Friday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 22, 2011 11:01 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while trying out a new look.
Thanks to @poonix for supplying today's opening line:
Same road, same Brewers who managed to get shut out for the 10th time this season.
And to @MarcumsChangeup, who added this:
Same Zack Greinke HR balls.
Zack Greinke provided more of the same for the Brewers last night, as he was nearly perfect except for two home runs allowed during the fourth inning. The Common Man of The Platoon Advantage notes that the polarizing nature of Greinke's 2011 season even extends to his WAR numbers: rWAR has him at -0.4 and fWAR has him at 1.9.
While Greinke's home runs didn't help, the middle of the lineup was the issue for the Brewers last night as Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Casey McGehee combined to go 0-for-11 with a walk and six strikeouts while the rest of the team went 6-for-20. Adam McCalvy said that Fielder looks like he needs a break.
The Brewers were shut out last night for the tenth time on the road this season, but in this case Tom Haudricourt says it was just because Diamondbacks pitcher Ian Kennedy was that good.
Other notes from the field:
- Nyjer Morgan went 1-for-3 last night and now has a hit in eleven straight games, a career high.
- Last night's loss snapped a nine game winning streak for the Brewers in games played in Arizona with Ryan Braun in the lineup.
- Braun, by the way, rounded the bases in 20.61 seconds following his homer on Wednesday. It was the fourth fastest trot of the day.
- Nyjer Morgan was hit by a pitch last night, and Plunk Everyone notes that it was Arizona reliever Bryan Shaw's first MLB plunking. Morgan has been hit six times this season, and three of them have come since Tuesday.
- Ian Kennedy, Braun and Miguel Montero are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
- Despite the fact that he's been hitting fifth for six games now, FS Wisconsin is still running the "Rickie Weeks really knows how to set the table" ad.
The Brewers managed to escape Arizona with a split, although at times neither team deserved to win. Over at Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball, Rubie Q has a look at some of the puzzling/bizarre/indefensible managerial decisions both Roenicke and Kirk Gibson made in the late innings Wednesday.
With Phoenix in the rear view mirror the Brewers are in San Francisco tonight to open a three game set with the Giants. Jon Schlegel has the MLB.com preview. Shaun Marcum will face Matt Cain tonight, as the Giants are skipping Barry Zito's turn in the rotation.
Meanwhile, Carlos Gomez remains one of the team's top stories. The Brewers made the expected move yesterday by placing him on the DL and purchasing the contract of outfielder Brett Carroll from Nashville to take his place on the roster (FanShot). Carroll is expected to start against lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday.
Carlos Gomez is on the 15-day DL for now and has returned to Milwaukee to be examined. Toby Harrmann has a great post discussing the reasons why the Brewers wouldn't just jump straight to the 60-day. Cory Provus noted that the Brewers had a relatively rare working platoon in center until the injury.
Craig Counsell (and the entire Brewer bench) got the night off last night. Bill from The Platoon Advantage listed him as Brewer fans' blind spot.
While the Brewers are in San Francisco this weekend, Doug Melvin is in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction of longtime GM Pat Gillick. He told Peter Gammons, "This will be the most baseball people ever in Cooperstown.". He was also seen having dinner last night with Reds GM Walt Jocketty. (h/t @Brewerfandotnet) Let the rumors commence.
Jon Heyman says it will be interesting to see if the Brewers' interest in Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran increases now that Carlos Gomez is out, and lists them as one of the four most likely candidates to acquire him. Meanwhile, Craig Calcaterra called a Buster Olney post on the subject "your useless trade rumor of the day." With that said, Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt he's "possibly" seeking center field help.
In more helpful trade notes, Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker notes that Jamey Carroll could help solve the Brewer problems at shortstop...and so could Clint Barmes.
In the minors:
- The affiliates went 2-3 last night, and Taylor Green went 2-for-3 with a home run and two walks in Nashville's 8-7 win over Iowa. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
- Bob Brainerd of Time Warner Sports 32 has a story on Wisconsin catcher Joey Paciorek, who comes from a long line of baseball players.
- Baseball America has a story on Mat Gamel, but it's subscriber-only.
Here's one of the cooler things I've stumbled across in a while: Twins infielder/outfielder Michael Cuddyer (or someone claiming to be him) has a great Flickr album of photos from around Miller Park and several other stadiums. The Miller Park photos include a lot of perspectives and angles I hadn't seen before. (h/t Lookout Landing)
Once the Brewers are done with the Giants, they'll head home to open a three game set with the Cubs on Tuesday. Tickets for the series mustn't be selling well, as the Crew had 10,000 seats to give away this morning as part of a promotion with a new sponsor. Everyone loves free stuff, though: The giveaway was over in 20 minutes. TheJay had an alternate promotion idea.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are going to get a fair amount of national TV attention in August. Earlier this week their August 13 game against the Pirates was picked up by Fox, and today their August 20 game against the Mets was picked up as well. Both games are now 3:10 Central starts.
