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Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while making a bad investment.

The Brewers picked up their sixth straight win yesterday but got a little help from Astros manager Brad Mills, who decided to pitch to Prince Fielder with the game tied, Ryan Braun on second and first base open in the eighth inning. Fielder singled on a 3-1 pitch and Braun scored the eventual game-winning run. Moments like that are why I'm having a hard time getting too excited about the current 6-0 homestand: It's nice that the team is winning, but it feels like this week's wins had more to do with the level of competition than the Brewers' level of play.

Jerry Hairston Jr. made his Brewer debut yesterday, popping out as a pinch hitter in the seventh inning. Hairston was acquired from the Nationals on Saturday in exchange for outfielder Erik Komatsu, the Brewers' reigning Minor League Player of the Year (FanShot). Hairston was hitting .268/.342/.385 in 2011 with the Nationals, and had already played two outfield and three infield spots. He's on a one year deal and projects to fall outside the cutoff for Type B free agency this fall. Adam McCalvy says he'll play all over the infield, make occasional starts in center and potentially start at second base.

Meanwhile, here's what people are saying about Komatsu:

Brett Carroll, by the way, was designated for assignment to make room for Hairston on the roster (FanShot).

Even with Hairston available, Ron Roenicke decided to start Craig Counsell at third base yesterday. He went 0-for-3 to extend his hitless streak to 44 at bats. It had been previously reported that Doug Davis held the franchise record with an 0-for-42 streak, but that streak was actually 0-for-49 and stretched over two seasons. Roenicke said he still wants Counsell around for his defense.

Other notes from the field:

The homestand continues tonight as the Brewers and Cardinals open a three game set with first place in the NL Central on the line. Adam McCalvy has a preview of the series, while Adam Holt of MLB.com has a preview of tonight's game. Greg Schimmel of The Washington Post says tonight's matchup is the game of the day. The Prognostikeggers thread for the series is here, if you're ready to make your predictions.

Francisco Rodriguez picked up his second win as a Brewer yesterday, although it came following his second blown save. David Waldstein of the New York Times has more insight into K-Rod's decision to waive his 2012 vesting option: He reportedly told the Mets he'd be willing to get rid of it before being dealt. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy)

Meanwhile, John Axford pitched a perfect ninth yesterday and picked up his 31st save. Kenn Hoekstra of Pocket Doppler noted that Axford could break the Brewers' single season record of 44, set by Francisco Cordero in 2007. Steve Berthiaume of ESPN makes a case for Axford as baseball's best closer.

Axford also took second in this week's Brewer of the Week voting. Ryan Braun won for the fourth time with 42% of the vote.

The Brewers made a couple of moves to improve the team this weekend, but was it enough? Call to the Pen is listing them among the trade deadline winners.

Yuniesky Betancourt went 1-for-4 in each of the three games in the Astros series, and is now hitting .299/.315/.437 in July. Nonetheless, he's a candidate to be assigned the nickname of "$45 Couch" at NotGraphs. Go over and cast your vote.

Casey McGehee got the day off yesterday. He's hitting .333/.368/.600 on the homestand, but that's still only enough to bring his season line up to .230/.282/.320. At Disciples of Uecker, Toby Harrmann has a look at the volume of leeway the Brewers have given him and their continued decision not to call up Taylor Green.

In the minors:

Tuesday is typically power ranking day, but Craig Calcaterra is ahead of the curve: He has the Brewers seventh, up six spots.

This might be the largest "Around Baseball" section I've ever written:

