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Does Fielder's Contract Outdo Pujols'?

Given that the details of Fielders contract haven't been released, we can't really do a proper comparison of the two. What we can do, however, is make a few assumptions. (And yes, they're going to be very broad assumptions, but they're generally supportable).

Let's assume that Fielder's contract is level for all 9 years, earning him about 23.8M per. Let's further assume that the long term inflation rate is 3%, as is generally forecasted for a short term period.

Discounting the nominal values:

Pujols' contract in 2012 dollars = 201.05M

Fielder's contract in 2012 dollars = 185.15M

This gives us a difference of 15.91M. But, that's not a fair comparison. We know that as of 2011, living in Detroit is 45% cheaper than living in Los Angeles. (Note: Home prices in Detroit are approximately 83% lower than those in LA, but I'll use the 45% Cost of Living Adjustment, for the sake of conservatism).

Let's further assume that the divide between Detroit and LA Decreases by 5% per year, as the automotive economy picks up, and as the housing market in the "Sand States" of the union continues to decline. So, from a 45% adjustment in 2012, we decline exponentially to a 29.9% adjustment in 2020.

So, if we adjust Fielders contract by dividing by one minus this adjustment (essentially adjusting it to get the same "purchase power" as Pujols' contract in LA gets --> Detroit Dollars * LA Purchase Power/Detroit Purchase Power = LA Dollars):

Fielder's annual purchase power adjusted salaries:

Season Salary
2012 $43.2 million
2013 $41.5 million
2014 $40 million
2015 $38.7 million
2016 $37.5 million
2017 $36.5 million
2018 $35.5 million
2019 $34.7 million
2020 $33.8 million

Discounting THIS cash flow stream at the same 3% gives him 297.3M in 2011 dollars, at the same purchase power level as Pujols is getting in LA.

So, you could argue that Fielder's contract is about 96M BETTER than Pujols', simply because of location.

Then again, you could argue (and I'd agree with you), that when you're talking about this much money, the general economy doesn't really impact you that significantly, and that you're less likely to actually live in the area where you're working, and thus Fielder won't draw on the massively cheaper cost of living in Detroit (because he doesn't have to).

But, assuming they live and spend most of their time where they work, Fielder can buy more toys with his contract than Pujols can buy with his. Still has to spend a lot of time in Detroit though. Which negates pretty much all the benefits.

So you can argue (and again, I'd agree), that this analysis isn't really relevant because of the raw dollars involved. It's kind of interesting, though...

Comment 26 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Nice article, but...

Doesn’t Prince have residency in Florida – where there is no state income tax? Wouldn’t that have more bearing than whether he plays in Detroit vs LA?

by ddloml on Jan 25, 2012 10:50 AM CST reply actions  

Income tax is based on state of employment, not state of residence.

He’ll still have to file taxes in Michigan.

Proudly waving the "Retire Craig Counsell" banner since 2011.
Twitterize me if you dare: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Jan 25, 2012 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

The last 3 paragrapshs sum it up nicely

the majority of the money will probably be spent in FL, so even though Detroit is a cheaper city to live in than Los Angeles, the true benefit of the dollars will be used in FL. And if I’m not mistaken, Tampa is one of the cheapest big cities in the country to live in, and that is close to where Fielder’s residence is.

by backtocali on Jan 25, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

Tampa’s only 19% more expensive of a city than Detroit, (Though 124% more expensive if you only look at home prices)

Tampa’s 35% cheaper than LA, though I’d wouldn’t anticipate that gap declining, as I would the gap between LA and MI.

Proudly waving the "Retire Craig Counsell" banner since 2011.
Twitterize me if you dare: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Jan 25, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I disagree

I work in the state if Illinois but pay Wisconsin income taxes. For normal people, it will be based on residency.

However, I don’t think that baseball players are normal. I remember reading an article some time ago about how New York was able (or trying) to collect income taxes on visiting teams players.

Also, since the baseball season is a full six months long, it could be argued that Prince’s primary residence would be Michigan.

by Saberilliterate on Jan 25, 2012 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Jeter

I remember New York trying to collect on Jeter because he was bypassing the income tax by having his “residence” in Florida, when he was clearly spending most of his time in New York.

by mpbMKE on Jan 25, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Players actually have to file taxes in most states they play in.

Play a 3-game series in New York? New York will ding you for state taxes. Play 9 games in California (Padres/Dodgers/Giants road trip)? California will demand its money.

