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Around SBN: Indy 500: Coverage of the 'Greatest Spectacle In Racing'

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while eating crackers.

We're 31 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and this morning we're also celebrating day one of the Norichika Aoki Era. The Brewers waited until the last minute to do so but signed Aoki to a two year deal with a club option for 2014 yesterday (FanShot). Terms of the deal are still undisclosed, but it's worth noting that Aoki probably would have made over $4 million in Japan this season. Here's a quick roundup of notes on the transaction:

Meanwhile, that wasn't yesterday's only transaction. The team also avoided arbitration by signing one year deals with Francisco Rodriguez ($8 million) and Kameron Loe ($2.175 million) (FanShot). Both deals are significantly less expensive than expected. If nothing else, K-Rod's lower-than-expected salary could make him easier to trade if the Brewers decide to do so: Jay Jaffe noted that there's always a market for a "proven closer" around the trade deadline.

Adam McCalvy passed along these notes on $625,000 in possible incentives in Rodriguez's deal:

Trigger Amount
15 games finished $125,000
20 games finished $125,000
25 games finished $125,000
30 games finished $250,000

I'm surprised and a little concerned that all of these incentives are for games finished, and none are for actual appearances. Rodriguez now has another financial incentive to make his non-closer status an issue.

With K-Rod and Loe's deals done, the Brewers have just two arbitration-eligible players remaining and they traded proposals with the team yesterday (FanShot):

Player Team Offer Player Offer Difference
Shaun Marcum $6.75 million $8.7 million $1.95 million
Jose Veras $2 million $2.375 million $375,000

Yesterday we mentioned that Craig Counsell had retired and accepted a position in the Brewer front office. We now know that he'll be serving as a special assistant to Doug Melvin, and the team held a press conference to announce the move yesterday afternoon. John Steinmiller has a slide show from the event, where Counsell said he's definitely done playing and turned down an offer to serve as the Cubs' first base coach earlier this winter. We also have some video from the press conference.

Doug Melvin had a very busy day yesterday but it didn't end there: After spending the day finalizing moves and making announcements he came up to Appleton and was a featured guest at the Red Smith Banquet last night. The Appleton Post Crescent has the story.

In the minors:

  • Francisco Rodriguez celebrated his new contract by striking out the side in his lone inning of work for La Guaira last night, but it wasn't enough as they lost 5-2 to Aragua in the Venezuelan playoffs. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes.
  • As of this writing Taylor Jungmann has a 15 vote lead on Tyler Thornburg in the voting for the #2 spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. You have until 1 pm today to vote, and the race for the #3 spot will open at 2.

This is kind of like a power ranking, I guess: Minor League Baseball Prospects lists Zach Braddock as basebal's 85th best player age 25 or younger. Braddock was the youngest Brewer in 2011.

Around baseball:

