Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 26, 2012 10:13 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while sitting down excellently.
We're 23 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and we might have to wait that long to see Ryan Braun's next public appearance. The team announced yesterday that plans have changed and Braun will not be appearing at this weekend's On Deck event due to the sensitive nature of his ongoing situation (FanShot). Since the results of Braun's appeal remain undecided, there's still not much he can say publicly to answer questions he likely would have been asked over and over again.
Meanwhile, for some reason it feels like everyone is talking about Corey Hart today:
- Trenni Kusnierek interviewed him on WTMJ and posted his answers on several topics.
- Voters in this week's BCB Tracking Poll strongly approved of asking Hart to play occasionally at first base, but still think Mat Gamel should play there most of the time. Gamel, by the way, has a new haircut.
- Jason Brannon of Baseball Nation says Hart has inherited the nickname "InBev," because he's now the world's largest Brewer.
Is it possible the Winter Of The Bottomless Checkbook still isn't over? Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are one of six teams interested in free agent pitcher Roy Oswalt (FanShot). The Brewer rotation appears to be full at this point, but if a pitcher of Oswalt's caliber is available the team could probably make room for him.
Of course, lots of people are still talking about Prince Fielder today. I didn't clip everything, but I wanted to point out Rob Neyer's concern that this might rank among the worst contracts ever. I think it seems unlikely, but that's my opinion.
Elsewhere in opinions I strongly disagree with, Al Yellon of Baseball Nation says the NL Central "could be the Reds' to lose." I'm having a hard time ranking them ahead of the Brewers or Cardinals.
In the minors:
- Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com unveiled his list of baseball's top 100 prospects last night, and two Brewers are on it: Wily Peralta (#49) and Jed Bradley (#97).
- Martin Maldonado had a big night last night, hitting a home run (which he might have pimped a little) to lead Mayaguez to a 5-2 win over Caguas and a berth in the Caribbean Series. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy for the picture.)
- Baseball Prospect Nation has unveiled a list of the Brewers' top 15 prospects, with Wily Peralta #1.
- Brock Kjeldgaard apparently narrowly missed the cut for Baseball America's 2012 prospect book, so they posted his scouting report online instead. (h/t @Mass_Haas)
- Wisconsin Sports Tap compiled a list of the top third basemen in the Brewer organization, led by Taylor Green.
- The Outside Corner says the Brewers have baseball's 28th best farm system.
- The Timber Rattlers have posted their final "Spot The Difference" of the offseason and it's a tough one: I only found one of the five answers.
We're going down to the wire in the voting for the #8 spot in our Community Prospect Rankings: As of this writing Michael Fiers leads Jorge Lopez by five votes. You have until 1 pm today to weigh in, and the voting for the ninth spot will open at 2.
Around baseball:
Cardinals: Signed reliever Jason Motte to a one year, $1.95 million deal to avoid arbitration.
Marlins: Signed outfielder Austin Kearns to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed infielder Robert Andino to a one year, $1.3 million deal to avoid arbitration.
Rays: Signed infielder Jeff Keppinger to a one year deal.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Andrew Bailey to a one year, $3.9 million deal to avoid arbitration.
Reds: Signed pitcher Nick Masset to a two year, $5.5 million deal to avoid arbitration, acquired infielder Wilson Valdez from the Phillies for pitcher Jeremy Horst and signed pitcher Jeff Francis to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Signed pitcher Scott Olsen to a minor league deal.
As you've probably already heard, today is Bob Uecker's 77th birthday. It was the topic of this morning's edition of Today In Brewer History, and Nick Prill of The Brewers Bar also used it as a reason to post a couple of classic Uecker pictures.
Meanwhile, Jeff Theis of the Winona Daily News has a note on Uecker's former partner, Cory Provus.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to staring at the calendar.
Drink up.
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This is the first I've heard of an Oswalt rumor.
I would like the move though. Narv-dawg would have to move to the pen, but to have a starting rotation all with era’s under 4 is tempting. Best or second best rotation in the NL.
by Mr. McGehee on Jan 26, 2012 10:40 AM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Whyyyyy?
