Taylor Green And The Two Narratives

by Kyle Lobner on Jul 25, 2011 3:00 PM CDT in Conversation Starters

The Brewers have a few more days before the non-waiver trade deadline to attempt to patch some holes on this team, and one hole many of us would like to see covered up is at third base, where Casey McGehee is having a nightmare season.

If you've been hanging around this site or many others for the last couple of months, you've probably heard a fair amount about Nashville third baseman Taylor Green and his status as a potential alternative at the position. As of Saturday Green was hitting .316/.402/.542 in his first AAA season, his sixth in the Brewer organization.

Obviously, it's easy to look at Green's impressive stat line and make a case that he deserves a shot in the big leagues. Your expectations for his performance, though, probably depend on which of these two stories you believe:

Option 1: Green is finally healthy and returning to form as a top prospect.

Not that long ago, Green was one of the top prospects in a relatively talented Brewer organization. In 2008 John Sickels listed Green as a B- prospect, behind Manny Parra, Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta in the Brewer organization but even with Jonathan Lucroy and ahead of Zach Braddock, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. He was the Brewers' minor league player of the year in 2007 and in 2008, as a 21 year old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he hit .289/.382/.443.

Then, a wrist injury struck and limited Green to 93 games in 2009 between Wisconsin and Huntsville. He was back as a full time player in Huntsville in 2010 but his batting line (.260/.336/.438) was much more pedestrian.

As you probably know from watching Rickie Weeks, it can take a long time for a player with a history of wrist issues to regain his power. You can make a case that 2011 is the first time we've seen Green at full strength since 2008, and his impressive batting line is an indication that he's trending back towards his full potential to be a solid big league regular.

Option 2: Green is having a career year in a hitter friendly league.

The Pacific Coast League is one of the most offense-enhanced minor leagues in all of affiliated baseball, with the league average hitter posting a .286/.360/.453 line in 2011. The league is scoring 5.61 runs per game, which is almost 25% more than the 4.11 per game being scored in the NL.

Those inflated numbers make it hard to take some players' stat lines seriously. George Kottaras, for example, hit .343/.432/.559 in 29 games for Nashville earlier this year. He's a solid major league backup catcher, but those numbers aren't a fair reflection of his true talent level.

Green wouldn't be the first Brewer minor leaguer to generate a fair amount of attention with a big season in AAA. Those of you who have been around this site since 2009 will likely remember Adam Heether. He was a fairly unheralded minor leaguer who became a bit of a cult hero around here by posting a .296/.396/.506 line for Nashville in 2009. The next year, Heether's AAA OPS dropped back down to .737. He's still in AAA in the A's organization.

Heether isn't a perfect comp for Green: For one thing, Green is three years younger than Heether was during his big year. But Heether and others like him (Royals first baseman Kila Ka-aihue, for example) serve as reminders that not every guy who puts up a flashy stat line in AAA can repeat it at the next level.

Conclusion

We're really only having this conversation because Casey McGehee has struggled so mightily in 2011. If McGehee was hitting anything close to last year's .285/.337/.464 line, there would be nowhere for Green to play in the majors and the debate about his prospect status would be something of a moot point.

With that said, I think it's important to note that Green isn't a lock to be an instant MLB contributor either. And even if it's true that he can't be significantly worse than McGehee at this point, I think McGehee's upside would be a fairly significant thing to sacrifice to create playing time for a guy who might not perform noticeably better.

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Comments

Nobody is a lock to to be an instant MLB contributor, but that's no reason to leave them in the minors when they're raking in AAA.

Especially since Green only needs to be a replacement level player to be a huge upgrade over McGehee right now. I also think it’s unfair to compare Green and Heether; Heether was a minor league veteran in his third full AAA season with no real tools or projected upside. Green is following a normal progression schedule despite his wrist injury, has had this kind of success in the past when healthy, and has gotten favorable reviews from prospect evaluators.

He’s probably not a star, but he doesn’t need to be.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jul 25, 2011 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I agree that the Heether comparison is unfair and totally apples-to-oranges

The Heether situation in 2009 is more like what would happen if, say, Jordan Brown suddenly started raking for Nashville. Sure, it’s awesome that he’s hitting, but he’s in his late 20s, he’s never been a real prospect, and there’s no upside or expectation that he could be a significant contributor at the major-league level. (I think the best anyone besides roguejim ever hoped for from Heether was a utility role.)

