Tuesday's Frosty Mug

by Kyle Lobner on Sep 13, 2011 10:31 AM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

I normally try to be a little more rational than this, but:

A) Pumpkin pie is delicious, and
B) This seems like a "break out your superstitions" time of year.

Some things to read while the pressure gets to SgtClueLs.

Actually, it's possible the pressure is getting to me lately too. The handful of you who have been around here for a long time may remember when, in 2008, I got a little superstitious regarding pumpkin pie and it made Sports Illustrated. I went back to that well yesterday and made the pie you can see on your right.

As luck would have it, the pie paid immediate dividends: The Pirates beat the Cardinals last night to drop the Brewers' magic number to single digits at nine. Once again, it looks like I'm going to need a lot of pumpkins.

Meanwhile, the team is preaching patience and encouraging fans to remain calm down the stretch. Here's Randy Wolf:

"Obviously, we're having a tough stretch right now, but the worst thing you can do is panic. I think we have a good team, and we just have to get back on track and play the kind of baseball we can play."

Miller Park Drunk would also like you to stop panicking.

Unfortunately, not all the scoreboard-watching news is good. The Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers last night to tie the Brewers for the NL's second best record. Arizona holds the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series against Milwaukee, so if the playoffs started today the Brewers would open the NLDS in Philadelphia.

On the individual front, Ryan Braun got some help last night in the race for the NL batting title. Jose Reyes went 0-for-4 to snap a 14 game hitting streak in a 3-2 loss to the Nationals and fell to .329, putting Braun back in first place at .331. Neither a Brewer or a Met has ever won a batting title.

The Brewers could help themselves tonight and tomorrow by beating the Rockies, who just finished taking two of three from the Reds. CBSSports.com has a series preview.

Another day, another note on Prince Fielder's pending free agency: Satchel Price of Beyond the Box Score has a preview of this winter's first baseman market.

Elsewhere in stuff we talk about every day: Eric Young of the San Francisco Business Journal is the latest to write a profile of Nyjer Morgan.

I think he deserves a little more credit for some of the moves he's made this season, but Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated says Doug Melvin has been baseball's sixth best GM. He ranks Kevin Towers of Arizona #1.

Elsewhere in awards: Yovani Gallardo won this week's El Super with his 3.46 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13 innings over two starts.

"Five tweets" is a pretty short timeframe, but Peace and Glove made it work in their interview with Mitch Stetter.

In power rankings:

Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk has the Brewers holding steady at fourth, and compared them to The Kinks.
Beyond the Box Score has the Brewers fifth.
FanGraphs has the Brewers holding steady at fifth.
ESPN has the Brewers sixth, down two spots.

If you have a moment this morning and you haven't taken part already, please take a moment to vote in this week's BCB Tracking Poll. It will remain open throughout the day today and results will be posted tomorrow. Also, if you have ideas for the next generation of Brew Crew Ball shirts, we're accepting those too.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Placed pitcher Jon Rauch on the DL with torn cartilage in his knee.
Marlins: Released outfielder Mike Cameron.

Today in former Brewers: Paul Molitor is the only player in major league history with 400 stolen bases, 200 home runs and 100 triples, but Johnny Damon is one steal away from joining him.

Prince Fielder still has baseball's longest home run this season at 486 feet, but that record survived a worthy challenge: Juan Francisco of the Reds became just the second player ever to clear the right field bleachers at Great American Ball Park last night (video) and Hit Tracker is estimating the ball's distance at 482 feet, four short of Fielder. It's the closest anyone has come to 486 all season.

There are 76 Venezuelan players who have appeared in a major league game this season, but it appears that pipeline is starting to dry up. the Pirates are closing their Venezuelan academy this winter, leaving just five teams in the country's summer league. You know that and much more if you've read this morning's edition of Around the NL Central.

It didn't impact the outcome of the game one way or the other, but The Good Phight has an interesting post on a run credited to Casey McGehee Friday night and whether or not it should have counted.

This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History celebrates Rickie Weeks' 29th birthday. Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that it's also the 28th anniversary of the Brewers purchasing Teddy Higuera from the Mexican League.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to making fun of you.

Drink up.

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Comments

23-32 vs winning teams

yes, it stresses me out.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 13, 2011 10:56 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Even though they are our punching bag, I choose to include Pitt in there

Had they beat us, they’d be .500+. Ups that record to 33-34

Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."

by SAE on Sep 13, 2011 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions

21-25 against the NL.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions

If the Dodgers finish above .500 raise that 25-27.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Whats the number

If you add them “as of date of game”?

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not sure.

When would you start the date? it would seem silly to start it too early. They swept the Marlins earlier this year when the were +.500 and beat up on the Pirates. They also lost to the Reds. I’m sure there’s more but honestly vs +.500 is bad way to evaluate a team.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Probably better to look at last half of season

Or even last third. Either way its still a losing record agains those “good” teams. The Braves arent doing too well either in that respect over the last third of the season. The big difference lies in percentage of games played vs the Astros and Cubs, when trying to compare strength of schedule issues vs the Braves, Phillies or D’Backs.