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
There's no way the Brewers starting rotation will be as healthy as it was last year
They’ll need a #7 pitcher, if not #8 pitcher like most teams at some point. Having both Narveson and Estrada available to fill in the rotation isn’t only nice, it may be all but necessary.
by ecocd on Jan 26, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
SETH MCCLUNG
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
...is around until Mark Rogers comes off his suspension
;o)
(Nashville rotation: Peralta-Fiers-Rivas-Butler-unspecified 5th dude, which McClung wants to be but it could also be a lot of guys, like de la Cruz if he gets DFAed and accepts the demotion, or most logically Scarpetta)
I'd almost rather trade Wolf and keep Narveson in the rotation.
But if the team is concerned about pitching depth, keeping both players is probably a good idea.
by Noah Jarosh on Jan 26, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
I sense that Al and BLou might have a little tiff on the other BCB
Al Yellon of Baseball Nation says the NL Central “could be the Reds’ to lose.”
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I'd prefer to use Nega-Ninja for them.
…except that we would make peace with them in the end. That won’t work.
Maybe Dark Link…
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You can't judge Dark Link like that, man.
As far as he knows, real Link is the fake one, and he’s actually the Hero of Hyrule.
Bleed Cubbie Blue knows we’re the better one.
2011: A wasted year
That is true
As far as I remember, Dark Link never says anything. They just fight.
I should pull that game out again, I don’t think I ever finished it. I remember getting to that last fight as a kid, then stopping because I couldn’t beat Dark Link.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Stand on the left side and continuously crouch stab whenever he gets close
You’ll kill him eventually. You should get hit no more than once or twice.
Source: Loving and beating Zelda 2 many times.
Thanks
I may pull it out tonight. I have the GameCube disk that had the two NES games and the two N64 games. Ironically, if I decide to do that, I’ll be stopping my first playthrough of Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You don't even have to do that.
That whole fight was a test of patience. If you pressed the attack, you were toast. If you waited for him to make a move and the counter-attacked, it was a breeze, but you were Link, so of course you played offensively. you’d be crazy not to, right?
By the way, cwolf, if you think you loved it, you have nothing on my buddy’s dad. He played through the whole game with only 3 hearts, and never took damage.
2011: A wasted year
I feel like that would be impossible, but there are people who probably could pull that off.
Especially considering those annoying knights. Those knights were so annoying.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Also, don't you start that game with four "hearts"?
I use the term “hearts” loosely because I don’t know if you can call them hearts. You get Heart Containers, but the life bar doesn’t consist of “hearts”.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I hate to have to call you out
But there were no hearts. You had 4 health bars to start.
I also don’t believe he did it. The game is entirely too random to beat without damage. The best players in the world (see speeddemosarchive.com) still almost die many times.
The knights were actually not as hard as you think, but that’s because there was a trick. If you did a standing jumpslash and hit them right before you hit the ground, it always hit, 100% of the time.
The hardest parts for me were the bird knights in the final dungeon (I run past all but one of them now, not worth fighting) and enemies taking random, completely unexpected actions and knocking me into pits. So annoying.
i'm sorry, i was talking about Ocarina for N64.
As far as I’m aware, there have been no installments since then, as that game was perfect and it could only go downhill.
2011: A wasted year
I'll agree that Ocarina of Time was one of the best games in the series
It was so good that I actually own four copies of it:
- Original gold cartridge
- GameCube disk that came with reserving Wind Waker
- GameCube promotional disk with four different games on it
- 3DS version
However, I still have to say that Twilight Princess is the absolute best game in the series. No question about it. That game was amazing. It also had my favorite fight in the series, where you had to fight the giant skeleton on the spinner. Best. Fight. Ever.
If I had to rank the console games:
- Twilight Princess
- Ocarina of Time
- A Link to the Past
- Legend of Zelda (Original)
- Wind Waker
- Link’s Adventure
- Majora’s Mask
Even the last game on that list was still good (though not nearly as good as the rest). I can’t rank Skyward Sword yet since I haven’t played through it, but initial impressions are that it won’t be in the top three.
Also, I’m not going to try to rank the portable Legend of Zelda games. That would just be too hard. I’ll just say that they’re below the console games.