Green, on the other hand, has some real upside that’s been noticed over the past four years, and is an actual 24-year-old prospect, not minor-league filler. I look at him as a potential Lucroy-like situation: A mid-level prospect who has a strong stretch in the minors, comes up to the big-league club in a pinch and plays competent, though not outstanding, baseball. He’s not some elite uberprospect, but if he’s hitting, it might actually mean something.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 25, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm just going to pretend

that this entire thread doesn’t exist.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jul 25, 2011 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

Also, defense?

How does Green rate defensively at third? Would he be an improvement over Casey?

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jul 25, 2011 3:42 PM CDT reply actions

That's the biggest question

cause his offense couldn’t be much worse

"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck

by dux2bux on Jul 25, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions

A few random quotes (all from 2008, unfortunately)

Baseball America, 2008: “His speed is slightly below average, and his range and arm strength at third base are just adequate. But as farm director Reid Nichols says, ‘He catches it and throws it and the guy is out. That’s the bottom line.’ Originally drafted as a second baseman, Green has a Ron Cey-like build and handles himself decently around the bag.”

minorleaguebaseball.com, 2008: “A shortstop in junior college who started his pro career at second base, his progress at third this season has been impressive and Zduriencik thinks he can be that type of utility guy who can play all three positions down the line. ‘He has really good hands and terrific instincts for the game,’ he said. ’He’s a phenomenal kid, a hard-working guy…He can field everything that’s hit to him, has good first-step quickness and good body control.’”

Keith Law, 2008: “Speaking of Cleveland, the player the Indians didn’t choose to complete the Sabathia trade, Taylor Green, can really hit, but he’s very rough at third base and may end up in the outfield.”

Green was also working on playing catcher prior to this season (2011) during instructionals, though I’m not sure if that says anything about his 3B defense or general defensive ability.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jul 25, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

"Could be a SS" and "Will probably need to be moved to the outfield"

I’m confused.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jul 25, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes.

by OlyKnows on Jul 25, 2011 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions

he can play SS 2B and 3B!

he is the next jeff Cirillo!

Every man must believe in something, I believe I'll have another drink.

by pjpaulus on Jul 25, 2011 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow, wouldn't that be nice!

For your health!

by menchkins on Jul 25, 2011 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions

What about defense

Even if his AAA numbers don’t translate to instant Major League success just the fact that you’re eliminating half of the black hole that is that side of the infield should mean something. McGehee is great and I hope he turns it around in the years to come (if not this year) but if nothing is done with Yuni B it would at least be nice to have a platoon between McGehee and Green to get some defense from that side.

by aka Mich on Jul 25, 2011 3:44 PM CDT reply actions

A platoon might be a good idea

It’s worth noting that Green’s minor league stats fairly substantially favor hitting v. RHP, while McGehee’s major league stats are basically even but slightly favor hitting v. LHP. That way you ease him into the majors, too.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jul 25, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions

I think a platoon is how you'd ease into it.

Try it for a month until rosters expand and see what happens. At least there’s a chance it could work with someone they already have – no such chance at shortstop.

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Jul 25, 2011 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions

If you assume that right handers make up 70% of starting pitchers (just guessing)...

That’s not really “easing him in”.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jul 25, 2011 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions

I think it's roughly 1/3 LHP vs. 2/3 RHP, so yeah.

Better than cutting McGehee and giving Green 100% of the playing time or something like that though.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Jul 25, 2011 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Other than the limited range

that he’s always had, I think McGehee’s defensive “struggles” this season are a bit overhyped. He’s been competent, and probably very similar (if not better than) he was the past couple years.

by Archibaldcrane on Jul 25, 2011 3:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

McGehee is about average on defense

I’d hate to bring up a worse defensive option, especially with Yuni standing at SS

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Jul 26, 2011 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions

Also

…how is Nashville in the Pacific Coast League?

Never quite got that.

by Archibaldcrane on Jul 25, 2011 3:54 PM CDT reply actions

because the American Association broke up a decade ago

Most of the PCL’s American division is old AA teams. (the rest is Canadian PCL teams that moved)

by morineko on Jul 25, 2011 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Have a rec, Queen of Minor League Knowledge

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jul 25, 2011 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Roster Spot....

Would the Brewers send McGehee to AAA to try to fix himself, or would we cut ties with the corpse of Craig Counsell? With Wilson on the team, we don’t lose anything by releasing Counsell…except his veteran leadership, scrapiness, clubhouse presence, etc.

by Flharfh on Jul 25, 2011 4:19 PM CDT reply actions

You lose the best defensive infielder you have.

