Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Wolf) vs Diamondbacks (Duke)

by Kyle Lobner on Jul 5, 2011 5:00 PM CDT in Game Previews

According to the new hotline, Miller Park's roof will be open tonight when the Brewers and Diamondbacks resume play tonight at 7:10.

When they take the field, Randy Wolf (3.33 ERA, 4.18 FIP) will be on the mound. Wolf has been a pleasant surprise this season: FanGraphs estimates his value at 0.8 WAR, which is already more than his 0.7 from 2010. He has a 2.60 ERA over his last five starts, and held the Yankees to four runs on seven hits over seven innings on Thursday.

The biggest difference between Wolf in 2011 and 2010 would appear to be his control. He walked 3.63 batters per nine last season, and is giving free passes to 2.82 batters per nine in 2011. He's walked three batters in each of his last two starts, but has also pitched seven innings in four straight appearances.

Wolf faced the Diamondbacks twice last season, and allowed seven combined runs on 13 hits and six walks over 12 innings, striking out 13. Six Diamondbacks have faced him ten times or more:

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chris Young	26	.286	.400	.524	.924
Justin Upton	17	.214	.353	.500	.853
Stephen Drew	14	.167	.214	.583	.797
Xavier Nady	14	.154	.214	.385	.599
Henry Blanco	13	.364	.333	.545	.879
Wily Mo Pena	10	.200	.200	.200	.400

He'll face former Pirate Zach Duke (5.92 ERA, 3.08 FIP), who is making his eighth start as a member of the Diamondbacks. As his ERA/FIP would suggest, Duke has given up a lot of hits this season but there's reason to believe he's been largely unlucky: Opposing batters are hitting .397 on balls in play against him. He was the loser last time out against the Indians, allowing four runs on nine hits over just five innings.

Duke's mix of pitches probably isn't entirely reliable this season because of sample size, but he has a high-80's fastball, a changeup he'll throw a fair amount, and a slider and curve. All four pitches have been below average this season, but the changeup and curve have been above average for his career.

Duke faced the Brewers four times as a member of the Pirates in 2010, and posted an 8.85 ERA over 20.1 innings. Six Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Prince Fielder	42	.333	.429	.639	1.068
Rickie Weeks	42	.270	.357	.459	.817
Corey Hart	31	.250	.387	.458	.845
Ryan Braun	22	.368	.455	.684	1.139
Casey McGehee	14	.091	.214	.091	.305
Carlos Gomez	13	.333	.385	.417	.801

Brewers lineup

Weeks 2B
Gomez CF
Hart RF
Fielder 1B
Betancourt SS
McGehee 3B
Wilson LF
Kottaras C
Wolf P

And in the bullpen:

John Axford pitched one inning (22 pitches) yesterday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched one inning (18 pitches) yesterday.
Marco Estrada pitched .1 innings (10 pitches) yesterday.
Kameron Loe pitched .2 innings (9 pitches) yesterday.
Zach Braddock pitched .2 innings (22 pitches) Sunday.
Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since Saturday.

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Still a chance Braun could play today.

Tweet from Chuck Freimund of 1250 WSSP:

ryan braun taking bp.. if he checks out ok..will start in lf..otherwise its josh wilson for #brewers

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jul 5, 2011 5:09 PM CDT reply actions

Hope that this happens

Otherwise we are relying on the top 4 to provide any runs.

by Saltire on Jul 5, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions

McCalvy just tweeted that Braun is still a no-go for tonight.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jul 5, 2011 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Yuni-Casey-Wilson?

Woo hoo! Let the good times roll…

Where are the trolls when you actually want them?

by SAE on Jul 5, 2011 5:09 PM CDT reply actions

Shoehorning the righty bats in

even if it means Josh Wilson plays left field.

Adventuretime.

Or ^^ that.

by Archibaldcrane on Jul 5, 2011 5:09 PM CDT reply actions

Looking at the status of the bullpen

Either Wolf needs a 7-9 inning outing, or a pitcher will have to be called up for tomorrow’s game.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jul 5, 2011 5:12 PM CDT reply actions

Looking at the bullpen status

Makes me wonder was it really only 9 pitches that Loe threw yesterday. It felt like alot more.

by Saltire on Jul 5, 2011 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions

It really did feel like a lot more.

I was at the game and it was just torture to watch. He was lucky to get two outs, those outs weren’t a result of his pitching.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jul 5, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Hopefully

we just go Wolf-Saito-Axford for the win.

by Archibaldcrane on Jul 5, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Wilson in LF is a sick joke.

All is vanity.

by levnclf on Jul 5, 2011 6:03 PM CDT reply actions

Yuni in LF is a sick joke.

Wilson in LF is just unexpected.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jul 5, 2011 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Apparently

Having a righty batter in the lineup to face a lefty supersedes RR’s love for Kotsay.

In other words, in RR’s mind…

Wilson > Kotsay > Morgan against Duke.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Jul 5, 2011 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Looking at Duke's numbers

I realized I truly hate FIP, and calling pitchers lucky/unlucky. Because Duke has always been bad and I will accept no rationale to tell me he shouldn’t be. I don’t care how stubborn and silly I am.

by Taterwithbacon on Jul 5, 2011 6:12 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

I hate Duke so much

I wish that Butler’s half court shot would have went in last year. Oh, we are talking about Zach.

Celebrating the addition of Greinke and mourning the loss of my man crush Cain

by molitorfan on Jul 5, 2011 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions

by -JP- on Jul 5, 2011 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions

"Aas" is a word?

All is vanity.

by levnclf on Jul 5, 2011 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions

It will be.

Apple has that kind of power.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jul 5, 2011 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11