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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while finishing your assessments.

Hopefully you're getting some work done this morning, because you're going to want to take a break around 11:30 to catch today's getaway-day special in Pittsburgh. The lineups have been posted, and Jerry Hairston Jr (in center) and Josh Wilson (at second) are starting behind Shaun Marcum. Evan Drellich of MLB.com has the preview.

When the two teams take the field we'll get to see the major league debut of pitcher Aaron Thompson, who has been called up to make a spot start today. Thompson is 24 and was a first round pick in 2005 but has made just four professional appearances above AA (including three this season).

The Brewers have a chance to clinch a series victory after last night's 11-4 blowout win. The Brewers are now 10-1 against the Pirates this season and Tom Haudricourt praised their ability to turn the page following Monday night's ugly loss in the doubleheader nightcap.

Another day, another record: Last night's Brewer win paired with a Cardinal loss means Milwaukee is now ten games up in the division for the first time in franchise history. Dayn Perry of NotGraphs has a gif that emulates the NL Central race.

Other notes from the field:

  • Prince Fielder went 1-for-3 with three walks and a double last night and drove in his 100th run. He's the first major leaguer to reach the century mark this season.
  • The three walks also pushed his season total to 85. He trails only Joey Votto (93) in the NL in that category.
  • Marco Estrada, Ryan Braun and Ross Ohlendorf are leading FanGraphs Star of the Game voting.

Meanwhile, yesterday's biggest news was the announcement that the Brewers are on the cover of this week's issue of Sports Illustrated. You can read the story here. Ron Roenicke shrugged off the notion of a "cover jinx." PastKast, meanwhile, remembers when Rob Deer was on the cover in 1987.

Nyjer Morgan is getting the day off today with a lefty on the mound, which should give him plenty of time to read everything that's been written about him recently. In addition to the Sports Illustrated article today he's the subject of a massive feature story in the JS and he makes an appearance (along with Bob Uecker) on NotGraphs' Best Tools list.

Here's today's injury update: Carlos Gomez took batting practice and slid into bases yesterday. He's hoping to rejoin the team on September 1.

Ryan Braun ran wild again last night, going 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles, walking twice and stealing two bases. He also rounded the bases in 21.19 seconds following his home run Monday, a hair slower than Corey Hart's 20.06 seconds leading off the second game.

Looking ahead, the Brewers have clarified their plans a bit for the rotation going forward: Zack Greinke is scheduled to start Sunday's game against the Cubs, while Chris Narveson will get some extra rest and start on Tuesday in the series opener against the Cardinals. The Brewers could have used Narveson Sunday and saved Greinke for the Cardinals, but opted not to.

Today's Prince Fielder notes are both pretty interesting:

There are some selective sample size issues here, but the point holds: Joe Posnanski noted that Yovani Gallardo has a 2.52 ERA and 123:39 K:BB ratio if you remove five poor starts in April and May from his 2011 line.

In the minors:

  • The affiliates went 2-4 yesterday, and Brock Kjeldgaard and Zelous Wheeler each had three hits in Huntsville's 5-2 win over Birmingham. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
  • Speaking of Kjeldgaard, earlier this season he tied a Brevard County record by hitting 18 home runs in a single season before being promoted. That record is already in jeopardy: Hunter Morris is sitting at 17 with a couple of weeks to play.
  • Reed MacPhail of FanGraphs has a graphical look at 2011 draft spending, and shows the Brewers in the middle of the pack by nearly every measure.
  • Wisconsin has released their 2012 schedule. Make your plans now to attend Opening Day on April 5...and by "make your plans" I mean "start knitting a sweater."

These numbers are for entertainment purposes only, of course, but Howie Magner is in Las Vegas and noticed that the MGM Sports Book has the Brewers at 5-1 odds to win the World Series, behind only Philadelphia, Boston and the Yankees.

J-Doug of Beyond the Box Score has some numbers that would suggest those aren't good odds. His projections give the Brewers a 56.2% chance of winning the NLDS, a 24.8% chance of winning the NLCS and a 9.5% chance of winning the Series.

Like many of you (presumably), I'm being forced to learn how to follow and write about a Brewer team that's consistently good. Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker has a look back at the 2002 Brewers for a reminder of how far this team has come. This week's edition of A Simple Kind of Fan talks about changing the culture of losing.

If you'd like more Brewer content this morning but you're sick of reading, the View From Bernie's Chalet podcast is up. This week's topics include the hot streak, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez's rehab and first round busts.

Around baseball:

Diamondbacks: Acquired infielders Aaron Hill and John McDonald from the Blue Jays for second baseman Kelly Johnson.
Dodgers: Designated catcher Dioner Navarro for assignment.
Giants: Placed pitcher Jonathan Sanchez on the DL with a sprained ankle.
Mariners: Placed pitcher Dan Cortes on the DL with a sprained ankle.
Marlins: Designated outfielder Dewayne Wise for assignment.
Mets: Are expected to place pitcher Jon Niese and infielder Scott Hairston on the DL with rib injuries.
Orioles: Designated outfielder Felix Pie for assignment.
Phillies: Placed pitcher Cole Hamels on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Pirates: Placed infielder Steve Pearce on the DL with a broken finger, designated reliever Joe Beimel for assignment and signed pitcher Nelson Figueroa to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Acquired third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff from the A's for future considerations and placed pitcher Edgmer Escalona on the DL with a rotator cuff strain.

