Brewers 7, Twins 9: Role Reversal
by Noah Jarosh on Jul 3, 2011 4:31 PM CDT
in WPA Game Recaps
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PrintWin: Phil Dumatrait (1-1)
Loss: Kameron Loe (2-7)
Save: Glen Perkins (1)
HR: Kotsay (1), Weeks (15), Thome (6), Tosoni (2)
MVP: Mark Kotsay (.177)
LVP: Kameron Loe (-.579)
Yesterday, the Brewers came back from a big deficit to win the game. Today, it was the Twins turn. The Brewers took a 6-1 lead after a magnificent five run third inning, only to give up a three run homer to the Twins in the bottom half of that frame. Then another run in the fifth. And finally, four runs in the seventh inning, totaling up to a final score of 7-9 in favor of Minnesota.
Mark Kotsay had an interesting day. He finally managed to hit his first home run of the year (an upper decker to right field!) and followed that up with a two run triple to spark the Brewers big fifth inning. Awesome, right? Well, then he helped blow the game by misplaying a Danny Valencia hit in the ninth inning that allowed three runs to score when a mere one would have crossed the plate had he made a clean play. So, instead of the game being tied, Kotsay's error put the Twins up by two. It really wasn't a difficult play either. It was a pretty ordinary single hit to right field that Kotsay let go under his glove. So despite having probably his best offensive game of the season, the veteran still managed to help the Brewers lose.
The Brewers did manage a last gasp in the ninth as Rickie Weeks singled, Nyjer Morgan reached first on a fielders choice (Week's getting forced out), and Corey Hart singled. That brought Prince Fielder to the plate with two on, but the Twins brought in lefty Glen Perkins who promptly struck Prince out. The Brewers brought in Casey McGehee to pinch hit and he fought off a couple tough pitches, but still fell to a strikeout.
Zack Greinke wasn't at his best, going six innings and allowing five runs (four earned), including two home runs. He allowed five hits and walked a whole two batters! He also only struck out nine Twins batters.
Milwaukee finally gets to go home again, starting a series against the Diamondbacks tomorrow afternoon.
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hahahaha, at least Kotsay was the game MVP
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
Well hopefully they turn it around before the ASG
Can’t be too upset that you play this bad and are still in first place though.
Grillax people
This is where I disagree completely
This “we are still in first place” nonsense does not tell the true story of this team. The fact is if we werent in a terrible division we wouldnt be anywhere near first place. We are truly lucky that the whole division is terrible. Truth is we can easily be in th place in a few days and thats just not good enough in a season where we are “all in”.
We lead all of baseball in outs made on the basepaths, Loe is the “rock” of our bullpen in the managers eyes and we have the worst bench in all of baseball. If this team does not make some meaningfull changes we will most likely not be a playoff team and even if we squeek by this awful division we will be out of the playoffs quickly.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Go root for the Cardinals then.
Jesus…
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Its one game, it sucks, but its still one game
Lets not piss our pants just yet
He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…
The best teams in baseball generally lose 65-72 times per year.
This isn’t college football. Freaking out after every loss doesn’t make any sense to me. So yeah, I guess you’re right.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
It's not like this after *every* loss.
I think a little freaking out is OK when you gag away a 6-1 lead with your ace on the mound.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I'd say it's like this more often than not after losses.
That may just be because it gets on my nerves so it stands out to me though.
To each his own then, I guess.
If it was 2008 and we had Sabathia, Sheets and nobody else, I’d probably be more worried. Since it’s not, and since we’ve gotten (periodically at least) great starts out of everyone in the rotation, the fact that Greinke hasn’t figured it out yet doesn’t bother me as much. Yeah, they should have found a way to win today. But they shouldn’t have won yesterday either after falling behind 7-0, so the net loss is 0, from my perspective.
I guess it’s probably not like this after every loss, but it’s like this after a lot of them, particularly lately. I just don’t get the point of putting so much energy into being depressed.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I'm glad you're taking the "cheer up" position and not me
If I had to do it I’d be banned. I’m fed up with the depressoids.
