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Another Argument About Why Yuniesky Betancourt Should Not Be A Starter

Everyone is tired of seeing these posts about why Yuniesky Betancourt should not be starting.  Yes, this is another of these posts.  It's probably written more out of frustration than anything else, but it needs to be said.  As of today, the Brewers are on a five-game losing streak (and a six-game losing streak at home).  It may not be time for drastic changes, but something needs to be done to spark this team.  How can the Brewers (and more specifically, Ron Roenicke) justify continuing to start Betancourt when the team is struggling like it has been?

Follow the jump for more.

Star-divide

Let's just look at some stats now.  First of all, here is the month-by-month breakdown for Betancourt (from B-Ref):


BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP HR RBI BB SO
March/April .261 .297 .359 .656 .271 1 10 5 9
May .178 .200 .289 .489 .182 2 8 3 13
June .284 .281 .409 .690 .288 2 9 0 7
July .299 .315 .437 .752 .300 2 13 3 7
August .235 .256 .389 .646 .245 3 15 3 13
September .259 .300 .407 .707 .273 1 4 1 5


Let's also zoom in at the more recent results.  From August 14 to September 9, here are Betancourt's stats:

BA .170 (16 for 94)
OBP .194
SLG .298
OPS .492
HR 2
RBI 8
BB 2
SO 12
GDP 4
BABIP .173
Total WPA -1.644
RE24 -15.04

 

First of all, some of you are probably wondering what RE24 is.  RE24 is a measure on Baseball-Reference.com of how many runs any specific player adds or subtracts as a batter or baserunner.  What that figure says is that over those 25 games, Betancourt cost the Brewers just over 15 runs.  The rest of the stats speak for themselves.  He's ice cold right now.  You might look at the BABIP and say that he's been a bit unlucky, and maybe that has been the case with some of his at-bats.  If you look at the monthly stats, his BA is in direct correlation with his BABIP.  If it was June, July, or even August, you could let him try to work out of it.  However, it's September right now.  Are you going to take the chance that he is going to break out of this slump?  There's a lot on the line right now, and playing him with the emphasis of trying to get him back on track is the wrong idea at this point in the season.

As I was looking at the stats, I also found something from FanGraphs that really helps show what his plate style is like.  Here are some of his percentages from his at-bats, along with the league average:


O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% F-Strike%
Betancourt 2011 40.0% 76.1% 56.8% 72.1% 95.1% 86.4% 65.7%
Betancourt Career Average 33.3% 69.3% 51.8% 74.1% 94.2% 87.9% 61.0%








League Average 2011 30.5% 64.9% 46.1% 68.2% 87.9% 80.8% 56.4%



If you need to know what the above terms mean, here is a glossary from FanGraphs that defines these terms

What does this table tell you?  Basically, not only is Betancourt's plate discipline worse than the league average for this league, it's even worse than his career average.  The percent of pitches outside the strike zone that he's swinging at is 40%, nearly 10% above the league average.  It's the highest it has been at in his career.  Of those pitches outside the strike zone that he is swinging at, he's making contact with over 72% of them.  It's hard to have a good hit when the pitch is outside the strike zone.  The first pitch strike percentage is much higher than league average as well at 65.7%.  It's not the highest of his career for a season, but it is up there.  Why did I pull these stats out from all of those?  It's simple.  These percentages show he doesn't have good plate discipline.  It's worse this year than usual, and even if he gets closer to his career averages, it's still worse than the league averages.  He just doesn't have a good batting style, and that means it is less likely that he is going to snap out of it.

Now, take a deep breath, then let it out.  Brace yourself, because we're going to talk about defense.  I'm not as experienced with defensive stats, so this is going to be more brief.  Let's pull up some of the stats from FanGraphs:

DPR -0.3
RngR -8.3
ErrR -0.3
UZR -8.9
UZR/150 -11.8


Once again, if you need to know what some of these terms mean, check out this glossary from FanGraphs.  Basically, this says exactly what we already know.  His defense is bad.  More specifically, the worst part of his defense is from his range, though all aspects of it are below average.

