Tonight's Matchup: Brewers (Wolf) vs Dodgers (Lilly)

I forgot to take the sunscreen along to the Timber Rattlers game this afternoon, so I'll be nursing a sunburn while I'm watching this one tonight.

Hopefully the Brewers will get another solid performance tonight from Randy Wolf (3.48 ERA, 4.25 FIP) and make me feel a little better. Wolf has been excellent lately, posting a 2.83 ERA over his last six starts. He's only the 31st Brewer ever and the second since 2008 to pitch six innings in at least 12 consecutive starts (Shaun Marcum had a 13 start streak earlier this year). On Wednesday he beat the Cardinals, holding them to a run on just five hits over eight innings, walking none and striking out one.

Wolf needed just 92 pitches to record eight innings last time out. That's only the fourth time in his career he's averaged less than 12 pitches per inning in a start:

Date Opponent IP Pitches
August 10, 2011 Cardinals 8 92
August 11, 2002 Dodgers 6 70
May 9, 2002 Astros 7 77
September 26, 2001 Reds 9 107

Wolf faced the Dodgers once earlier this season and picked up the loss, allowing two runs on five hits and four walks in 5.1 innings. Only two Dodgers have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Juan Rivera 15 .357 .400 .643 1.043
Jamey Carroll 10 .000 .100 .000 .100

He'll face Ted Lilly (4.71 ERA, 4.64 FIP), proud owner of a contract the Dodgers would probably be willing to unload. Lilly is 35 years old, his ERA is the highest it's been since 2005, and he's due to make $22.5 million over the next two seasons. He was very good in his last start, holding the Phillies to two runs on six hits over eight innings. It was his longest start of the season, and the first time since May he'd gone over 100 pitches.

Lilly has an upper 80's fastball, but relies pretty heavily on a changeup (19.3% of all pitches) and slider (15.3%), plus an occasional curve. According to FanGraphs, his fastball has actually been his best pitch this season. At any rate, there's a good chance he'll be done early: He's pitched between four and five innings in more than a third of his 24 starts.

Lilly hasn't faced the Brewers yet this season but pitched against them three times in 2010, posting a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 innings. Seven Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Jerry Hairston Jr 33 .167 .242 .367 .609
Prince Fielder 30 .333 .367 .481 .848
Ryan Braun 26 .360 .385 .720 1.105
Corey Hart 24 .261 .292 .652 .944
Felipe Lopez 18 .235 .278 .588 .866
Casey McGehee 12 .500 .500 .917 1.417
Mark Kotsay 10 .444 .500 1.000 1.500

Tonight's lineup is as follows:

Corey Hart RF
Jerry Hairston Jr CF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Casey McGehee 3B
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Josh Wilson 2B
George Kottaras C
Randy Wolf P

And in the bullpen:

Takashi Saito pitched one inning (23 pitches) yesterday, and also pitched on Saturday.
John Axford pitched one inning (22 pitches) yesterday, and also pitched on Saturday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched .1 innings (one pitch) yesterday, and also pitched on Saturday.
Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (14 pitches) Saturday.
Kameron Loe last pitched on Friday.
Tim Dillard and Frankie de la Cruz last pitched on Thursday.

Now, don't forget to Prognostikeg!

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