyond that at this point, but given Braddock's recent history this almost certainly isn't good news.
How high are the stakes for Doug Melvin this season? His approval ratings have been pretty high recently but he only has one year remaining on his contract and Ken Rosenthal says "A disappointing finish could prompt (Mark) Attanasio to review the entire baseball operation." (h/t MLBTR)
While the Brewers shop for a shortstop, Ron Roenicke is saying one thing and doing another with his available players at the position. Before the game he told Adam McCalvy he's going to play the hot hand when he can, but then he sat Josh Wilson (4-for his last 8) in favor of Yuniesky Betancourt last night. Betancourt went 1-for-3 with a bunt single.
Meanwhile, Jon Heyman is reporting that the Brewers are one of eight teams that have contacted the Mets regarding center fielder Carlos Beltran, who is in the final season of his seven year, $119 million deal. It seems unlikely the Brewers would spend what it would take to acquire a player who doesn't fill a position of need, but I guess it doesn't hurt to ask.
I'd say it's pretty safe to assume Rickie Weeks won't be going anywhere for a while. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says Weeks has the ninth most trade value of any player in baseball at this point.
In the minors:
- Mitch Stetter is getting closer to a major league return: The organization moved his rehab assignment from Arizona to Nashville yesterday.
- The affiliates went 5-0 last night, and shortstop Yadiel Rivera hit for the cycle in Helena's 12-3 win over Casper. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
- Rattler Radio has video highlights from Wisconsin's 9-3 win over South Bend.
I read a fair amount of stuff this morning, but I don't recall seeing anything cooler than friend of the site J. Scott Loomer's post on the weekend he spent with his sons following the Brewers in Denver. Go check it out.
J. Scott and the boys got to see a couple of pretty exciting one run games over the weekend. Cory Provus has a new post stressing the importance of winning those contests.
The Brewers have been pretty bad on the road this season, but at least they're interesting: Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs' NERD rankings have the Brewers as baseball's most interesting team, Zack Greinke as baseball's most interesting pitcher, and Ryan Braun as the sixth most interesting batter.
In power rankings:
- FanGraphs has the Brewers holding steady at five.
- Beyond the Box Score has the Brewers eighth.
- Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune has the Brewers eighth.
- ESPN has the Brewers holding steady at 12th.
Craving a Brewer-themed music video today? MLB Fan Cave has a Ryan Braun mashup titled "Clutch Singles."
If you haven't yet, please take a moment this morning to vote (once) in this week's Brew Crew Ball Tracking Poll. It will remain open until game time tonight and results will be posted tomorrow.
Around baseball:
Indians: Placed outfielder Grady Sizemore on the DL with a knee contusion.
Mets: Signed pitcher Gustavo Chacin and outfielder Fernando Perez to minor league deals.
Orioles: Reliever Kevin Gregg has dropped his appeal and had his suspension reduced from four to three games.
Rays: Designated pitcher Adam Russell for assignment and placed pitcher Juan Cruz (strained groin) and catcher Jose Lobaton (sprained knee) on the DL.
Red Sox: DH David Ortiz has dropped his appeal and had his suspension reduced from four to three games.
Yankees: Placed infielder Ramiro Pena on the DL following an appendectomy.
As we approach the trade deadline, it's possible all six NL Central teams could be active in the market in one way or another. Rubie has the latest on Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus, Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez and Astros outfielder Hunter Pence in today's edition of Around the NL Central.
In former Brewers: Gaslamp Ball has an interview with Tony Gwynn where they discuss Trevor Hoffman and his Hall of Fame chances.
The Brewers are pretty fortunate to be getting relatively good production from their catchers in 2011. Not everyone has that luxury: Halos Heaven notes that Angels starting catcher Jeff Mathis doesn't always compare favorably to Bob Uecker.
Defensive shifting has been a hot topic this season, as the Brewers have been using the strategy frequently to try to cover for the fact that the team defense is weak at best. The Pirates used a similar strategy last season, but are happy to be rid of it this year.
Today in awful umpiring: Home plate C.B. Bucknor drew a a fair amount of negative comments for his work during last night's Royals game, and Royals Review has a picture showing why.