Athletics: Placed pitcher Michael Wuertz on the DL with a thumb injury.
Braves: Acquired outfielder Michael Bourn from the Astros for outfielder Jordan Schafer and three minor leaguers, placed outfielder Nate McLouth on the DL with a lower abdominal strain, and designated infielder Diory Hernandez for assignment.
Cardinals: Acquired shortstop Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers for a minor leaguer (FanShot) and placed infielder Nick Punto on the DL with an oblique strain.
Diamondbacks: Acquired pitcher Jason Marquis from the Nationals for a minor leaguer and acquired reliever Brad Ziegler from the A's for first baseman Brandon Allen and a minor league pitcher.
Dodgers: Placed infielder Juan Uribe (groin strain) and pitcher Kenley Jansen (irregular heartbeat) on the DL.
Giants: Acquired infielder Orlando Cabrera from the Indians for a minor league outfielder.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies for four minor leaguers and designated pitcher Mitch Talbot for assignment.
Mariners: Designated DH Jack Cust for assignment.
Nationals: Placed pitcher Yuniesky Maya on the DL with an oblique strain.
Phillies: Acquired outfielder Hunter Pence from the Astros for three minor leaguers and a PTBNL.
Pirates: Acquired first baseman Derrek Lee from the Orioles and outfielder Ryan Ludwick from the Orioles and Padres for a minor leaguer and a PTBNL, respectively, designated pitcher Mike Crotta for assignment and placed reliever Chris LeRoux on the DL with a calf strain.
Rangers: Acquired reliever Mike Adams from the Padres for two minor league pitchers and acquired pitcher Koji Uehara from the Orioles for infielder/outfielder Chris Davis and pitcher Tommy Hunter.
Red Sox: Acquired pitchers Erik Bedard and Josh Fields from the Mariners as part of a three team deal that sent two minor leaguers to Seattle and three to the Dodgers and acquired infielder Mike Aviles from the Royals for two minor leaguers.
Tigers: Acquired pitchers Doug Fister and David Pauley from the Mariners for outfielder Casper Wells, pitcher Charlie Furbush and a minor leaguer.

For more on the deals taking place in the division yesterday, check out today's edition of Around the NL Central. For a full roundup of players changing teams this month, take a look at Satchel Price of MLB Daily Dish's final tally.

The non-waiver trade deadline passed at 3 pm yesterday, but teams can still work out deals involving players who clear waivers during the month of August. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of players that could still be moved.

The trade deadline is a stressful time to be a major league executive, even when you're healthy. I can only imagine what it was like for Rays GM Andrew Friedman, who underwent an emergency appendectomy on Saturday. Thankfully, he appears to be ok.

I'm still pretty firmly attached to the Brewers, but if something were to happen to them I think I know which team I'd start rooting for: The Rangers are involved in a pretty impressive effort to stop the wave.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to start a business.

Drink up.

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Am I wrong here?
@NoahJarosh Yeah, we should ignore Casey’s .295 average over last two weeks and better at-bats. Dump him.

TH, of course, saying that Casey McGehee is hitting much better now than he was before. Well, since 7/17 Casey is hitting .302, which is much nicer than his .221 season average before that. But in my opinion if he’s got a .394 BAbip over that span shouldn’t he be putting up a better OPS than .722? I say he hasn’t changed anything other than his luck.

by nullacct on Aug 1, 2011 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

And outside of the Giants

it’s not like we’ve been facing elite pitching or anything.

by placidity on Aug 1, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Although, his BABIP for the first part of the season was ridiculously low. If the argument was that the low BABIP was because he’s a terrible hitter, then the fact that he could put up such a high BABIP for a sustained period of time could be a promising sign.

But yeah, even BABIP-adjusted he’s been really bad.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

he's gotten a little lucky in key moments

but come on, look at him. He’s been making better swings on the high fastballs that he usually hits well and has been whiffing this season. The stats are great for analyzing someone you don’t watch on a daily basis or for confirming something over a long span of time. Talking about having a slightly high babip over a two week span says absolutely nothing.

Casey’s issue, it’s pretty easy to see, is something with his mechanics or timing. For most of the season he’s been swinging through all the meatballs thrown his way. If it looks like he’s fixing it, which it does, I’ll take his future production over the guy who’s hitting well in the minors this season.

Basically, to call up Green and hand him the starting job in the middle of a pennant race, you’d better be damned sure he’s gonna hit well; otherwise you’d need Casey to bail you out after you mess with his confidence.

I really don’t care what Casey’s stats are over the season. There’s nothing he can do to fix them at this point. Right now, I just want to see if he can become valuable by season’s end. Green can be brought up for spot starts and pinch-hitting when rosters expand, but he shouldn’t get called up before then.

by Mr. Saturn on Aug 1, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've watched Casey all year

Friday was the first time in a while that I’ve remembered him driving a ball. He’s not hitting HRs and rarely driving the ball towards the wall. He’s become a singles hitter who will occasionally have a ball find a hole (like his 3B against the Cubs).

We’ve all been looking for it for a while, but it hasn’t been happening. Since May 21st he has 1 HR (hitting .202/.246/.255 during that time) Whether its Green, Hairston or anyone – they need to explore different ways to get more production out of the 3B part of the lineup. RR starting Craig Counsell at 3B on Sunday shows even the team is running out of patience with him.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I see the Counsell start as more seeing if he can get some hits to be able to justify keeping him when Weeks gets back; hoping some more at bats against a crappy team can get him going.