It's also not every loss. this was a 1-5 road trip from a team that has been indescribably horrible on the road.
That might call for a little bit of concern.
For your health!
He is right though.
They really do need to do something to improve the team.
The Cards are tied with us despite losing Pujols for a stretch and losing Wainwright for the season.
That doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
For your health!
The Brewers had injuries too this season ya know?
it’s not like the Cards ran away with the division then.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Jul 3, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Not those kind of injuries, if we lost Braun or Fielder for 6 weeks and one of our frontline starters how well do you think we'd perform?
For your health!
We did lose one of our frontline starters for more than a month
And Hart for the same amount of time. And Lucroy. And Morgan. And everyone in the bullpen but Ax and Loe at some point or another. The Cards have us beat in the ‘severity of injuries’ race, but not by nearly as much as their fans would have you believe.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 3, 2011 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Whoops
Just realized TSSC said the exact same thing below. I suppose it doesn’t hurt to say it twice.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 3, 2011 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I think they've got us beat in quantity of injuries, too.
Pujols, Holliday, Theriot, McClellan, Craig, Freese, Punto, Schumaker, Laird, and a few relievers, too … It seems like there’s a new injury note for them every day.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Oh, no doubt.
I’m just saying this division race isn’t like a fight between an able-bodied man and a one-armed, one-legged blind man, which is what it’s being made out to be.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 3, 2011 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't disagree that they need to try to make a move...
… even if it’s within the system. And yeah, the Cards are finding a way to hang around in spite of significant injury problems.
We’ve also found a way to hang around even though Greinke missed 7-8 starts, even though Hart, Lucroy and Morgan missed significant time, not to mention Saito who would have kept a lot of wear and tear off of Loe and others. I’m not sure why the Cards always get credit for overcoming their injury problems in these conversations and everyone always forgets the Brewers have dealt with a lot of the same thing.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah but Greinke hasn't been much of an addition frankly.
He gets wins but Estrada had better numbers as a starter.
For your health!
That's even more reason the Brewers should get credit
Greinke not pitching as anywhere near an ace is basically like having him injured. Unless you are suggesting we should just start Estrada in place of him based on a tiny sample size.
The question remains.
Take Braun or Fielder out of our lineup for an extended period of time.
How well would the team perform?
For your health!
Who gives a shit?
If you want to torture yourself with hypotheticals about how the Cards are better without their best guys than we would be without ours, go right ahead. Until one of them gets hurt for an extended period of time, I could really care less what the answer to that question is.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
My only point is that they realy need to do something to make this team stronger.
If that means giving Green a shot at 3b for a while or starting Josh Wilson at SS, they need to try something.
Also, RR needs to get over his love affair with Loe (or “roles” for pitchers really)
For your health!
I don't see how your hypothetical addresses either of those points.
But I agree with you that they need to try something else at 3B or SS. That’s probably why Gamel started at 3B today.
Unfortunately, there are about a dozen teams (it seems like) in the market for SS help right now.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
And none to be had which really really sucks
If I were running things I would call up Angel Gonzalez from AA and give him a shot. Never know.
For your health!
He was answering your question
about why the Cards get credit for winning while missing some major components but the Brewers don’t.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I don't think he was, since he didn't reply to the comment that contained that question.
But if I’m wrong and it was a reply fail, I still don’t think it’s an answer, and I still don’t think speculating as to how poorly we’d do without Braun or Fielder for an extended period of time tells us anything about the relative strength of the team we actually have on the field.
I agree, however, that making a move at one or two positions would be helpful. I’m just not sure its possible.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
That is what I was responding to and it's a clear answer to the question.
Their injuries have been much worse than ours and they’re still in first.
If the same thing happened to us we’d be screwed (IMO)
For your health!
Both to your suggestion that it actually answers my question...
… or to the conclusions you reached.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
They've also had guys like Berkman play way out of their mind
It goes both ways IMO. They could’ve had a healthy and productive Pujols/Wainwright and Berkman and others could have played terrible. It’s all how it shakes out.