Elsewhere in awful things: In what has to be the worst television environment I can imagine, the Marlins' FS Florida broadcast crew spent the weekend covering this weekend's Cubs series from a production truck with no air conditioning.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to find something more appropriate (h/t @someecards).
Drink up.
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Comments
It's tough to win
when you don’t draw a single walk.
All this brouhaha over what cap Dawson might wear is silly. Big question: How will he get in? He's not going to walk.
MONEY ORDER
duh
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
It's tough to win when you don't score a run.
When the Brewers don’t hit a homerun, there’s a pretty good chance they didn’t score many runs.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Huh?
RBI from HR / Total Runs Scored
2008: 40%
2009: 38%
2010: 37%
2011: 38%
The 2011 Brewers are pretty much as dependent on the HR as they have ever have been. Their Home/Away run scoring woes are explained in part by their split of 63 HR at home vs. 43 HR on the road and that’s with 3 more games played on the road so far.
At 1.5 RBI/HR on the season, 20 fewer HR on the road means 30 fewer runs coming via the long ball. 30 runs = 3 more losses on the road compared to home based on HR production alone.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
And the MLB average is 35%, with most competent offenses probably being higher.
Maybe its just the days of hearing every game that the Brewers are overdependent on the home run that seem to be in the past.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I’m not sure, I don’t think the composition of the team is all that different. Doesn’t it seem like that used to be a common storyline though? Maybe this season it’s just been replaced by “the Brewers suck on the road.”
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Yeah, definitely more in past years
I think because of the pitching staff. This year we can win games 3-2 without hitting a HR and no one is complaining.
Last year they’d lose 6-3 and we’d hear “they can only score runs if they hit HRs” and other stuff about the offense being the problem.
Get a ife broseph
The Brewers need some 20+ run games this season
Then Haudricourt can complain that if you take out all the 20+ run games the offense sucks.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I was questioning the statement that this team is any less dependent on the HR than teams in the past
I didn’t say they were overdependent on the HR. The lack of HR on the road explains at least some of their lack of scoring on the road. Incidentally, their HR/FB ratio is 14.3% at home and 8.8% on the road, but their FB% is about the same.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Fair enough
Your first post (wrongly) just reminded me of the old “Brewers either hit a home run or they suck” complaint, but I see from your other posts that’s not what you meant, and I agree with you about the home/away differentials. Hopefully it evens out going forward.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I don't know where to find this stat (besides just manually looking through each gamelog)
but wouldn’t a more telling stat be their win/loss records for games with at least 1 HR vs. games with no HRs?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You can see the RBI totals from HR in the Hit Location splits at Baseball Reference. Not sure if there is an actual RBI/HR stat listed somewhere though.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Can get this through game logs
This year, the Brewers are 14-22 in games without recording a HR and 37-24 when they do score a HR.
If you remove the shutouts since those are necessarily a loss and a game without a HR, and take only games in which the Brewers scored at least 1 run, but not a HR, their record improves to 14-13. I don’t know if that’s meaningful, but ’dems are de numbers.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
I don't know how meaningful it is either
At first glance, you could say that the Brewers do much better if they hit at least one HR in a game, but then I guess you’d have to compare it to the rest of the league to see if they are more/less reliant on HRs.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Hart tried to walk and did get rung up on a bad call
Close but no cigar ;)
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
Someone with more time than me
should look up their swinging strike percentage at home v. on the road.
All this brouhaha over what cap Dawson might wear is silly. Big question: How will he get in? He's not going to walk.
i didn't look up any of that
a week before the all-star break, i looked up on baseball-reference the number of pitches seen per plate appearance for each of the brewers and compared it to prior years. i thought the team was generally impatient and wondered if it was a coaching issue. after looking at it, i don’t think it’s a big deal.
six regulars were down from last year, but i’m not sure it’s by a significant amount:
player….09…….10…….11
braun….3.63….3.69….3.93
fielder…3.90….3.88….3.79
weeks…3.79…3.92….3.82
gomez…3.55…3.57….3.55
hart……..3.86….3.82….4.02
mcg……3.65….3.72…..3.78
lucroy…N/A……3.97…..3.88
yuni…….3.35….3.18…..3.05
plush….3.55….3.80…..3.64
for comparison, ichiro is 3.75/ 3.73/ 3.68, bautista is 4.14/ 4.22/ 4.20, and pujols is 3.84/ 4.03/ 3.68
by Capt Science on Jul 19, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
And in shocking news
Yuni appears to be dead last, behind Orlando Cabrera (3.07 to 3.18)
Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."