(Ah, the tangents of BCB. You’ll see so many different things if you go down one of these tangents.)
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Majora's Mask made me give up on the series, because that game was crap.
And I pretty much only had Nintendo for LoZ at that point, so I decided not to buy a gamecube/wii just for the future installments.
2011: A wasted year
I didn't hate Majora's Mask that much, but I can see why people didn't like it.
Nintendo also did more damage to the series when they decided to make Wind Waker with cell shading (still a good game, but a terrible decision). Twilight Princess is what the Legend of Zelda series should look like on consoles of the future. If it wasn’t a perfect game, it came very close. I played the GameCube version (which I’m glad I did because I didn’t have to deal with learning how to fight with a Wii remote), but I’m guessing either version is just as good.
Seriously, you do need to try that one. I wouldn’t blame you for not trying any other game in the series, but that one is one you have to play through. The story was so amazing that I probably shed a few tears at a few points, especially at the ending. There’s very few games that I feel this strongly about. Give Twilight Princess a try, you won’t regret it.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Majora's Mask is awesome
It’s all about atmosphere. I’m fine with the cel shading in Wind Waker, but the aborted storyline and missing dungeons are disappointing. Twilight Princess is awesome as well, with main point deductions coming from the tears fetch quests and the fact that it’s somewhat of an updated Ocarina of Time. Link to the Past is pretty much a perfect game. My personal ranking:
Link to the Past
Majora’s Mask
Link’s Awakening
Legend of Zelda
Twilight Princess
Ocarina of Time
Adventure of Link
Wind Waker
I haven’t played the other games yet.
No disrespect whatsoever
It’s just that the other games are that good.
Link to the Past
Never had it as a kid, never really got into it when I got older, but I just started playing through concurrently on my laptop emulator and my cell phone emulator (easier to pull out at work). 9 year old me missed out, man.
Twilight Princess is the shit...
But OoT is one of the best games of all time.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 5:59 PM CST up reply actions
I think this is one where we may have to agree to disagree
I do agree that Ocarina of Time was one of the best games of all time. I just think that Twilight Princess was better, and I think it was because of the realism of the game. One thing that bugs me a little bit is that some of these games (especially the later ones) get a little too goofy. I loved the realism in Twilight Princess, and while it still had some of those goof y moments, it had the realistic feeling that I had been looking for in the series for a long time.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
TP is a longer game, too.
Head-to-head, I think you are right, TP is probably a little better gameplay-wise. But OoT was such an influential game, and has so much cultural proliferation that I think overall it has to be called the better game. It is part of people’s lives and childhood. Moreover, you can say OoT was the best game in it’s generation- I’m not so sure I can say that about TP. I agree about realism, and I enjoyed the dark and grown-up side of TP. Skyward Sword sucks.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:52 PM CST up reply actions
You are definitely right about that for Ocarina of Time.
It did have a much bigger impact culturally than Twilight Princess.
Haven’t played far into Skyward Sword yet, but I can tell so far that it’s at least not going to be among my favorite games.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Yeah I played maybe an hour...
And watched my little brother play for a couple. I was disappointed.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 7:01 PM CST up reply actions
But, agree to disagree. Both awesome games.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:53 PM CST up reply actions
I do believe you now
OoT doesn’t have ridiculous randomness.
BTW, if you want to see that game completely dismantled, watch the speedrun here (download it and play it with VLC media player if you want to hear the audio commentary).
http://speeddemosarchive.com/ZeldaOcarinaOfTime.html#skipsSS
Well worth the hour and a half the video runs (yes, he beats it in an hour and a half including cutscenes).
Thanks for showing me this. It is the best website of all time.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:07 PM CST up reply actions
After you're done there
Go to tasvideos.org to see what a human could do playing perfectly.
Of ALL TIME
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:07 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm not a fan of Al Yellon at all. At. All.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 10:45 AM CST reply actions
the term "to lose"
Is pretty firm, and to me would imply that you think that team would be the run away winner.
I think the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds all have a shot and the percentage chance of each of those teams chances to win the division is close enough to the others that “to lose” is not a term I would use in describing the race.