It’s just like McGehee and Hart for us. We would be a lot better if they were consistently producing for us like they did last year, but they’re not.
Grillax people
by jmeks23 on Jul 3, 2011 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see how you don't understand this.
The Brewers injuries are not comparable to the Cardinals injuries because the Cardinals lost Wainwright and Pujols for extended periods of time. If the Brewers lost at least Fielder or Braun for a good length of time then they would be comparable.
Greinke = chopped liver
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 3, 2011 11:45 PM CDT up reply actions
So freaking what?
I understand the theory that they’ve been hit harder by injuries than we have. I just don’t think it means they’re better than us. I honestly don’t think it says anything about the Brewers at all.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 4, 2011 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions
It doesn't say anything about the Brewers
It does say a bunch of what the Cardinals could be.
I don’t care what the Cardinals “could be”. I barely care what they actually are,
But if you want to become convinced that they’re significantly better than they’re record suggests, go ahead. Enjoy yourself. Just don’t expect me to join you in your neurosis.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 4, 2011 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions
I guess my argument
is that the most likely possibility is that the Brewers will miss out on the playoffs. Even if they do make it, this season should not be considered some great success by Doug Melvin. Two playoff appearances in 10 years with what the Brewers payroll is, should not be considered a success, but a failure of management.
I don't agree with you there. They don't have a high payroll and lot of those years were spent building the team we currently have. (including the the All Sta starters we have this year)
For your health!
by menchkins on Jul 4, 2011 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Their payroll is not high to the point where they should win the division every year.
But it is high enough, that with proper management they should win the division every 2-3 years on average. I am sorry, but the Rays have a much lower payroll, have been very good each of the last 3 years in the toughest division in baseball and still have one of the strongest minor league systems.
The Rays are an anomly though.
Name another team with as low a payroll as the Brewers 85MM-ish that have had that kind of success.
For your health!
Athletics
from in the early 2000s. The Marlins have done it twice. The Twins were good before they made the mistake of giving mauer a ton of money. The Padres were good for a while. Atlanta does not have a high payroll, are currently better than the Brewers and have a good minor league system. The Rangers payroll is only 7 million more than the Brewers.Cleveland and Cincinnati also. I wouldnt even consider most of those organizations very well run.
Key word could.
While I agree it has had some impact, some are making it sound like the Brewers are just lucky the Cards are hobbled else they wouldn’t stand a chance. While no one knows how a healthy Cards lineup really would stack up to a healthy Brewers lineup it’s just irritating to hear the assumption that they are the guaranteed winner in that situation.
Bernie: I seem to have lost my sense of direction!
Kermit: Have you tried Hare Krishna?
by pumpkinking on Jul 4, 2011 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
The simple fact is the Brewers are an Amazing team at home and a horrible team on the road.
They need to fix that. No, I don’t know how we would do that.
We also have some serious problems with the way RR manages the bullpen and some even greater problems with the left side of our infield.
Did you know that Almonte is now listed as a SS at AAA?!
Yikes
BTW – does anyone know how the Mexican leagues work? Luiz Cruz is currently playing (and playing extremely well) in Mexico. Do the Rangers still somehow control him or could we try to get him back? Anyone have any idea on that?
For your health!
Look up their BABIP splits, please
at home, tied for the third highest (luckiest), on the road tied for the third lowest (unluckiest).
There’s your answer.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 4, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
They are not a guaranteed winner
They would just be the more likely winner. The Brewers could still win the division, I am not saying there is no way.