As for Casey, he’s definitely not hot right now nor has he been all season, but he hasn’t been as helpless as he’s been all season. That gives me hope that he’s improving. I think this does make the Hairston acquisition a good one. Under the pretense of being an outfielder, he’s really there to replace either Yuni or McGehee when the going gets tough.

by Mr. Saturn on Aug 1, 2011 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Is it too late to put that accomplishment on his bobble-head?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wait till the WS to engrave your bobblehead

“50 game hitless streak”
“4 World Series walkoff hits”

by uwbadgers on Aug 1, 2011 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's a scary thought.

Wouldn’t like to see Craig put in that scenario these days.

For your health!

by menchkins on Aug 1, 2011 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Does Steve Berthiaume write about the NL Central or the Brewers often?

The article on Axford was truly insightful and I don’t expect that out of a general baseball writer.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 1, 2011 11:57 AM CDT reply actions  

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2011/8/1/2309148/mondays-frosty-mug#

I only know the name of Berthiaume because of his awesome NL Central prediction at the beginning of the year

He might want that one back though I admire the boldness.

by grant76 on Aug 1, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kyle left this link out of the Mug

Or maybe he’s just waiting for a FanShot. Oh ye of much faith, KL. twitter

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 1, 2011 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I disagree Kyle there are a lot of reasons to be ecstatic over the 6-0 stretch

fating up on the bottom feeders is what good teams do(I love calling the cubs bottom feeders) and for once this Brewers team is acting like a good team. In the past the Brewers would have dropped 2 to 3 games over the 6 while looking ahead to the Red Birds coming into town.

Yes they beat bad teams but wins still count :)

"It's a joke. It's all a joke.

by WSB Chris on Aug 1, 2011 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Even still you'd expect a 4-2 run, which is awesome

Would love to rack up as many “cheap wins” as possible as long as Rickie’s out!

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on Aug 1, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

what i mean is, which is why 6-0 is still awesome

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on Aug 1, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bingo.

When you can trot out mediocre lineups, play so-so ball, and still be so much more talented than the other teams that you string together two sweeps in a row, that’s an unequivocally good thing.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 1, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, 4.5 up

Pirates hosting Cubs. But the Cards in 3rd would be nice.

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

True

My best case is the Cards in 3rd though

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Waaaahhhh
"Two out of three from the Cubs is nothing to sneeze at," said Lance Berkman, who drove in all three runs with his NL-leading 28th homer. "I think if you want to poo-poo the homestand, one of those games against the Astros we should have won, and it would have been three out of four."

Lowered expectations?

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 12:17 PM CDT reply actions  

nit-picking

Meanwhile, here’s what people are saying about Komatsu:

…•Ben Badler and Matt Eddy of Baseball America say “the Nationals did well to turn Hairston into a player with some on-base skills who will almost certainly be a big leaguer in some capacity, though his ultimate role might be as a solid backup.”

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 1, 2011 12:19 PM CDT reply actions  

This is kind of annoying ot me.

Doesn’t it seem like the instant a prospect leaves the Brewers system he suddenly “will almost certainly be a big leaguer in some capacity”? I definitely don’t remember hearing that opinion of Komatsu before. Most people said he couldn’t play CF and couldn’t hit enough to play LF/RF.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

They've been pretty consistent with him

He’s been a 4th OF type for a while, found this from BP.com’s last Brewers top 11: OF: Komatsu is another potential bench outfielder thanks to his approach, speed, and left-handedness

That was before the year, I think he’d shown enough this summer to bump up a little bit in most people’s minds.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thank you Kyle

“It’s nice that the team is winning, but it feels like this week’s wins had more to do with the level of competition than the Brewers’ level of play.”

If I had said this I would have been reviled.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 12:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm not sure it would have mattered what you said :)

Am I not seeing it, or isn’t there much being made of the Cards losing 3 games at home to the same teams?

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Reverse of that

How about the fact that the Brewers have 3 wins to the upside against their Pythagorean W-L versus the Reds 5 losses, or that the Reds swept a good Giants team?

I dont think the Cards are the team to be afraid of in this pennant race, its the Reds as bad as they may have been so far.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you realize how good the Reds will have to be to catch up at this point?

Assuming the Brewers don’t collapse.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Still don't think they have pitching

Their front office sitting on their hands at the deadline seems to suggest they view 2012 as a better chance than 2011

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rest of the season

If the Brewers go 0.5 games over .500 at 27-26, the Reds will need a .648 W%. If the Brewers continue with their current W% and go 29-24, the Reds will need a .685 W%.