Astros: Avoided arbitration with pitcher J.A. Happ (one year, $2.35 million), signed 1B/DH Jack Cust to a one year deal with a club option for 2013 and named former Rockies minor league coach Craig Bjornson their new bullpen coach.
Blue Jays: Avoided arbitration with second baseman Kelly Johnson ($6.3 million), pitcher Carlos Villanueva ($2.2 million) and outfielder Ben Francisco ($1.5 million) and released third baseman Mark Teahen.
Braves: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Michael Bourn ($6.45 million) and pitcher Jair Jurrjens ($5.5 million) and signed reliever Peter Moylan to a minor league deal.
Cardinals: Avoided arbitration with pitcher Kyle McClellan (one year, $2.5 million).
Cubs: Avoided arbitration with catcher Geovany Soto ($4.3 million), pitchers Randy Wells ($2.705 million) and Chris Volstad ($2.655 million), third baseman Ian Steward ($2.237 million) and infielders Jeff Baker ($1.375 million) and Blake DeWitt ($1.1 million).
Dodgers: Avoided arbitration with first baseman James Loney (one year, $6.4 million).
Giants: Avoided arbitration with third baseman Pablo Sandoval with a three year, $17 million deal.
Indians
: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo ($4.9 million), pitchers Chris Perez ($4.5 million), Justin Masterson ($3.85 million) and Joe Smith ($1.75 million) and infielder Jack Hannahan ($1.35 million).
Mariners: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitchers Brandon League ($5 million), Jason Vargas ($4.85 million) and Shawn Kelley ($600,000).
Marlins: Avoided arbitration with reliever Juan Carlos Oviedo ($6 million).
Mets: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitcher Mike Pelfrey ($5.68 million), outfielder Andres Torres ($2.7 million) and relievers Ramon Ramirez ($2.65 million) and Manny Acosta ($875,000).
Nationals: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitchers Tom Gorzelanny ($2.7 million), Jordan Zimmermann ($2.3 million) and Tyler Clippard ($1.65 million).
Orioles: Signed pitcher Armando Galarraga to a minor league deal.
Padres: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for outfielder Carlos Quentin ($7.025 million), third baseman Chase Headley ($3.475 million), pitchers Tim Stauffer ($3.2 million), Luke Gregerson ($1.55 million), Edinson Volquez ($2.2375 million) and Joe Thatcher ($700,000), catchers John Baker ($750,000) and Nick Hundley ($2 million) and outfielder Will Venable ($1.475 million).
Phillies: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitcher Cole Hamels ($15 million) and infielder Wilson Valdez ($900,000).
Pirates: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitchers Jeff Karstens ($3.1 million) and Evan Meek ($875,000).
Rangers: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for reliever Mike Adams ($4.4 million), outfielder David Murphy ($3.625 million) and pitchers Matt Harrison ($2.95 million) and Mark Lowe ($1.7 million).
Rays: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for outfielder B.J. Upton ($7 million) and pitchers David Price ($4.35 million) and Burke Badenhop ($1.075 million).
Red Sox: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (one year, $8.05 million).
Royals: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitchers Jonathan Sanchez ($5.6 million), Luke Hochevar ($3.51 million) and Felipe Paulino ($1.9 million).
Tigers: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for outfielder Delmon Young ($6.75 million), pitcher Max Scherzer ($3.75 million) and infielder Don Kelly ($900,000). Also, catcher/DH Victor Martinez may miss the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL.
Twins: Avoided arbitration with one year deals for pitchers Francisco Liriano ($5.5 million) and Glen Perkins ($1.55 million).

In former Brewers:

  • NPB Tracker has Bill Hall on a list of six MLB free agents that could be a fit in Japan.
  • Todd Coffey is also still a free agent, and The Nats Blog wonders if he's sprinted to the mound in Washington for the last time.

This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History remembers the end of reliever Pete Ladd's Brewer career. Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that it's also the 27th anniversary of a four team trade between the Brewers, Rangers, Mets and Royals that brought pitchers Danny Darwin and Tim Leary to Milwaukee.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go pretend to be David.

Drink up.

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By my count, 23 teams have a transaction in the Mug today.

Which means I probably missed one from the Angels, A’s, Diamondbacks, Reds, Rockies, White Sox and Yankees.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually, I did miss an Angel (Aybar) and three Reds.

Guess I’ll have something to write about tomorrow.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

I had that yesterday.

But they avoided arb with three guys too. I passed on it initially because I didn’t have the numbers yet, then never came back to it.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 10:28 AM CST up reply actions  

Side note about the other transactions

Michael Bourn avoided arbitration by signing for $6.45mil. Considering the Brewers have $4.35 between 2 centerfielders that are not much of a drop off combined makes me feel pretty good about.

by aka Mich on Jan 18, 2012 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

I'm not sure whether Aoki will be a good player

But I think he’ll be pretty fun to watch. That highlight video posted here back when the Brewers posted for him was really entertaining.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 18, 2012 10:25 AM CST reply actions  

As long as he’s anything like Tanaka in Major League 2, I’m in. God, what a terrible movie…

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

We will have to agree to disagree about that

It’s not Major League 1, but it definitely had some pretty hilarious moments.

by cwolf20 on Jan 18, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Haven't seen Major League 2, but I have it sitting at home right now.

I picked it up for a couple of dollars, but haven’t watched it yet. Is it worth watching?

