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Offense still absent as Brewers lose to Rockies 6-2

W: Kevin Millwood (3-2)
L: Shaun Marcum (12-7)

HR: Mark Ellis, Wilin Rosario

MVP: Yuni Betancourt (+.049) or this guy
LVP: Shaun Marcum (-.312)

Win Expectancy Graph



Another day, another opposing pitcher dominating the Brewers.

Things started off well enough. After Shaun Marcum tossed a scoreless inning, Corey Hart led off the Brewers half with a triple, and was immediately driven in by Nyjer Morgan's groundout to give the Brewers an early 1-0 lead.

The Crew enjoyed that lead for the next inning before the Rockies fired back. Thomas Field led off the top of the third inning with a single. Field would eventually be out at third on a Dexter Fowler fielders choice, but Fowler was allowed to make it to second because of a poorly executed run-down. The next batter, Mark Ellis, singled to drive in Fowler and tie the game. Carlos Gonzalez followed that with a home run to give the Rockies a 3-1 lead.  The Rockies would add one more in the fourth on a Wilin Rosario solo homer.

The Rockies would get two more in the fifth on a Gonzalez sac fly and a Jason Giambi RBI double. The Crew's final run was the result of a wild pitch with scored Morgan. After that the Crew really couldn't get anything going. Their best chance to score was in the bottom of the eighth, where they had runners at the corners and one out. But Prince Fielder struck out swinging and Jerry Hairston grounded out to end the inning.

The one redeeming factor of today's game was the major league debut of Michael Fiers. He pitched a scoreless ninth with two strikeouts.

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3 runs scored against Esmil Rogers and Kevin Millwood

playoffs here we come!

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Sep 14, 2011 10:33 PM CDT reply actions  

>.<

Kevin Millwood? Really?

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Sep 14, 2011 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Eh...

Not like they played great, but is a 7 H 2 BB game really the end of the world?

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 14, 2011 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Lemme just think about that for a min---AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 15, 2011 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

What's happening to Super Earth??

Now they have to find a new one :( Preferably one with more than 60% cloud cover.

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 15, 2011 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

I cannot get over how awful the Brewers' approaches at the plate have been.

It looks as though they’re trying to get out of their slump by just swinging at everything, which, of course, is the absolute worst way to get out of a slump.

Either Sveum is 1) actually coaching them to approach their at-bats like this, or 2) he’s not coaching them not to, or 3) he’s trying to coach them not to, but no one will listen. Either way, it smells like a whole lot of incompetence to me.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 14, 2011 10:39 PM CDT reply actions  

This is, in fact, entirely untrue

In the past 7 games, the Brewers have been more selective than their season average (46% vs. 46.7%). It’s their contact that’s sucked. The in-strikezone contact rate for the past 7 days has been a paltry 83.2% vs. 88.2% regular season. To put that number in context, the worst season-long in-zone contact rate is the Padres at 85.3% followed by the Mariners at 85.7%. Their out-of-strikezone contact for the past 7 days is 65.1%, lower than the 67.9% season-long rate (o-zone contact leads to weakly hit balls which means you want it lower).

The problem is that the Brewers haven’t had plate discipline, it’s been that they’ve been missing the pitches to hit. Just last night, Weeks drove a hanging breaking ball into the ground to the 2nd baseman. That’s what’s been happening.

The Brewers have also been incredibly unlucky. In the past 7 games their LD rate has been 26.5%! This compares to a September rate of 24.1% and a season 19.5%. Their overall BABIP in those same spans? 0.230, 0.278, 0.293. This is also what’s driving their HR numbers down, because the LD are coming at the expense of FB. Fewer FB means fewer HR.

Fielder leads the team regulars with a 30.6% LD rate in September tied with … Yuniesky Betancourt, of all people. Yuni’s BABIP is undeservedly .286 over that stretch, though his LD% is somewhat offset by his 40% IFFB (40% of his flyballs haven’t made it out of the infeild). Fielder, meanwhile hasn’t had a pop-up in September at all.

