Around the NL Central: September 17 Edition

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 17, 2011 9:30 AM CDT in Conversation Starters

News:

If Reds first baseman Joey Votto had an MVP vote, he claims he would give it to Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp. Votto, an MVP candidate himself, declined to answer where he would rank himself.

Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata, whom Pittsburgh recently signed to a long term contract, is out for the season due to a broken bone in his hand. Tabata hasn't played since September 5.

Yesterday's Games:

The Brewers beat the Reds 6-3. You can find our recap here.

The Cubs beat the Astros 4-3 in twelve innings. Carlos Lee managed to tie the game 3-3 for Houston in the ninth inning as he launched a massive 368 foot home run to left field, plating Jordan Schafer. Lee was 3-5 overall in the game, and contributed two homers overall. For the Cubs, Geovany Soto hit a homer and Aramis Ramirez picked up three hits, including a triple. Matt Garza was great, giving up just one run through eight innings before giving up the homer in the ninth.

The Cardinals beat the Phillies 4-2 in eleven innings. Both teams scored one run in the second inning with the Cards tacking on a second in the eighth and the Phillies tying it in the ninth. St. Louis would have the last laugh, though, as they scored two in the eleventh inning to pick up the win. Albert Pujols was 4-4 with two walks and Yadier Molina went 2-5 with a solo homer. Jaime Garcia had a very good outing, allowing just one run in seven innings.

The Pirates lost to the Dodgers 2-7. Not really much of note for Pittsburgh in this game. A couple two hit games, an Alex Presley homer, and a short outing from Jeff Locke.

Updated Standings:

	W	L	GB	Last 10	Streak	Elimination #
Brewers	88	63	--	4-6	W1	--
Cardinals	82	68	5.5	8-2	W3	7
Reds	74	77	14.0	5-5	L1	Done
Pirates	68	83	20.0	3-7	L1	Done
Cubs	66	85	22.0	5-5	W1	Done
Astros	51	99	36.5	4-6	L2	Done

The Wild Card race looks like this right now:

	W	L	GB	Last 10	Streak
Brewers*	88	63	--	4-6	W1
Braves	86	65	2.0	4-6	L1
Cardinals	82	68	5.5	8-2	W3
Giants	81	70	7.0	7-3	W
Dodgers	74	76	13.5	6-4	W1

And here are the playoff participants, if the season ended today:

	W	L	GB	Last 10	Streak
Phillies (East)	97	51	--	6-4	L1
Brewers (Central)	88	63	10.0	4-6	W1
D-Backs (West)	87	64	11.0	6-4	L2
Braves (Wild Card)	86	65	12.0	4-6	L1

Today's Matchups:

Henry Sosa (2-4, 5.02) and Rodrigo Lopez (5-6, 5.04) do battle as the Astros and Cubs face off.

Jake Westbrook (12-8, 4.61) takes the mound for the Cardinals as they play the Phillies and Roy Oswalt (7-9, 3.88).

Yovani Gallardo (16-10, 3.66) is pitching for the Brewers and is up against Edinson Volquez (5-5, 5.80) and the Reds.

For the Pirates, it's James McDonald (9-8, 4.09) pitching against the Dodgers and Ted Lilly (9-14, 4.39).

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Continuing a discussion from yesterday

I was thinking about the people who mentioned they were hoping the Cards took the wild card away from the Braves. I was going to write a response last night, but figured I’d give it a little time to think about it some more. I woke up today with the same feeling (though it may not be the most popular). I don’t want the Cardinals in the playoffs. I don’t think they’ve earned it this year. And what’s more, they (and here I mean TLR, Carpenter and God himself) need to be taken down a peg. Getting to the playoffs in a year when they can (and will) say things like “Just imagine how good we’d have been if we had Wainwright”. I like St. Louis fans, and don’t really mind or even care about the rest of the team (does anyone?)…but even if it’s petty, I don’t want them there. I think the Cards/ Braves are pretty much a wash talent-wise, so I don’t particularly fear facing the Braves any more than the Cardinals. I’m sure I’m in the minority on this and welcome counter-opinions.