Pujols is going to wind up paying 10.3% (That’s the top rate in California for income > $1M) on 81 games (home) + 3 games (vs. Dodgers) + 9 games (vs. As), or roughly 57.4% (93/162) of his playing income. If you fix his income at $24M, that means he’ll pay around $1.4M in state taxes just to California each year. And more in those years where they play the Giants or Padres in interleague. (Yes, not all of it will be taxed at 10.3%, but it’s 9.3% starting at around $150K, and Jerry Brown is looking to raise the rate even higher.)

I wonder if he thought about that before he rejected the Marlins? (FL has state income tax of 0%)

Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.

by Brew Angel on Jan 25, 2012 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

So even before the issue of backloading comes up, you can make a case that Fielder got a better deal.

Thanks for putting this together on short notice, Mykenk.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Jan 25, 2012 10:54 AM CST reply actions  

I'm not sure this is 100% true.

On the surface, I’d agree… and definitely in terms of high-dollar national marketing campaigns, but when it comes to the local ones, there’s far more competition in LA than there is in Detroit, many more big name celebrities that companies want to pitch their products. There’s not much out there in Detroit. I think Fielder will do pretty well in advertising locally, perhaps better than Pujols… but, yeah, the national money is much more likely to go to Pujols.

Proudly waving the "Retire Craig Counsell" banner since 2011.
Twitterize me if you dare: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Jan 25, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Pujols also got some extras

Dunno what Fielder got, but Pujols got:
- 10-year personal services contract starting at the end of his contract for $1MM/year
- Milestone bonuses for 3000 hits ($3MM) and 763 HRs ($7MM)
- Bonuses for MVP ($500k), MVP 2nd or 3rd place ($75k), GG ($75k), SS ($75k), AS ($50k), WSMVP ($100k), LCSMVP ($75k)
- Private hotel suit on all road trips
- His foundation gets a luxury suite for 10 home games/yr
- 4 tickets/home game

Mark Attanasio is the best.

by nullacct on Jan 25, 2012 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep, none of that's accounted for.

Though aside from the PSC and the milestone bonuses, I’d guess the other perks are about the same.

The PSC would Give Pujols an extra 6.35M in 2012 dollars, FWIW.

Proudly waving the "Retire Craig Counsell" banner since 2011.
Twitterize me if you dare: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Jan 25, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Interesting

Though, is the average cost of living difference really applicable to quarter-billionaires?

Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!

by SRB on Jan 25, 2012 11:10 AM CST reply actions  

Only if they spend the money in the local economy

Which would make him more of a hero off the field than on it.

Mark Attanasio is the best.

by nullacct on Jan 25, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Not really.

Which is why I caveated it as such. I’d assume it’s partially applicable, given how long he’ll be in town, and the fact that I’m assuming his family will live in Detroit full-time.

Proudly waving the "Retire Craig Counsell" banner since 2011.
Twitterize me if you dare: @mykenk

by Mykenk on Jan 25, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

"Fielder can buy more toys" made me think of a whole truckload of these

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jan 25, 2012 11:37 AM CST reply actions  

Link fail. Try again.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Jan 25, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Cool, well done.

Like you said, the results are specious because of the assumptions you’re forced to make, but it’s a fun exercise. I feel smarter.

by mpbMKE on Jan 25, 2012 11:41 AM CST reply actions  

Of course

getting to live in Southern California makes up for the 90M gap vs. Detroit.

:)

(spoken like an immigrant to Southern California)

by Archibaldcrane on Jan 25, 2012 11:43 AM CST reply actions  

Nice job Mykenk

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 25, 2012 2:17 PM CST reply actions  

I rec'd for argument style

Point A is countered by Point B, but here’s Data A that validates Point A and now here’s Data B that validates Point B. But Data A counters Data B, so Point A is right. But one could say that Point B was right the whole time. And I agree with it all.

If only I could write like this on English papers…

by bcschles on Jan 26, 2012 1:39 AM CST reply actions  

This line is lollerskates
Fielder can buy more toys with his contract than Pujols can buy with his. Still has to spend a lot of time in Detroit though. Which negates pretty much all the benefits.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Jan 26, 2012 3:36 PM CST reply actions  

With one years' salary

He could buy the entire neighborhood of Oakwood Heights and tear it down to build a private estate. He’d have to use his 2013 salary to pay for the mansion.

Mark Attanasio is the best.

by nullacct on Jan 29, 2012 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

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