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions

The sample size is too small in all of these vs certain teams scenarios.

This why I think it’s a bad way to evaluate a team. Total record is all that matters. Over the course of the season quality of play fluctuates. A bad team might be a very good team for a week or a month. A good team gets cold and are awful for a 10-20 game stretch. What about injuries, did we face a team at full strength?

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions

I attempted something like that

earlier in the year. And it accounted for the Brewers missing Hart, Greinke and Lucroy for a time but not Weeks because I stopped checking after a while. But I took each box score, took “big time” type players from opposing teams who may have been on the DL, and determined that it helped the team by about 2 wins.

Now obviously missing Weeks for the past 6 weeks drops that number down a bit, but doesnt even consider the 2nd half of the season. I would guess that the same plays for any team out there. Probably all balances out. Take for example that the Brewers did not face the Phillies with Utley in the lineup all year long, while the Braves faced him probably at least 10 times. That kind of thing adds up.

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions

That kind of thing adds up.

To what, exactly?

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 13, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

roughly .3 wins above replacement

Or 3.7/88 games played x 7 games against the Brewers.

And thats just one guy from one team.

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Right, but where does that end?

There’s too many variables for this to be meaningful. Is the fact that we didn’t face Utley in seven games balanced out by the fact that the Phils didn’t see Greinke in any of the seven games, or that Hart was hurt in the first three, or that Weeks played four innings in the last four?

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 13, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions

It would be fair to discount

The Grienke – less games if due to injury, but not because they missed him in the rotation.

The absence of Hart of Weeks is definitlely a fair point, and the point I was trying to make with the prior attempt was that the Brewers were the benefactors of some lucky breaks when it came to opponents “big players” landing on the DL. Now I did not measure this for other teams, so I am not sure if this plays out as a bias or not for or against the Brewers.

(Also note that I stopped keeping track in mid June.) By that point the balance was approximately 1 additional win for the team by that measurebecause of oppenents having key players on the DL.

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions

The first three games -- in PHI --

Greinke was unavailable due to injury. He didn’t return until the DH against Atlanta two weeks later.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 13, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions

One missed start for Greinke

At the start of the season was probably worth .17 WAR

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Right, not measuring for other teams is the issue

Isn’t it pretty much common sense that teams are easier to beat when their best players are not playing?

Even if you could do all this work – who cares which team was “lucky” or not?

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Sep 13, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions

I personally do not have the time

Or resources to track down all of the data.

But it would be a very interesting study to see if there is some sort of bias there, or if there is a norm that can be measured when it comes to things like that during the course of a season.

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess I don't find it that interesting

With 162 games, it mostly evens out (unlike say, the NFL). And there are a million different things that influence the result of a game from pitching matchups to batting orders to weather and umpires. I like that about baseball.

I guess I don’t know how you’d begin to try to even measure that without any bias.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Sep 13, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

To the Vorosphone!

by backtocali on Sep 13, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions

One more point.

That same Astros team that the Brewers keep sweeping is beating other good teams they are 4-3 against the Giants and split a 4 game series against the Cards, they beat the Phillies last night. In the 2nd half Astros are 8-8 against winning opponents excluding Milwaukee. They are 0-9 against the Brewers.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Can we schedule all of next season's games against the 2nd half Astros and the 2008 Pirates?

by Brew Angel on Sep 13, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

There's still time

To win the division by 20 games.

by nullacct on Sep 13, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Luckily we're a few weeks from the regular season being irrelevant.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 13, 2011 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions

regarding that "Good Phight" post...

why wouldn’t Casey have been called out for going “out of the basepaths” when returning to the Brewer dugout? if the ump really did see his non-touch of the plate, there must be another mechanism to allow him to rule the runner out without an opposing player’s appeal?

and how is this different than that extra-innings game 163 between the Rockies and Padres a few years back, when the winning run was ruled safe despite the runner clearly never touching the plate? as evidenced by the Good Phight post, that shouldn’t have counted either, even though in that case the ump did in fact rule the runner safe….

by tdgbp on Sep 13, 2011 11:52 AM CDT reply actions

What are they talking about?

Watch the replay, then read the article again.

The odd thing is that home plate umpire Angel Hernandez clearly did notice. He never signaled for a run. In fact, he seemed to be waiting for the appeal to come from the Phillies. It never did.

The umpire clearly signals the runner is safe then points at the ball. And from that angle it could easily be argued that Casey’s left foot touches the bag before impact, however not conclusively. You can’t appeal a direct call from an ump, the whole argument is moot.

"...just throw that pill over the plate and I'll make it happen." - Tony Plush

by thefreewheelin76 on Sep 13, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow, I'm dumb

Disregard

"...just throw that pill over the plate and I'll make it happen." - Tony Plush

by thefreewheelin76 on Sep 13, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, wrong play.. But Victorino's arm is so good. Perfect throw on that play you linked to.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Sep 13, 2011 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions

The run does count unless the defense appeals.