Fortunately, Yuni is really productive with that plate discipline.
… I hate him so much.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
....
“I don’t think it’s fair to try to figure out on a computer how good a guy is defensively,” said Roenicke. "You don’t know what’s in his head. Is he positioning himself right?
“If you looked at Ozzie Smith, and he was the best shortstop I’ve ever seen, part of that was because Ozzie was so smart. He positioned himself so well. Alex Rodriguez was the same thing (as a shortstop). His footwork is the best I’ve seen. He never threw a ball away at short.
“How do you judge that on a computer? They say (Betancourt’s) range isn’t good but maybe he was smart enough and positioned himself well. Orlando Cabrera grades out really bad. He plays on a winning team every year.”
Get a ife broseph
I always get a little queasy when I see this
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd like to see some reporter throw it back in his teeth
“hey RRR, I don’t know if its fair to try and figure out how well a guy hits against a certain pitcher on a computer. I mean, don’t you think its hard to know what’s in his head? Is he taking the right approach?”
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
It shows a complete lack of understanding of UZR or other advanced defensive metrics
UZR implicitly takes minor positioning corrections, both good and bad, into account Dumb, Dumb (referring to Ron). Range doesn’t count the number of steps Yuni is taking to get to the ball. Roenicke has to defend his players, sure, but he needs to get his facts right to make his argument. If you don’t understand something, don’t try to use it to justify your position, because you only end up looking like an idiot. Ron, you look like an idiot.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
We tried hypnotizing him into thinking the ball was a donut
but he chipped a tooth
Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."
Some general hand-waving about how computers can't measure everything
That statement would at least be true. It would even be defensible if someone is trying to split hairs about claiming one defender is better than another because his UZR is 1 point higher. Not defensible in Yuni’s case, I suppose.
More to the point, don’t try to defend the guy, at all. Avoid the question and you don’t look like an idiot while still avoiding demeaning your player.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Eh, he's in a no-win situation
You have to defend him, both to try and give him confidence and keep the meida/fans off your back.
I wish he was a little more vague in his answer because he sounds dumb, but its a tough situation to be in.
Get a ife broseph
And ultimately
probably better for him to sound dumb in a single sound bite than criticize his player.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Exactly
If he criticizes him, he basically paints a target on Yuni’s back and also indirectly criticizes DM when a replacement SS isn’t picked up.
If he supports him, he looks like an idiot because even casual fans know that Yuni isn’t very good.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Agreed
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
"They say the world is round.
How do you figure that out with a machine in outer space?"
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Orlando Cabrera grades out really bad. He plays on a winning team every year."
that is because he only signs one year contracts and picks his teams to a point. Heck if you are a average defender at SS you can do that.
That quote
is so full of stupidity that you wonder how the hell this idiot is employed.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 19, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
The God of granting baseball skills was too hard on Yuni.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Another BTY fun fact
He’s currently the only qualified hitter in baseball with a negative pitch value on every pitch type he’s faced which due to Wakefield is in fact all 7 pitches classified on Fangraphs. There are a few others that are close like David DeJesus with a 0 against changeups, but Yuni is the only one to make it over the hump to nab all 7.
To be fair, this isn’t an entirely relevant statistic. This year, Prince Fielder is one of 3 players to have a positive pitch value on all 7 pitch classifications this year. Last year, Prince was positive against fastballs and negative on the other 5 pitches. It still sounds good, though.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
by ecocd on Jul 19, 2011 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The biggest difference in home/away games
Is the way an umpire will call a game.
I guess anectdotally, the Brewers pitchers strike out a lot of guys, and would get more strikeouts and favorable counts at home. The Brewers hitters seem to strikeout a lot and would strikeout more on the road and would be hitting behind in the count more.
That’s just a thought, I didn’t look up any numbers or anything.
Braun
the team has badly mishandled the Braun injury. He should have been put on the DL soon after the injury happened and maybe he would be doing better by now. Instead we have Kotsay taking his spot in LF and 3rd in the order.
As I stated in the postgame, what difference would it make?