In power rankings: Yahoo has the Brewers eighth, down two spots.
If you're ready to make your predictions for tonight's game or any of this weekend's contests, head over to Prognostikeggers. Don't forget, as I seem to every day lately.
Around baseball:
Cardinals: Infielder Ryan Theriot has had his suspension reduced from two games to one and has dropped his appeal.
Indians: Designated infielder/outfielder Jared Goedert for assignment.
Phillies: Signed pitcher Aaron Heilman to a minor league deal.
Yankees: Signed outfielder Marcus Thames to a minor league deal.
The NL Central landscape may change a bit this weekend, as the Pirates and Cardinals open a three game set in Pittsburgh tonight. You know about that and much more if you've read this morning's Abita Turbodog-fueled edition of Around the NL Central.
Earlier this week I mentioned that the Cardinals had gone over 30 games without stealing a base, the longest streak in the majors since the 1970's. Danny Knobler notes that the streak ended last night with a steal by catcher Yadier Molina. You can't make this stuff up.
Here's another fascinating streak: The Mariners haven't had a walkoff win since 2009.
Today's edition of Today in Brewer History celebrates (kind of) the birthday of 1970's Brewer Tim Johnson. Until this morning I didn't know that it's also Tom Haudricourt's birthday.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I feel naked.
Drink up.
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If you're having a problem remembering your predictions
Why not enter all of the days right at the start of the week? It does limit you a little bit since you don’t know the official lineup, but if you restrict predictions to players you know will be playing, you could always get it in ahead of time.
I know at least a few people do that every week.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Agreed that Prince could use a break (though in no way should he get one)
It seems like whenever he’s up in the late innings with the potential to tie with an HR, he willingly swings at any pitch that isn’t spiked in front of home plate. Opposing pitchers obviously know this.
"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan
Prince
could definitely use a day off but I would rather not see Kotsay playing first and hitting 4th.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Really? People are still complaining about Greinke after a 7 IP, 2 ER start?
His he as a 2.88 ERA in July…
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 22, 2011 11:24 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
ERA is meaningless
Or at least that’s what I was told in May and June.
He was good last night, I’ll continue to complain when he throws a 92 MPH fastball right down the middle and it gets crushed.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 22, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Give me a break
The argument in May and June was that every single one of his peripherals suggested that he was pitching phenomenally but getting some poor luck, and that his results (ERA) would start to match his peripherals going forward. And, oh look, they are.
If you’re looking for reasons to dislike the guy, you’re going to find them.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 22, 2011 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
How is it a changing argument?
You’re searching for reasons to say he’s bad.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
The team didn't score any runs.
We’re complaining about the starter giving up 2 runs in 7 innings? Come on.
For your health!
which doesn't account for all batted hall types and assumes everyone should give up 10.5% hr/fb
they all have their limitations
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 1:11 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Outside of SIERA
it’s the best predictor of future ERA, that’s why people quote it so much.
Baseball Prospectus doesn’t let non-paid members see SIERA anymore, as of like yesterday, which is kind of pissing me off.
They all have their limitations, but it’s difficult to say “and those limitations are exactly in the areas that Greinke will continue to be an outlier and therefore bad for estimating him in particular.”
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
SIERA is available at fangraphs
I understand the uses of DIPS theory metrics. Ignoring all batted ball types except HR is not a good idea when you ate looking at a case like 2011 greinke. tRA does not ignore those. If you want to talk about talent gaps, talk about xFIP-tRA, not xFIP-ERA. you gave to account for line drive ropes off the wall. in my opinion not doing so grossly overestimates the abilities of the battered greinke has faced, particularly when runs ate down by nearly .5 this tear on average.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 2:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ah, never saw SIERA on fangraphs before
…although that does count more than just HR% (ground balls) and he’s crushing the entire league on that stat too.
Heh, baseball’s a funny sport.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not just that pitch, it's the situation that he threw it in.
After getting behind 3-0 to their best hitter, you shouldn’t throw your most hittable pitch down the middle of the plate, just for the sake of not walking him..
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Sometimes you have to throw pitches in the strikezone to get strikes, curiously enough.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
The Montero pitch
was on a 0-1 count, and he missed his spot. Lucroy was set up outside, and was reaching back towards the plate when it got blasted.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
so that IS greinke's fault, right?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 1:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It looked like that wasn't the pitch he was trying to throw at that time, yes.
You seem a bit mad though.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I am not sure where you are getting that.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 2:04 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm ok with it.
