NPB Position Players

by SRB on Jan 17, 2012 8:08 PM CST

Q: Is it true that NPB position players coming to MLB have all been busts other than Ichiro?

A: No!

Player	Position	Age	Posting	Contract	3 Yr fWAR	3 Yr PA	3 Yr Value	1st Yr fWAR	3 Yr Net Val.	$5M/W Val.
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	27	$13M	3/$14M	+16.2	2191	$42.7M	6.1	+$16M	$81M
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	OF	29	FA	3/$2.5M	+3.4	960	$8.5M	2.0	+$5M	$17M
So Taguchi	OF	33	FA	3/$3M	+1.5	284	$4.3M	1.7	+$1M	$7.5M
Hideki Matsui	OF/DH	28	FA	3/$21M	+6.0	2079	$19.6M	0.2	-$1M	$30M
Kazuo Matsui	SS/2B	28	FA	3/$20M	+1.0	1069	$3.4M	0.4	-$17M	$5M
Tadahito Iguchi	2B	30	FA	3/$5M	+6.8	1742	$25.1M	3.4	+$20M	$34M
Norihiro Nakamura	3B	31	???	1/$0.5M^	-0.4	41	-$1.2M	N/A	-$2M	$0M
Kenji Johjima	C	29	FA	3/$16.5M	+5.3	1464	$20.7M	2.9	+$4M	$26.5M
Akinori Iwamura	2B/3B	28	$4.5M	3/$7.7M	+6.6	1562	$25.5M	2.7	+$13M	$33M
Kosuke Fukudome	OF	30	FA	4/$48M	+5.8	1622	$25.4M	1.6	-$24M	$29M
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	SS	26	$5M	3/$9M	-1.4	240	-$6.2M	N/A	N/A	N/A
Norichika Aoki	OF	30	$2.5M	???	???	???	???	???	???	???

This is looking at NPB position player productivity over their first three seasons and/or the life of their initial MLB contract. Things to note: So Taguchi was handled weird (the Cardinals kept him in the minors for a few years) and for a variety of reasons his numbers may not be a very useful comparison; Norihiro Nakamura was signed on a minor league deal and only had a cup-of-coffee in the majors, so ignore his numbers; Tsuyoshi Nishoka was horrible last season but he's relatively young and was injured so it's very possible he turns things around and earns his contract; Hideki Matsui would have been worth much more if the Yankees hadn't stubbornly kept him in the OF (including CF) where he totaled more than -50 UZR (roughly -5 WAR) over his first three seasons; Kaz Matsui was similarly bad at SS (-12 UZR) before he was moved to 2B where he struggled with injuries, but he later had some very solid seasons in Colorado and Houston.

If you ignore the players who barely played (<300 PA) and adjust for a more realistic 2012-14 Dollar/WAR of $5M, the average production over their first three years in MLB for NPB position players has been worth $31,900,000. If you throw out Ichiro for being a robot, the average production drops to "just" $24,900,000 over their first three seasons, but that's including Hideki Matsui lumbering around CF for some reason. If you throw out the high (Ichiro) and the low (Kaz Matsui), the average 3-year production has been $28,250,000.

Q: Did Doug Melvin pay Norichika Aoki anywhere close to $25M-$32M?

A: Doubtful! Ask again later.

Q: Were all of these players way better than Aoki?

A: No! Career stats at time of NPB->MLB jump:

Player	Position	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Ichiro Suzuki	3B/OF	0.353	0.434	0.522	0.956	0.420
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	OF	0.249	0.307	0.422	0.729	0.315
So Taguchi	OF	0.277	0.334	0.387	0.721	0.318
Hideki Matsui	OF/DH	0.304	0.413	0.569	0.982	0.424
Kazuo Matsui	SS/2B	0.309	0.361	0.486	0.847	0.367
Tadahito Iguchi	2B	0.271	0.349	0.471	0.820	0.355
Kenji Johjima	C	0.299	0.360	0.517	0.877	0.376
Akinori Iwamura	3B/2B	0.300	0.366	0.519	0.885	0.380
Kosuke Fukudome	OF	0.305	0.389	0.542	0.931	0.401
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	SS	0.293	0.364	0.426	0.790	0.348
Norichika Aoki (pre-2011)	OF	0.336	0.411	0.472	0.883	0.390
Norichika Aoki (post-2011)	OF	0.336	0.401	0.454	0.855	0.379