The only thing I could really see that would make it worth it was knocking out the notion that the NL Central is a collection of the worst in the division. Yes, they happen to have 3 or 4 of the worst teams over the last few years, but they’ve also had a couple of the best. I feel like the reputation of the NL Central is weighted more heavily towards the bad teams and the good teams don’t get much notice. If the central took the wild card, that’d help things…for like a minute…in the eyes of national baseball.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Sep 17, 2011 11:26 AM CDT reply actions

I don't want the Cardinals to make the playoffs

But I don’t really care about the NL Central’s reputation or what the Cardinals fans will be able to claim.

My reason is simple: I don’t want anything good to happen to a team that employs Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Yadier Molina. Ever.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 17, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions

I couldn't agree more.

by Wisfan on Sep 17, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions

That is first and foremost, yes

By the way, the first sentence in the second paragraph should have said “…a collection of the worst in the national league”. That’s probably obvious enough.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Sep 17, 2011 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I will be utterly disgusted if Matt Kemp wins MVP over Braun

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 1:08 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Really?

Kemp has been really good.

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 17, 2011 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Braun has been better in every way.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions

That isn't true.

by cwolf20 on Sep 17, 2011 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Anything that’s remotely reliable, sure he has.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I mean, I think Braun should win it.

But I don’t think it would be outlandish for Kemp to get the award.

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 17, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions

I don’t think Braun is a lock, e.g. Votto is actually leading the NL in fWAR, but Braun and Kemp are having very similar seasons with the only differences being 1) Braun’s stats are much better across the board, 2) Kemp plays bad defense at a slightly harder position, 3) Kemp has more PA

Should PA and where the manager decides to play the guy decide the MVP race when one guy has a significant advantage in every objective offensive stat? I don’t think PA should decide the race; once you have a pool of players who have played enough to qualify for everything, look at who was actually the most valuable when he played. That’s clearly Braun.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

And since I doubt Votto and other commentators are look at fWAR, what are they basing Kemp over Braun on? Braun’s OPS is 35 points higher.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

More homers, more RBI, more stolen bases?

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 17, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Not that I'm saying that's a good way to look at it, of course.

by Noah Jarosh on Sep 17, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess

To me it seems like some people just like Kemp better than Braun so they decided a long time ago that they’re going to back Kemp.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think you're right that that might be a factor

I also wonder if (baseless speculation alert) a lot of Kemp supporters, especially in the online baseball world, are going to give the edge to Kemp if he and Braun are at all close as a way of rebelling against the old-school “MVP has to come from a winning team” mindset.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 17, 2011 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Honestly, I don't think either of those will play big roles

I think if Kemp wins the MVP, it will be because he has better counting stats (HR, SB) and the myth of quality defense in center. Braun has been the best offensive player in the NL (and only Bautista in the AL has been better), but you have to look past counting numbers to see that. The biggest differences in their candidacy in my eyes is durability (which is reasonable, you add more value to a team if you play more games) and defense (Braun is further below average at an easier defensive position).

by dtmeyers on Sep 17, 2011 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

So now pundits won’t even look at AVG/OBP/SLG? :(

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions

They will

but they both get on base at the same rate and Braun’s extra power comes from doubles and triples, not home runs, which is typically something that is not rewarded. Even if you think the gap in homeruns is not significant (which I do – its almost entirely a function of PA’s). In the same way, the difference in stolen bases is largely a function of opportunity. Matt Kemp has been on first 183 times to Brauns’ 157. Braun has also been the more efficient base stealer (83% vs 80%). Basically, I agree with you that Braun has been the better player, but think Matt Kemp will win the MVP because his counting numbers are better and his defense is overrated at a premium position.

by dtmeyers on Sep 17, 2011 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions

I could see PA working the other way around

If you’re looking at who’s added the most value for their team, it’s tough to add any value when you’re not on the field. So more PA could very well be an asset for Kemp, not a liability.

I could see it going either way, but voters may well see “durability” as an advantage for Kemp over Braun.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 17, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd be annoyed

Merely because when Braun and Fielder have had amazing seasons, part of the reason they didn’t do better in MVP voting was because they weren’t in the playoffs. While it’s a stupid criteria, if they’re going to apply it when it hurts the Brewers, they should apply it when it helps too.

