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Today's Matchup(s): Brewers (Narveson, Greinke) at Pirates (Karstens, Lincoln)

Editor's note: Due to the tight schedule today, this post is both a series preview and today's game preview post.

Brewers

vs.

76-52 (1st place, NL Central)
59-66 (4th place, NL Central)

GAME 1: August 22, 2011 @ 4:05 p.m. CDT
(TV: FS-Wisconsin; Radio: 620 WTMJ)

GAME 2
: August 22, 2011 following Game 1
(TV: FS-Wisconsin; Radio: 620 WTMJ)

GAME 3: August 23, 2011 @ 6:05 p.m. CDT
(TV: FS-Wisconsin; Radio: 620 WTMJ)

GAME 4: August 24, 2011 @ 11:35 a.m. CDT
(TV: WMLW 41; Radio: 620 WTMJ)

PNC Park   Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

SBN Coverage: Brewers vs Pirates coverage

A View from the Other Dugout: Bucs Dugout

Game 4 Chris Narveson (8-6, 4.49) vs. Jeff Karstens (9-6, 3.12)
vs. Pirates (1-0, 1.50) vs. Brewers (0-1, 3.60)
Game 2 Zack Greinke (12-4, 3.92) vs. Brad Lincoln (0-0, 5.40)
vs. Pirates (2-0, 4.97) vs. Brewers (0-0, ---)
Game 3 Marco Estrada (3-8, 4.28) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (0-0, 7.27)
vs. Pirates (1-0, 0.00) vs. Brewers (0-0, ---)
Game 4 Shaun Marcum (11-3, 3.40) vs. Kevin Correia (12-10, 4.78)
vs. Pirates (1-0, 0.61) vs. Brewers (0-3, 5.94)

 

Brewerspirates_medium

For more information on available tickets in this series, check out the BCB/TiqIQ page.

Today is probably going to be the most interesting day of this 17 game, 16 day stretch as the Brewers and Pirates play a pair at PNC Park.

In game one, our old friend Jeff Karstens (3.12 ERA, 4.38 FIP) will be on the mound for the Pirates. Karstens is having easily the best year of his career: He's already set a new high for innings with 141.1 and this is his only full major league season where his ERA has been under four. He's also showing some pretty impressive control, walking just 1.7 batters per nine innings. He faced the Cardinals on Tuesday and allowed three runs on six hits in 5.1 innings, walking two and striking out five.

The home run ball has been Karstens' nemesis over the course of his career: He allows about 1.3 per nine innings and 12.8% of fly balls hit off of him this season have left the ballpark. He won't strike many batters out, though, as his 5.41 K per nine innings this season is a career high. He throws a high 80's fastball but nearly half of his pitches will be either sliders (16.9% of all pitches), curves (14.5%) or changeups (13%). FanGraphs has the curve as his best pitch this season at +2.29 runs per 100.

This is the second time Karstens has faced the Brewers in 2011: On May 14 he picked up the loss as the Brewers scored two runs against him on five hits over five innings. Prince Fielder and Brandon Boggs took him deep in that game. Five Brewers have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Ryan Braun 22 .316 .409 .789 1.199
Prince Fielder 20 .267 .450 1.000 1.450
Corey Hart 20 .105 .150 .158 .308
Craig Counsell 17 .231 .353 .462 .814
Casey McGehee 11 .222 .364 .222 .586


Karstens will face Chris Narveson (4.49 ERA, 3.78 FIP), and if you know what to expect from him today you should tell the rest of us. He's making his first start since August 6, coming off a 15 day stint on the DL with a laceration on his left thumb. He didn't go on a rehab assignment and has only pitched one bullpen session since, so it's tough to tell how long the Brewers will let him go today. He's thrown 87, 86, 85 and 84 pitches in his last four starts, so I guess all signs point towards him throwing 83 today.

2010 was something of a breakout year for Narveson, but 2011 has been even better. His 3.78 FIP is a career low and his 1.7 fWAR has already tied a career high with over a month of the season remaining. A large portion of that improvement can be attributed to the fact that his home run rate has gone significantly down this season, from 1.34 in 2009 and 1.13 in 2010 to 0.88 per nine innings this season. He's also throwing his changeup a lot more (over a third of the time), and it's been his best pitch statistically.