Maybe if they sweep the Brewers from here on out or something they might have a shot.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's not just that, though.

They’d also have to outperform the Cardinals and Pirates.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Granted, its a long shot

But if the Brewers play the way I expected them to (as an 88 win team) they will finish with 88 wins (.523 % from here on out), and the Reds given the same expectations….84 wins. So they would need to recapture some of those lost Pythagorean games and play with what they are capable of.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Capability vs. Actuality

After all, that’s why they play the games. If records could just be churned out on a computer there’s no need for players, stadiums and all that go along with it. I like being a stat-head every now and again (mostly for work), but SOME things get lost in the numbers. Stats are driven on EXPECTATIONS. Expectations change when more data is available.

"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up." ~Bob Uecker

by ASerd87 on Aug 1, 2011 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Expectations change when more data is available"

Thank you Mr. Bayes.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

R^2

Has a different meaning to me.

"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up." ~Bob Uecker

by ASerd87 on Aug 1, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm surprised you bring up the Giants/Reds series

Reds missed Lincecum and Cain while getting to tee-off on Zito yesterday. Would think you’d want to note that.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I dont like the Pythagorean W-L

Baseball has too many variables to predict W-L just off runs scored and runs allowed. I can also determine a teams expected W-L by looking at whether or not a team should have won or lost a game.

What I mean is by looking at a box score you can tell whether or not a team should have won that game. My criteria would be if a team has at least a 4 run lead, or if a team has a lead in the 7th inning or later. Of course a team is not going to win every game where they meet one of these criteria, but they also won’t lose every game either.

Using this criteria, the Brewers are two games over what they should be and the Reds are three games over. The Cards, however, are exactly where they should be and the Pirates are two games under. I don’t think this really says anything, other than that you can use any specific stat to try and make your case, but at the end of the day the only thing that counts is actual wins and loses and right now the Brewers have more than anyone else in the Central.

by Bezerkers on Aug 1, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

There are.

According to second-order W-L, which takes hits/walks/etc. and determines how many runs you should have scored, the Brewers should have .524 Win% – 57-52. That’s basically a game behind the Reds and two behind the Cards.

According to third-order W-L, which takes second-order W-L and adjusts for strength of schedule, the Brewers should have a .522 Win% – 57-52 again. That’s a game behind both the Reds and Cards, and 13(!) games in front of the Pirates.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 1, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

I like the idea of the second-order

but I think it would be better served to use actual game situations to make the calculation, i.e. a runner on 3rd with less than two outs where a team doesn’t score but it should have. Of course this would involve looking at the actual plays of the game instead of the overall stats, but I think it would be interesting to see how many games that there should’ve been a different outcome.

by Bezerkers on Aug 1, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Take a look at the Angels' pythag numbers over the past decade

Year after year, they almost invariably over-performed their predicted W-L record, often by several games. It caused much consternation amongst fans of other AL West teams.

In the years they had their best “overperformance” numbers, it was usually with a lockdown closer (mostly K-Rod) and good bullpen help in the setup role (Scot Shields, primarily). They won a lot of close games by getting a lead and then squelching the opponents’ offense. On the other hand, they’d get blown out on occasion and give junk-time innings to the weaker bullpen members, which skewed their runs allowed numbers. The point is that bullpen management and game management may negate some of the Pythagorean predictive value. Is it surprising that RRR would follow in Scioscia’s footsteps….?

by Brew Angel on Aug 1, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

That doesn't matter, because they're the Cardinals.

It’s only appropriate to take level of competition into consideration if it make the Brewers look bad.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

The pitching the Brewers had this past week would have beaten most teams.

Why do people assume bad teams = automatic wins? That’s not baseball.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying 6-0 should have been assumed.

I’m just saying that some of the games in this homestand were practically gift-wrapped by the opposition. Here’s a better look:

Tuesday: Cubs get ten hits but only score twice, Brewers win 3-2.
Wednesday: Good pitching allows the Brewers to win despite only scoring two runs.
Thursday: Brewers commit three (should have been four) errors, but Cubs only score twice.
Friday and Saturday’s games were both well pitched, but the Brewers scored a combined four earned runs against two bad starting pitchers over 11 innings.
Sunday: Game was tied when the Astros made an inexplicable decision to pitch to Fielder with a guy who’s spent most of the season in AAA on deck.

Wins are wins and I understand they all count, but do you really think the Brewers would have won more than 3 or 4 of these games against a good team?

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

And Rickie Weeks for all 3 games...

… but wait, that contradicts your assumptions and conclusions, and thus must be ignored.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Good response

Wasnt considering Weeks being out.