Wainwright
I don’t think Adam Wainwright has established himself as the only starter in baseball who will undoubtedly have a Cy Young caliber year if healthy.
by gene dietzgen on Jul 4, 2011 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Wainwright
There’s no certainty he’d be meaningfully contributing to the Cardinals, anyway. Their staff has allowed only 10 more runs than the Brewers’ without Wainwright, so being without him hasn’t really been an issue for them, i.e. it isn’t necessarily reflected in their record. Since they’ve been able to competently fill the void, we’re not seeing a wholly different Cardinals staff. So far, anyway. Even with a replacement-level replacement, Wainwright at the level of his two previous years would be worth an extra three wins so far, which puts the Cards in first but not out of reach. But then we’d be bitching about how we didn’t have Greinke for a month and what a difference it would have made.
by gene dietzgen on Jul 4, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you replaced the woefully underperforming Carpenter with Wainwright from the last few years it would make a huge difference.
For your health!
Can you quantify "huge difference?"
And in this scenario, is Carpenter out for the year in place of Wainwright?
by gene dietzgen on Jul 4, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Have you looked at the season Chris Carpenter is having?
So much for expectations.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 4, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I get the theory.
I just don’t accept the conclusion that this somehow means we’re an inferior team to the Cardinals. I’ll accept that if they finish the season with more wins than the Brewers and not before, and I’m not going to waste my team dreaming of how we’d fare worse with more injuries than the Cardinals do.
I don’t see how you don’t understand that.
.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 4, 2011 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Should it not be troubling
that the Brewers have not outperformed a very injured Cardinals team. Although really Wainwright should be thrown out of the argument because he cannot return to the Cardinals this year and improve their talent.
A Cardinals team that was overperforming.
I can buy that the Cardinals have been more “unlucky” than the Brewers in the injury department, but they have also been much less “unlucky” (and actually quite lucky) in the on-the-field performance department.
Everyone coming into the season predicted a three-way contest between the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds, and… that’s basically what it is. Why are the Cardinals suddenly the powerhouse team to beat?
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 4, 2011 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Because they are thriving through adversity rather than falling away
Keep in mind though, if the Brewers would just play .500 on the road, or even close to it, this division wouldn’t even be close.
For your health!
Because Lance Berkman was generally predicted to play poorly
and has shown that last year was more likely an aberration than the start of a downward spiral. His performance was unaccounted for in pre-season predictions. He will not stay this hot the rest of the year, but he will also still hit better the rest of the way out than what the projections had him doing.
Also, Nyjer Morgan has been worth .5 WAR less than Pujols this season
we lost him for a significant amount of time. So its a wash.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 4, 2011 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Let me clarify my position so there is no confusion.
I DO think the Brewers SHOULD be the best team in the central this year. However, their play on the road and the underperformance of McGehee and Greinke (to some extent) are very concerning.
I think they should easily be a playoff team this year and could be a WS contender but every time we go on the road and keep adding to our losing record I become more and more concerned that they aren’t going to pull it off.
It doesn’t matter who is a better team between us and the Cardinals, or us and any other team for that matter. What matters is who plays better ball and right now the Brewers are not taking advantage when they should and are just not looking so hot.
I hope that in the second half they start firing on all cylinders and we don’t have to worry about it anymore.
For your health!
"Estrada had better numbers as a starter"
That depends on which numbers you look at. But by all means, call Melvin and try to convince him to demote Greinke if you really think Estrada’s better.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Have you got his number?
Seriously though, I obviously wouldn’t do that, I’m hoping things turn around for Greinke and I definitely think they should based on his career numbers.
I would like to try to convince him to make a couple of other moves though.
For your health!
Actually the first paragraph is in many ways correct
Objectively the Brewers need to be putting some ground between them and the rest of the division now. The Cardinals are only going to improve once Pujols gets back. Plus they have prospects to trade to improve their major league club if need be. Anyone that thinks they are not going for it as much as the Brewers are is kidding themselves. They want to convince Pujols to stay and if he does not this may be their last year to win also. Sure the Brewers could outplay the Cardinals the rest of the way, but the chances of them doing that to make the playoffs are probably below even. I am not being pessimistic, this is just how it is.
okay deep breath from me: done with a brutal interleague still tied for first in the Central. There are worse things.