All of this has been said, some of it by multiple people.  It also brings up the question of what to do about it.  The Brewers may not have a candidate that can replace Betancourt, but let's look at who is available.  I'm aware that some small sample size issues may come up here, but for obvious reasons, that is unavoidable.


BA OBP SLG OPS BB % SO % UZR UZR/150
Betancourt .252 .271 .378 .649 2.9% 10.3% -8.9 -11.8
Counsell .169 .269 .216 .485 10.3% 12.0% 2.4 41.2
Hairston, Jr. .266 .339 .367 .706 8.7% 12.2% 3.9* 9.8*
Wilson .229 .264 .361 .625 4.5% 23.6% -0.7 -21.9


* - UZR stats are based on SS only.  Hairston's UZR stats are from 2010 since he has only spent 1 inning at SS this season.

The options aren't great, but Hairston has had some success offensively and has experience at shortstop, even if he hasn't played it this year.  Why not give him a chance?  I understand that this isn't the time to be trying new things, but considering the state of the team and the need to get the offense going a little more, why not give him a chance?  With Weeks coming back, finding a way to get him into the lineup more often would be beneficial to the team.  Even getting Counsell more starts could help.  He may not provide offense, but he has better plate discipline and will provide better defense.

A lot of this may be information that we've all heard several times before, but apparently it still needs to be said since Betancourt is still a starter.  The Brewers really need to make a change.  Are they really ready to put their playoff hopes and possible success on a player that is not suited to be playing everyday?

Comment 86 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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Comments

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Yeah, fuck Yuni

I mean really, what has he done for us lately? I mean besides hit .275 since the all-star break and drive in the tying/go-ahead run in every game against Philly.

by Andrew Heidke on Sep 11, 2011 5:16 AM CDT reply actions  

moving on up

Not last among qualified shortstops in WAR anymore. Just 2nd from last. For 5mil.

by John Good on Sep 11, 2011 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

274/.294/.428

That’s his entire line for the second half of this season.

Let’s see how he does with RISP… .230/.252/.341 It’s even worse with any men on base… .213/.237/.329

That means he’s getting meaningless hits. If he’s going to suck, at least he could rise to the occasion when it matters… but he doesn’t.

BTW – His career numbers are .269/.292/.391. That means that he’s not likely to improve on how he’s hitting right now.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

You do realize

Hairston is 0 for his last 16. Betancourt has played some of his best defense of the year during the Phillie series. There are two plays specifically that Hairston wouldn’t have made. Betancourt also had a hit in the ninth inning Friday night to keep the rally going.

Go ahead, replace Betancourt with Hairston………….but seriously that is not in the best interests of this team at this time.

by statsllc on Sep 11, 2011 9:06 AM CDT reply actions  

0 for 16

is only 4 games worth. You get colds that take you out for at least that long.

Yes, an 0 for 16 means that it’s pretty unlikely for the next AB to be a hit, but career and season numbers are more predictive of the next AB than the previous game or two.

Also, Betancourt has sustained suck both on O and D with glimmers of non-suck. Our bench players are marginal suck with otherwise averagness that can play D.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 11, 2011 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Betancourt has played some of his best defense of the year during the Phillie series. There are two plays specifically that Hairston wouldn’t have made.

This is the worst thing about Yuni: he’s completely warped our notion of what a good defensive play from a SS actually is. Hairston would have made every play that Yuni made in this series. None of the plays was especially difficult; it’s just that Yuni makes them look that way.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 12, 2011 7:30 AM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I'm not sure that's the case here. He actually showed some pretty good range on those two plays.