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions  

YES.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Only if you have marbles.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jan 18, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

"we win one today, that's two in a row"

“we win one tomorrow, that’s called a Winning Streak”

by Yomes on Jan 18, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I haven't watched it in a long time.

But the last time I did I it was way less funny than I’d remembered it being.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Dissing Major League 2?

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think this is the place to be posting Patrick Ewing pictures.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 12:21 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Oh, pink eye.

My bad.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions  

he will be good for the Crew

I think he will be a good bat off the bench for the Brewers because he his a lefty which we lack..

by Brew_Crew on Jan 18, 2012 2:12 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Man,

ESPN is so lame.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Isn't it good for the Brewers?

If I recall corrrectly, doesn’t Milwaukee kind of stink on national TV?

by Noah Jarosh on Jan 18, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

I vaguely recall something to that effect.

It hurts the out-of-state, unable to afford MLB Extra Innings people a bit.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 11:18 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm actually a little offended after seeing the schedule.

Does ESPN think the Reds will be better than the Brewers this season? Despite keeping all of June open, they’re not opposed to scheduling a game between the Cardinals and Reds in July.

We can just wait for now, but once Fielder signs with the Nationals, they’re going to pick up that July 29th game so fast that everyone will be left in the dust.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 11:51 AM CST up reply actions  

The Reds might be better than the Brewers next season.

Regardless, that wouldn’t be the reason ESPN picked up that game. They picked it up because they will likely gain more viewers and make more money from that game.

by Noah Jarosh on Jan 18, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe the Reds will end up being better than the Brewers next season (probably shouldn't have worded it the way I did above)

Still, I find it extremely odd that game would get scheduled that far in advance when June was left open. The Yankees-Red Sox game they scheduled already in July makes sense, but St. Louis-Cincinnati doesn’t seem like it would be a big draw.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions  

If they're basing it on population alone, it makes sense.

In the 2010 census, the St. Louis metro area ranked 18th with Cincinnati metro area ranked 27th. The Milwaukee metro area ranked 39th.

by sjlee on Jan 18, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Unless the Reds or Cardinals tank.

Which is a 50-50 proposition, I’d say. Cincinatti isn’t exactly a media mecca, nor do they have a widespread national fanbase. In other words, they’re a push to draw in an audience when compared to Milwaukee.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

It is going to be interesting to see how people (specifically baseball analysts) view the Cardinals.

Here’s my guess. They’ll say that the Cardinals will win the Central because no one else will have what it takes to win.

Cardinals aren’t a lock by any means. They have several questions entering next season:

- How will Wainwright bounce back from Tommy John surgery?
- Can Carpenter keep up his good pitching?
- Will Berkman continue to play well?
- How will the loss of La Russa and Duncan affect the team?

Of course, you can call out questions on any team at this point. Just looking at the NL Central right now, it could be a year where whoever steps up gets it. No team (not even the Brewers) look like an overwhelming favorite right now.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Overwhelming is the big key there

As of right now, I have the 3 teams within one game of each other atop the division. Braun playing 150 changes that to the Brewers as the favorite, but still not overwhelmingly.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm a little curious about this

So, in your opinion, does that mean the Brewers did a better job replacing the lost production from 2nd better than the Cardinals did? Neither team managed to replace ALL the production, but the Brewers did a better job?

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 12:50 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Replacing 2nd = Replacing 1B

Stupid aggressive autocorrect.

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 12:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Well not quite

Because the Brewers started out with a higher base (92.3 I think).

And the Cards were at something like 90, but loss of Pujols replaced by Wainwright coming back and Carlos Beltran coming in keeps them on pace for a pretty decent team. Sure they are old, but the Cards historically have never really been a young team.

And the Brewers lose Fielder and replace with ARam, Gonzalez and Aoki but maybe lose Braun for 50 games. The big problem with Brewer offense (imo) will be some considerable regression, whereas with Cards they performed about as expected last year and dont get that regression.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Morgan and Braun regressing?

There isn’t much reason to believe Gomez, Hart, Lucroy or Weeks will be any worse this year. Lucroy stands to improve some given that he was pulled up a season early in his development cycle. Weeks missed enough time last year that his production could drop on a per-PA basis, but still be the same over the course of the year.