I don’t think Counsell is going anywhere if Green is called up.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jul 25, 2011 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Counsell needs to retire IMO

For your health!

by menchkins on Jul 25, 2011 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Is that you, Todd Rundgren?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jul 25, 2011 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions

sadly

I’m mostly in the “Free Taylor Green” camp not because of McGehee replacement, but because Counsell’s bat has got me wondering if the Crew could convert Shaun Marcum back to shortstop just in case.

by morineko on Jul 25, 2011 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions

adios Mr. Wilson

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Jul 25, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions

You could just cut Yuni

but I think that you are right and Wilson is the more likely one to go.

by Saltire on Jul 25, 2011 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Obligatory "there's a difference between what the smartest move is and what the front office will do" post

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jul 25, 2011 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions

At what point would Green need to be on the 40-man roster to be eligible for the playoffs?

Let’s say Melvin doesn’t want to call Green up until rosters expand. Then, Green gets a few spot starts (if Casey’s still batting poorly) and pinch hit opportunities and actually plays really well. Would Green be eligible for the playoff roster?

Obviously, that is a long string of conditions but worth considering if we want to have the best players available for the hoped-for post season run.

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jul 25, 2011 5:20 PM CDT reply actions

40 man means nothing to playoffs.

A player has to have logged time on the 25 man roster prior to Sep. 1st to be playoff eligible.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jul 25, 2011 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks

It would be interesting if Melvin decided to call him up the day before rosters expand (and then recall whoever was sent down on the next day) just to keep the playoff roster options as wide open as possible.

Of course, it could also be worth the gamble to see if Green could help us in August.

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jul 25, 2011 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Unless he's taking the place of someone put on the DL, right?

Isn’t that the K-Rod rule?

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 25, 2011 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions

you are correct noah

Every man must believe in something, I believe I'll have another drink.

by pjpaulus on Jul 25, 2011 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions

The PCL may be a hitter's league

…but Nashville is a pretty neutral park.

@SessileFielder

by battlekow on Jul 25, 2011 6:05 PM CDT reply actions

isn't most of the PCL pretty neutral?

other than extreme outliers like Reno, Colorado Springs and Albuquerque? (supposedly Round Rock is having issues with fly balls this year but I think it’s probably that bunch of pitchers)

by morineko on Jul 25, 2011 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Wind's been blowing out a ton in Round Rock this year, for whatever reason.

That might be part of it.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 26, 2011 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions

I think McGehee’s upside would be a fairly significant thing to sacrifice to create playing time for a guy who might not perform noticeably better.

Depends what you think McGehee’s upside is.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 25, 2011 6:38 PM CDT reply actions

Green

I have made my feelings on the subject known for weeks now. Taylor Green is a very good hitter who is also a better defender than McGehee. I think at worst he would be a .700 or so OPS guy with improved defense. As for McGehee I think he is the second coming of Bill Hall. Both Hall and McGehee had spotty minor league track records and both came out of nowhere to have two good years before falling off the face of the earth production wise. Luckily for Hall he cashed in while casey missed his chance last offseason.

It is my opinion that McGehee is done being a viable major league starting third baseman. Green on the other hand has a much better track record in the minor leagues and his last few seasons were down due to the wrist injury. Now that Taylor is healthy I think he can be a good starting third baseman for the Brewers.

This team has pretty much all scrubs on the bench. We are carrying Kotsay, Wilson, Counsell and Carroll as bench players and none of them can hit at all. There is no reason why this team needs to carry three shortstops all of which are below replacement level players. Its time that Green gets the call to get a shot at the third base job because the odds of him being worse than Casey are very unlikely. Unfortunately I think Green may be one of the PTBNL in the K Rod deal which would be a disaster in my opinion. If Melvin and Roenicke choose to be stubborn hoping that Casey and Yuni will magically turn things around it may end up costing them their jobs.

by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 25, 2011 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Streak Breakers.com

by Flanyboy on Jul 26, 2011 2:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Safe not Save

Streak Breakers.com

by Flanyboy on Jul 26, 2011 2:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm going to accept this as an answer to my fanpost.

Thank you.

You gotta eat lightning and crap thunder, Plush!

by brewersfanatic on Jul 25, 2011 7:18 PM CDT reply actions

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