How “good” does a hitter have to be where we just give up on 3-0 counts? Greinke has pitched his way out of plenty of them. It was low in the zone, that’s not exactly a “oh he tried to get away with one there” pitch. Sometimes you’re going to be in situations where you are trying to gasp throw your fastball for strikes in the zone, even if the hitter should be looking fastball. It happens all the time.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the biggest problem people have with that pitch
is that Greinke didn’t need to throw it. It wasn’t Sean Burroughs at the plate… it was Upton. The problem appears to be that Greinke would rather throw a fastball down the middle instead of issuing a BB… regardless who the hitter is.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Sure, but then you have a runner on
with a guy who has 16 HRs up next. If Sean Burroughs was up next, you can be a little more careful with Upton.
Moral of the story – 3-0 counts suck, don’t get into them.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
That's true
Neither scenario is very good, so I guess it comes down to who you’d rather pitch to.
I would rather have had Greinke face Young with a fresh count and Upton on 1B than risk throwing a fastball in Upton’s wheelhouse.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
3-0 fastballs down the middle to guys who swing on 3-0 pitches?
Yeah, I don’t like those.
Get a ife broseph
Well, it wasn't *RIGHT* down the middle.
But that’s part of the problem, too.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I'm not defending every single pitch Greinke throws, but that's the pitch you throw on a 3-0 count
Down and on the edge of the strikezone, but you can’t take a chance at just hitting the corners because then if you miss you walk a guy with 1 out and the Diamondbacks’ cleanup hitter at the plate. And whether or not Greinke’s fastball is really his “most hittable pitch,” you can’t exactly throw your breaking stuff on a 3-0 count either.
Calling for what would essentially be an IBB of Upton with one out and the #4 and #5 hitters coming to the plate isn’t realistic.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
As for the Tweet
I was merely noticing the HR balls given up. I was actually very happy with his start last night.
Lurking in the waters of BCB since May 21, 2010
-Talk more baseball at @MarcumsChangeup on Twitter
So when his peripherals say he's good, he's good. I get that.
But last night his FIP was 4.91…
Now that's great tasting chicken!
How was his xFIP?
Point is, looking at “advanced predictors of future success” over a single start is kinda…doing it wrong.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm being somewhat facetious
But we’re playing the Manny Parra game again. When he exceeds expectations it’s because he’s good, and when he’s not it’s because we’re using the wrong stats to measure.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 22, 2011 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Thing is
Manny Parra didn’t have a Cy Young on his mantle and years of success in his career to back up our expectations.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
True
Greinke isn’t a comp for Parra, but the conversations we have about the two are remarkably similar. I think the extended Parra debates are what soured me on the concept of pitcher luck – it’s a word that occasionally gets overused to defend a situation where a problem exists but hasn’t been identified.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Gotcha
Just surprised at all the “but that one pitch wasn’t perfect!” going on today, when I felt the bigger problem with Greinke was his performance with runners on base and his low strand rate.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think anyone is griping about one pitch
if anything, that one pitch us a microcosm of greinkes season to date, which is why people are likely keying on it
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 2:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
And that one pitch separates the elite pitchers from the very good pitchers
Greinke is still very good. We were expecting elite.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
by ecocd on Jul 22, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
7 innings and only two runs is elite
Every man must believe in something, I believe I'll have another drink.
I think when the bases are empty
it’s hard to throw an “awful” pitch – or at least that the case could be made that one of the 3 balls he threw before the HR pitch was worse.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
My point was that he dug himself into a hole with the 3 balls, and instead of trying to climb out,
he threw dirt on himself. It wasn’t just the 1 pitch, it was also the entire at bat. Is that a bad call by Lucroy/Narron? I don’t know.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Maybe
But 3-0, the “worst case” should be walking the guy. He put a fastball right in the hot zone (via link above) of a top power hitter.
I don’t think that means Greinke is a bad pitcher, it was just a really bad pitch. If Roy Halladay threw that pitch I’d say its an awful pitch as well.
Get a ife broseph
Top power hitters take part in the HR derby.
Upton hasn’t ever been in the HR derby, has he?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jul 22, 2011 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
So, intentional walk would be your call?
Anything within 6 inches of the strike zone can be hit for “worse than a walk” at any given time. Throwing a nasty curveball in the zone can be hit for “worse than a walk” too. Just wanna be clear that you’re advocating either spiking a pitch in the dirt (and if he swings, then…can he throw fastball 3-1?) or the MANAGER should’ve called for the IBB.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Throw a change, curveball, or slider.
Upton’s looking fastball the whole way there. If you’ve already committed to throwing something down the middle of the plate, at least try to throw a pitch he doesn’t expect…
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I do agree with this.
allowing for the fact, of course, that “worse than a walk” could still be the result.