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Ive got 2 WAR apeice regressing for both of those guys

Then another 2 for the possible 50 games lost for Braun. Lucroy probably stands still. But there are small improvements from the pitchers that underperformed Grienke, Gallardo and Marcum…..

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Do you expect Nyjer Morgan to put up another 4 win season?

I dont. And expecting Braun to do almost 8 (sans suspension) is pretty optimistic too.

by backtocali on Jan 19, 2012 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

That's not all you said in that comment.

I don’t expect Braun to put up 7 or more if he misses 50 games obviously. Morgan’s regression will depend on how he’s used. With the players they have they can use Morgan in a way that should avoid a 2 win regression. It’s the combination of your expectation that Morgan and Braun will regress 4 wins (or more) with the assumption that the guys who underperformed will have only “small improvements” that once again demonstrates 2 things:

1) you want this team to fail;
2) you make assumptions that you call facts, and then rely on them to make “objective” predictions of their failure.

It’s the same crap every year, and it’s why you don’t have any credibility. I know you don’t believe that, but that’s just another sign of your complete obliviousness to your own failings as an analyst when it comes to this team.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 19, 2012 5:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Berkman regress?

no way

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Loss of Pujols, Berkman regression

accounts for 6.2 WAR, Wainwright around 4 coming back and another 3+ for Beltran….

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Are you prorating the Beltran WAR?

Because expecting him to play more than 120 games is pretty ballsy.

by cwolf20 on Jan 18, 2012 4:22 PM CST up reply actions  

What about Edwin Jackson?

3.1 WAR being replaced by 4 WAR is obviously net .9 WAR…

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:24 PM CST up reply actions  

So are you just going off of last year's WAR?

So losing Pujols’ 2011 WAR of 5.1? And Berkman regresses by 1.1 from 2011 to 3.9? Also, TsMcG’s calculation on Jackson isn’t right, since he only put up .7 WAR as a Cardinal last year, but that should factor in. So, net the Wainwright/Jackson to 3.3. And then 3+ for Beltran? Let’s just say 3.5, then.

So in total, you have -6.2+3.3+3.5= .8

Also, do you factor in losing Dave Duncan? Or since that’s completely unquantifiable, just go with a “we’ll see” approach?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

You're right.

I added the 2.3 WAR from the Sox

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Conventional wisdom

Was that TLR and Duncan were holding that team together with twine and duct tape so they could ride Pujols. Fair? Maybe not, but we’ll see.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree

The same could be said about Braun without Fielder behind him in the lineup, or in front of Hart/Weeks.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't disagree.

I’ve got all 3 top teams as a push to have a surprisingly good or disappointingly bad season.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Haha Astros

Jack Cust and J.A. Happ in one day?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 12:22 PM CST reply actions  

Minute Maid Park

is not the ideal location for a soft tossing lefty.

But they need a live body to play some LF/1B and he beats a AAAA player. You could probably debate the question of cost versuse added value, but its a low risk move.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 12:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't understand the Jack Cust hate.

He sucks at defense but he can mash RHP and is cheap. Not like he’s Yuniesky Betancourt.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Brewers should have signed him as Gamel's platoon partner.

Ah well, missed opportunity.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

sorry the above wasn’t more clear:

Brewers should have signed him as Gamel's platoon partner. Ah well, missed opportunity

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 19, 2012 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

KRod incentives feel more like trade insurance

Given the low numbers, it feels more like he’s negotiating half of a season of closing. If you figure a closer gets in 60 games over the course of a season (or whatever), that works out to $1.25 million more per year for Lord’s incentives and pushes his contract to $9.25 million / year as a full-time closer. Given the flooded closer market, that’s probably a fair price for him. Given the entire situation, it seems like a pretty balanced contract.

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 12:45 PM CST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Possibly

However, if Axford struggles at all this season, you know K-Rod will start pushing for some save chances.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

By the way

Should the caption under K-Rod’s picture read “625,000 reasons” instead of “675,000 reasons”? I guess there could be 50,000 other reasons out there that aren’t related to the money.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes. yes it should.