By "wOBA" I just mean a rough estimate using the formula: (OBP*1.75+SLG)/3

Obviously Ichiro is the best, but one could argue that Aoki is third best or even second best, factoring in defense and the fact that NPB used a different ball pre-2011. It's important to note that the main thing that seems not to translate is power and SLG. Fukudome was a slugger in Japan; his OBP did not actually fall that much when he jumped to the states, relatively speaking, but his SLG plummeted.

Q: Did Aoki have a poor 2011 in Japan?

A: Yes, so what!

Q: Only three players on that list have a career .400+ OBP: Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, and Aoki. Is one of these players near the prime of his career and currently on the Milwaukee Brewers?

A: Yes!

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Comments

To me, the key factor is Aoki's poor 2011

I’m hoping it’s attributable to the change in ball and Aoki taking most of the season to adjust, but I believe the balls were changed to make them more like the Major League balls, which makes that drop in production a bit more concerning.

If the Brewers get pre-2011 Aoki or even somewhere in between that and 2011 Aoki, they should be fine.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 18, 2012 7:46 AM CST reply actions

There was a Random Blog Post

That said something along the lines of him losing his rhythm and trying to spray the ball rather than hit the ball rather than take what the pitchers were giving him. It will be interesting to see if that’s a trend this year as well.

A drop in power doesn’t surprise me that much. For at least some of those players, they’re past their prime and power is the first thing to go, right? Toss in the fact that they’re probably seeing more good breaking balls in MLB than NPB and a drop in power isn’t all that unexpected.

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 8:30 AM CST up reply actions

You just dont know what to expect out of him

I would guestimate a 1 WAR type of projection for him, considering his defensive liabilities, age, and transition to America/MLB.

Think Juan Pierre without the speed (i.e. decent average, not much else.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 8:52 AM CST up reply actions

I'm not convinced he's going to be a defensive liability

By all accounts I’ve seen, his range is excellent, but his arm is weak. I think a projection of at least average defense is a reasonably safe bet.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 18, 2012 9:07 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Could be

But any plusses a LF has on defense are pretty much swallwed up by the positional adjustments.

Braun has pretty good range too, doesnt stop him from being a bad defender.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

I know you're talking about WAR

But my projection of average defense has nothing to do with positional adjustments. We don’t have any reason to believe he won’t be an average-to-above-average defensive corner outfielder.

Braun is a bad defender because he has terrible instincts, which takes away most of the advantage of his good range. We have no reports of that with Aoki. In fact, it’s more likely the opposite: If he’s not a speed demon and has shown plus range in CF, it’s probably because he has good instincts, which would make him a pretty good defender.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 18, 2012 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Doesn't just about every CF have good instincts?

Otherwise they would be in a corner, in the first place.

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 1:03 PM CST up reply actions

For every Carlos Gomez

there’s a Mark Kotsay.

by sjlee on Jan 18, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

Chuckie hacks.

But Chcukie can’t track.

by mpbMKE on Jan 19, 2012 10:37 AM CST up reply actions

two words

Alex Sanchez

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Jan 19, 2012 3:11 PM CST up reply actions

It's really hard to put a point estimate on his expected production

It’s probably better to just quote a “likely range” of values, because it has the possibility of being quite large. WAR is also based on playing time so is your 1 WAR assuming ~80 games assuming he takes Braun’s spot for 50 games and makes all spot starts for Hart and Braun?

If we assume a full season of games, I don’t think anyone would be surprised with anything between 0.5 and 2.5 WAR. One could make a case for any WAR within that range. I guess we’ll see what he has to offer. I still think he’ll be a better option than Gindl, but who knows?

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM CST up reply actions

I'm guesstimating 10 WAR

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 1:33 PM CST up reply actions

This is why the Karate Kid 2 theme was written about you.

by Hyatt on Jan 19, 2012 3:11 PM CST up reply actions

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