The only thing I’m truly mad about is the fact I wasted 24 bucks on a Greinke shirt jersey before the season. haha, gonna have to get a Weeks one very soon.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Jul 3, 2011 4:36 PM CDT reply actions
Greinke
when does he start taking some heat for the way he has pitched. We can all read the nonsense about how he is lucky or how is xFIP is so far below his ERA or how much the Brewers defense sucks but the facts are the facts. The guy has been rocked way too often this year and its a shame that runs is not enough for him against a mediocre at best offense.
Either you agree with sabermetrics or you don't
It sounds like you don’t, and that’s fine.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with sabermetrics to a point
but I also have to go by what I see and that is a lot of hard hit balls on Greinke. He has had bad luck in that the defense behind him has been atrocious but that doesnt excuse all the hard hit balls and three run homers he has given up. I agree that his true ERA would be somewhat lower but I find it hard to believe that anyone would say he has pitched well for the most part.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions
He has pitched very well
Hard hit balls and BABIP are outside of his control.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
How are hard hit balls out of his control
if he is grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate and they are smoked its because his location sucks. The awful defense we play is out of his control but so many line drives are a direct result of him not pitching well.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
BABIP being outside of the pitcher's control underlies most of sabermetrics
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I understand BABIP being outside of his control...
But what is the explanation for hard hit balls being out of his control. To some extent I see it, because every once in a while a good hitter will pound a good pitch. But alot of the time hard hit balls result from mistakes, which would seem to be under his control to me.
I think this is one of the original articles by Voros McCracken, if you’re interested.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Interesting
Can’t say I necessarily agree with the hard hit balls logic, but I at least see the reasoning behind it now, thanks.
Well, how about
Greinke gives up 25% line drives, Marcum is only 18%. That tells me that hitters square up on Greinke’s stuff 40% more often.
Ok, but that has nothing to do with what Greinke is throwing.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
One possibility
Because most of sabermetrics was developed using a guess and check formula, there exists a possibility that some players performance does not and will never correlate with what their advanced statistics point to.
I can believe that in extreme cases; it certainly seems like it might be the case with Manny Parra
But Greinke has pitched 1170 IP and his past performance contradicts the notion that he’s a high-BABIP or underachieving pitcher. Which is one of the main reasons that fielding independent pitching metrics were developed; certain things fluctuate so much from season to season that they clearly aren’t tied to the pitcher himself.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
I agree with you, but the possibility exists.
Even so, by him pitching poorly it is creating a great buy-low opportunity, in theory of course.
It's not happening for Greinke this year.
If you can’t get healthy against that AAA lineup, I don’t know that we should expect him to turn it around.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Yeah, Jim Thome sucks.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
That lineup is awful outside of
Mauer, Cuddyer, and Thome. A 6-1 lead against that team should be more than safe no matter how pitiful our defense is.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Valencia
has a .280 OBP and .657 OPS. That might be good for our third baseman but its still awful.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions
.657 OPS is not .000 OPS
People are going to get their hits from time to time. Small sample size, etc.
Mauer, Cuddyer, and Thome accounted for four of the seven BB/H that Greinke gave up.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
6- 1
lead should be safe with a supposed ace on the mound.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not how baseball works.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Against the Yankees? Maybe not.
Against the Twins? Definitely.
There might be some days to defend Greinke. Today is not one of them.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I'm defending Greinke because he didn't pitch poorly
And baseball is a game where any team on any day against any opponent can come back from being five runs down and win. That’s the game.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
(And for the record, he did pitch poorly vs. New York. He didn't today.)
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Like I said earlier in the comments, I know not everybody buys sabermetrics. That's fine.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
If it was fine
I don’t think the conversation would have reached this point.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I come here because I enjoy discussing baseball
But I’m not going to stop and agree with you if your only argument is “You are wrong, the Twins sucks.” Sorry, I guess?
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
My bad:
The Twins have the fourth-worst wOBA, as a team, in MLB: .293. They’ve hit 48 homers all season long. As a team, their ISO is .108, third-lowest in baseball.