I wonder how different this conversation would be if he threw a curveball in the zone and it got crushed.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Anything not in his hot zone would have been my call
I don’t think this is a controversial opinion
Get a ife broseph
I just doubt people would say it's a good pitch
if it had been 4 more inches inside and he crushed it for a home run anyway. They’d still be screaming “he was looking fastball!”
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I know I've been leading a lot of the 'mad about that pitch' conversation
And I’ll say that I definitely wouldn’t have been as vocal. Before he threw it, I was talking to my TV, saying, “Don’t throw him a fastball, it’s OK to walk their best hitter.” If he threw a CB right down the middle and it got hit out, I don’t know what I would have said, but I certainly wouldn’t have been as upset.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
You don't throw a curveball on a 3-0 count in that situation...
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Nevermind, I don't think this Greinke "debate" is very productive
If a 2.11 xFIP in July, a 2.14 xFIP on the season, a 2.16 SIERA on the season, and now an ERA that’s starting to match those stats aren’t enough for some people, I’m not sure what to say. Whatever floats your boat I guess.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Greinke repeatedly throws his curve for strikes.
He can throw it on a 3-0 count if he wants.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Flickr Photos
I’m pretty sure those are Cuddyer’s photos (or someone with the Twins). The picture from within the visitor’s clubhouse with Twins players sitting around would almost have to be taken by a Twins player.
Those photos from the roof are really cool.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Those were some cool photos.
I agree with you, I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t have been him. Would love to explore Miller Park like that.
by icecreamman on Jul 22, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Definitely taken by someone with ‘player’ access. While the public tours go through the visitors dug out, it is only when the team is out of town and not when players are in there. Also the roof definitely wasn’t on the tour
by Saberilliterate on Jul 22, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Definitely Cuddyer
Jerry Ruess has some sweet pictures in a similar style from 89-90 with some awesome County Stadium shots
http://www.flickr.com/photos/43289453@N03/sets/72157623596170805/with/4576056865/
Get a ife broseph
It looks like he takes his photography seriously
and it is really neat that he is that open to the public about his hobby.
It's definitely Cuddyer
Dick and Bert were mentioning that he was taking photos up on the roof during one of the broadcasts.
"managed to escpae Arizona with a sweep"
And the team intends to improve upon 1B and LF before the trading deadline…
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I think "split" would be a better word there
Lurking in the waters of BCB since May 21, 2010
-Talk more baseball at @MarcumsChangeup on Twitter
Taylor Green is hitting .320/.404/.548/.951 in 344 AAA PA
Good thing we almost traded for this guy.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Taylor Green
maybe if he gets his OPS up to .1100 or so while McGehee’s drops to .550 or so he will get called up.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
McGehee isn't hitting for power, but he is finally starting to hit again
.259 on the current road trip is better than what he had been putting up prior to that. He’s only hit singles, though, which isn’t really his game. It’s not good, but it’s finally a step in the right direction at the plate for him.
I’ll admit I’m finally sick of trying to make excuses for him. It’s hard to send McGehee down when he’s in the midst of his best 6 games in forever, but I might jump on the Taylor Green bandwagon after the SF series if he fails to keep his relatively hot bat going.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
i kinda feel like if we let McGehee go he's gonna have a JJ Hardy type season next year for someone else
Green definitely should be given a fair shake though. But who knows, maybe he’ll turn out like Escobar and be terrible. I think Casey can turn it around. You don’t just run hot for two years!
"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan
I don't think he's advocating releasing McGehee
but he may need to go down to Nashville so he can focus more on his hitting in meaningless games. The Brewers did that with Weeks early in his career, so I don’t think DM is opposed to the idea.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Hot bat?
when .259 in a small sample qualifies as a relatively hot bat you know something isnt right.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
His hot bat is over the last 6 games rather than the 8-game road trip.
OBP .320. That’s hot for McGehee this season.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
That clip is hilarious.
I didn’t understand the thing with Betemit. Either you believe McGehee will come around in which case you don’t need Betemit or you think he needs to be replaced and you might as well call up Green. Betemit just didn’t look better than what the Brewers already had.
I think they should have called up Green weeks ago.
Has to be Counsell at this point.
Worthless as a PH, and not being used for defense.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I am surprised that RR doesn't bring Counsell in for Betancourt late in games for defense.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I'm terrified by this fact
but if he’s not gonna, then……..
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Right
The problem is I doubt DM approves that move. Counsell is a crowd favorite and hometown guy. I don’t know if DM and RR has what it takes to DFA him.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It's just weird to golden-cow a guy
who sits in the dugout – do fans really care if Counsell is there if he never plays? If he was scuffling as our every-day over-the-hill shortstop it would make more sense.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Dumping Yost so late in the season with the playoffs lurking...