The run would also count if Casey hit a HR and missed first base and the defense did not appeal. The onus is on the defense to see missed bases. The umpire, in this case Hernandez, signals safe so as not to clue the defense that the runner has missed the base. In this case a “safe” signal means “safe for now.”

Baseball rules are unlike any other sport. Simply reading the rules is not sufficient for understanding how to umpire a game. Understanding the history of why certain rules exist and case study of plays is necessary. Despite some people’s worry that this will lead to inconsistent umpiring, every MLB umpire would have done the same as Angel Hernandez did. The idea is to give umpires lattitude to make judgement calls. It is also why all the MLB umpires attend the same umpiring schools.

Compare that to NFL rules which describe in great detail certain situations and how to make certain calls. This detail has lead to silly calls like the Tom Brady “tuck rule” call which, by rule, was the correct call. But I have never heard one person think that it shouldn’t have been a fumble.

There are numerous examples of normal baseball calls that many people think are in the rules, but simply are not. For example, when a left handed pitcher makes a move to 1st base, I challenge anyone to find in the rule book where it says the pitcher must stride toward first within 45 degrees. It doesn’t. But that is the rule of thumb that umpires are taught.

by jimf on Sep 13, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Here's another one that will light a fire under some of the internet world.....

The batter hits a groundball in the hole at SS who throws the ball to the first baseman standing on first. If the umpire rules the batter passed first base without touching it before the throw arrived (say he is one step past when the throw gets there), he will signal SAFE.

The first baseman must tag the runner or touch the base and indicate to the umpire that he is appealing the runner missed first in order to record the out.

by jimf on Sep 13, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Interesting discussion over there

I was at the game in my regular loge (sec 216) seat. At the time, I thought that McGehee missed the plate too. No one seemed to make a big deal about it though. The Phillies seemed to think that with a 5 (now 4) run lead, they had the game well in hand, and didn’t bother to appeal. The attitude was, we’ll concede the run for the sac fly out.

The Casey McGehee Limbo graphic in the comments of the ‘Good Phight’ post is worth visiting too!

by ddloml on Sep 13, 2011 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Isn't the "out of the basepaths" rule

only applied when trying to avoid a tag?

I've spent most of my life playing softball, the rest of it I have just wasted....

by SoftballMVP on Sep 13, 2011 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions

I believe so

In addition, I think it only applies when advancing to another base.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 13, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Kyle, for some reason the mug is no longer on the front page.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 12:26 PM CDT reply actions

I noticed that too earlier today

First it was there, then it was gone.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 13, 2011 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Like Yuni's hot streak.

by Zorakathura on Sep 13, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I dont think you mean hot streak.

I think you mean the short period of time when he wasn’t the worst player in the league.

by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 13, 2011 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Francisco's home run

Yahoo’s MLB page has it listed as 502 feet and the longest of the season.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Sep 13, 2011 12:27 PM CDT reply actions

In the text, the Yahoo article does says it was revised to 482.

by Yomes on Sep 13, 2011 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

cameron released for conduct detrimental to the team

huh? i don’t know if this is covered elsewhere, but i don’t see mike engaging in detrimental conduct. maybe he tried to convince the younger players to untuck and there are a bunch of tlr fans down there.

by Capt Science on Sep 13, 2011 6:01 PM CDT reply actions

The Marlins are the Cardinals Jr.

He probably untucked his jersey within fifty yards of Jack McKeon. Instant grounds for dismissal.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 13, 2011 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Non-baseball question

Football fans, please clarify: football stats are dumb, right? Tom Brady had 500+ passing yards last night but the one play I saw he threw the ball like 8 inches and the guy returned it for 99 yards. How is that Brady’s accomplishment?

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 13, 2011 6:08 PM CDT reply actions

How dare you question the greatness that is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick!?!

That’s disrespectful to the game of football.

by Brew Angel on Sep 13, 2011 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Nah, there's pretty sweet.

Especially ones like passer rating, which show Aaron Rodgers is the greatest regular season and post season QB of all time.

Of all time.

by Archibaldcrane on Sep 13, 2011 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions

There are some attempts at smarter football stats in recent years.

Football Outsiders does a decent job.

by Zorakathura on Sep 14, 2011 1:36 AM CDT up reply actions

Brewers are my surrogate team this postseason

As an Angel fan who is just now accepting a playoff-less fate, I’m gonna me rooting for Milwaukee this post season. Honestly, it’s hard not to love this team, and they have a certain team-of-destiny feel to them.

Really, I just love Nyjer to pieces. Wrote a little something about it that you guys might be interested in. Love to hear your thoughts:

http://sonofsambowie.blogspot.com/2011/09/baseball-needs-nyjer-morgan-like-plants.html

by John Hathwell on Sep 14, 2011 2:26 PM CDT reply actions

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11