Narveson faced Jeff Karstens on May 14 and was the winning pitcher, allowing a run on five hits over six innings with four walks and five strikeouts. Four current Pirates have faced him ten times or more:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Andrew McCutchen 13 .385 .385 .692 1.077
Ronny Cedeno 11 .250 .455 .250 .705
Ryan Ludwick 11 .182 .182 .182 .364
Garrett Jones 10 .100 .100 .100 .200


Here's the lineup in game one:

CF Nyjer Morgan
2B Jerry Hairston, Jr.
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Mark Kotsay
SS Yuni Betancourt
C George Kottaras
3B Craig Counsell
P Chris Narveson

And the bullpen situation:

Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (8 pitches) yesterday and also pitched on Saturday.
LaTroy Hawkins pitched one inning (18 pitches) yesterday.
John Axford pitched one inning (16 pitches) Saturday.
Takashi Saito pitched .2 innings (15 pitches) Saturday.
Kameron Loe and Frankie De La Cruz haven't pitched since Friday.
Tim Dillard might get to pitch if the two teams decide to play a third game today.

Weather:

It should be a beautiful day for baseball today, with temps in the low 70's dropping back into the 60's as the evening goes along.

Follow the jump for the pitching matchup for game two.

Star-divide

After a break for orange wedges and juice boxes, Brad Lincoln (5.40 ERA, 4.13 FIP) will make just his second major league start of 2011 in game two. Lincoln is 26 and a former #4 overall pick, and he's spent most of the season posting a 4.19 ERA in nineteen starts for AAA Indianapolis. Like Karstens, control seems to be his biggest asset: He's walking just 1.7 per nine innings in the minors while striking out 7.6. Lincoln pitched in relief on Friday, allowing a run on a hit and a walk to the Reds in 0.2 innings of work.

Lincoln hasn't thrown more than 40 pitches in a game since being recalled to the big leagues on August 7, so it remains to be seen how long the Pirates will let him pitch today. He has a low-to-mid 90's fastball with a curve and changeup that have both been above average in a relatively small big league sample size.

Lincoln is facing the Brewers for the first time in 2011 but was roughed up in two starts against them last year, allowing a combined ten runs on 16 hits over 8.1 innings.  George Kottaras, Ryan Braun and Jim Edmonds took him deep in those games. No Brewers have faced him ten times or more.

He'll face Zack Greinke (3.92 ERA, 2.92 FIP), making his first start since pushing his ERA under four for the first time this season. It was all the way up to 5.66 on July 3 but he's allowed just ten earned runs in 53.1 innings since to bring it back down to this point. He was very good against the Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing a run on five hits over seven innings with three walks and eight strikeouts.

The Brewers have won seven of Greinke's last eight appearances, and it's not hard to figure out why: He's holding opposing batters to a .212/.273/.332 line over that time, and striking out about 10.5 batters per nine. He's thrown at least six innings in nine straight starts and seven or more in each of his last three.

This is Greinke's third start against the Pirates, and results from the first two have been a little mixed. He was very good against them on August 12, holding them to two runs on six hits over 7.2 innings. Back on May 15 he was not as strong, allowing five runs on six hits over five innings. He's struck out a combined 14 while walking two in the two games. Ryan Ludwick (.000/.083/.000) and Andrew McCutchen (.200/.200/.500) are the only Pirates that have faced him ten times.

Comment 32 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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If you're gonna "play the numbers" with Kotsay

might as well do it during a doubleheader where Corey Hart is hitting .105 in 20 PAs.

by Archibaldcrane on Aug 22, 2011 2:06 PM CDT reply actions  

Beyond that, Karstens seems to have a pronounced L/R split

RRR loves playing the L/R matchups with his lineups.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wonder if that will extend to pitching match-ups against the Braves and/or Phillies?

