BCB Advanced Stat Pseudofantasy League
by SRB on Jan 27, 2012 10:05 PM CST
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Since there seemed to be some interest in doing a Brew Crew Ball "fantasy" league based around advanced stats, e.g. fWAR or rWAR or whatever, I decided to make a post to discuss a possible league. My original idea was to do a league that was aimed at being more "realistic" than traditional fantasy leagues; that is, if you were drafting an actual MLB 25-man roster for the 2012 season, who would you take, factoring in defense, offense, durability, etc. So in other words, basically what WAR attempts to measure (overall player value).
Carlos Gomez is actually sort-of a viable fantasy option!!! (via usatoday.net)
As a result of the difficulty in continually updating a league based on advanced stats, and since myself and probably others really like drafting fantasy teams but can lose interest in continually entering lineups as the season drags on, I think the league should be KittenMittons-friendly. That is, a main draft, maybe monthly updated standings, and then final standings to determine a winner, but no lineups, daily/weekly changes, trades, or add/drops. If a player gets hurt, he's replaced by someone from an exactly replacement-level farm system (0.0 WAR) just like would theoretically happen in real life. That also makes it easier to calculate team standings.
My initial idea, in the vein of being "realistic," was also to do 25-man rosters with roughly the same positions as a real team: C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF-C-IF-IF-OF-OF SP-SP-SP-SP-SP-(SP)-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP. That would end up giving the team's total WAR more than a real team would have, since people would presumably be drafting starters for their bench spots and thus giving the team an impossible amount of playing time, but it would be fairly close.
However! Everyone should propose whatever rules they think would be best. Cheeseandcorn proposed a scoring system more like traditional roto/category leagues that would break up WAR into it's component parts and score based on that. tcyoung had an interesting idea to draft by team-position, for example "Brewers CF" rather than Nyjer Morgan, but I think Fangraphs changed (?) such that it no longer seems possible to accurately filter fWAR by team-position, so that idea may not be feasible.
If anyone is either 1) interested in doing this league (you only need to commit for the draft, so feel free to show up on draft day, draft a team, and then zone out until final standings are announced at the end of the year!), or 2) would like to propose rules, please comment below!
Interested Parties:
SRB
Tepo6688
bcschles
Michael M
Mr Leam
ecocd
Cheeseandcorn
masondlo
Rendezvous
Saltire
NoahJ
Brewer 1 Fan
brewcrewshrew
Mr. McGehee
Jordan M
TwoShoesMcGoze
-JP-
Hyatt
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My proposed rules
Scoring:
Total fWAR (calculated for monthly standings and at the end of the year), via Fangraphs.com
Positions:
25-man roster: C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF-C-IF-IF-OF-OF SP-SP-SP-SP-SP-(SP)-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP
Position player eligibility based on 2011 games played (81+ or 50+%) or 2012 games played (81+ or 50+%) as calculated at the end of the year. Pitcher eligibility is based on 50% of appearances in either 2011 or 2012. Since there are no roster changes, if somebody miscalculates and drafts two players that end up only qualifying at one position and their bench is full (e.g. they have two players only eligible at 3B), the one with the higher fWAR gets the 3B spot and the position the other player was intended to qualify for is filled by a replacement level player from the minors (hereafter known as a Kjeldgaard).
Every team has an unlimited supply of Kjeldgaards to fill in for injured players, so if you draft Carlos Beltran to be your CF and his knee explodes in the first week of the season after he puts up -0.8 fWAR, your season total at CF will be Beltran + CF Kjeldgaard = -0.8 + 0.0 = -0.8 fWAR. Most Kjeldgaards are proficient replacement-level pitchers too, since all the Kjeldgaards in your farm system were originally drafted as pitchers before being moved so that’s why you shouldn’t worry about their ages ranging from 29-48 in AAA.
Draft:
I think the best way to do it would just be in the chat room of a Google document that also displays the players coming off the board and the different rosters. Easy and shouldn’t be a problem unless somebody gives the link to BUCKS and he spams the room.
If somebody doesn’t show up or drops in the middle of the draft or has to leave or whatever (which is not a problem), the league will draft for them from a list of the Houston Astros roster sorted by 2011 fWAR. This incentives people showing up if they don’t want Carlos Lee to be their first-round pick.
Teams:
We can either do the traditional inappropriate-fantasy-league team names, or since it’s supposed to be “realistic” could have people drafting for actual MLB teams depending on the number of people who want to do the league and general preference. Someone would only have to represent the St. Louis Cardinals if it gets to thirty people, I promise.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I'm interested
I’m confused about the Kjeldgaard rule, though. If the replacement player is automatically worth 0 WAR, isn’t that the same as just not replacing the player at all?
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 28, 2012 8:22 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, basically
But if a team in real life had to fill a position from the minors, and they had a boring farm system (exactly replacement level), the guy they called up would be worth 0.0 WAR.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I'm in
Although I am suggesting, nay demanding, the draft starts at a suitable UK time thereby ensuring I’m at my mental best (no, don’t laugh…) while my counterparts are half asleep.;.
Happy to go along with what anyone else wants.