As much as I like to complain, this cold streak has been at least in part due to simple bad luck.

by ecocd on Sep 15, 2011 6:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thank you for using facts to refute my ramblings, though I don't think my statement was entirely untrue, as you say.

I still think their lower contact rates are at least partly a result of the fact that they’re swinging at harder-to-hit pitches (even inside the zone) while taking easier ones.

It doesn’t surprise me that their overall number of pitches swung at hasn’t changed – they’ve been doing a lot of taking 90-mph fastballs down the middle, and then flailing wildly at nasty sliders on the outside corner. (Call it the McGehee Special.) In that case, their “selectivity” is the same as a good hitter, but they’ve passed on the easy pitch to hit and decided to swing at the hard one instead. It’s an awful approach, and one that’s resulted in, as you’ve pointed out, lots more swings and misses.

I agree that the offense has been unlucky lately – often extremely so. I’m just tired of blaming luck for everything. When your team goes a week and a half without even reaching the league-average runs per game even once, they’re doing something wrong. It may not be sustainable, but that doesn’t mean it’s all luck.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 15, 2011 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

I can see your point, but it's a long season

The thing about a baseball season is that it’s 162 games long. That’s good for 147 fifteen-game streaks. If something only happens 1 out of 100 times, it’s still probably going to happen at least once during the season.

I agree that there’s often an explanation and people should look for it, but luck really does play a large role in sports and baseball more than any other features long strings of unlikely events.

I don’t have time for long analysis, unfortunately, but it wouldn’t be difficult to pull texas leaguers info on pitch type effectiveness against each player individually in September to see if they’re really swinging at some bad pitches.

by ecocd on Sep 15, 2011 9:10 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

I agree

And I think the Brewers will start to pull out of this funk before the season ends. I just don’t think “unlikely events” = “luck.” If Ryan Braun goes 0-4 with 4 K’s in a game, that’s a highly unlikely event that’s not going to be the norm going forward. But it’s also not luck – 4 K’s probably indicates that he was bad, not unlucky.

The Brewers have been abnormally unlucky at the plate over the past few weeks, but they’ve also been abnormally bad, too.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 15, 2011 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

According to GameDay...

Kershaw and Mattingly tossed. Ruh roh.

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Sep 14, 2011 10:45 PM CDT reply actions  

yeah the Diamondbacks will probably win now. The Brewers have zero luck this month.

it’s hard to have any confidence in this team right now, hopefully they can turn it around, otherwise they’ll either be 1 and done in the postseason or even worse not make it.

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Sep 14, 2011 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

As long as it stays that way. Obviously they still have a nice lead but that need to go play the Reds who they suck against and the Cubs can be tough despite how bad their season has been.

They just need to relax and stop pressing. Hopefully the Phillies will destroy the Cards and the Brewers can just chill out and start playing better baseball.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Sep 14, 2011 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm normally pretty happy about things.

Even though we already knew, hearing a direct confirmation from Prince that he was leaving sucked. Then we lost. Again. I’m sad.

by Celtin on Sep 14, 2011 10:57 PM CDT reply actions  

Eh

His chance of being back was approximately 0%. He wants to get paid, NOT by the Brewers. Nothing he hasn’t indicated before.

by bluejazz04 on Sep 14, 2011 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think it's more like

He wants to get paid, and the Brewers can’t. At least publicly, he’s never had anything bad to say about his teammates or the city of Milwaukee.

by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Sep 15, 2011 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

I want french toast.