RRR would be playing Kotsay over Boggs in every game, anyway, and Boggs wasn’t even consistently utilized as a PH. There’s little effective difference between having Braun on the DL or having him inactive on the 25-man roster.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
pinch hitting
if the team isn’t considering DL’ing braun (as the mug cited), why PH cc over braun? you can PR cc for baun if there isn’t a HR.
if you are considering DL’ing him, them you hold him out until a specific situation so as to give you the option of DL’ing him retroactively, no?
by Capt Science on Jul 19, 2011 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
It was a low-leverage situation
A 9th inning AB in a 3-0 game isn’t likely to make a difference. They may as well keep Braun from trying to leg out an infield single in a meaningless AB.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Low leverage maybe, but if we had Branyan on the bench he would have hit a 5-run HR in that spot.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 19, 2011 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unless you shut him down completely.
Don’t have him taking BP and stretching and so forth before the game. Put that thing on ice and get well, and we’ll see you in two weeks.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Throughout the entire injury, BP hasn't been the problem
He hasn’t been able to run on it, but hitting hasn’t put any stress on the injury. Wouldn’t he still be traveling with the team if he were on the DL with a non-rehab injury? It still doesn’t seem to me like there’s much material difference.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter
As a licensed sports therapist and injury rehabilitation specialist, you could offer valuable insight on who the Brewers should replace team physician William Raasch with.
by nullacct on Jul 19, 2011 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
beltran might be a genius move, actually
the brewers don’t have much to trade, but i think mark is willing to take on some salary in this “all in” year. so if we can take on a lot of the rest of the contract and offer minimal prospects, that then gives us (a) an option if the braun injury is more serious than thought; (b) a trade chip for other teams, so we can go get a ss. i don’t remember how the piazza/ marlins time went, but i imagine it would be a quick flip like that was.
The only teams that want Beltran are buyers
Which one of them is going to give up a SS worthy of starting regardless of Beltran as part of the deal?
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
considering yuni is the alternative
i think the hurdle on “worthy of starting” is really low.
by Capt Science on Jul 19, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Playing him at less than 100%
may hurt the team a lot more than if they had put him on the DL when the injury first occured. Maybe this injury lingers all season now because they didnt want to rest him for a couple of weeks.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 19, 2011 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Can't we just take that money and build a competent shortstop?
Beltran’s contract should be enough to buy us The Six Million Dollar Man or something.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Watch DM pull off a deal for Beltran
Then convince the Mets to throw in Wright and Reyes, for the whole farm. As unlikely as this is, I wouldn’t put it past Dougie. We could change our name to the BrewMets.
Lurking in the waters of BCB since May 21, 2010
I'll pass on Beltran
If the Mets would give up Reyes for 2 PTBNL that don’t include our top 5 prospects and cash, I’ll be all for it. Since I think that’s an utter impossibility, I guess we’ll have to settle with the titillating Jamey Carrol rumors.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd probably give up all five of our top five prospects plus cash for Reyes.
Win the WS this year and I don’t give a shit what happens later.
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Jul 19, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess it wouldn't be that big of a deal
but I don’t think there are enough prospects to make the deal happen anyway. Even if we gave them all of our minor league franchises (can’t trade this year’s draft picks).
I know losing Prince will be hard next year, and with just Weeks, Braun, Hart and Gallardo’s pay increases, the $15.5MM “savings” from Prince coming off the books is whittled down to just $1.25MM or so. And that’s before arbitration raises are due those eligible. So, next year will probably be tighter in a payroll sense (although this year is currently down about $7MM from last year, without factoring in the K-Rod trade). That tells me Mat Gamel will almost definitely take over everyday at 1B, and that there probably won’t be enough money left over to buy Jose Reyes. That leaves us with one of the following, courtesy of mlbtraderumors:
Shortstops
Clint Barmes (33)
Yuniesky Betancourt (30) – $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Orlando Cabrera (37)
Jamey Carroll (37)
Ronny Cedeno (29) – $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
Craig Counsell (41)
Rafael Furcal (34) – $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout
Alex Gonzalez (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
Omar Infante (30)
Cesar Izturis (32)
Julio Lugo (36)
John McDonald (37)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Nick Punto (34)
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Marco Scutaro (36) – $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
Miguel Tejada (38)
Jack Wilson (34)
Not particularly promising.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions
You're clearly forgetting Yadiel Rivera
Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."