I think that took more than asking Counsell to step down and anyway, I’d bet that Counsell would be willing to run the speed pitch machine.
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 22, 2011 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Yost was already on a short leash because of the collapse at the end of the previous season
It looked like the Brewers were going to do it again, so DM did what he felt would motivate the team.
I don’t think fans were that upset that Yost was fired. He had alot of critics.
On the other hand, there are fans who love Counsell despite his lack of production.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Hard to say
but I do know that I’ve heard fans at MP boo Yuni, but never Counsell.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I guess that's the bottom line..
Maybe Counsell’s overall contribution, as subtle and intangible driven as it may be, keeps Melvin from ever considering a DFA. At some point it does begin to feel like a heart warming Rudy story…but who knows what goes on in practices, not to mention Craig as a super PR guy for the Brewers. I’ve never heard anyone say a bad thing about him. This goes along way towards explaining the length of his stay in the major leagues and who knows how much money it brings to the Brewers..
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 22, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Presented without comment:
Taylor Green, 2011 in AAA: .320/.404/.548
Adam Heether, 2009 in AAA: .296/.396/.506
Now that's great tasting chicken!
So what you're saying is that Green will be an All-Star 3B in two years?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Is it bad I have no idea who Adam Heether is?
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess I'm missing it then
Taylor Green is outhitting some guy I’ve never heard of in AAA?
I hope he’s outhitting a lot of guys I’ve never heard of in AAA.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Allow me to fill in the comment that Kyle chose not to state.
Two years ago, a Brewers farmhand (with similar public support for being called up) put up similar numbers in AAA, but could never replicate that success in the Major Leagues, and has languished as a AAAA player subsequently. Therefore, one must temper the expectations placed on Taylor Green and what he might do with the Brewers.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Ah ok.
Didn’t know anything about his 2009 history (pretty much started on BCB in ’10).
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
One correction
Heether never made it to the big leagues in the first place.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 22, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Ah, I was new-ish around 2009.
Figured he at least got a cup of tea.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Adam Heether is pretty largely considered a non-prospect, but we spent a big chunk of 2009 around here marveling at what turned out to be his career year in the PCL.
But that’s all it turned out to be – a career year in the PCL.
I’m not sure what Green’s future looks like, but it’s fair to note that not everyone who hits like he’s hitting right now turns out to be a future MLB star.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Casey McGehee 2011 fWAR: -0.6
The Brewers don’t necessarily need an MLB star. That’s the only reason this is being discussed.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Right
But this isn’t a Yuni situation, where the problem is a guy who is what he is. McGehee’s upside is still relatively high. There’s limited reason to believe he’s going to remain a -0.6 player going forward.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Hardy and Hart simply kept being poor
The Brewers gave them long leashes and they never improved during their down years. They both proved those down years to be extended slumps, but for that particular year, they were terrible.
There’s precedent that McGehee could continue in a negative spiral and end up at -0.9 fWAR for the season.
Does McGehee snap out of it without a stint in AAA or does Green provide a stopgap option while McGehee tries to work it out in Nashville?
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
the long leash did end up paying off in weeks' case, though
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 3:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
When did Weeks have a horrendous first 90 games
And then picked it up in the last 70 games? My memory tends to be selective.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
One thing Green has on his side is age
He’s 3 years younger than Heether was.
But still, good point about PCL stats – one reason I’ve never been a huge fan of the MLE in projecting actual performance.
Get a ife broseph
You are...
In 2009, Adam Heether was in the Brewers organization and hitting that stats line (which is close to Green’s line this season). Two years later, he’s still not on any MLB roster.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
roguejim just started drooling on his laptop.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 22, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
More
Casey McGehee, 2008 in AAA: .296/.345/.429
Because, you know, players obviously can’t ever improve.
Green is probably too green (only 87 games at AAA), but not everyone is Adam Heether, either.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
We are the team that plucked Lucroy out of AA though.
So who knows. Obviously management isn’t as high on Green as his stat line indicates otherwise.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
McGehee
I dont think his upside is high at this point either. I think this is Bill Hall part 2 where a guy with middling minor league numbers has a fluky two years and then falls back to being what he was previously. The difference between Hall and McGehee is that Hall cashed in while McGehee blew his chance at the big bucks.
I dont expect Green to OPS .900 but I think .700-.750 with better defense is reasonable. Its doubtful that Green would be any worse than Casey has been this season. With three shortstops on the roster there is nothing to stop this move from happening other than stubbornness from roenicke and melvin.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
McGehee didn't blow his chance at the big bucks.
He’s too old and too far away from free agency to have management offer him a long-term contract.
