A Wrapup For The Brewers' 2011 Draft
Now that the deadline has passed we're finally in a position to take one last look at the players the Brewers drafted and signed in the 2011 draft, and see how this year's strategies compare to those used over the previous two years. For more on the comparison to previous drafts, check out 2010 and 2009's posts.
It's worth noting, as always, that this post would be much more difficult to write if not for work done by the folks at Brewerfan.net, who have done a phenomenal job tracking down information and updating this post to keep it all in one place.
Follow the jump for the analysis.
Pitchers
Pitching was a clear priority in this draft (again), with 24 of the 51 picks and 18 of the 33 signees coming from the mound. That's actually down a bit from 28 and 19 in 2010, respectively. For the second straight year the Brewers put a high emphasis on college pitchers. While two of the Brewers' first seven signees were high school pitchers, they only selected four overall:
2 RHP Jorge Lopez
6 RHP Danny Keller
16 LHP Carlos Rodon
29 RHP David Lucroy
In 2009 and 2010 the team combined to draft 15 high school pitchers but signed just four, so maybe they got tired of wasting the picks.
Meanwhile, they drafted 17 pitchers from four year colleges and signed all but two of them:
1A RHP Taylor Jungmann
1B LHP Jed Bradley
3 RHP Drew Gagnon
7 RHP David Goforth
10 LHP Mike Strong
11 RHP Tommy Toledo
14 RHP Jacob Barnes
15 RHP Andy Moye
20 RHP Brandon Williamson
24 RHP Michael Palazzone
26 LHP Josh Smith
31 RHP Sean Albury
36 RHP Mitch Conner
37 RHP Casey Medlen
38 RHP Chad Pierce
39 LHP Elliot Glynn
48 LHP Mike Francisco
And, just like last year, they selected three pitchers from junior colleges and signed one:
27 RHP Chad Thompson
33 LHP Steven Okert
43 RHP Clint Wilson
For whatever it's worth, the Brewers drafted 17 right handed pitchers (signing 14) and seven lefties (signing 4)
Here's the quick version, with numbers from 2009 and 2010 for comparison:
| Year | # Drafted | % | # Signed | % | HS | Signed | 4 Yr | Signed | JUCO | Signed |
| 2011 | 24 | 47% | 18 | 75% | 4 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| 2010 | 28 | 56% | 19 | 68% | 8 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| 2009 | 25 | 47% | 14 | 56% | 7 | 1 | 18 | 13 | n/a* | n/a* |
Outfielders
The lower levels of the Brewer organization are really short on outfield help right now, and they're not going to get much assistance from this draft class. The Brewers drafted just eight outfielders and only signed three of them, the lowest total in the three years I've been tracking this. Seven of the eight players picked and all three signees were high schoolers:
5 CF Michael Reed
9 CF Malcolm Dowell
13 CF Mallex Smith
22 CF G.J. Jones
44 CF Steve Adam
47 CF Jecid Tarazona
50 RF Matthew Franco
The only collegiate outfielder the Brewers selected didn't sign:
12 OF Andrew Cain
No JUCO outfielders were drafted.
The fact that the Brewers didn't draft many outfielders and signed less is a large part of the reason they had to start a pitcher in the outfield in a recent AZL game. It's not entirely the Brewers' fault: They really had no reason to believe they wouldn't be able to sign Andrew Cain, and he and Mallex Smith were their top two unsigned picks.
Here's the breakdown:
| Year | # Drafted | % | # Signed | % | HS | Signed | 4 Yr | Signed | JUCO | Signed |
| 2011 | 8 | 16% | 3 | 38% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 8 | 16% | 5 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | 12 | 23% | 9 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | n/a* | n/a* |
Infielders
Last year the Brewers drafted and signed eight college infielders, while leaving all the high school players for other teams. This year they took a more balanced approach, drafting six high schoolers and signing three:
18 SS Chris McFarland
19 SS Renaldo Jenkins
30 3B Trent Boras
41 3B Jalen Harris
42 SS Caleb Whalen
45 SS Ahmad Christian
They also drafted five collegiate infielders and signed four:
4 1B Nick Ramirez
21 1B Mike Nemeth
32 SS Alfredo Rodriguez
45 SS Adrian Williams
49 2B Gant Elmore
Here's a breakdown by position:
Two first basemen, both signed
One second baseman, signed
Six shortstops, three signed
Two third basemen, one signed
Here's the signing breakdown:
| Year | # Drafted | % | # Signed | % | HS | Signed | 4 Yr | Signed | JUCO | Signed |
| 2011 | 11 | 22% | 6 | 55% | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 8 | 16% | 8 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 11 | 21% | 7 | 64% | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | n/a* | n/a* |
And the positional breakdown by year:
| Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| 1B | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Signed | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2B | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Signed | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 3B | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Signed | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| SS | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Signed | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Catchers
The Brewers added a lot of depth behind the plate, drafting eight catchers and signing five. Both of those numbers were the highest I've seen. Almost all of the depth came from the college ranks, but the highest pick was the only high schooler:
8 Dustin Houle
17 Mario Amaral
28 BreShon Kimbell
40 Keaton Aldridge
Meanwhile, all four collegiate players signed:
23 Ben McMahon
25 Parker Berberet
34 Adam Weisenburger
35 Doug Elliot
While Elliot technically counts as a signing, he's already out of the organization: He retired after four pro games.