Yeah I'd forgotten him
I’m sure he’ll be ready to play.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 19, 2011 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Not defending Melvin
but he did fleece Washington in the Morgan deal.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 19, 2011 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
He took Washingtons biggest headache off of their hands. And this was after him having a pretty crummy season last year with questions about what he could still do.
By that logic, the Packers didn't win the Brett Favre / Falcons trade
Favre was a bit of a headache and there were questions about what he could do. I’d call that one a toss-up.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 19, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yes, and obviously Washington were the dumb ones.
Melvin is best at engineering trades when he’s swooping in on another team that’s in a bind (e.g. the K-Rod deal, Greinke deal, Morgan deal, etc.)
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I hadn't thought about it from that perspective, but it seems pretty sound
Kind of strange given how unpopular Milwaukee is with most players, as a market. It helps that everyone seems to like the atmosphere that the guys on the team create, though. Something else to miss about Fielder next year. :(
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Taking on headaches/malcontents/clubhouse cancers seems to make Melvin the Al Davis of MLB. Hopefully its the pre-alzheimers Davis of the 70s and early 80s and not the full blown looney of the 2000s Al.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Jul 19, 2011 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Elijah Dukes.
Might be an upgrade over Kotsay though, baggage and all.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Not at the time of the trade, anyway
Matt Laporta is by no means worthless, but a career .702 OPS so far isn’t necessarily what the Indians were expecting back for CC.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
True
But most prospect trades dont work out for the selling team. At the time of the trade that was a pretty even deal value wise. As was the case with the Greinke trade. If anything the Jays robbed Melvin on the Marcum trade.
Really?
You refuse to concede he’s made ANY good trades?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 19, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not what I said
If you subscribe to the “you have to determine the value of the trade, at the time of the trade” philosophy, then none of those big time trades that have been pulled off, were tremendous huge wins for the franchise.
Sabathia had 4.6 WAR in his 3 months here. When you add that up, including the draft pics was worth about $25.7 million, not to mention whatever playoff revenue might have been added. At the time, LaPorta alone was worth $22.3 million as a prospect. Add in Brantley at around $3 million and Jackson at around $2, it was a pretty even trade.
But you don't subscribe to that theory
So Melvin has pulled off tremendous wins, right?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 19, 2011 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you don't mind me asking
Does a 5 WAR player have the same dollar value on a 70-win team as he does on a 90-win team? What I mean is, is his absence meaning the difference between 70 and 65 wins worth the same as his addition meaning the difference between 90 and 95 wins? Do you follow my question?
CC, almost single-handedly, got us to the playoffs for the first time in 25 years.
That counts as a tremendous win for the franchise in my book.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 19, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your calculators don't take into account the marginal value of wins though
The Brewers made the playoffs by 0.5 wins that season. Wins are not worth market value (which I assume you are using) in that scenario, not to mention the additional specific dynamics of the team (e.g. if a team already has three All Star shortstops, the $/WAR value of another shortstop for that team is different than it would be for the 2011 Brewers) and the further marginal value of it being the first playoff trip in 26 years.
$/WAR is a good tool in general, but it’s not always the best when evaluating a specific transaction.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 19, 2011 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So which one is it?
Do you evaluate a trade when it’s made, or after it plays out a few years?
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Jul 19, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Whichever one doesn't favor the Brewers.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 19, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 8 recs
He's repeatedly said trades can only be judged after a few years
But apparently, at the time matters now. Its almost like it changes based to fit an agenda.
Get a ife broseph
Repeatedly?
I think I said that once in reference to the Sabathia trade, 2 years ago.
My main point here is that Melvin isnt some master deal maker. If anything he gets fair value for what he gives up. In relation to the slash and burn tactics he left behind in Texas, where his successor fleeced the Braves in the Teixiera deal.
The trades this year have brought in big name players who are adding value, but he gave up, or even more to get those players. In response to the main point, which implied that DM has some sort of ingenious way of unloading talent for nothing.
Yeah repeatedly
Here, Here I could do more, but you get the point – its an argument we’ve had tons of times.