Not true
there were reports in spring training that the team was negotiating a long term deal with McGehee. The numbers never came out but maybe the team offered him 10 mil for 3 years. I doubt they offered him as much as hall got but i am pretty certain that whatever they offered is more than he will ever get now.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I doubt their offer (if there was one) was for that much
The fact of the matter is McGehee isn’t going to be a FA until he’s 31… the age at when most ballplayers start to decline. If they did offer him a 3 yr deal, it would basically buy out all his arbitration years.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I think they're just more inclined to let him get more experience rather than rushing him.
I’m sure the organization still is quite high on Green, as they’ve been for years.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Adam Heether was 27.
Brock Kjelgaard has a .924 OPS in A+ but it’s because he’s 25. That doesn’t mean he’s on the same level as age/level appropriate players putting up the same numbers there.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I wouldn't claim that Kjeldgaard's OPS has to do with his age for level
As I keep reminding everyone, he’s old for the level because he’s a converted pitcher.
How long is Gomez out?
Everyone keep saying he’s probably out for the season. Anything I can find online says clavicles are anywhere from 6 weeks to 6 months. If he’s out for two months, he’d still be back in time for the final 6 game homestand to finish the season.
He might not be 100% on swinging the bat, but a broken clavicle wouldn’t have a huge impact on his speed if it’s healed to the point of not hurting him. The Brewers would have the expanded Fall roster to make the decision on his ability to play, too. I wouldn’t give up on Gomez just yet.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
He was reportedly headed to Milwaukee yesterday
If they don’t know already, they’ll know soon. Recovery from surgery would mean he’s out for the season. They might also postpone surgery for a few weeks to see if he heals on his own. What’s the difference being ready to play in January vs. Feburary?
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
I was thinking the same.
We already know his value lies in the field. He doesn’t even have to be able to swing a bat and he would still be worth holding on to for the postseason IMO
Lurking in the waters of BCB since May 21, 2010
-Talk more baseball at @MarcumsChangeup on Twitter
I don't think he would be same fielder, though, if he's not 100%
He broke the clavicle on his glove arm, I think. That’s his “diving arm” for all intents and purposes. He sure does like diving in the outfield.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
it's supposedly a painful injury
so i think he’s done for the year. you’re not going to risk him diving in the field or on the basepaths and reinjuring it. it’s 100% or he’s not ready to go.
by Capt Science on Jul 22, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Nothing eases the pain of losing Go-Go
like knowing we still have some Good Plushdementals Baseball coming our way.
... But more post-game interviews
:)
Throwin' up the T.
by ryan braun on Jul 22, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see you have finally selected a REAL signature.
I approve.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
My favorite part of the game is the Triple Derby.
The video game Home Run Derby has been done to death. It was a refreshing change of pace to be challenged to hit triples. The only problem is that my TV does not have a refresh rate capable of keeping up with Tony Plush rounding the bases, but I can’t let my TV influence my review of this wonderful new video game.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jul 22, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
I do the same
And still hit a bunch of homeruns. If only swinging a real bat was as easy as pulling back on an analog stick and pressing forward at the right times.
Did you read Toby's link in the Mug?
It explains the wide variety of possibilities.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Why do the Reds need a LF?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 22, 2011 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
In case a batter hits a ball into that part of the OF
You need someone there to catch it
Get a ife broseph
Very good, smart guy.
I should have asked why they need ANOTHER left fielder, since they’ve already got Gomes and Heisey and Lewis.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 22, 2011 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think the rumor was they trying to trade a LF for a P
Not trade for a LF and a P
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 22, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think they need both
They could use one of the 3 LF they have now, but none has great value. I wonder if Alonso being left handed is keeping them from being their everyday LF.
At least 4 top quality prospect/young mlb players in that organization that could be dealt if they think they can make a push. Alonso, Mesoracco, Leake, Wood, Bailey all could be moved to improve and make a run. Sheilds works well for them if Jimenez doesnt pan out.
JJ Hardy had a .229/.302/.357 line in his last year in Milwaukee
McGehee’s line is .226/.279/.311 for the year. And JJ Hardy had a better track record before that year. 3B has been nothing short of a dead spot in the lineup. It’s time to bring up Green, what does the organization have to lose?
yeah but I think Escobar was a better prospect than Green is
I don’t think we should compare what happened there…at the time didn’t a lot of people think they bungled this deal?
"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan
The Brewers waited until the second week of August to demote Hardy
I would expect McGehee gets a similar leash before they tell him to ride the pine and bring up Green. Even though he doesn’t have the track record Hardy had, I would bet DM feels pretty foolish allowing Hardy to get away based on this season and if nothing else, that will keep McGehee in Milwaukee for the time being.
40-man roster
The Brewers have 40 players on their 40-man roster, though it’s effectively 39 with Parra still on the 60-day DL. Assuming they make a move before the trade deadline, that means they would have a full 40-man roster. To bring Green up would mean DFA’ing someone when they traded for someone.