And now it does.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it is an acknowledgement that he is unlikely to close many games for the Brewers

But if he ends up as the closer he wants extra money.
Unless Axford gets injured, he would have to pitch pretty awfully before they changed him so K-Rod and Boras probably realised, as you have said, that he was unlike to play more than 1/2 a season in the closers role for the Brewers or if he was going to be traded it is unlikely to happen before July.

by Saltire on Jan 18, 2012 12:57 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

It looks like the Whirling Darvish will be signing with the Rangers.

Jon Heyman expects a deal to get done, and it to be for six years.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 12:59 PM CST reply actions  

And yet another prominent Prince suitor is probably out, if so

The speculation from most has been that if they landed Darvish, with the kind of money invested at this point, they’d be out on Fielder.

I think the Nationals have some decent leverage at this point.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Jan 18, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Boras has screwed up massively this offseason.

I wonder how much money he has cost himself so far.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

How did Boras screw up?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Three situations come right to mind

- Ryan Madson (lost a 4 year / $44 million contract and had to settle for 1 year / $8.5 million)
- Francisco Rodriguez (misjudged the closer market)
- Prince Fielder (still hasn’t signed and may only get a contract worth half of what he originally thought he could get)

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

None of those were Boras's fault, fwiw.

And Melvin misjudged the closer market in offering arbitration, not K-Rod/Boras.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions  

I was just thinking that today

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Madson might be.

Depending on how that situation played out. But, yeah, the other two are just bad luck. At worst, he just misjudged the markets, but it’s not like he cost them (and therefore himself) money they could have gotten at another time.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Except for Madson...

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Buster Olney agrees with you.
Players still in free agency basically have little or no leverage at this stage in the winter. Time to grab deals when you can.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, ultimately it'll be good for baseball if Boras is taken down a notch or two.

Sucks that it might end up costing Fielder, too, but I’m guessing he’ll make enough money and not be stupid with it that he’ll be more than fine.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Jan 18, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess we'll see

Unless it was a barren landscape for 1B, I don’t think any team was ever going to offer more than 6 years and just about all of the initial offers were probably 5 year deals. As soon as you’re willing to do a 5-year contract, you get a lot of teams interested again. Boras will find $115 / 5 years or $125 MM / 6 years for Fielder with some team and he’ll still be filthy rich(er).

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

At this point, I have to wonder if Fielder will be a little out of shape entering next season.

Look at what happened to Victor Martinez with his torn ACL. My guess is that Fielder hasn’t been doing much other than light workouts to minimize that risk. Considering how late in the offseason it is, could he be a little out of shape to start 2012?

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Are you kidding?

I’m sure he’ll be in the Best Shape Of His Life (BSOHL – bee soul for short) coming into camp.

Seriously, though, how many guys are completely in playing shape when they hit Spring Training? I wouldn’t be concerned about that. Wouldn’t a team be able to void a new contract with a player if he’s injured before Spring Training in a workout not supervised by that team, anyway?

by ecocd on Jan 18, 2012 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Reports out of Texas

were that the Rangers were very impressed with how trim he was.

This stuff is all openly available on the internet.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Ahhhhh!

SOPA joke #1

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I was trying not to be blatant about it.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I seriously doubt his offseason workout routine is any different this season than it was in the past.

Just because he doesn’t have a contract yet doesn’t mean he’s just been sitting around on his couch watching soaps and eating ice cream.

by sjlee on Jan 19, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions  

You don’t think Boras will beat the 5/$100 offer the Brewers made a year ago?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Probably

But he might not beat the 6/$120 the Brewers were “willing to offer” a couple of months ago.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Assuming that's true. I'm very skeptical the Brewers engaged in any serious negotiations since last year.

They’ve probably been planning on Prince leaving for years.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I doubt they thought that the offer of 6/120 was really going to be the best offer.