I don’t think DM is genius, but do think he’s made some very good trades, some so-so trades and a couple really bad ones.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 19, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Then repeatedly, on the same day?
Also splitting hairs. Lets call it even and just agree that DM is the greatest GM of all time.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 19, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Like the internet is going to exist in 2013
(also, I don’t think anyone thinks DM is the greatest GM ever)
Get a ife broseph
Most prospect trades don't work out for the selling team
ok, and basically all Melvin has done (CC, Greinke, Plush, Marcum) are prospect trades. How is it not “working out for the buying team”?
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 19, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Thats not what I said
CC, Greinke and Marcum are all, or have had great results for the Brewers, as most of the trades that are pulled off where one team gets the vets, and gives up prospects to get that guy.
But from a value standpoint, at the time of the trade, none of those were fleeces.
That's because the minors are packed with guys
Who have been assigned an artificial value by ‘experts’ that they might never achieve. It’s possible that there isn’t even 100 combined WAR total sitting in the minors right now, and we’ll never know until all their careers for all their teams are done. Some things look like a commodity but aren’t, and that’s why they’re called prospects. What I find very funny about the whole process is that players can have a negative WAR, but for some reason prospects never have a negative worth…
Don’t get me wrong, I love the theorycrafting of assigning value to prospects, but it’s still a little bit smoke & mirrors to me. A guy that can play is always worth more than a guy that can’t right now.
by nullacct on Jul 19, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
especially..
if the team trading the prospects is in this win now mode…
Looking back at 2008 and at this year’s Greinke-Marcum and now K-Rod trades….it’s hard to criticize Melvin….He saw the window open and tried to pry the sucker even further for Fielder’s last year…..His biggest mistake in my mind was trying to replace Sheets and CC with mediocre pitchers…and then he got the goods in Greinke and Marcum…Now will Greinke please begin to dominate so the Brewers can runaway with this thing
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 19, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
The 'win now' mode makes it more interesting
Because of the exponential cost of wins above .500. There was a discussion along those lines in the offseason here, in what was required in terms of $$ to jump from an 85 to 92 win team, and that the Brewers couldn’t afford it. But if the trades work out and the players perform and we win the division with 92 wins, wasn’t it a bargain after all?
for sure
and these 92 hypothetical wins in this weak NL Central during Fielder’s most likely last year makes these trades excellent moves…What is even more encouraging is that Melvin too could be in his last year and he is not stopping…The pitching is there for a seven game series….
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 19, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
...A guy that can play is always worth more than a guy that can’t right now.
Economists would call that a time horizon. And they would agree that you have to discount future long-term performance in the interest of “win now.” So you can’t just sum up the career WAR numbers of the players traded; you need to factor in some discounted value of WAR in the out-years.
by Brew Angel on Jul 19, 2011 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
An additional factor
Prospect values are assigned based on external opinions (e.g. John Sickels giving the player a ‘B’ or Baseball America ranking him #75 overall) but, presumably, the organization trading the prospect away has a much greater knowledge of the player and his ultimate value.
“Can’t miss” prospects are almost never traded, so if Team A is giving a prospect to Team B who is still something of a gamble (for example, Matt LaPorta, who was ranked #23 overall but BA but who was still just in AA) it’s sort of like you’re gambling against the house. Team A has a tangible advantage due to greater knowledge of the player.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 19, 2011 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
but they got more than they expected...
with Brantley….I think he was the player to be named later..no?
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 19, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
but Brantley came too...no?
and he has been a surprise..I think he was the player to be named later.
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 19, 2011 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
He was the PTBNL
Not really a surprise though. He looked really really good in the minors, especially at AA. It really bummed me out when they chose him. Taylor Green was one of their options I’m pretty sure too.
For your health!
I'm not going to argue about what players are available to play every day
Because theoretically the coaching staff is aware of who’s fresh and who isn’t, apply modern conditioning techniques and analysis to production, etc. in a method I’m not prepared to second guess, but:
Who puts Hart and Morgan in the same lineup and decides that Hart should lead off with Morgan 2nd?
Seriously? Is crack that cheap in your neighborhood?
Plush smoked all Roenicke's crack
and RRR is punishing him for it.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 19, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Plush knows that he won't get tested
He’s too gentlemanly to be suspected. :)
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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