Now that it looks like Gomez is going to go on the 60-day DL, that opens another roster spot for Green. They might make a move when the Brewers return for their homestand if McGehee struggles in San Francisco. It would also allow Gomez to come back for the postseason if he’s somehow healthy enough in late September to do so.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Are Junngman and/or Bradley expected to get on the 40 man?
Or were they drafted far enough back that its not an issue?
There’s enough guys currently on the 40 they could take off without stressing too much.
Get a ife broseph
Taking guys off the 40-man this close to the trade deadline and only for a rental
isn’t too appealing.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
Why not?
D-Ray Herraria, DiFelice, Martin Maldonado seem like guys they could easily take off, not to mention a few possible 60 day DL guys like Rogers, Parra, Kintzler,
Get a ife broseph
60-day DL guys don't count towards the 40-man
All of the guys you mentioned have major league experience. Teams stretch at the trade deadline for people.
Those are all guys that could be toss-ins for a trade somewhere, which would also solve the 40-man roster issue.
Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011
If any team wants to stretch for DRH or DiFeliece....
I hope the Brewers get to play them in September
Get a ife broseph
Doubtful
I dont see any way that they are in position to demand major league contracts.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think they do anything with Green before the trade deadline...
They might still be looking at a trade for a third baseman, and I suppose they might even look to trade McGehee even though his trade value is probably very low. Just too much potentially going on especially if they need to free up a spot for him.
I still think Green gets a call up soon even if they don’t trade or demote Casey. He could platoon with Casey and spell Weeks occasionally, and he’d be a nice bat on the bench.
who's Kurt Gibson?
is he Kirk’s brother it alter ego?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 12:14 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
or not not it
damnable technology
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 22, 2011 1:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Somebody received a visit from the Stupid Mistake Fairy today. I hate that fairy.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jul 22, 2011 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
if he's at Kyle's that means he's left my place
except I’ve got the typo faery going with this netbook
by morineko on Jul 22, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Heyman
in his latest article he suggests the Brewers could trade for Beltran to either play CF or move Hart to CF. Does this guy even watch baseball at all to make up this nonsense. The Brewers do not need to trade for an outfielder. Morgan is very good in CF and when we face lefties we can just start Carroll who is supposedly very good defensively as well.
It doesn't seem to make sense, I keep hearing it though.
Maybe they want to unload Hart and his post-’11 contract?
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
Then what?
They’ll need a RF next season, and Beltran will probably cost too much to extend.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Funny thing about the Brewers/Beltran stuff is
That if the Giants are having a hard time parting with a prospect to get the guy, what makes anyone believe that the Brewers can get him? Along those lines, the Giants are reportedly willing to pay the entire amount remaining on Beltrans deal, again more than what the Brewers could chip in.
I think some of those national guys see contending teams, see a guy on the block and if the pieces fit they put them in the rumor mill without considering the hows and whys.
Latest from Buster
Source:Carlos Beltran trade talks down to five serious teams, which includes BOS, SF, PHI, ATL, TEX. CLE, PIT basically out of conversation.
Educated guess on Beltran talks, as of today: I think ATL is the frontrunner, 2. SF. ATL has nice range of P prospects, like Mike Minor.
Get a ife broseph
Trading Mike Minor for 2 months of Beltran?
I think I know what the Braves GM is wearing…
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
by Hyatt on Jul 22, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
and guys
this clip does not get used enough.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
Eh. They've got enough pitching that losing Minor doesn't really hurt their future too much.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
trading a top 30 prospect in all of baseball for a 2 month rental is not high on my list of things to do
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
by Hyatt on Jul 22, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Minor's lustre has faded a bit this year
And hes probably still a top 100 guy but not top 30 like he was previously.
As TC says above, they can afford it. Phillies could pull it off too with a couple of different players, although none as mlb ready as Minor.
The Brewers might be willing to pick up more of the tab in exchange for not having the best prospects.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jul 22, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
My point though relates exactly to that
Reports are that the Giants would pick up the entire tab. Beltrans value, with a premium, and acquiring team picking up all of salary is probably in the mid range prospect area (guy on a teams top 10 but not in the top 100).
The Mets want a nice prospect and are willing to pay for part of the salary. I dont think for them the issue is the contract, which is what the Brewers, and the Giants to a greater extent, are offering.
Even if the Brewers were to pick up half the tab remaining, they have to offer a Heckathorn, Rivas, Peralta, Scarpetta as part of that deal, and the Mets want a top 100 type guy.
Well somebody obviously heard something regarding the Brewers and Beltran.
Let’s imagine that the Brewers inquired about Beltran and found out that they probably didn’t have enough. If Buster Olney finds out that there’s some level of interest, is he supposed to ignore it because he doesn’t think the trade could come to fruition?