Like Kyle mentions below though, I wouldnt be horribly excited about 4 1 run games, where the opposition made a ton of mistakes, and the opposition as a whole is the worst the NL has to offer.

We’ll see what happens on the road and against some better competition.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think both you and Kyle are making more of the positive reaction the rest of us have had tot he last 6 days than is really there.

We’re missing a huge part of our lineup right now, and that injury gives the rest of the division an advantage over the next couple of months. In order to counter-act that advantage, the Brewers have to get every win they can against inferior opponents and hope they can get back to full strength before the end of the year. They did that this week and extended their division lead without one of their best players. That’s why I’m happy about 6-0 against the Cubs and the Astros.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

At the simplest level

I’m happy because we won 6 games in a row. I don’t think anyone is claiming that these six wins prove that we are a great side and hopefully everyone who saw the games could see we weren’t exactly obliterating the Cubs or Astros. Sure, if we’d played a decent side it might have only been 3 or 4 wins but that wouldn’t have been too disgraceful either…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 1, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Remove the stone of shame...and attach the stone of triumph!

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

How does...

… “good pitching allows the Brewers to win” and “Cubs only score twice”, and “well pitched” the same thing as gift wrapped wins?

Look at your list. In order to accept your conclusion you have to believe that our good pitching was really the result of the opponents bad offense, and our bad offense wasn’t due to good pitching opponents. You’re looking for things to be worried about and you’re assuming the worst in virtually every one of your examples.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Why would I look for things to be worried about?

I just don’t think that this homestand was as much of a success as a 6-0 homestand would typically be considered. I think the schedule presented them an opportunity to play some below-average baseball and win, and that’s what they did.

There’s nothing wrong with that. I’m just not as excited about it as some of you.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the truth is probably somewhere in between both of your positions.

Good teams beat up on bad teams. These were some bad teams playing bad baseball, the Brewers took advantage and beat up on them. The Cardinals couldn’t do that. Even the worst teams win a third of the time; a six-game winning streak is always cause for celebration, no matter who it’s against.

But does the kind of ball the Brewers have played this week make me feel optimistic about the Cardinals series? Not particularly. Kyle’s right that if the Brewers play like they did this week, they’ll have a lot of trouble winning series against playoff contenders. But who knows whether they’ll keep playing at that mediocre level?

The season is a grind, though, and even the best team will have some weeks when they play lackluster ball. The Brewers did that this week and won six games anyway. I’m enjoying that fact now, even if it doesn’t fill me with encouragement going forward.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 1, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

The truth IS both of their positions

Kyle and BtC are judging the quality of wins. Many of us, TSSC included, are looking at the fact that they’re wins, regardless of the quality.

Kind of like how power rankings don’t have to take into account current standings. A bad team on an improbable 9-game winning streak could be 43-60 on the season, but a Power Ranking could have them in the middle of the league since they’re playing really well right now.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 1, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, those Astros
Even the worst teams win a third of the time

35 73 .324

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

The Brewers allowed 10 runs all week.

Holy crap!

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 1, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's impossible to say.

Just because they didn’t win every game against the Astros 25-0 doesn’t mean they aren’t locked in right now. It’s hard to sweep any team, two in a row is great. Sometimes part of being locked in and playing great baseball is capitalizing on other teams’ mistakes and winning in spite of your own team’s flaws.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

You are trying too hard to find a negative.

If they sweep the Cards and are lucky in the series will you discount it in the same way?

by Zorakathura on Aug 1, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I still have no idea why I hate this team.

I don’t even realize I hate this team until people stop by to tell me so.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Let me expand on that.

Where did you get that from my response?

by Zorakathura on Aug 1, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your accusation that I'm "trying too hard to find a negative."

My opinion is different from yours. Are you operating under the assumption that I’m for some reason trying to disagree with you?

I have an opinion on the way this team is playing. You have an opinion. They’re not the same. And that’s not really a problem. I just get frustrated when our disagreement leads to me being accused of things like “looking for things to be worried about” and “trying too hard to find a negative.”

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Some people on this site try too hard to find a positive also.

Your analysis was in my opinion trying too hard to find a negative. At no point did I say you always do this, or that you hate the team, I also haven’t made other comments about you “looking for things to be worried about”, at least not that I remember. Don’t take out your frustrations on me for expressing my opinion.

by Zorakathura on Aug 1, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

"Some people on this site try too hard to find a positive also."