The Brewers didn't select any JUCO catchers. Here's the breakdown:
| Year | # Drafted | % | # Signed | % | HS | Signed | 4 Yr | Signed | JUCO | Signed |
| 2011 | 8 | 16% | 5 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 6 | 12% | 3 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 5 | 9% | 2 | 40% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | n/a* | n/a* |
* - In 2009 I counted JUCO players as college players.
Conclusions:
The Brewers made a pretty significant commitment to the future here. Paying out the money to sign two first round picks and still getting all but four players from the first 21 rounds wasn't cheap, and the depth added because of that willingness to spend money could help an organization with very limited depth.
The team made a solid effort to fill in depth at positions of organizational need. Shelling out the cash to sign two high school shortstops (18th and 19th round picks Chris McFarland and Renaldo Jenkins) would imply that the organization recognizes the need to inject some talent there. With that said, they also didn't draft a non-1B infielder until the 18th round.
The lack of talented outfielders in the lower levels of the minors is a problem we're going to continue to see. The fact that the Brewers only added three outfielders from this entire draft means many of the lower level affiliates will have to continue to play players out of position out there, and they likely won't have much talent to use to replace players like Franklin Romero Jr (hitting .219/.234/.301 for Wisconsin) or Robbie Garvey (.218/.283/.280 between Helena/Wisconsin) anytime soon. Clearly this isn't a top priority, but the fact that the organization has drafted this few outfielders two years in a row is somewhat puzzling.
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The #1 thing for me is that they signed all top 10 picks
And 19 of the first 25 rounders (technically 20 with Jungmann and Bradley in the first round)
Pretty good all things considered.
Grillax people
Drafting OF
Not entirely unusual to not draft many OF, many guys are drafted at infield positions and moved later (like Braun or Hart).
That said, position players haven’t been a priority, seems clear they’re attempting to build the pitching pipeline for 2013 when they’ll lose 3 rotation guys.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Aug 16, 2011 6:21 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I know this is just how things are most of the time now...
… and I’m not suggesting it’s predictive of how they’ll do, or what kind of people they are in other circumstances, but I don’t like these quotes at all out of our first round picks:
"I know a lot of people talked about signing early and things like that but when you’re talking about a bonus like this, it’s something you have to take very serious. I have to try to get as much as I can. You’ve got to treat it like you’re never going to get any more money the rest of your life.
And from Bradley:
"We thought about (signing earlier) but I threw a good amount of innings (during his junior season)," he said. "I don’t think I would have thrown too much going to rookie ball.
"We made a decision that we wanted to wait and see if we could make the deal a little bit better as the summer went along. It turns out that we could have. Looking back, I think that was the best decision. I gave my body time to rest and recuperate. Now I’m ready to go and we ended up agreeing on a good deal. So, I’m glad we did that."
In spite of that, Bradley also said this about how quickly he might get to Milwaukee, apparently oblivious to the possible causal connection between losing the better part of a summer of development and getting to the big leagues:
"At the end of the day, that’s not up to me," said Bradley. "I think I could be a great asset and a great help to the Brewers at the big-league level very soon. Obviously, that depends on my health and my performance but I’d like to get there as soon as possible."
I’m glad they both signed, and I guess I’m not surprised they think the way they do. I know the league’s policy contributes mightily to late signings, but I think these quotes pretty much resolve the question of whether the players and their agents (who I’m certain both kids are parroting here) play in whether they wait until the deadline to sign.
And finally, thank you Ryan Braun, for not thinking the way these two kids think when you both signed out of college and your first extension with the Brewers. I hope we find another guy that thinks like you someday soon.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 16, 2011 6:35 PM CDT reply actions
So he should take less money than he's worth?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Aug 16, 2011 7:09 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I just don't think that the result of a negotiation
that’s exclusive with a single team, that may have a talent shortage at their particular position, with the league announcing a figure that serves as the floor below which the team can’t go, doesn’t tell us what the guy’s worth. College player or not, the first rounders have way more leverage than the team does, and a lot of it is artificially created.
