Today's Matchup: Milwaukee (Greinke) vs Chicago (Coleman)

Yet again, the Brewers have a chance to sweep their opponents, with this series' potential victim being the Cubs.

Hoping to prevent that is Casey Coleman (2-6, 7.59).  Coleman has made 11 starts and 13 appearances for the Cubs this year, with most of them being pretty unsuccessful.  He's currently sporting a 5.07 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP.  He's been striking out a fair amount of people--his current 6.88 K/9 is more than he's had in the minors the past couple of years.  Unfortunately for him, walks have been a huge problem--a 5.65 BB/9 is nothing to write home about.  He had more success in the major leagues last year when he had a 4.11 ERA, a 4.24 FIP and a 4.97 xFIP in twelve appearances (eight starts), but he's never been the most successful guy in the minor leagues and I don't expect him to be a standout pitcher in the majors.  And so far he hasn't been. 

Coleman has been pretty terrible against both right and left handed hitters, but lefties in particularly have thrived against him, putting up a .343/.424/.559 line.  Righties are hitting .304/.406/.429 against Coleman.  He has been better away from Wrigley than at home, though that's not really saying a whole lot.  On the road, hitters are still hitting .297/.389/.484.  In Chicago, though, Coleman allows opponents to hit .360/.451/.500.  Clearly all of this is pointing to him three-hitting the Brewers today.

Coleman will throw four different pitches:  a 90 MPH four seamer, an 89 MPH two seamer, a 78 MPH curveball, and an 82 MPH changeup.  None of his pitches have a positive value this year according to fangraphs, while only his curveball has positive value over his career thus far. 

Coleman has not faced any current Brewers ten or more times.

On the mound for the Brewers today will be Zack Greinke (12-5, 4.22), who is coming off his worst start in a while when he gave up seven runs in 6.1 innings against the Pirates last week, bringing his ERA back over 4.00.  Greinke had a 1.89 ERA in eight starts prior to that, though, and had not given up more than two runs in any of the eight.  He is sporting the best xFIP of his career by far, and Greinke also currently has the second best WHIP and FIP of his career, with only his amazing 2009 season topping this year.  He's still near a 11 K/9 and is near a 2 BB/9.  Greinke has been nothing short of incredible, especially lately. 

Greinke has faced three current Cubs ten or more times.  Here is how they've fared:

PA Line
Carlos Pena 36 .152/.200/.303
Marlon Byrd 20 .111/.200/.278
Alfonso Soriano 15 .308/.400/.385

 

Lineups (per Haudricourt):

Brewers

RF Corey Hart
CF Nyjer Morgan
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
3B Casey McGehee
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
2B Jerry Hairston Jr.
Jonathan Lucroy
P Zack Greinke

Cubs

SS Starlin Castro
2B Darwin Barney
3B Aramis Ramirez
1B Carlos Pena
RF Tyler Colvin
CF Marlon Byrd
LF Alfonso Soriano
Koyie Hill
P Casey Coleman

In the bullpen:

LaTroy Hawkins pitched .1 innings (19 pitches) yesterday.
Francisco Rodriguez pitched one inning (11 pitches) Friday and 0.2 innings (8 pitches) yesterday
John Axford pitched 1 innings (27 pitches) Friday and one inning (11 pitches) yesterday.
Takashi Saito pitched .1 innings (4 pitches) Friday
Kameron Loe  last pitched on Tuesday.
Frankie De La Cruz and Chris Narveson last pitched on Monday.

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