He even balked at it while reporting it, with his nickels in the couch comment. It’s not like he’s just making stuff up and speculating like Cafardo.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
True
it seems like any player on the block is being mentioned in connection with the Brewers. This team has a few moves it should and can make rather easily; get a bench bat with power like Wily Mo Pena, trade for a shortstop like Jamey Carroll and try to find a cheap LH reliever. They can make all these moves without giving up anything of real value.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 22, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Green and Greinke
I don’t think we will see green in the big leagues until september. As much is everyone wants him to I don’t think melvin wants to take the risk of putting an untested rookie who hasn’t even played a full year in AAA at third base in a division race. Sure he might be in upgrade or at least as good as what we have now but I don’t think melvin wants to risk his development by rushing into the majors.
Greinke Pitched a very good game I think. Admittedly he did give up 2 home runs but no 1 was on base in I don’t really care how many home runs you give up if you’re only giving up 2 runs. I also dont think ive ever seen any pitcher get as much flax for throwing a get me over fastball in the 3-0 count as Greinke got last night.
Streak Breakers.com
by Flanyboy on Jul 22, 2011 3:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
During Melvin's time in Milwaukee
has there been any call ups that in retrospect look like rushings?
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 22, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I dont know about the rushing thing
Because I dont believe that Melvin pays much attention to something like that. All in means all in, so if Green is an upgrade he will be on the roster sooner or later.
I think the issue with him is that although he is playing very well offensively down there, he has never really been considered a top prospect, or an impact level talent. That being said, there is something about his game that probably doesnt translate well to the mlb level perhaps.
Even though the big leap is from A+ to AA, there is also a big leap between AAA and MLB for hitters and pitchers, so even though his equivalencies might make you believe he could survive or do an average job. That may not be the case.
I agree that he will definitely be on hand come September.
by backtocali on Jul 22, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well said re: Green
As far as rushing – JJ Hardy was probably a little rushed, perhaps Gallardo. Its a fine line between “rushing” a guy and challenging the guy at the next level.
Get a ife broseph
Green is hitting...isn't that enough?
he has never really been considered a top prospect, or an impact level talent. That being said, there is something about his game that probably doesnt translate well to the mlb level perhaps.
Do you think the hit and miss nature of grading prospects and more importantly, the hype over top tier ones is adversely effecting Green’s callup?
I’m not convinced that there might be something not translating well to the MLB level….I’m thinking it’s more reverse hype, but I have never seen him play.
Anyone seen him in person or on the TV?
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 22, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
This
There’s more to a player than just his prospect status as well as what his stats line is in AAA.
Don’t forget, it was only last season when he was in AA and put up .260/.336/.438.
I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to the organization.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I was under the impression Green was always a highly touted bat, maybe not tier 1 (AKA Braun) but still a top hitting propsect who was held back by injuries.... is that not true?
Streak Breakers.com
Looking at BF.net Power 50s
Usually around the 6-12 range in the system. He was a 25th round draft pick, so that gives you an idea of how scouts view his tools back then.
He could be a very fine MLB player, but its not a situation where they’re holding back a Braun, Weeks, Fielder or high ceiling talent.
Get a ife broseph
From the rave reviews in 2008/2009
it sure sounds like it…esecially praise over his plate disciplne at A ball and AA…..
Maybe the key factor in keeping Green down is not about what he can’t do and more about what Casey McGehee has done over the last 2 years and what is still expected this year..If the Brewers plan on keeping Casey at bat, Green belongs in the minors getting his own at bats.
by Rob Deer For President on Jul 22, 2011 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Greinke
The reason why people are discussing the Upton HR PA so much is because it’s one example of what’s going on this season with Greinke. Yes, he’s been putting up great strikeout numbers and hardly walking batters… but his HR/9 is also currently at 1.3. That’s the highest it has been since his rookie year (I’m ignoring his 2006 season when he only pitched 3 games).
Yes, obviously if he only gives up solo HRs it’s not as bad, but he’s giving up almost twice as many HRs as last season… that’s worth some concern.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
But if the saying that "a pitcher can't control whether fly balls leave the park or not" is true
then we don’t have all that much to fear, considering his fly ball % is lower than it’s ever been – 34.5%, 6% lower than his Cy Young season (where he had an equally freakish 4.5% HR/FB ratio in the lucky direction as his 16.3% is unlucky now).
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess the last thing I have to say about "the pitch"
is that when I have a guy striking out 11.75 batters every 9 innings (incredible), but allows 43% of runners he puts on base to score (horrific), I don’t want him giving free passes to anybody, and I’ll take my chances with his stuff when the bases are empty.
by Archibaldcrane on Jul 22, 2011 5:26 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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