Both of whom are much worse against LH pitching. I doubt he would do it but there is a case of having him start instead of say Greinke who is alot worse against LH hitters than right. Note Marcum is historically just as good against both left and right handed hitters and may be key against the LH heavy hitting Phillies.

by Saltire on Aug 22, 2011 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is a unique lineup.

"People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."- Rogers Hornsby

by icecreamman on Aug 22, 2011 2:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Confused.

Explain, plz.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

You're not familiar with the plan?

I’m not sure if I’m allowed to speak about it, but basically its what RR says whenever Braun is kept out of a game – “Its part of the plan to keep him healthy and at full strength”

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 22, 2011 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

I was unfamiliar with the plan

In this case, I think we’re safe. Roenicke can’t reasonably think Kotsay (or Counsell) can go 2 games in a night. Braun may get tomorrow off, but I think he’s going both games today. There isn’t even anyone available to spell him if it gets late in the game unlike McGehee → Fielder

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you're right

I was thinking Hairston could man LF without much of a problem.

Braun has started stealing bases a bit more lately, seems like the hammy is pretty close to 100%

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 22, 2011 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anyone else curious about why Tuesday day game is so expensive?

Is it just the secondary market being weighted towards premium seats since every other section is freely available from the team?

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 3:02 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

They need to pay for Tabata's extension.

In all serious, I was wondering how a Pirates/Brewers Tuesday day game was much more expensive as well.

by MGT on Aug 22, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ha, looks like someone is trying to sell a ticket for $2,711

That likely is driving up the average quite a bit.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 22, 2011 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's awesome

I’m assuming it must include the phrase, “comes with 1 oz of gold.”

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why start game one so late ?

This has potential to be a very late night if one or both games goes over 3 hours

"It's a joke. It's all a joke.

by WSB Chris on Aug 22, 2011 3:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Exactly

I don’t think either team has taken into consideration the fact that the late start means I’m very likely to fall asleep before the end of game one, let alone see the end of game two. For shame!

Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife

by MrLeam on Aug 22, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

You have been following baseball all these years

And now are starting to complain about a game that will probably finish around 1am?
When you started watching the sport you probably were watch games on channel 5 that did not start until then.

by Saltire on Aug 22, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

The answer is always

money.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Pirates are falling apart

per THwitter

Pirates just lost their Wednesday pitcher against #Brewers. RHP Kevin Correia goes on the DL. Maholm already went on DL. Wow.

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Aug 22, 2011 3:24 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Oh, wow.

They just called Ohlendorf up to the make the start tomorrow. I wonder who’s left to cover Wednesday.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Aug 22, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wonder if being a MLB manager means

You have to have a stick implanted up your ass and you must have your sense of humor and fun removed

"It's a joke. It's all a joke.

by WSB Chris on Aug 22, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I actually agree with him

Routine base hits don’t really deserve special recognition and I’m pretty liberal on my views of onfield celebrations. I can see celebrating an RBI or a long double that you crushed to the wall, but a line drive single to CF? That seems a bit too workmanlike to celebrate.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 22, 2011 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think doing it for routine singles

kinda shows that they’re just having fun, and it’s not all about “oh yeah that really helped us beat you, stupid opposing team” – it’s about the Brewers, not about the competition.

by Archibaldcrane on Aug 22, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree

Doing it for virtually every hit really does start to look like they are rubbing it in. Imagine if an opposing pitcher went “beast mode” every time he got a Brewer out; I think that would really start to rub folks the wrong way.

by TSmith34 on Aug 22, 2011 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt when dealing with the players

He’s been able to keep Morgan under control and deal with his craziness, the players seem to like him, etc. He seems to be going about it the right way.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 22, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wonder what team he's referring to?

Morgan:

We don’t want to seem like we’re out there being cocky and don’t respect someone else’s game, or the game in general.

by proachinf on Aug 22, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Playing weak first game, strong next game?

Is that a Roenicke possibility? Does he think he has a better chance winning the second game with Greinke than the first game with Narveson against Karstens?

by gffjenks on Aug 22, 2011 4:19 PM CDT reply actions  

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