It’s true. I’m constantly pulling flowers out of my ass lately. I’ll admit that. Part of the reason for that is because I think the negative gets too much play, particularly in the mug threads (which I usually read, but don’t usually participate in an effort to avoid being the contentious dick I’m being today.)

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree with you

If anything I’m guilty of it myself for the reasons you describe. The whole site seems very negative this year.

by Zorakathura on Aug 1, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

You were the third of three comments in a row with a similar opinion.

I didn’t intend you single you out – it just would’ve been a redundant waste for me to post identical replies to each of you.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

First time I've seen the word "hate" turn up in any comment on this thread.

(I did a word search just to make sure I was right on that.)

Nobody said it, nobody thinks it.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

What I'm excited about

Is that we now are at 11 games over .500 for the first time this year and built ourselves a 2.5 game lead going into the Cardinals series without Rickie Weeks. Even if we collapse and get swept at home, we’re only .5 out.

What I’m worried about: Our run differential on the season: +5. Cardinals: +51. Can anyone make me feel better about that?

by Cervercero on Aug 1, 2011 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Try phrasing it like this:

“Our run differential on the season: +5. Cardinals: +51.”

BUT “we now are at 11 games over .500 for the first time this year and built ourselves a 2.5 game lead going into the Cardinals series without Rickie Weeks. Even if we collapse and get swept at home, we’re only .5 out.”

by placidity on Aug 1, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, to play off last year

If you throw out our 4 worst blow outs, our RD is +42

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Aug 1, 2011 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

How about this?

Brewers record in 1-run games: 24-14
Cardinals record in 1-run games: 14-17

by Bezerkers on Aug 1, 2011 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

And they've had really awful stretches where they couldn't win to save their lives.

The universe balances it out, and hopefully they end up making the playoffs with the team as healthy as possible.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

hmm
Giants: Acquired infielder Orlando Cabrera from the Giants for a minor league outfielder.

Did the New York Football Giants just pick him up? And if so why did they have a minor league outfielder to give?!

BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ

by Jeo on Aug 1, 2011 12:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Fixed

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 1, 2011 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not to take anything away from Komatsu, who I like, but to put a "Brewers Player of the ______" Award into context:

Yuniesky Betancourt was just named the Brewers Player of the Month for July.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 12:35 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

2nd half:

.922 OPS, 13 of his 40 RBI.

by Bertwerst on Aug 1, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't really think this is unique to the Brewers though

Unless you’re the Phillies, Red Soz, or Rangers, every team has something to complain about

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on Aug 1, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Correction

Unless you’re the Phillies, Red Soz, or Rangers, every team has something to complain about

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 1, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

i live in philadelphia

and they complain non-stop. they pretty much assume they’ll never score another run again.

by Capt Science on Aug 1, 2011 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Preach it brother

There’s entirely too much doomsaying from commenters on this site lately. I’d swear we were happier complaining about Jeff Suppan then we are now with a great rotation and sitting on top of the division. Yes, the team has its shortcomings, but when you win, you win, and that’s always a good thing. I don’t need to win 10-0, I just want to win more games than the other guys, and if comes as a combination of high BAbip, catching opponents on a bad day, luck, and grit, I’ll take it.

by nullacct on Aug 1, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

This site would get mighty boring

if we spent all day every day talking about how awesome the Brewers are.

Hell, it’d sound like an FS-Wisconsin broadcast.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Aug 1, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

That Braun face never gets old

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."

by GoGregGo on Aug 1, 2011 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Which is odd

because I’ve got a picture of him in my house which seems to have been aging gradually…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 1, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

If anyone is looking for a way out of their misery

it might be good to read Jonah Keri ripping the Cubs on their non-existent deadline trades.

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 1, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually Al Yellon on the other BCB site

had a article up a couple of days ago basically begging for the Cubs front office to blow up the team and start again.
He was also fretting about whether he would ever see the Cubs win a World Series in his lifetime.
It brings home the thought that we should enjoy this season and even though we are not the best team according to the numbers that is not what ultimately matters. It is about winning and this team does seem to have alot of good chemistry and is enjoying playing together (I know stat guys might not like that part, mainly because you cannot quantify how much that help a team) and that sometimes may help overcome some of the short falls and who knows it might result in a World Series.
So whilst this site gives alot of interesting and valid statistical measures of where the team is doing well or not so well and helps people like myself understand better why somebody is pitching better or have a more informed idea of how much better Green would be than McGehee for example lets also try and enjoy the winning while it lasts.

by Saltire on Aug 1, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Its not quite that level

Yeah its a fan site, but its also a fan site that is driven by discussion, dissent, and advanced statistical measurements.

