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What Happened to Nyjer Morgan: Revisited

 

When the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Nyjer Morgan from the Washington Nationals for single-A outfielder, Cutter Dykstra, Morgan was coming off of a down year in which he was branded as a legitimate head case.  He steamrolled a few catchers in blowout games, he missed a catch and threw his glove into the stands, he charged the mound and threw some punches at Chris Volstad, and he was even accused of throwing a ball at a fan.

Needless to say, Morgan was becoming a problem, and Washington was ready to run him out of town. 

Even if we push his personality issues aside, Morgan still had a less than stellar 2010 campaign.  Entering the season, he was a career .302 hitter.  In 2010, he hit just .253.  He was clearly a player who lost his way, and it was easy to see why Doug Melvin might want to take him on as a reclamation project.  Especially since the Brewers were ready to run Carlos Gomez, he of the wiffle bat, onto the field every day.  So I set out to see what Nyjer’s problem was at the plate, and what he could do to correct it. 

In April I wrote this piece and basically surmised that Morgan’s BABIP dropped 50 points because, at least partially because, he was swinging at far more pitches outside of the zone than he had in years’ past. 

Star-divide

He only had a 5% uptick in his O-Swing rate, probably not enough to account for a 50-point drop in BABIP.  However, swinging at bad pitches can certainly result in more outs, sparking a drop in BABIP.  Swinging at pitches outside of the zone could theoretically cause a player to feel lost at the plate and eventually lose his swing, snowballing into a bad offensive year.

Since then, Doug Melvin has been proved himself to be an oracle, and Morgan has built a cult-like following in the city of Milwaukee.  He literally went from being seen as a certifiably crazy, underachieving, clubhouse cancer, to a .300-hitting clubhouse favorite who just happens to be a focal point of the team’s marketing campaign.

I finished the April article with, "if he wants to return his batting average to .300 as a Brewer, he’s going to need to lay off of pitches outside the zone."  Since then, Morgan has restored his BABIP to a career-best .364, and his AVG to .306.  So I took a look to see if laying off of bad pitches is indeed what happened in 2011, only to find that he’s actually been swinging at an extra 4% of pitches outside the zone.  He’s also been swinging at more pitches in the zone, and making better contact with all pitches.

Now, there’s a difference between being wrong, and simply not being right.  Sometimes that difference is obvious, and sometimes there is a thin, cloudy line to be toed.  In this case, by saying that he has to improve his plate discipline, even though I conceded that it was only part of the problem, I was completely wrong.

But what was the problem?  After digging a little deeper, I noticed that Ron Roenicke’s strict righty/lefty platoon in Center Field has resulted in only 45 plate appearances vs. LHP for Morgan.  That’s just 11% of the time.  Last season, Morgan faced Lefties 26% of the time.Nyjergraph2-1_medium

 

For a guy who has hit .202/.290/.561 vs. LHP, and .310/.362/.765 vs. RHP (AVG/OBP/OPS), it’s easy to see how Doug Melvin might have envisioned a bounceback year for Morgan.  It’s even easier to accept that a platoon is the correct usage of a player like Nyjer Morgan, especially when a team has a defensive phenom like Carlos Gomez holding down the other end of the platoon.

Morgan is certainly having more fun this year, and maybe that’s helped his hitting.  Or maybe he’s having more fun because he’s been hitting better.  Either way, he probably wouldn’t be hitting nearly as well, or having nearly as much fun if he wasn’t being used in a platoon.

 

 

 

Comment 83 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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To bad Kotsay really can't hit RHP.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 19, 2011 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rec'd

For the first substantive defense of Kotsay I’ve seen in quite a while. Since late June or so, he hasn’t been half bad, given his role.

by Cheeseandcorn on Sep 20, 2011 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

That is a very long and well thought out post.

In my opinion if you have to slice and dice stats to paint a good picture of a guy he really isn’t all that good to begin with. I think Mat Gamel would be a better bench option. I know we can slice his MLB stats up and prove he is good or bad but I think he is a more talented hitter. Kotsay is having a good streak much like Yuni did earlier this year and his recent performance is probably no more of an indication of his talent than Yuni in July was.

I also abhor the “he is average for a MLB bench player.” We should not settle for average.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 20, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

As I recall several months ago someone proved that Kotsay was as good or better than 90% of 4th OFers

Even on many playoff bound teams. You’re not going to have a guy like Braun waiting on your bench. I would go so far as to say that Kotsay is good for the role he is playing now.

It makes sense to “slice and dice” his stats because at the start of the year he was not being used properly. He’s an old man and could not perform with that much playing time wearing him down, or maybe he was just off to a slow start. Kotsay has shown an overall trend of improvement in his performances, not a short-lived spike like Yuni, (Kotsay was pretty good in July, and has been definitively good in August and September).