I think Greinke should be able to protect a five-run lead against that crew.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 3, 2011 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
He should but that does not mean he will
Lets say he faces the twins 100 times and protects a 6-1 lead 99 times. This could be the one time he doesn’t. Of course we will never know if this is the case. What this means is that you are using very broad statistics on a small sample size to invalidate other broad statistics. It really is not difficult to argue against improper use of statistical evidence.
by diegop89 on Jul 3, 2011 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
You can argue it but the results are the results.
Geinke said himself he doesn’t know why he’s throwing the pitches he is in high pressure situations. That’s got nothing to do with metrics and everything to do with bad pitch selection / execution. He said it himself.
For your health!
Baseball Players know how to play baseball
and know little in how to evaluate it.
That seems like a ridiculous statement.
People can argue the metrics angle all they want but when the guy who is making the mistakes says himself that he’s doing it wrong, I for one am going to take his word for it.
This is a former Cy Young award winner. I think he knows how to pitch and also knows when he’s not doing something right.
He’s throwing pitches that are more likely to be hit hard and he knows it.
For your health!
by menchkins on Jul 4, 2011 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
According to UZR Alfonso Soriano is an elite outfielder.
Anyone who has ever watched him play knows that this is not even remotely close to true.
The metrics stuff is interesting but it is by no means infallible.
Like I said, if a former Cy Young Award winner tells me he’s making the wrong pitches in certain situations I’m going to take his word that he knows what the hell he’s talking about over some numbers on a sheet that keep saying he’s just unlucky.
For your health!
by menchkins on Jul 4, 2011 12:56 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Greinke sure has had a lot of
“this is the one time out of 100 that this is going to happen to a pitcher this good” this season.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 4, 2011 6:01 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Greinke held the twins to a .208 AVG and .269 OBP today with a 38.0 K% (1.16 WHIP, if you’d prefer). As a comparison, Roy Halladay is holding opponents to a .243 AVG and .266 OBP this year and is generally considered the best pitcher in baseball right now.
Obviously, the problem was the SLG (.500 including the two home runs), but 1) a 33.3 HR/FB% is clearly way above any sustainable level and 2) one of those home runs came off of Jim Thome, who I believe is eighth all time in career home runs and clearly is not a crappy hitter to give up a home run to.
Maybe the pitch to Rene Tosoni was a mistake, but one pitch does not a poor, indefensible start make.
The Twins have been a light hitting team this season (although, without Mauer and some other key players) but Greinke held them below the Mendoza Line today and gave up two unfortunately timed home runs, one of which was to a Hall of Fame slugger. It sucks that it resulted in 5 R/4 ER, but how much better did you want Greinke to be?
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 4, 2011 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
We will have to agree to disagree
but in my opinion Greinke did not pitch well at all today. Giving up two HRs including one to the infamous Rene Tosoni and his .520 OPS is not a case of pitching well.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Because we suck, apparently.
Oh, and the Cardinals are awesome.
Yeah, I’m a dick. Time for me to hit the road.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's a legitimate question.
We are the worst team in baseball on the road and one of the best (if not the best) at home.
That’s a pretty huge disparity.
For your health!
I don't know. Do you?
It happens, and not just to us, every few seasons. I don’t think it’s because we suck.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Wish I did.
I default to thinking it must have something to do with how they prepare before playing on the road so maybe it’s on the manager? I really don’t know.
For your health!
I guess it's possibly related to preparation.
Far more often than not, however, I think these things have more to do with statistical anomalies than they do any actual causal relationship with something the team is actually doing or the kind of team they actually are. The few occasions historically where that wasn’t the case have been when a team was specifically constructed to take advantage of a feature of their home stadium (like the Rockies a decade ago or so).
I keep going back a few years where we were very good on the road and bad at home based on W/L records. A lot of the key players are the same (Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Hart, and even Gallardo, if memory serves.)
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 3, 2011 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I'm not sure I mind the home/road discrepancy
at the moment. I’m happy we’ve got a great record at home, and that it shouldn’t be thrown in as a weakness. Don’t sell the team short by including the record as a reason we’ve got work to do on the road…
Or I’ll re-structure this; *We’ve got a great record at home and that’s awesome. Meanwhile, it’d be nice to play well on the road, too. Because that’d be sweet.