It's relatively likely nothing will come of this, but Astros pitcher Wandy Rodriguez has been claimed off waivers by the Rockies. The two teams now have until sometime tomorrow to work out a deal, or Rodriguez will remain an Astro. In an added twist, Wandy is scheduled to start against the Rockies today. You know that and much more if you've read this morning's edition of Around the NL Central, which Rubie might have written while sitting outside Rodriguez's hotel room.

Today in former Brewers:

We've written a lot about John Axford this season, and for good reason: He's having one of the best seasons by a reliever in Brewer history. But it's possible he's not even having the best season among NL relievers: Braves closer Craig Kimbrel has now pitched 31.2 consecutive scoreless innings over 32 appearances. To put that in perspective, Axford has allowed seven runs (five earned) over the same time frame.

Away from baseball, of course, yesterday's biggest news story was the surprising earthquake that briefly shook most of the east coast. Adam McCalvy says he felt it in Pittsburgh, and it also hit during a Mariners/Indians game in Cleveland.

Elsewhere in natural disasters impacting baseball games: The Reds and Marlins have cancelled tomorrow's scheduled game and will play a doubleheader today to allow both teams to get out before Hurricane Irene hits.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need an answer to this question.

Drink up.

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I watched it about 8 times and it is a great comparison.

by grant76 on Aug 24, 2011 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

I read the whole Schoenfield article about Fielder and Pujols and he ended up saying they are both a risk, flip a coin. I could have saved 5 minutes of reading. And now you can too.

Interesting that in the poll, fans would pursue Fielder at almost a 2-1 rate over Pujols.

by grant76 on Aug 24, 2011 10:02 AM CDT reply actions  

If Pujols (and this is a big if) is actually going to need a contract running something like 8/$200

Then Fielder is almost certainly the better risk at something like 6/$150.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 24, 2011 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

You think he'll get all the way up to 6 / $150MM?

I thought you were more in the $140 MM camp. Or do you see it as more like getting 7-year contract money over 6 years? It only takes 2 good GMs (or 1 poor one) to start a bidding war so I suppose anything is possible.

I think $140 MM for his defense and his weight. If there happens to be only 2 teams interested in big money 1B this offseason, he might find himself wishing he had taken the $20 MM the Brewers offered last year.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hey, thanks!

It’s a grind sometimes and it’s not without its share of frustrations, but this is a pretty sweet gig.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 24, 2011 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

DITTO

Assembling and writing this column on a regular basis looks like something resembling hard work, and I wish to thank you for your continued efforts and excellent results. Brew Crew Ball definitely adds to my enjoyment of the game and the Brewers season!

Mille grazie, mi buon amico!

"The first roommate I had in pro ball was named Arturo Polanco and he couldn't speak a word of English. So he taught me Spanish and I taught him English. The first words he learned were 'Son of a bleach.' I think something was lost in translation." -- Jim Bouton, Ball Four

by PlusorMinusThree on Aug 24, 2011 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

What?

In the Schoenfield article:

Over those 28 games, Fielder has hit .350 with six home runs, 27 RBIs, a few of his trademark bowling alley "strike" home run celebrations and the weight of a franchise that has never won the World Series carried on his broad shoulders.

Fielder hasn’t done any real home run celebration in 2 years, but this guy is saying he’s done it a few times in the last 28? That’s either lazy reporting or him just wanting to bring in the readers who hate Fielder by pointing out what people don’t like about him.

by uwbadgers on Aug 24, 2011 10:10 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

I Swear

The media just cannot let that one celebration go.

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Aug 24, 2011 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Narveson won't start till 9/3

per Haudricourt

#Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said LHP Chris Narveson won’t start again until Sept. 3 because of off days. Finally, a lefty in the bullpen!

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Aug 24, 2011 10:21 AM CDT reply actions  

Interesting

So much for resting the starters. Will be nice to have a lefty in the bullpen if needed.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't they have said Narveson won't start because of Estrada

And not that he won’t start because of off-days?

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 24, 2011 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

Note that

if Greinke pitches every 5th day the rest of the season, his turn comes up October 1 which I think is the first NLDS game. They’d have other starters skipping turns like crazy though with all the off days we have bunched together at various points.

by placidity on Aug 24, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Better against RHB than LHB this year

I would think it’s more for letting his thumb heal more than wanting a left in the bullpen.

Texas Leaguers is…odd. I know pitch classification changed from year to year, but this is pretty dramatic. In 2010 he threw sliders 10% of the time to LHB. In 2011, he hasn’t thrown any sliders at all. He’s replaced the sliders with change ups. It’s uncommon, if not very uncommon, for a LHP to throw a change up to a LHB as they customarily go to a slider for their offspeed stuff.