Hyatt is the ONLY commenter on Brew Crew Ball that gets to use the Prince Fielder doughnut bat avatar. I will fight you over this.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Sep 14, 2011 11:07 PM CDT reply actions  

This is starting to really piss me off

There is zero excuse for all of this garbage. Why Yuni and McGehee are even still in the lineup is inexcusable. RRR needs to chew some ass and get some production. UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

by Mr. McGehee on Sep 14, 2011 11:32 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Uh

He gave up on Loe as his eighth-inning guy (even before K-Rod came).
He gave up on Kotsay as a center fielder (even before Hairston came).
He gave up on Gomez as a starting center fielder.
He gave up on Nieves as a backup catcher.

No idea why he hasn’t given up on Yuni yet, but RRR has shown plenty of willingness to give up on his guys.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 15, 2011 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm bothered by the lack of runs in numerous games recently...

….. but I have to admit that, honest or not, the recent struggles combined with Prince choosing this moment to say out loud he’s likely not coming back and KRod choosing this moment to restate his unhappiness about not getting the chance to close games chaps my ass.

It’s just disappointing, that’s all. I’m not suggesting they aren’t focused; I think they are. But this is a dumbass time to start talking about this crap.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 15, 2011 12:15 AM CDT reply actions  

Thursday is a day off

Aside from traveling to Cincinnati, they could use a team meeting to air shit out. Sounds like they’re all getting wound up.

by nullacct on Sep 15, 2011 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe.

I don’t know that a meeting’s even necessary. My guess is it’s not. But that doesn’t stop these comments from being idiotic in their timing. It’s particularly disappointing out of Fielder, in my opinion, since he’s long since demonstrated that he’s smart enough to avoid saying stupid things to the press.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 15, 2011 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

I hope the team meeting looks a little like

THIS

 or this

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 15, 2011 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

They should get drunk together tonight

then maybe they will be too hungover to swing at the first pitch of every AB on Friday.

Brewers:
5.5 games ahead of the Uptight Citizens Brigade
1 game ahead of the Braves for the Wild Card Safety Net
Tied with Arizona to avoid the Phils in the 1st round

by molitorfan on Sep 15, 2011 6:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

Baby mama drama

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/16176/brewers-create-drama-at-odd-time

Brewers:
5.5 games ahead of the Uptight Citizens Brigade
1 game ahead of the Braves for the Wild Card Safety Net
Tied with Arizona to avoid the Phils in the 1st round

by molitorfan on Sep 15, 2011 6:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well it’s not like he called a press conference just to announce it. I think it’s a non-issue. Prince could have had more tact but athletes aren’t politicians (insert job that actually requires being good at speaking)

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 15, 2011 1:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Brewers sideline reporter?

Definitely not!

/Telly can’t speak

Brewers:
5.5 games ahead of the Uptight Citizens Brigade
1 game ahead of the Braves for the Wild Card Safety Net
Tied with Arizona to avoid the Phils in the 1st round

by molitorfan on Sep 15, 2011 6:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yay Dodgers!

Vin Scully is so funny. “Welcome to the big leagues, young man…” (right after Jansen strikes him out, making his outing 0-4 with 4ks).

And then he ices it over with one of those “…there are many, many people in history- – many good players, I might add – - who belong to the list of those who’ve come up empty 4 times in a game…”

 
The LA/AZ game is worth watching again from the 6th inning ‘till the end if you’ve got the mlb tv. Take that, Gerardo Parra!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 15, 2011 12:27 AM CDT reply actions  

They must learn about the different facets of

“baseball offense,” and how runs are scored. If a Brewer runs up to a coach with a question where do babies runs come from?, it would indicate that it is a good time to explain these things to every Brewer.

These are the facts of life, and learning about offense would help in those high-risk/high-reward situations down the road… like the dangerous experimentation with substances and intoxication from sunflower seeds. And then, there is the First-Pitch-Swing epidemic*

  • = studies show the FPS epidemic may lead to widespread Betancourt!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 15, 2011 1:11 AM CDT reply actions  

Watching the replay at this point...

Just listening to BA, you can just hear his displeasure after some at bats. There was a point were he was beside himself that they couldn’t score off Kevin Millwood.