It has to be one of the bigger surprises so far of the off season that Boras has been unable to get Fielder any sort of offer close to what they wanted.

by Saltire on Jan 18, 2012 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

I wonder if the Diamondbacks might not be a suitor for Fielder

If they were to sign him to a big deal, and then move Goldschmidt + for Garza or a very nice arm they might even be World Series favorites for next year as opposed to just NL West favorites.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

God,

what a douche.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 2:27 PM CST up reply actions  

"It's one of the most difficult things you do as a manager," said La Russa...

Totally, man.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

It is really difficult to tell somebody to go out and fight for you.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jan 18, 2012 7:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Didn't he admit as much at the time?

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions  

It's a good thing I write FanShots about things like this.
We did not hit Braun on purpose. We threw two balls in there real good to send a message.

LINK

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 18, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions  

So: yes.

Thanks.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

No way!

What are you, an idiot?

2011: A wasted year

by Tepo6688 on Jan 18, 2012 11:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Meh

Sky is blue.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Who?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:39 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Hey, it has been a while since we had this argument
Even his middle-ground projections place him in the vicinity of excellent young pitchers like Jordan Zimmermann and Yovani Gallardo — if not a True Ace, very close to that level.

Jack Moore at Fangraphs.

But he’s a Madison-living, Brewers-loving, stat-head baseball guy! How can he say Gallardo’s not an ace?!

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:03 PM CST reply actions  

Who is that comment in reference to?

I think the big thing that keeps Gallardo out of the “ace” category is that he doesnt really use a 3rd pitch.

He has a plus fastball and curveball to go along with plus command, but scouts like to see at least an average 3rd pitch to be considered ace material.

Greinke is an ace, and Gallardo is a #2.

by backtocali on Jan 18, 2012 3:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree-

For a couple of years he was “ace” by default, but didn’t pitch like a true ace. I wouldn’t call Greinke ace either, at this point. No matter how many pitches he has.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 3:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe he's saying that's what's holding him back.

Not that an ace has to have 3+ pitches.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 3:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah

the joys of terms that aren’t self-defining.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

And Fangraphs has Gallardo throwing a curveball and slider equal amounts.

Both of those are around 20% of his pitch selection, with his fastball being around 60%. So Gallardo either has one pitch or three pitches. Not two.

by Noah Jarosh on Jan 18, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Or four.

He throws 45% four-seam fastball, 13% two-seam fastball, according to Pitch F/X.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Well,at least 2.

Because he throws SOME kind of breaking ball, whether that be a curve, slider, or slurve (I was pretty sure he threw both a slider and a curve but couldn’t back it up). I remember him trying to mix in a change-up occasionally at some point, typically with poor results.

And Rubie makes a good point that he does, in fact, throw two different fastballs.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

He threw 40 change-ups, total, last year.

And, like you said, that’s probably for the best.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I think they were all in the first couple months.

I’m too lazy to search for it, but I’m pretty sure McCalvy or TH or somebody had a story on him abandoning it pretty early.

by mpbMKE on Jan 18, 2012 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

More or less accurate.

He threw 31 before July 1, nine for the rest of the season.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

And, apropos of nothing:

I’m trying to track down the one “fuck the heck?” fastball that Gallardo threw in 2011: Pitch F/X has a single unclassified fastball (FA) that didn’t move like Yo’s four-seamer or his two-seamer; it went 92 mph and broke two inches away from a right-handed hitter.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Ooh that's a good point!

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Neither was Randy Johnson

He seemed to get by with only 2 above average pitches…

by Saltire on Jan 18, 2012 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

You forget his third pitch...

The Destroyer of Pigeons.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jan 18, 2012 4:23 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Mariano Rivera's not a closer. He doesn't have a second outpitch.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Because Internet baseball is a hivemind where people don't actually go by stats but instead perceptions

Gallado was 10th in xFIP and 9th in SIERA last season, and that’s with his horrible start to the season.. That’s not an “ace”…?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

(Greinke was first in both those categories, in case anyone forgot)

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:48 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

So that means he'll pitch better going forward, right?

Or at least he would be projected to based on xFIP and SIERA, right?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, as you yourself noted, SIERA is apparently better at “predicting” future performance than systems actually designed to project performance (hence the reason those all suck)

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

I was just wondering why it was OK to use those

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Uhh...?