Dan Uggla did not respect Zack Greinke, Ryan Braun or Alex Gonzalez when he fouled off 5 of the 9 pitches in that first at-bat.
by Jess'HittheBall on Jul 3, 2011 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I just want them to play .500 on the road and continue their winning ways at home.
If they do that, this division is a lock.
For your health!
Pittsburgh
when do we start taking them seriously? The optimists can all say we are still in first place in this lousy division but we are also 2 games out of fourth.
they worry me more than Cincinnati
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
no
they both worry me
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
I think their pitching is grossly overperforming. I would expect them to fall fast in the second half.
The optimist in me also says that the Brewers will start winning on the road in the second half.
For your health!
Pretty much this.
Their starters have lower strikeout rates, higher walk rates, and abnormally low HR/FB rates.
Their pitchers are certainly overperforming, but I'd say their bats are underperforming.
Still, I’m not arguing that the Pirates couldn’t be contenders, but to be more worried about them than the Reds is crazy.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I just only want to worry about one team at a time
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
We have to take everyone seriously
because we have some very serious holes with our team. The left side of the infield is a complete black hole, we have an awful bench and an idiot manager.
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
at least the Cubs are 10 back
"This one means 'Kill Kirk!!!!'... And also, 'hallelujah'... Depending on the context."
by trippingandy on Jul 3, 2011 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, now that you put it this way...
I wouldn’t get complacent either. I’m least worried about the Pirates, though, as opposed to the Reds and Cardinals.
I have an issue with calling the left side a black hole
because black holes absorb everything. Defensively, Casey and Yuni absorb nothing. I think of them more as a Dutch dam made of Swiss cheese.
The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"
The Brewers on the road: "all we do is lose, lose lose, no matter what..."
Batters are hitting his pitches hard, the same reason he has such a high HR/FB%
Depending on who you ask, that’s either because he’s been relatively “unlucky” or because he’s throwing bad pitches.
Personally, I find the latter explanation hard to believe given his K/9 and BB/9.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he's throwing bad pitches.
The next time you’re watching him pitch, imagine yourself as the hitter, and try to guess what pitch is coming next, and where. After about two innings it gets pretty easy.
Greinke finds the latter explanation plausible:
“You always make [mistakes], but I’ve been making them too much in big situations,” Greinke said. “Those are the times you need to get out of it and make good pitches. I seem to be making bad pitches in the most important times. I need to figure out how to stop doing that. It’s upsetting.”
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
And, specifically, on the pitch that Tosoni crushed:
“I don’t know why I made a pitch that bad when there’s two guys on base,” Greinke said. “I don’t get it.”
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Sure. But a lot of really good baseball players also think they're pitching poorly when they're not getting a bunch of Wins.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
A player overvaluing a worthless statistic
is not at all similar to a player acknowledging that he’s not executing in some really, really bad situations.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jul 4, 2011 5:55 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Really the problem
is that he is making the poor pitches (getting hit hard) with runners on base. He is not unlucky because he is making poor pitches because all pitchers make poor pitches. He is really just unlucky because these poor pitches are occurring at the wrong times.
by diegop89 on Jul 4, 2011 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Quick question
wouldnt a bloop single be considered luck but a line drive not. Why exactly is it considered bad luck for Greinke when Rene Tosoni hits a 3 run HR? Im not being a troll when i ask a question like this Im am curious.
What differentiates luck from just poor pitches that are being smoked?
I've never understood that either.
Obviously a player like YB is going to have a low BABIP.
It’s not because he’s unlucky, it’s because he hits the ball like shit.
For your health!