Up for grabs would be more appropriate if you asked me.
by backtocali on Jan 26, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly, but then you don't really have an article...
It’s just fluff, really. His only rationale is that Pujols and Fielder left.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Agree completely.
I think it’s remote at best that any of the Cubs, Pirates, or Astros could have a surprise season the way of the 2011 D-Backs, and equally as likely for any of the Brewers, Cardinals, or Reds to be as good as 95 wins or as bad as 80 wins, depending on how things break. Big range, I know, but I’m not really confident in any of them.
I don't know,
i think he does a good enough job, and any prediction is just speculation at this point anyways. He makes some reasonable points in that article, even if I don’t agree with them.
2011: A wasted year
You're right. I wasn't referring exclusively to that article, though.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
I feel like he generally does a good enough job,
but I just read what he says with a grain of salt, because he does occasionally betray some bias against the Crew.
2011: A wasted year
Happy Birthday, Ueck!
Here’s to hoping for 50 more!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 26, 2012 11:05 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Seconded.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions
Just as long as he can live until they figure out how to keep heads alive in jars.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jan 26, 2012 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Why'd he only pitch 140 innings last year? 23 GS, same question
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
Okay?
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions
I suppose it was fairly obvious, but I thought it would be easier to ask than to research.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
Why take a risk on a starter who despite being injured part of the season last year, was still able to start 23 games, pitch 139 innings and put up a 2.5 fWAR?
Works out to just over 6 innings per game,
which is just about perfect for our bullpen.
2011: A wasted year
Reasoning?
His career-worst ERA of 4.12 (2009) would have placed 5th among the 2011 Brewers. His career-worst WHIP of 1.338 (2011) would have been 5th as well. His career-worst K/BB ratio of 2.57 (2007) would have been 4th. His career-worst ERA+ of 100 (2009) was 12 points better than Narveson last season, and also would have been 5th on the team.
In other words, if Roy Oswalt matches the worst performances of his career, he’d still be a better starting option than Narveson as a 5. If he’s marginally worse than his career averages, there isn’t even a comparison.
by mpbMKE on Jan 26, 2012 3:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You also forgot to mention
Despite pitching in less innings than both Wolf and Narveson, Oswalt had a higher fWAR than both.
By the way, last night I stumbled across the true origins of "Hello, I am a bear"
Apparently the Romanian announcers were familiar with this Russian meme.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jan 26, 2012 11:46 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Holy crap, "Hello, I am a bear" is a real thing?
MIND. BLOWN.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 26, 2012 12:49 PM CST up reply actions
The weird part is that I can totally see how that could be confused with Beast Mode.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
^^^ What he said. Maybe say NSFW next time.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
My bad.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I wasn't at work, and it was hilarious... So no problem :)
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
This would also be a good troll response.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Mike Ilitch looks like Craig Counsell's grandpa.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Rob Neyer piece about Fielder being the worse contract ever
Includes a link and quotes from somebody called Ryan Campbell on fangraphs which states
Only time will tell if he continues to be productive into his 30′s like David Ortiz and Jim Thome, or collapses like Mo Vaughn and Adam Dunn. Either way, it is clear that his best days are behind him.
Really? You can quite certainly state that a 27 year old player will never be as good as he has been? It is not an opinion that I share and I find it surprising that somebody was able to get away with such shaky analysis on a site such as fangraphs
Mo Vaughn had the best season of his career the year he turned 32
That’s five years from now for Prince.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
31, nevermind
But still.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Yeah, that quote stood out like a sore thumb.
Last year was his 2nd best year by WAR, and he’s absurdly uninjured. The entire analysis of other height-to-weight players, completely ignoring injury history, is pretty…shaky.
by Archibaldcrane on Jan 26, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions
I understand that in all likelyhood the last couple of years of the contract will not provide value for money
But once you account for inflation, if Fielder is worth close to $180million of todays dollars over the course of the contract ie averages at about 4 WAR or 75% of what he achieved last year, it will be pretty close to equating to what he makes in the next 9 years. That does not seem to be that outrageous a projection…
Also assumes WAR inflation increases at exactly the rate of general monetary inflation
It’s probably fair to say WAR in 5 years very well may cost $7 million in today’s dollars on the free agent market making Fielder’s deal better.