Teams like the Red Sox, for example, fill their FO with people who disagree with each other, so that they can come to team/group decisions better. If they have a thought that everyone agrees with wholeheartedly, its either a clear consensus, or a reason to stay away from that decision.

The Brewers are winning, even I had predicted that this team would be an 88 game winner. But when you add things all up, and take a look at how some of those wins have been arrived at, and how this past weekend went against really bad teams making bad mistakes, you can correctly come to the conclusion that this team isnt playing like a world beater right now despite the 6-0 run.

It’s all about titles. And this past weeks’ performance doesnt necessarily bode well for a playoff series. There are two whole months to go still, and I think the Brewers now have the best shot to win the division, but there are things that need to be improved before I would expect them to be successful in a playoff series.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

You're right

and I think that one of the good things about this site is the fact there generally is not much “group think” and that there are people (such as yourself) with contrary views who are happy to rationally argue them.

However, I think the problem is that there isn’t really anyone out there who is arguing that the Crew are playing like “a world beater” at the moment. Moreover, I’m pretty sure that most people are aware that sweeping the Astros and the Cubs isn’t the same as beating stronger teams. Yeah, we’d probably need to play better to win a playoff series too, but I don’t think anyone is disagreeing.

What there has been has been quite a few people being happy that we went 6-0 and I think that’s absolutely fair enough. I’d rather we looked shoddy and undeserving of the playoffs and fluked our way into them that played sound baseball and missed out on them.

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 1, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

the Red Sox win because they have a progressive thinking FO

the money helps, but that is the cop out answer to say they win because of their money situation. It doesnt work for all teams that have money, so saying its the reason the Sox win is incorrect.

Theo Epstein wants to build the orgainzation with scouting and player development, and supplement holes with FA just like any other organization.

And he surrounds himself with dissenters who happen to be smart pepole, so that they can come to good conslusions with debate on both sides of issues.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Companion example

The Cubs throw all kinds of money away every season but never win anything.

by mpbMKE on Aug 1, 2011 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lots of teams can spend big in the draft and big on contract extensions/FA

Oh wait, never-mind…Theo surrounds himself with smart people. Forgot.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Another crummy argument

Look at who the biggest spenders have been in the past 3 drafts.

The Brewers choose not to do that, and the value of the farm is showing that now. Has nothing to do with market size or revenues. The Brewers prefer the short term rewards of a free agent to the long term ones of building a successful farm system with top tier talent.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, no. They've been spending money on their own players!

Except they can’t afford all of them, anyway, unlike the Red Sox.

by Noah Jarosh on Aug 1, 2011 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

By my count

3 current position players (Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury) and 1 pitcher (Lester) are starters.

I get your overall point, but you have to stop using the Red Sox as an example.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Eh, that's not entirely fair

I momentarily forgot about Trevor Hoffman and Latroy Hawkins, which were really bad free agent signings.

My point is, the Brewers have chosen to spend their money not on free agents, but on their own cost-controlled players. But when all of them perform as well as they have, they start to get pretty costly in arbitration. So the problem is actually that the Brewers’ young talent is too good, and the Brewers (gasp!) want to hang onto them.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 1, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

But you do feel the need to remind us.

Hey, you remember that time you got hit in the balls?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I said within the past three years

Specifically so as to exclude them. (Fun with selective samples.) It’s been a while since those signings were made.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 1, 2011 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Biggest spenders in the draft are usually bad teams, right?

Pirates, Blue Jays and Royals have been the biggest spenders in recent drafts.

Being able to spend big in drafts AND big on FA market is unique to the Red Sox and Yankees for the most part.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

It's not just about total money spent in the draft.

Having a budget like the Red Sox allows them to spend way overslot on risky players (like Renaudo). A team like the Brewers needs players to hit and make it to the major leagues.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

If the Brewers had Cubs money

Hall and Suppan would be here until 2012. I agree that it’s better to have money than not have money, but give an incompetent GM $150 million and all you get is an incompetent GM that spends $150 million.

Epstein took his risks with advanced metrics like bullpen by committee and last year’s Defense Only team which both flopped. Since then, he’s gone with the more traditional method of locking in great players with a lot of money and that has shown a lot of success.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 1, 2011 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right, they can get away with mistakes

Like the Cameron, Dice-K and Lackey. Anyone of those signings would have significantly hurt the Brewers, where it doesn’t affect the Sox at all

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Every single game the Red Sox and Phillies win, they win 30-0. They're usually perfect games too.