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
April/March   17 13 57 49 1 13  1  0  0   5  0  0  8  4 .265 .368 .286  .654 14   1   0  0  0   3   1  .289    91    88
May           22 12 56 50 2 11  4  0  0   2  2  0  6  6 .220 .304 .300  .604 15   1   0  0  0   0   0  .250    75    72
June          14  6 31 31 1  6  1  0  0   2  1  0  0  8 .194 .194 .226  .419  7   0   0  0  0   0   0  .261    21    19
July          20 11 54 52 6 14  0  1  2  11  0  0  1  6 .269 .278 .423  .701 22   0   0  0  1   0   1  .267   100    93
August        16  4 29 26 5 10  2  0  0   4  0  0  3  1 .385 .448 .462  .910 12   1   0  0  0   0   0  .400   163   150
Sept/Oct      12  2 18 18 2  7  4  0  1   6  0  0  0  2 .389 .389 .778 1.167 14   1   0  0  0   0   0  .400   230   212

Gamel probably has more power, but that doesn’t make him a better bench option overall.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree

He functions just fine as a 5th defensive OF/PH. If he touches the field except in an emergency situation, it’s a problem though.

by cwolf20 on Sep 20, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Of course you are not going to get a guy like Braun for your bench. Who said we would?

There are many many levels of hitters between the two who would help us and be better then Kotsay though.

Kotsay’s overall numbers on the year are pretty much in line with how he would be expected to hit. The overall trend you point to is still under 100 PA or about one month’s worth of stats for a starter. I doubt that is much of an indication of what we should expect going forward. He wasn’t as bad as he started out and I doubt he is as good as those numbers suggest. He is probably still under a .700 OPS guy going forward.

Has Kotsay been okay or average on the year? Sure he has. That still doesn’t explain why we should accept a lesser hitter.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 20, 2011 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

We should accept Kotsay because the payroll is < $90 M

He’s earned his contract by WAR calculations if I understand other people correctly. So you either want the Brewers to pay for a better pinch hitter (not going to happen), or you want them to play one of the minor leaguers (no guarantee they will succeed in a part time role).

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Gamel would not have cost much of anything over a month plus.

Less than $100,00. It would also have had little or no overall effect on his service time.

There is no guarantee Kotsay will succeed going forward either. Sure we have a better idea what to expect from Kotsay but that sets the bar pretty low.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 20, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks, I think...

Compliment in the subject line, dissenting opinion in the post. Interesting tactic.

I’m not sure I see where you say I am “slicing and dicing stats” here – I quoted his full season numbers, his numbers as a PH, and his numbers since July. All are directly relevant to the argument I made. That’s not exactly like quoting OPS versus RHP whose last name starts with H during day games.

Yuni’s hot streak was a few weeks long (granted, in lots of ABs since he starts nearly every day) – Kotsay’s “hot streak” is 3 months long (granted, in sporadic usage, but that’s the definition of “bench player”). Not the same thing at all.

I think it’s entirely possible that Mat Gamel is a more talented hitter than Kotsay. He has not proven, in numerous chances, that he can hit worth a lick at the Major League level. I still believe that, unless a better option or a resigned Fielder is available, Gamel should be given a shot to be the everyday starting 1B in 2012. However, as a bench bat in 2011, he has not proven that he can be any better (and in fact, could be significantly worse) than Kotsay. What any of us BELIEVE regarding Gamel’s talent or ability is immaterial to a team going into the playoffs. I think that had Gamel done ANYTHING when the team brought him up in June and not obviously turned off people in the Brewers management (Don Money, maybe others), he’d be on the roster right now as a bench bat. However, he did not take advantage of that opportunity, so the team looked elsewhere (Taylor Green, etc).

Finally, I’m glad that you don’t want to settle for average. That fits in well with my point that Kotsay has been well above league average. Other than that, though, it strikes me as a great motto for a Dilbert cartoon or an Upper Management training course, but not very practical in a real-world sense.

by JLHanke on Sep 20, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

All are directly relevant to the argument I made. That’s not exactly like quoting OPS versus RHP whose last name starts with H during day games.

When you break down batting lines into that small of a sample you end up with all sorts of results. They are less predictive than his career batting line or taking the last few years for example. They tell what he has done and are not generally a good indication of what he will do.

As to why Gamel isn’t up, I don’t really know. I think a large part of it is the manager just feels comfortable with Kotsay. It fits right in with his MO on Yuni and McGehee. Let the less talented more familiar player play. I won’t dispute there is something else going on with Gamel behind the scenes. I just don’t know but I believe unless Gamel came up and hit like Lawrie has he would have still been sent back down. Look at what Green had to do to take some playing time from McGehee and how fast he was sent back to the bench after a few bad games. The manager has his guys and he sticks with them which I think is admirable when you are developing young players but really stinks when you are trying to win playoff games.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 20, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Gamel

You do have a good point with Gamel – he probably would have needed to really rip it up in that one June/July week to stick. I agree that he probably got on the wrong side of some people in the Brewers management, otherwise it really doesn’t make sense for him not to at least be on the bench this September (if not October).

When it comes down to it, I think we just differ a bit on what we’d like to see from our bench players. I, personally, think Kotsay is a little “safer” pinch-hitter/bench player than Gamel right now, so I’d go with that going into October. He definitely does not have the upside that Gamel does, though – and if I’m reading right, you would go with the upside/expected future performance argument and take Gamel. I can buy that, even if I disagree somewhat.