Are we still at $4.5 million per win?
If so, Fielder would have to average 5.3 WAR per season for it to be worthwhile for the Tigers, and that is a HUGE expectation from Fielder.
I believe it is considered to be $5million per win
9 years of 4WAR @ $5million is how I got to the $180million figure. Which once you factor in inflation is close to what the deal is worth. As ecocd rightly points out the value of a win is likely also to increase over time aswell.
I think the chances are that he underpreforms the contract value in absolute terms (although not as much as many people seem to think) but you can’t really put a price on what a WS is worth to the fans and the owner…
Reds to lose? Child please
They have the only the third best rotation in the NL Central, their bullpen doesn’t impress me (not sold on Madson at all), and they’re offense is similar to the Brewers.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Jan 26, 2012 1:21 PM CST reply actions
Possibly fourth best rotation, if the Cubs keep Garza.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Best. Show. Ever.
Do you like Alan?
by Mr. McGehee on Jan 26, 2012 1:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I've never even heard of it!
I really liked season 1 of The League, but season 2 didn’t seem as good for whatever reason.
It isn't on Netflix yet, so I can't comment,
but I didn’t notice any huge difference between 1 & 2.
2011: A wasted year
What show is this?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 26, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions
PA-Weighted 2011 wOBA, 3-4-5 Hitters
Tigers (Cabrera-Fielder-Young) = .3901 wOBA
Brewers (Braun-Ramirez-Weeks) = .3899 wOBA
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Dude, Weeks is gonna bat leadoff, duh.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions
Yes but using the BtC2000
Which clearly shows that now that Prince has escaped the regression field that permanently encompasses Milwaukee he will be worth at least 3 more wins, that will change. Plus there is no way Ramirez overcomes the regression field now that he has to spend 81 games inside it.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 26, 2012 2:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think it encompasses Milwaukee
It encompasses Cincinnati and St. Louis making their players less likely to regress. Milwaukee’s players are likely to regress at a normal rate.
BtC plays the percentages and centrality points. Even he’ll tell you that there’s variability in any projection – sometimes a lot of variability. He speaks with perhaps a bit more … absolute certainty than is appropriate, but it’s no fun to speak forcefully about a projection that says Braun will put up between 4.0 and 7.0 fWAR next year. Anyone vaguely familiar with WAR can tell you that without a simulation.
Second time you have done this sort of thing in a week
Young is nowhere near the third best hitter in that lineup, even though he may hit 5th (same goes for Weeks, as Two notes below). So you have arbitrarily thrown in a player that will help you prove your argument.
Not only that but you use last years numbers, for which both Braun and Ramirez were greatly inflated.
But to go with your players, you should be looking at projections instead of past results…using the Bill James data from fangraphs, your Tiger 3 players would get a .383 wOBA, while the Brewer 3 would get .374, not as close as you want it to appear.
And as the others might suppose above, just as an FYI, not only do I have Braun and Ramirez regressing, but I also have Joey Votto, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday regressing. The big additions for the Reds and Cards comes from pitchers coming to more normal years with bounce back types of numbers, and the additions of Latos and Wainwright.
by backtocali on Jan 26, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Dude, I don't care.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Jan 26, 2012 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
lol
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:55 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, but .383 and .374 are closer
than a lot of people would think. Most people believe the Tigers have one of the best lineups in baseball now, and probably wouldn’t think of the Brewers at all. Those #s show they’re wrong.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 26, 2012 6:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
.09 wOBA = a lot of runs over 162 games
Something in the magnitude of 50-60 runs.
by cwolf20 on Jan 26, 2012 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Wait, that's for a full team
So it would be about 20 or so for a group of 3 players, or 2 WAR.
by cwolf20 on Jan 26, 2012 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
((.009)/1.15)*(650*3) = 15.3 = 1.5 WAR (approx.)
But why are we using Bill James projections, again?
To account for Braun’s 2011 stats being “greatly inflated” relative to Cabrera, despite the latter having a lower career wOBA, having a higher 2011 BABIP, and being older?
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:11 PM CDT)
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