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
Do we need to break every three rounds for tea, or is that only England?
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
That's definitely England
Here it’s a break after every two round for whisky. Or, failing that, methylated spirits…
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
What about straight up injury replacements?
Draft a starting 13 (1-8 + 5 starters) and those are your guys as long as they’re on the active 25-man roster.
If one of your starters moves off the 25-man roster for any reason (7-, 15-, 60-day DL, DFA), you can permanently and irrevocably replace him with any available Free Agent at that position. You never get the original guy back if you switch him out. He’s gone. Each position can only be backfilled once. If your Free Agent tears his ACL, you’re SOL.
This keeps record-keeping really clean:
Skipper McGee – 60-day DL – dropped 5/13 with +1.50 fWAR
Skooper McGoo – Free Agent – picked up 5/14 starting at +1.67 fWAR
At the end of the season you get Skooper McGoo’s final fWAR (3.67), subtract his starting fWAR (1.67) to get a final McGee + McGoo fWAR of +1.50 + 2.00 = +3.00
It creates some fun situations of people hoping their underperformer gets a concussion so they can pick up a rookie phenom.
That could work
Though it might make the league slightly less “realistic” (since people will generally be able to fill injuries for nothing by picking up relatively solid lower-tier starters, depending on the size of the league), and reduce the importance of the draft (since you can get off the hook of drafting a meltdown like 2011 Adam Dunn as soon as he goes on the DL for just a couple weeks)
Maybe the rule can be that you are able to add injury replacements this way if the player goes on the 60-day DL only (or he’s on the 15-day DL for a specified period of time)? That’s more realistic (a team would probably trade for a starter if they were hoping to contend) and prevents people from too easily dumping draft mistakes.
Or do people prefer ecocd’s rule that would allow for more “gaming” of the system by dropping a guy when he’s out for a week? All rules are open for debate!
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I like ecocd's rule
I don’t think it would lead to as much gaming as you might expect. Many of the biggest bombs last year – Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford, Casey McGehee, Alex Rios – didn’t go on the DL all year. And by the time you’d be able to conclude that a player was a bust, it’d probably be at least June, at about the time when teams start considering improving the position via trade, so being able to drop them would be realistic in that way.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 28, 2012 8:31 AM CST up reply actions
I actually was thinking it was a positive
It could be “gaming” the system, but I thought it would also serve to keep it interesting. Guys very rarely go extremely negative and the ones who do are rarely going to be drafted, in the first place. If you happened to get one of those rare duds, it’s going to take a lot of fun out of the league if you’re guaranteed to be stuck with them all season. This way you at least have the hope of either a legitimate injury or a pretend injury that gets the player off the roster.
Teams make up injuries all the time to get guys off the 25-man roster. This isn’t really any different.
It would require the league to be much more active though
If you can drop somebody and add the best player available every time somebody hits the DL for a week or two, you really need to actively follow your roster and the majors to not lose a huge advantage. That might be difficult to track for anybody; I know I tend to loose track of who’s on the DL in normal fantasy leagues where I’m supposed to be actively entering lineups, much less when the 25-man roster is just posted somewhere and I don’t remember all 25 players I drafted.
I was originally thinking that (since it’s player value) this would be more of an alternative to normal fantasy leagues such that there isn’t as much active maintenance required to compete.
I’m cool with your rule though! So far it sounds like more people want it than not.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I hadn't though about that.
I didn’t think it would be a big deal tracking 13 players, but if you’re in one or two other fantasy leagues, it could become a chore when this league is supposed to be simple. I guess it depends upon how much you want to micromanage your team. I don’t think I would bother replacing someone that only went on the 15-day unless they were absolutely killing my team.
I also like the idea of only having to draft 13 players instead of 25. There’s a lot less research that goes into drafting one SS than peering down into the depths of utility infielders and relief pitchers.
The original intent was to keep people from being permanently stuck with a guy that’s terrible. If people start getting serious about it, then I could see how even a relatively simple rule like my proposal could take a lot of time. I know the original proposal was a league that was essentially draft-it-and-forget-it.
Complexity creep is always an issue. Implement the 1 Replacement Rule and then you’ll have another rule that builds on that and another rule that builds on that, etc.
I think that that number of players on a team might be governed by
How many people actually want to play.
If it is 16 or less then even a 25 man roster would be by in largly filled with starting players.
If it starts getting over 16 then you start having to worry about who the bench players are on each team or which prospects are likely to be called up in the 1st half of the season etc. if you play with a 25 man roster.
We could break the draft up
e.g. Rounds 1-13, and then Rounds 14-25 or something like that another day. Since the draft is the only real commitment for the whole season I think that would be doable for people.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I'm Interested
This league sounds like it could be fun. Count me in!
I'm okay with this
"We’re gonna gather our nuts, and find out what the squirrels… we’ll be right back." - Brian Anderson
I would be interested in this
If only to try and actually win one of these BCB leagues…
Couple of questions:
1 The Draft – Auction or Snake – I figure without a dedicated draft program a snake draft would be easiest.
2 What happens to DH’s? Are they treated as 1B(with a penalty for not fielding) or not at all
I’ve never done an auction draft but I have no real preference. You’re right that snake would probably be easier.