I don’t think it was just a Yunillusion, like you’re suggesting.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Sep 12, 2011 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

I just watched the replay of Polanco's grounder four times to see if I was overreacting

and I don’t think I am. That ball wasn’t hit hard at all, and any normal SS takes two (or maybe three) strides, gets in front of it, sets his feet and gets Polanco by five steps. Yuni, for whatever reason, takes these ridiculous, choppy steps — five of ’em, by my count — and then does that whirling throw which makes the play look much more difficult than it was.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 12, 2011 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

GIDP w/bases loaded, one out, against Halladay on the FIRST PITCH

Big deal he got a hit when they’re down big. He had a much greater opportunity to knock the Cy Young award winner out of the game and promptly took a gigantic shit on any possibility of a comeback.

by LoydC on Sep 12, 2011 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yuni's best <> an average MLB SS's best

I also disagree that Hairston wouldn’t have been able to make either of those plays.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly

Yuni WAR ~ 0.4 (B-ref)
Average Major League WAR = 2

by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 12, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wait...

You’d rather someone have a low O-contact % – but then you say Counsell has good plate discipline. Would you rather he miss the ball completely? I get that there’s less risk of double-plays if you swing and miss, but what’s the point of swinging if you don’t make contact? I agree with you though that O-swing should be lower.

Counsell’s O-contact is 86.7% this season. That’s 10-12 higher than Yuni and tons higher than league average.

You can’t have it both ways.

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 11, 2011 9:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Ok, I think I was a little off on that argument.

Consider it this way: Betancourt swings at 40% of pitches outside the strike zone, and makes contact with about 72% of those pitches. So, that’s about 28.8% of pitches that he swings at, which are outside the strike zone and he makes contact with them.

Compare that to Counsell. Yes, his O-Contact is higher at 86.7%, but he only swings at 25% of pitches outside the strike zone. That’s about 21.6% of pitches that he swings at outside the strike zone and he makes contact, still lower than Betancourt.

Plus, Counsell can actually take walks. His BB percentage is 10.3%, compared to Betancourt’s 2.9% In comparison, his K% is higher as well (12% compared to 10.3%), but I’ll take the extra strikeouts if it comes with more walks.

My logic may be a bit flawed, but that’s how I see it.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 11, 2011 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

O-Contact% usually isn't that bad of thing

Because a lot of good players will just try to foul them off. Yuni does not try to foul off a pitch outside the zone that he’s swinging at.

by cwolf20 on Sep 12, 2011 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

right...

O-Miss % is worse;) Take Oswing*(1-Ocontact) and then you have a case – but that’s the opposite of what he said.

If I were to make a formula it’d be something like Suck = (5*OMiss + OBallsinPlay – OFoulwithtwostrikes)*OSwing

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 12, 2011 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

I do think all the vitriol

at Yuni is misplaced.

Every night the game thread and twitter are littered with “I Hate Yuni” comments.

It’s not his fault he’s got the contract or that RRR keeps running him out there every night.

Certain things are under his control and it would be nice if he’d learn to take some pitches, but I’m just saying that I don’t think it’s Yuni you’re pissed at.

by Nicole Haase on Sep 12, 2011 10:40 AM CDT reply actions  

I don't think anyone personally hates Yuni

I think when people say “I hate Yuni”, they really mean “I hate that Yuni is playing”.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I kind of hate Yuni.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 12, 2011 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Rec'd

That happened to me this morning

by proachinf on Sep 12, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

You're right about that.

I think the argument was more directed at RR.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 12, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

In fact, one of the lines I was going to add (but didn't)...

…was that I’m very close to either joining or founding FireRonRoencke.com if this doesn’t change.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 12, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

There is a reason youre posting and not running the organization

knee jerking and second guessing is easy to do…………..

the team is in first place still, be greatful that we have a team to watch this late into the season.

chill people

aaaaah, I gotta go!!

by b3nihana on Sep 12, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

So, when should people start getting worried?

When the Brewers are no longer in first place (not likely to happen)? Or more likely… when the Brewers fall to the #3 spot in the playoffs and have to head to Philly for the first round?

The Brewers lost 3 of 4 to a Phillies team that was without two of their starters (Utley and Rollins) at Miller Park.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

the WS goes thru Philly (most likely) anyways

so wouldn’t it be easier to win 3 against the phils than 4?