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Sep 18, 2011 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions

Braun would love to have a season like Kemp

After Prince is no longer hitting behind him.

by nullacct on Sep 17, 2011 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions

Do you really think that matters?

I think that’s a total myth…

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I don’t even get the argument. Is it that pitchers think “I’m going to give Braun a lot of good pitches to hit because I’m afraid of Fielder!” (?!) and that, even if that thought process existed in some parallel universe, it would outweigh more tangible situations like “I’m just going to walk Fielder because he’s followed by a horrible hitter”?

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Ryan Braun has 2 IBB, Matt Kemp has 24 IBB. wOBA already weighs OBP significantly more than SLG. Braun’s wOBA is 24 points higher and his OBP is 2 points higher. I think Kemp’s situation is helping him just fine.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

If you remove his PA resulting in IBB, Kemp’s OBP drops 24 points and his wOBA drops something like 27 points. And that’s not even counting the non-intentional extra walks/HBP he must be drawing. He would need to be missing out on quite a few extra home runs to make up that difference…

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Most wOBA calculations don't count IBBs.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 17, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok, maybe not directly. The 1.000 OBP over those 22 PA have certainly helped his SB though.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions

That's interesting btw, I didn't realize that.

So Barry Bonds had a .538 wOBA in ’04 without factoring in the extra 120 IBB he drew? * Head Explodes *

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions

(Sorry to keep spamming this thread)

That’s also worth noting when comparing Bonds and Ruth. All of Ruth’s IBB (assuming he had a bunch too) weren’t recorded as such and thus he gets the full benefit of his IBB in his career wOBAs while Bonds doesn’t.

That’s got to make Bonds far and away the highest career fWAR of all time, right? Assuming we included IBB.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions

"Head Explodes"

So did his.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 17, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Aw, come on. Even at it’s largest, his head was only 0.7 Mench Units big.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Depends where you get your wOBA from.

That is the one big drawback of the stat. It may or may not include certain occurrences depending on where you get it from. It also may or may not be park adjusted depending on where you get it from.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 17, 2011 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I only ever see it on Fangraphs

Then again, the only two sites I look at are Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I use Fangraphs also.

They don’t include IBB but I think they include SB and CS. Some don’t.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 18, 2011 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with the conclusion that Kemp's situation is benefitting him just fine (if in different ways)...

… but I don’t think it’s a complicated argument regarding Braun getting a benefit from having Fielder behind him. I don’t think they try to give Braun a lot of pitches to hit, but I do think it means they try to pitch around him less, and that likely helps his power numbers. Like Kemp’s OBP benefits from all the IBB since he has no protection in the lineup.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 17, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, Matt Kemp: 45.6%
Percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, Ryan Braun: 41.9%

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions

So what?

The point isn’t (or at least my point isn’t) that he sees more strikes than Kemp, it’s that he sees more hittable pitches than he would if he didn’t have Fielder behind him. Anyway, not all strikes are created equal.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 17, 2011 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

So we need to compare the Nasty Factor of all the pitches they've faced.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 17, 2011 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Ideally, yeah.

Is that a ridiculous proposition? Yes.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 17, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Pitchers know that you get different hitters out differently

by nullacct on Sep 17, 2011 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions

And one of the few objective stats we have to measure that is Zone%. I would imagine pitches in the zone and “hittable” pitches are pretty much directly correlated.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Probably true...

… but I probably shouldn’t have poked my nose in this conversation, because I’m not trying to suggest that Kemp has it any harder than Braun does.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 17, 2011 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Interesting speculation about the Cubs GM vacancy

This article says that the Cubs maybe interested in Walt Jocketty to fill the opening and that (and this is almost too good to be true) he would want the one and only TLR to become the next manager.
It also notes that this might make a certain 1st baseman more interested in signing (although I think that will come down to who is willing to give him the most money)

by Saltire on Sep 17, 2011 2:15 PM CDT reply actions

Cubs are going to give Pujols a 15-year contract and he’s going to immediately turn into Carlos Pena with a goatee.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Sep 17, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11