Thats exactly my point
shouldnt Ryan Braun have a higher BABIP than Yuni or Casey? I just dont get all this Greinke is unlucky talk when so many balls are getting hit hard. Clearly the defense is a factor but it doesnt excuse the constant line drives and HRs
by bklynbrewcrew on Jul 3, 2011 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Because there has been serious man love for Zach in MKE for yrs. So let there be excuses
Unlucky and sabermetrics my ass.. Zach has looked very hittable the 3 times I’ve seen him pitch. Zach needs to grow a set and start making batters his bitch instead of him getting bitch slapped around.
I don't think people are only defending ZacK because of man love
The sabermetrics, whether you believe them or not, generally defend him. It’s not like people are going around making up new stats to make him look good.
I think you should become his baseball coach, and show him how to do that.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 3, 2011 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions
There's some skill variance in BABIP, but not a whole lot - that's the point of controlling for it.
A terrible player who doesn’t walk and beats balls into the ground will have a slightly lower BABIP than normal, a really fast player that can beat out things that a normal player would be out on will be higher, but otherwise it really does normalize.
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Jul 3, 2011 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is exactly the point
Whether the ball is hit shitty or not is much more in control of the hitter than the pitcher.
Because balls getting smoked don’t necessarily correlate with “poor pitches.” The things that do correlate with poor/good pitching over longer periods of time are K/BB and HR (with the further caveat of HR rates regressing to standard HR/FB rates over time). It’s counterintuitive to think that the pitcher has little control over what happens to a ball after it makes contact with a bat, and a lot of people obviously think that it’s nonsense, but that’s the assumption underlying BABIP, FIP, etc. and depending on who you ask there is a lot of compelling evidence proving it.
"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"
by SRB on Jul 3, 2011 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Home runs are the exception.
The bad luck for Greinke was not the home run, but the fact that the home run was hit with two runners on.
I was wondering how much of Grenkies bad last two games
Has to do with they were against AL teams that have seen him a lot in the past? But that being said Zack is not giving me the same Good vibe that CC did when we got him.
And Yes Kotsay sucks goes without saying but Loe has 7 losses now is this really the guy we want pitching as our set up man?
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
This was part of the reason I was so opposed to dumping Mitre
Mitre is great at inducing ground balls so when Loe isn’t working right, we had a back up.
For your health!
Yeah, Loe does have a lot more good outings then bad,
but at this point the bad ones are really costing the Brewers. And it seems most of them are on the road too. Part of the reason they’re so bad on the road.
Grillax people
Anyway, gotta run everyone. Hopefully we keep crushing our opponents on the road and get this road trip out of our heads.
We have to play the Reds though don’t we….. ugh
For your health!
Happy no more interleague day everyone.
We few, we happy few, we band of Brewers.
by Zorakathura on Jul 3, 2011 5:55 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Hooray!
Now I can stop paying attention to the American League again.
by jcollins205 on Jul 3, 2011 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yes.
Dan Uggla did not respect Zack Greinke, Ryan Braun or Alex Gonzalez when he fouled off 5 of the 9 pitches in that first at-bat.
by Jess'HittheBall on Jul 3, 2011 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions
It's all real baseball from here 'til Novemeber.
The Brewers at Miller Park: "ALL WE DO IS WIN, WIN, WIN NO MATTER WHAT"
The Brewers on the road: "all we do is lose, lose lose, no matter what..."
Anyone?
Does anyone know how the Mexican leagues work? Luiz Cruz is currently playing (and playing extremely well) in Mexico. Do the Rangers still somehow control him or could we try to get him back? Anyone have any idea on that?
For your health!
Why was Gamel replaced defensively but not Kotsay?
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I am not saying Gamel shouldn't have been replaced.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
He definitely should have been
I can’t remember what they had left on the bench.
If Gomez was available it’s inexcusable not to have put him in the game and moved Morgan to left.
Frankly even having Gamel in left probably would have been better than Kotsay, he’s played a fair amount of time in the outfield.
For your health!
I don't think Gamel has actually played much outfield.
I wouldn’t have had a problem with them leaving both Gamel and Kotsay in but if you are making defensive substitutions, you put your best defender in the field. That is Gomez.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 12:11 PM CDT)
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