Depending upon the pitch classification, if Narveson really did stop throwing his slider to lefties, he’s been seriously shortchanging himself. The slider was an incredibly effective pitch against LHP. Much moreso than his 2011 changeup to lefties.

Why would Kranitz have let him remove an effective pitch from his arsenal?

Regardless, he’s not particularly effective against lefties this year, so Hawkins and Saito are still the best options outo f the bullpen for LHB.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

LHB have a lower BA, but a much higher walk rate

TH cherry-picked his stats to make it seem like Narveson is a viable lefty bullpen option. Maybe if Narveson starts pounding the strikezone against lefties, he’ll be effective, but for now he’s not a great option.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2011 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not sure I agree

Narveson allows a .674 OPS against LHB and a .748 OPS against RHB.

In his small sample this year, Saito has a .790 OPS against LHB. He has been better against RHB in his career, though good against both sides.

Hawkins has been very good against LHB this year, but a .808 OPS in his career. Did he change something and is not effective, or just a small sample quirk?

Would Narveson be better against LHB in small spurts? He’s much better the first time though the lineup – its not a stretch at all to think he immediately becomes the best bullpen option against LHP.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 24, 2011 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I suppose so, but he's definitely no LOOGY

Maybe Narveson becomes the best option for an inning that will see 2 of the first 3 or 4 hitters as lefties.

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Sure

But he also could be a LOOGY if the situation arose in the playoffs.

The bullpen has a lot of guys who can are awesome at getting RHB out, but no one that good at getting LHB outs (unless Hawkins changed something and is legitimately good at it now). Being able to mix and match would be great.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 24, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

He's definitely pitching lefties different this year

He’s throwing substantially more offspeed stuff in 2011 to lefties than in 2010. That said, he’s not getting nearly as many whiffs and they’re putting more in play. I would bet his BABIP against LHB is unusually low this year…and yes. A .228 BABIP against LHB.

There’s a chance his offspeed stuff is causing poor contact, but the more likely explanation does appear to be very good luck against LHB in 2011.

Go go LOOGY Narveson!

Founder of the BCBCU - Est. 2011

by ecocd on Aug 24, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

Can't some of the BABIP be because of weak contact?

Shouse was the guy I first thought of when thinking about this – he had a career .257 BABIP against LHB and .323 against RHB in his career.

Narveson’s GB rate against LHB this year is a pretty good 63%.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 24, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

It would be interesting to see if they would experiment with him as a LOOGY, in anticipation of the playoffs, or if he would just be another long reliever like Estrada.

I really don’t see a big need for a LOOGY, partly because the pen is pretty good, but mostly because the last four guys all have that whole inning mentality. They all have closer experience and seem like they all like to start and finish an inning.

by grant76 on Aug 24, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

Mike Ignasiak

I’ve never heard of the guy before, but that’s my mom’s maiden name. My great grandparents were Polish immigrants who came to Milwaukee. Mike’s wikipedia says he’s from Michigan, so I don’t see any relation, at least not since my ancestors moved to America.

Still kind of interesting. First time I’ve seen a none family member with that last name.

by KittenMittons on Aug 24, 2011 10:23 AM CDT reply actions  

He was a stud pitcher at U of Michigan

back in the late 1980s. Played on the same team as Jim Abbott. I saw him pitch in the 1987 Big Ten Championships and luckily i got a ring because he lost the game.

by backtocali on Aug 24, 2011 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Michigan won the Big Ten championship in 1987.

Are you trying to say, without actually saying, that you played big ten college ball?

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 24, 2011 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

had a laptop, radar gun

And a special program written for producing the output we wanted.

We were doing what pitch f/x does now but 20 years ago.

by backtocali on Aug 24, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Laptop? Did you say 1988 or 1998?

Your choices in 1988 were
this
 and
this

and maybe something like
this

"I agree but dont agree"

by juggernaut400 on Aug 24, 2011 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

None of those links worked

And yeah, it was 1988. It was carried in a brief case along with the gun. Cant remember exactly what it was, but it was pretty smooth. Its not like I was luggig around a big hard drive with me to every game.

by backtocali on Aug 24, 2011 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lol...

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 24, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

was it a sansomite?

because that is a quality briefcase right there.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Aug 24, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Sigh

Meaning we only tracked the information we wanted to track, such as pitch location, defensive positioning, where the ball was hit, etc.

by backtocali on Aug 24, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Troll.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 24, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

another note from THwitter
#Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said CF Carlos Gomez could go out on minor league rehab this weekend and rejoin club on Sept. 1.

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Aug 24, 2011 10:52 AM CDT reply actions  

Joe Posnanski Note

That’s an interesting tidbit. You know, if you remove the Brewers 54 losses, they are 78 an 0.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Aug 24, 2011 4:16 PM CDT reply actions  

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