We can at least agree that Yuni sucks, though, right?

by JLHanke on Sep 21, 2011 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

this made me feel better about kotsay.

now do one for yuni to make us ALL feel better.

i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!

by sowingwildoats on Sep 20, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hmm....

He’s hit better than Counsell this year and he’s been slightly better in the field (by UZR/150) than Braun was a 3B his rookie year???

Yeah, that’s all I got….

by JLHanke on Sep 21, 2011 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

To be fair

OK, more than slightly better than Braun’s rookie year at third: -41.5 UZR/150 pretty much breaks the scale.

by JLHanke on Sep 21, 2011 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

I sure hope that Plush and Gomez are friends

Because separate they are a problem, but playing together they are a damn awesome tandem.

by nullacct on Sep 19, 2011 3:16 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

Rec'd just for the picture of Harry Doyle....

Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle

by reverse24 on Sep 20, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

If it was a picture of Harry Doyle

Shouldn’t that be an Indians hat instead of a Brewers hat?

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 20, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Doyle never wore a hat.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Sep 20, 2011 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

So is Thursday still the expected day of arrival for Pt. I of The Yuni Files?

I can’t wait! It’ll be like getting a gift from someone for doing absolutely nothing!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I suppose you're right...

I didn’t have to do anything on the day I was born! Except say waahhhh waahhh

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm imagining something like Pinky and the Brain. Gomez and the Plush.

“One is a speedster, the other’s insane”

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Plush, are you pondering what I'm pondering?"

“I think so Gomez, but where are we going to find enough kites to make a mid-air production of Finding Nemo?”

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

With the way you have Gomez = The Brain and Morgan = Pinky

Shouldn’t it be Plush and the Gomez instead of Gomez and the Plush?

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 20, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

"The Plush" sounds better.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Zort!

(fjord!)

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

He literally went from being seen as a certifiably crazy, underachieving, clubhouse cancer, to a certifiably crazy .300-hitting player.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Sep 19, 2011 9:49 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

It would be awesome if

Morgan slugged .561 against LHP and .765 vs RHP. Sadly, though, those are the OPS numbers you quoted in the slash line, not the SLG numbers. Plush’s career slash lines should be .202/.289/.271 vs LHP and .310/.363/.402 vs RHP.

Great post on this, though.

Usually a platoon is something worthy of complaining about, but this is definitely an exception. It’s easily forgotten since he’s so terrible against RHPs, but Gomez is certainly holding up his end of the platoon reasonably well, and not just with his glove. His 2011 slash line against LHPs is .273/.289/.523. Obviously, in a perfect world, he’d have more than 2 walks in 92 PAs against lefties, but 5 HRs and 11 extra-base hits in 92 PAs is not too shabby. If you combine the strictly platooned numbers for Plush (against RHP) and CarGo (against LHP), you get the following amalgamation: .307/.352/.462 with 6 triples, 9 HRs, 42 RBIs, and around 79 runs scored (that stat is usually not bookkept for the splits because pitchers can be removed while a runner is on base).

I don’t really know how to calculate WAR or wOBA or anything, but I’ll take that production out of a CF anyday!

by JLHanke on Sep 20, 2011 9:31 AM CDT reply actions  

But OPS is in the slash line.

Its the last 2 figures

Hyatt is the ONLY commenter on Brew Crew Ball that gets to use the Prince Fielder doughnut bat avatar. I will fight you over this.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Sep 20, 2011 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well done, sir

Everyone can now take a screenshot of me saying this:

I WAS COMPLETELY WRONG ABOUT NYJER MORGAN BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED. I WOULD NOT RATHER HAVE CHRIS DICKERSON NOW.

Hey, win some lose some.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 3:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Holy crap, CM admitted he was wrong

I’m pretty sure it got a lot colder in hell today.

:)

by cwolf20 on Sep 20, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

To be fair, its not the first time

but I’m sure there are some people that will take smug satisfaction out of me boldly admitting it.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Aw, did you leave an open bold tag?

I think you left an open bold tag.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Sep 20, 2011 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

what are you talking about

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh

I must have missed that

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Better than leaving an open italics or strikethrough tag

Also, no, I did not just do that.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Sep 20, 2011 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here

I close it for you

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

The bold replies remind me of that horrible Staples commercial

from last year!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why won’t the bold ever end?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

It all started with the typographist, who proclaimed...

“HERE’s a way we can exaggerate words! Thick, heavy type!” (Shortly thereafter, all of the typographists celebrated by printing very sassy things)

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

....

Is there a way I could have un-bolded the part in italics and parentheses? That was not supposed to be emboldened

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I can't de-activate it. Does it have to do with this particular thread?

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Sep 20, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Charlie there failed to close his bold tag in html, so now everything is screwed up.

Or maybe everybody is very angry about Yuni starting again.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

YAY. I fixed it.

See, iz normal.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Sep 20, 2011 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, it took me 9300 comments to finally do this

so I guess that’s a pretty good record.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Sep 20, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

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