…oh wait, no, winning close games is part of playing good baseball.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I thought about this when reading the mug today.

What if we won the World Series on an error by Dustin Pedroia?

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 1, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

I keep thinking (and laughing) about SRB's comment from a couple of months back...

… where he said that Gomez could hit an inside the park homerun and people here would complain about it because he ran too fast. Pretty sure I was (one of) the targets of that snark.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

i think a lot of it is this "now or never" feeling that's creeping up

with only a handful of decent prospects, Prince leaving in 2012, and Grienke and Marcum leaving the year after, I can’t help but think this is the best the team will be for quite a while.

"I don't even know who Bryce Harper is — hah, hah, hah, hah, hah!" -Nyjer Morgan

by JAMOOL on Aug 1, 2011 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know that's a popular opinion...

… but it doesn’t have to be that way. I think it’s fairly safe to assume, for instance, that we’ll get better production at 3B next year, and possibly SS too. The 1B offensive production will almost certainly go down in 2012, but the defensive production might actually improve, and if we get more WAR from 3B and 2B (which seems like a reasonable possibility), the 2012 Brewers could be as good as the 2011 edition.

But I get you’re point, and I think you’re probably right that it plays a role in the nature of the conversations that occur here.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

What do we think Schafer's role will be with the team next year?

I gotta think he’ll be a 4th outfielder. But what if GamGam gets traded, and Hart is moved to 1st? Is it possible that Schafer is actually a starter?

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 1, 2011 2:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Assuming they keep Plush

That means Schafer is a corner OF? He’s got 8 HR in 1000+ MiLB ABs. Seems like a 4th OF. He might have a hard time next year if RR is still the manager and hesitant to go with a guy based on minor league success.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree

I think he’s a 4th OF. Doesnt really have the toolset to be a full time player, for a first division team.

by backtocali on Aug 1, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

If Gamel's traded, I'm guessing it will be for a piece that will be in the lineup next year.

Most likely 1B/RF, since nobody is going to trade a shortstop for Gamel.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think he'll be traded at all at this point, but who else would it be for?

Gamel for prospects seems unlikely.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Could see a bullpen arm

Change of scenery type thing – sort of like Chris Davis going from Texas to the O’s.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 1, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would be surprised if Gamel is traded in the off season

I think that due all pay rises that are due next year he is likely to be the starting 1B.

by Saltire on Aug 1, 2011 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yuni B

is currently just behind Matt Stairs for the title of $45 Couch.

Oh, sorry, um… Argue argue argue argue. (Just trying to fit in.)

by mpbMKE on Aug 1, 2011 3:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Yuni is winning at moment...

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 1, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why is the internets upset at Aybar for bunting against Verlander?

That’s so silly. Bunting is part of the game.

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 3:42 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Reductio ad Albertum

Would His Holiness bunt in that situation? Of course not. And if Albert wouldn’t do it, it is clearly disrepectful to the game.

by CoreySLC on Aug 1, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Seeing the highlights of that game

I wonder if Aybar setting in the dugout, seeing Guillen showboat on the homerun said to himself “Oh it’s gonna be like they eh?” then laid down the bunt.

by philc78 on Aug 1, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

This is one of the stupid unwritten rules I can get behind

If the game isn’t close, then a player is bunting specifically to break up the no-hitter. It would be the same as a pitcher in the 9th inning with 2 outs intentionally walking someone like Fielder to get to someone like McGehee to have a 50% better chance at picking up a no-hitter.

If the game is close, then a guy that’s bunting is just trying to get on base to give his team a chance to score. At 3-0 in the 8th inning, that’s not “bush league” as Verlander called it (what a baby!). Hits can come in bunches against a starting pitcher that’s reaching the end of the game. There have been more than a few no-hitters through 7 inning that went awry in a hurry before the end of the game.

I’m seriously disappointed in Verlander for his quote after the game.

Verlander

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 1, 2011 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I see this video, and I'm pretty sure I recognized some BCB posters.

MrLeam, and Saltire, this is you two right?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Aug 1, 2011 4:35 PM CDT reply actions  

The Mongolian guy is actually backtocali

"PLUSH ALERT: THERE WAS AN UNTUCKING AT FENWAY!"

by SRB on Aug 1, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry for not replying earlier

Only just got back from my day’s entertainment standing on a deserted bridge playing bagpipes while speaking in a highly dubious Scottish accent. Not so sure about the video though…

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
"Now attribute that shit!" mpbMKE

by MrLeam on Aug 2, 2011 1:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

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