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Sep 15, 2011 1:14 AM CDT reply actions  

Did you hear them talk about McGehee as the game was about to

start? I was really happy Rock said he didn’t think that Casey making contact for one or two games and collecting some hits and etc… provided enough evidence that he was making progress.

I’m sort of getting tired, and really can’t re-create what he said at this point.

Since you are watching the replay, though, I’m guessing you probably know what part I’m talking about. It’s just refreshing to know that, behind all of the “Casey’s starting to swing the bat again” crud we here anytime he hits the ball and it’s in fair territory and he’s reached base safely… that it doesn’t mean **it.

I don’t know that this would happen, but maybe some of the disgust evident in the play-by-play/commentary for this game will get someone’s attention.

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 15, 2011 1:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah - it's probably better to wait, or you'll

find yourself hitting the “post” button at 7 am! I’m just talking from my own experience with making the magical maps/charts/diagrams, but doesn’t it seem like 4 or 5 hours can go by easily when you’re having fun working on an awesome chart?

The Jamie Moyer Historic Pitches (some so slow, they have not landed) is a project I just can’t wrap my head around, yet. It would have to start probably in the late 1700’s, and would probably work best if separated by region. One of them would have been caught by Solomon Juneau, probably.

*Over all of this, I need to determine if these slow pitches would have been strikes or not. Maybe it’d be better in a game format with maps. Errrrr

Have a good night! Braun probably checked Graffito for structural damage 2 nights ago after fouling off all of those pitches before the walk-off!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 15, 2011 2:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Since the Mets basically paid Krods remainder of this year out what does that make the Brewers effective payroll?

They started the year at 83 Million. Last year they had a 90 Million payroll. Mark A admitted at some point that the team lost some (although I don’t believe a lot) money in 2010 with a 90 Million dollar payroll and 2.77 Million fans… I have to imagine that this team which will draw 3+Million fans and have a lower payroll and probably also draw a few million in playoff revenue will turn Mark A a tiddy little profit this year…

I think I also read that last year the team only lost money because they were paying debt off faster than originally planed and thus this year should look even better…

Streak Breakers.com

by Flanyboy on Sep 15, 2011 3:07 AM CDT reply actions  

Accounting money isn't like real money

Who knows what kind of payroll restrictions Melvin had this season. That’s still my working theory on why Yuni even made it to Spring Training.

by ecocd on Sep 15, 2011 9:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

3 million

They only have to average over 31,023 in each of the last six home games to break that mark.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 15, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

The team has a 5.5 game lead on September 15

It was 10 games on August 28. This core of players has an established history of fading, at least in early September.

We should enjoy the off day, regardless, but in context things aren’t as rosy as they are on the surface.

by ecocd on Sep 15, 2011 9:20 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

^This

I am really counting on the Phillies to take the series from the Cardinals. I don’t care what anyoe says, the Brewers can use all the help they can get right now.

I’m actually a bit concerned that all these off days are doing more harm than good personally.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Sep 15, 2011 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Actually, I think some guys could use some additional days off.

Particularly McGehee and Betancourt.

It’s obvious that McGehee isn’t able to work things out by “playing through it”, so I think Green should at least get a couple starts at 3B to let McGehee clear his head.

I would even consider going as far as having them platoon the rest of the season.

That would accomplish two things:

1. Give them a power bat off the bench (McGehee).
2. Give Green some more playing time so that if he’s on the playoff roster, he’ll actually be able to contribute. Having him get only one PA against a MLB pitcher a handful of times a week isn’t going to prepare him for the post-season.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 15, 2011 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

The last time Yuni got 2 days off in a row

He turned into a serviceable major leaguer for a month.

Why not try again?

by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 15, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't count McGehee as a power threat off the bench.

Historically he hasn’t been a huge power hitter, this year especially.

"People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."- Rogers Hornsby

by icecreamman on Sep 15, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

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