Listen, if you come up with a system using a bunch of complex formulas and computer simulations whatever with the purpose of projecting future performance, and it turns out that this system is less accurate than simply looking at previous season performance (i.e. fancier ERA), your projection system sucks. Currently, nobody is very good at making projection systems, why is that surprising and why does that mean it’s not “OK” to look at ZiPS, et al.?

xFIP/SIERA are not intended to be projections any more than ERA of AVG are. They just happen to be better at it than ZiPS.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually xFIP isn't

but SIERA is.

And, while these two metrics are used to explain past performance, saying they aren’t used to then predict regression or progression is disingenuous.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Did I say that they have no predictive value?

Good lord, trying to respond to you is exhausting, I think maybe I’ll just stop for now. Not every post on the Internet is an invitation to an argument, you know.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't make Congress censor you two.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jan 18, 2012 4:27 PM CST up reply actions  

AHH!!!

SOPA joke #2, I’m keeping a running tally

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

"you two"

Oh please don’t lump us together.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Are you being serious?

Because when I stated and linked the fangraphs article about ERA estimators and projection systems having predictive value, you said that projection systems are junk, but the ERA estimators aren’t used in the same way.

I mean the correlation is there, as weak as it is. Its up to you if you want to cherry pick which is valuable and which isn’t. I just think you’re being a little dramatic if you say ZiPS is junk but xFIP is invaluable.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 4:34 PM CST up reply actions  

OK then

Which one is SRB and which one is Charlie Marlow?

BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool

by MrLeam on Jan 18, 2012 4:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, because there’s nothing I enjoy more than every thread on this website devolving into an argument. It’s totally fun!

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 9:56 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

So ironic!

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 19, 2012 1:54 AM CST up reply actions  

No Jack Moore is a huge stats guy

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 18, 2012 3:52 PM CST up reply actions  

The stats community is what I was referring to

It’s as much popular perception as it is actual numbers.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

So he's a fat guy that likes stats?

Or he likes really big stats?

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 18, 2012 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

In other news...

Braun WILL give a speech at BBWAA banquet.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:14 PM CST reply actions  

Will it be like this?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Boy, I hope not.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, who knows what they were thinking when they booked him.

I guess they thought he was actually a republican?

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:39 PM CST up reply actions  

From what I have heard

Republicans liked him just as much as liberals because they thought he was just exaggerating his actual views. Guess they learned the hard way, eh?

by cwolf20 on Jan 18, 2012 4:40 PM CST up reply actions  

People clearly wanted to laugh at most of this, but they didn’t want to be the first one to do so.

2011: A wasted year

by Tepo6688 on Jan 18, 2012 11:16 PM CST up reply actions  

In other news

Aoki will wear #7 (according to John Steinmiller, retweeted by Adam McCalvy)

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Jan 18, 2012 4:50 PM CST reply actions  

7 is a very lucky number in Japan.

I made that up.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 4:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Wiki's down today.

We would’ve trusted you. Shouldn’t have said anything.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.

by Rubie Q on Jan 18, 2012 4:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Hah!

Just kidding I knew 7 was lucky all along.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 18, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Hello Re-purposed Hardy Jersey!

BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 18, 2012 6:54 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

More Aoki details via Yakyu Baka
Nikkan Sports mentions that Norichika Aoki will hold a press conference in Japan on 1/20. Sponichi adds that Aoki probably signed for about US$1.5M a year, or about half of what he made in 2011 (from 330M yen to 115.5M yen). With incentives (based on the number of games he plays/starts), the two-year deal could be worth around US$5M (or 385M yen).

Aoki is the fifth Japanese player to join the Milwaukee Brewers’ organization: Hideo Nomo (1999), Takahito Nomura (2002), Tomokazu Oka (2005-2006), and Takashi Saito (2011).

Aoki will begin working out in Okinawa next week. And while the Brewers would like to introduce him at FanFest on 1/29, nothing has been finalized due to possible visa timing issues.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Jan 18, 2012 9:57 PM CST reply actions  

It was a pretty big deal.

He even ran in the sausage race when he came back as a Tiger in 2000.

by mpbMKE on Jan 19, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions  

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