I love how yuni is the only one costing us games, he is putting up numbers that match his career totals. what do you expect? i wont miss him next year, but the alternatives are not a cure-all

what good is worrying gonna do anyways?

aaaaah, I gotta go!!

by b3nihana on Sep 12, 2011 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

I had thought about this as well

I have now come around to agreeing with it. I’d much rather have a larger chance to advance and give AZ a shot at Philly as well.

If anything, they have about as good a chance as the Brewers do to win against them. The odds the Phillies are elimnated are just as high with the Brewers and AZ, but the odds of the Brewers being eliminated are much higher playing against Philly.

by cwolf20 on Sep 12, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yuni isn't the only one costing games, just a big reason

But I agree, DM didn’t pull the trigger so we’re left with few alternatives and none of them are great.

by nullacct on Sep 12, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Blah blah blah

I think that’s irrelevant. We are pissed that he is playing. Still. The frustration is boiling over and we are saying ‘mean’ things.

by Tristram28 on Sep 12, 2011 10:55 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don’t get the hate. All of us knew what we are getting. Yuni is not a great hitter or fielder. None of this is surprising. To paraphrase a former NFL coach – He is who we thought he was.

I reserve my vitriol for one Casey Michael McGehee, who I expect and demand more from. A guy who 12 months ago was a decent 3rd baseman. And now hangs out with Betancourt in most statistical categories.

by grant76 on Sep 12, 2011 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

"not great"?

He’s the worst hitting and fielding SS in all of MLB.

The hate is that he continues to get the starting nod.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

Least

Is a pretty good description of it

by John Good on Sep 13, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

His OPS is .784 with runners in scoring position. he's even better with guys on 2nd, guys on 2nd and 3rd and in close games.

I’m not trying to claim he’s having a great year but he’s a hell of a lot more useful than Betancourt.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Sep 14, 2011 2:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

If he has a OPS of .784 with RISP

How is this statement true?

he’s even better with guys on 2nd, guys on 2nd and 3rd and in close games.

Doesn’t RISP mean with guys on 2B and 3B?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 14, 2011 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

So what you are saying is that he’d make a great pinch hitter off the bench

by grant76 on Sep 14, 2011 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Forgive them - they know not what they do ...

He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is

by WarWolf on Sep 23, 2011 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

In the 1968 World Series

the Tigers manager took his centerfielder and put him at SS so he could get Al Kaline’s bat into the lineup. The regular shortstop was Ray Oyler who hit (if you can call it that) .135 during the regular season.

Stanley had never played SS in his professional career.

Ron is not being asked to take THAT level of gamble. Just put a guy who can hit better and likely field as well if not better.

Why is that so outrageous?

by Big10freak on Sep 12, 2011 10:46 AM CDT reply actions  

This thought actually crossed my mind

I almost immediately dismissed it, bit it was still there.

by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 12, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Mine too

If nothing else, it’d be funny to watch Gomez fly around the infield. Probably funny in a “look at how hard he’s trying and he’s still not very good” way, which beats “we know he sucks but he could at least look like he’s trying.”

by placidity on Sep 13, 2011 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

Just throwing this out there because it's stuck in my head

2005 White Sox: 9.5 game lead on on Sept 4. 1.5 game lead on Sept 24. Juan Uribe at SS

And no, I’m not defending Yuni. Just find the parallels interesting

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Sep 12, 2011 11:27 AM CDT reply actions  

Parallels stop at their stat line

Uribe was an above-average defensive SS. His UZR/150 that season was 7.8.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 12, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

I find the parallels terrifying.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 12, 2011 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

infield defense

This teams infield defense is one of the worse. So far they have scored enough runs to over come it.

Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Sep 19, 2011 8:23 AM CDT reply actions  

glad Yuni will be gone next year

Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!

by storminTAZZ on Sep 19, 2011 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

I like Yuni

I am glad he will be back for many years

He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is

by WarWolf on Sep 23, 2011 6:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Dude we get it.

you like to play “that guy who supports Yuni B” But you have gone way too far over the top. At this point we know that you are just trolling for a reaction.

by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 23, 2011 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

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