DH is a tougher question. We could either have a DH roster spot and modify fWAR (changing positional adjustment and removing UZR, though that could end up being a lot of work) or just rule that DHs are 1B like you suggested. The latter wouldn’t be entirely accurate, but would probably be close enough and definitely easier.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Re: DH as 1B
I think the positional adjustment is -5.0 runs per 162 games, so fWAR would basically be treating them as -5.0 UZR/150 1B, which seems pretty fair.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Auction drafts are a lot more fun and involve a lot more real-world-ish strategy
But I’ve only participated in in-person auctions, not online. Anyone done an online auction? Is it too unwieldy?
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 28, 2012 9:00 PM CST up reply actions
I have done an Auction draft online
Indeed the BCB Div III baseball last year was an online draft. But it works only if you use a dedicated draft program from Yahoo or ESPN for example. To do it in a chat room would be chaos
I take it, there's more to a draft than
“ecocd takes Braun”
moderator updates google doc spreadsheet – cuts and pastes Braun from “Available” to ecocd’s team
“SRB takes Yuniesky Betancourt”
moderator updates google doc spreadsheet – cuts and pastes Mr. Golden Hands from “Available” to SRB’s team
to do an auction draft yes.
Somebody nominates a player and then in the designated time limited (20-30seconds usually) anybody can make a bid.
It requires a bit of a different and I think more strategy but as I said it is not really possible in a chatroom draft.
I feel like that would be doable in a chat
Snake is definitely easier though, true.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
How bout having 1 "minor leaguer" that can be called up once a year.
So then it would add more strategy about when to use your one injury replacement. And then if you have a guy missing the whole year you won’t be completely messed up.
Sign me up if their is still room!
So a 26th roster spot?
That could work, except it would only help if the injured player was at the same position as the lone minor league prospect.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
That "Top 3000 Minor League Prospects" list would finally come in handy.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
count me in.
I’m down for a 25 man roster.
by Mr. McGehee on Jan 30, 2012 10:34 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I'd most likely be in as well.
Only thing I’d bring up is the backups, so with the backups we get (especially if there’s less than 30 teams in the league), say I draft Pujols in the first round, and I can get Adrian Gonzalez in, say, the third round, and I draft him and use him as one of my bench infielders. That might not be the best in terms of realism, as you mentioned, but I don’t really see a simple way around it.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Good point
I think that’s going to have to happen to some extent unless there are 30 teams, because (say there end up being 15 teams), people will get starting players near the top-half of the league for their bench spots either way. But given the nature of the league it doesn’t seem feasible to restrict the PA of the bench spots (which would be the most realistic).
Maybe we could add a rule that you need to have all eight starting positions filled before your can double-up? That wouldn’t be hard to implement though it might not help that much.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
If the discussions are moving into back-ups, how involved is this getting?
Are we tracking WAR for all 25 players on the fantasy roster? Are we supposed to be selecting starting players each day/week/month? Are the back-ups there only in case of injury?
The more I think about it, the more work it becomes to prepare for even a simple snake draft. For a lot of people that already do Fantasy leagues there isn’t a whole lot of new research any given year, because players don’t change much from year to year. I don’t think I could name 4 starting SS in the majors. Researching Relief Pitchers alone could take over a week. Maybe Fantasy sports isn’t for me…
Well my original plan was a 25-man roster structured like a real 25-man roster, so everybody drafts a qualifying/eligible player for each position and then that’s their roster. Standings and total fWAR is calculated maybe monthly and the winner is the highest Total fWAR at the end of the season. No lineups or roster changes, though some people have since suggested some form of backup system or ability to replace injured players.
Even with a 25-man roster, you’d only need to know maybe the top 2/3rd starters at each position. You can always look at a list as you’re drafting; I can almost guarantee that you know most starters in the majors even if you can’t name them out of the blue. Relievers would be the most difficult, but I kind of find searching for a scrappy 6th RP to be the fun part :)
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
You couldn't name four starting shortstops?
by Noah Jarosh on Jan 31, 2012 10:23 PM CST up reply actions
Betancourt. Betancourt. Betancourt. Oh nooooo... !
< Insert nullact photoshop of Yuni’s head on Beetlejuice’s body >
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
How are the positions going to be categorized?
Are OF positions interchangeable? What about INF? Bullpen spots?
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 1, 2012 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF
C-INF-INF-OF-OF
SP-SP-SP-SP-SP-(SP)
RP-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Feb 1, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions
If I really think about it I'm sure I could
so it was hyperbole, I guess. To what SRB said, though, 2/3 of the starters at each skill position is still 160 players to become familiar with. In terms of relative production, I couldn’t tell you anything substantial about 100 of them if you gave me their names.
I suppose I know more about SS than most any position because of all of the comparisons I ran to Yuni and all of the options the Brewers could get to fill his position. Let’s make it 2B. I don’t know 2Bs in MLB.
And I as well would like to join.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 31, 2012 1:25 PM CST reply actions
Why not...
I guess I could join in as well.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I'm in.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:11 PM CDT)
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