But that’s not what I was saying, as you already knew, I suspect. I was saying that I’d prefer my 22-23 year old ball players who were going to get millions to sign no matter what they did to sound like something other than a 40 year old financial adviser when they sign a contract to play baseball. I’m not sure why that’s such a controversial opinion, but it apparently is, because the nearly universal reaction I’ve gotten every time I’ve suggested that I’d like to see an early round pick take a different approach (as they used to not all that long ago) is pretty much identical to your suggestion that I think the player should take whatever the team offers and somehow impoverish themselves in the process.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 16, 2011 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions
He was asked about his contract, and answered the question
He certainly could have made more if he was on the open market, but since his rights are owned by the Brewers, his leverage was minimized. The Brewers could have taken a lesser player who would have signed right away (the Padres did this), but they chose not to.
Assuming he spends 2 years in the minors, and the Brewers wait to call him up to manipulate his service time, he will be under team control and unable to negotiate his contract for the next 8 to 9 years.
I don’t fault him for getting all he can for him and his family, just as I wouldn’t fault any person working a 9-5 for doing the same thing.
Get a ife broseph
I don't really fault him either.
I just think it’s fair to point out that not everyone thinks that way and sometimes it works out fairly well for those folks too. And yeah, he answered the question, but there were other answers available, if they’d have been the truth. If these guys were telling the truth, and I’m sure they were, I’m not impressed. Doesn’t mean they’re bad people, just means I like them less than I would have if they’d have made different choices and offered different (truthful) answers, or in Bradley’s case, show some awareness that his own choices can affect how quickly he might (or might not) make it to Milwaukee.
Oh, and this is entirely beside my actual point (as I think you know), but on the open market, the Brewers wouldn’t have been locked in to paying these particular two pitchers pretty much whatever they felt like they could get away with demanding. If you’re at an auction and you want to buy a chair and there are 200 chairs to bid on. You can bid on one and if the the price gets too high, you can stop bidding and wait for the next one.
In this kind of auction, you have to pick your chair ahead of time, you can’t pick another one if the guy selling it demands more than you want to pay, so you either get out your wallet and give him what he wants, or you go without a chair. And you’re precluded from asking the seller how much the chair costs before you pick out the one you want.
Could either or both of them have made more on the open market? Probably yeah, but then there wouldn’t be a slotting system and a virtual guarantee that they’d get no less than x dollars, and on the open market I can promise you that there are guys who would make less than what they get because of the draft and its slotting system. Maybe these two guys weren’t those players this year, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist, and it doesn’t mean they aren’t benefiting fairly dramatically from the system through the elimination of risk and the inability of teams to go elsewhere once the selections are made. Exclusivity is a two way street which benefits both parties, not just the teams.
Anyway, I’m an odd guy as you’ve probably noticed. I turned my back on very lucrative opportunities I was offered early in my career to do (relatively) poorly compensated work that I loved doing, so I’ll admit my perspective on these things is a little atypical.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 16, 2011 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just to reiterate what Supertramp said
This is their only time FOR EIGHT OR NINE YEARS to negotiate a contract — there’s no way you should call them greedy for trying to maximize the signing bonus.
Sigh.
There’s lots of things going on here. I’ve admitted that about 5 times in this thread already, and my point (which perhaps I haven’t made very well) was a little more nuanced than just calling them greedy.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 17, 2011 5:31 AM CDT up reply actions
I get your point, and I think the suggested money for slots is dumb too
But it was put in as a response to high bonuses, by the owners. I can’t think of one player who made more money because the slots existed. It sets an artificially created low point aimed to start negotiations. If the Brewers don’t want to pay that, don’t. Spend the money on another kid in the draft, or in Latin America.
With leverage – the Brewers draft numerous kids every year simply for leverage purposes. I’m sure at one point in the negotiations, they said to Bradley “Here’s our offer, if you don’t want to accept we are prepared to give your bonus to Carlos Rondon and Mallex Smith”
Because there are so many rounds in the draft, they can take players as backup plans and for leverage against their top picks. If not, why are they taking guys with bigger bonus demands late in the draft?
Bradley’s leverage is to go back to school and reenter the draft next year, where he will be facing the exact same situation with a different team. Bradley has one choice to make, the Brewers can play Bradley against a hundred different players – yet you’re certain that Bradley is the one who has the Brewers bent over backwards?
Get a ife broseph
Ryan Braun got a $2.45 million signing bonus and the only reason he didn’t sign in the hour before the signing deadline is because there wasn’t a signing deadline then. It was instituted in 2007.
Bradley and Jungmann were not being overly greedy, this is just how the process works currently. And, as they themselves noted, they pitched full college seasons and wouldn’t have really been able to pitch in the minors this season anyways.
"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder
So their own description of what happens doesn't matter at all then?
Think we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 17, 2011 5:29 AM CDT up reply actions




































