Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while posting bail.
We're 19 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and over the weekend 12,118 Brewer fans crammed into On Deck for a small taste of baseball to help pass the time. Adam McCalvy has a story on the upbeat atmosphere and The Official Site has a slide show of photos from the event where John Axford signed a baby, Nyjer Morgan unveiled some new nicknames and Bob Uecker made a child cry.
This weekend's biggest story may have come from Zack Greinke, who told reporters he's still open to signing a long term extension despite the fact that he's currently operating without an agent. Tom Haudricourt quoted Greinke as saying Mark Attanasio is "probably the best owner in baseball."
Elsewhere in pitcher negotiations: Tom Haudricourt talked to Brewer negotiator Teddy Werner, who said the team has made "good progress" in an effort to avoid arbitration with Shaun Marcum. He didn't say this specifically, but the team has indicated in the past that they're working on a one year deal. Behind the JS paywall, Marcum talked to Todd Rosiak about a mechanical adjustment he's working on this winter.
Here's another reminder how far the Brewers are stretching the budget with this year's $100 million payroll: Cleveland.com says the team is getting just $12 million per season from their TV deal with Fox Sports Wisconsin. (h/t @Joe_Block) With that said, they're on pace to set another ticket sales record.
Rickie Weeks was in attendance this weekend and told reporters his ankle still isn't quite 100% (behind the JS paywall) following last season's severe sprain. With that said, he's been working out this winter with his younger brother Jemile and Prince Fielder. Aramis Ramirez was also in attendance and said he's looking forward to playing home games in a climate-controlled environment in April.
Meanwhile, Ryan Braun was not at On Deck but was still a major topic of conversation. John Axford became the latest Brewer to speak out in support of Braun. Tom Haudricourt noted that MLB will make no announcement if Ryan Braun's appeal is successful (it's supposed to be confidential), but Braun's representation will likely mention it.
Of course, On Deck wasn't the only place where cool things happened this weekend. Here at BCB, Grim Spandango posted "A Slugger Like You," an incredible parody of the Adele song "Someone Like You." Noah also shared his thoughts on Prince Fielder's departure as someone who's grown up with Fielder in the organization. Also, Tigers fans write songs too.
It'll be interesting to see if the Brewers change their strategy a bit this season with Prince Fielder gone and Ryan Braun potentially missing some time. The Associated Press suggests the team could alter their approach, but Craig Calcaterra threw cold water on the theory.
This is pretty incredible, when you think about it: High Heat Stats notes that with 796 games played, Corey Hart is now the Brewers' active career leader. That was also the topic of last week's Thursday Thinker.
We do have one minor transaction to report this morning: Baseball America is reporting the Brewers have signed pitcher Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal. Chulk is 33 and has a career 4.33 ERA in 252 relief appearances, but hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009. He spent 2010 in Japan and 2011 in the A's organization, where he posted a 3.36 ERA for AAA Sacramento.
In the minors:
- Francisco Rodriguez's winter ball season is over as Aragua beat La Guaira 3-1 on Sunday to win the Venezuelan final and advance to the Caribbean Series. In the Dominican Republic, the final series is tied 4-4 with Carlos Gomez and Aguilas scheduled to take on Escogido in the decisive game nine today.
- Project Prospect listed Jed Bradley as the Brewers' #1 prospect. (h/t @THTlinks) Bradley was fifth in our Community Prospect Rankings.
- Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of the best shortstops in the Brewer organization, led by Yadiel Rivera.
- Rivera will likely be a Wisconsin Timber Rattler in 2012. The T-Rats will be making ten appearances on Time Warner Cable Sports 32.
- Brewer Nation continued their player-by-player look at the 2012 Brewers with this profile of Santo Manzanillo.
- The Baseball Historian has an interview with Seth McClung, who will be in Brewer minor league camp this spring.
- 2011 Wisconsin closer Greg Holle is now on Twitter, and has been added to the list. (h/t @Mass_Haas)
At last check Jorge Lopez leads Caleb Gindl by about 40 votes in the balloting for the #9 spot on our Community Prospect Rankings. You have until 1 pm today to cast your vote, and the voting for #10 will open at 2.
Around baseball:
Astros: Signed pitcher Zach Duke to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed infielder Ryan Theriot to a one year, $1.25 million deal.
Phillies: Signed outfielder Hunter Pence to a one year, $10.4 million deal to avoid arbitration and signed outfielder Juan Pierre to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Signed pitcher Daniel Cabrera to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Signed outfielder Kyle Hudson to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher John Maine to a minor league deal.
Early in the weekend it was widely reported (including in a FanShot here) that the Cardinals had signed Roy Oswalt, but that has since been refuted. Jason Brannon of Baseball Nation wants to know what the Brewers and Reds should do if that deal comes to fruition.
The Miller Park retractable roof is great, but this makes me wonder about its longevity: The Mariners held their annual fan fest this weekend with the Safeco Field roof partially open because the mechanism to open and close it has broken down.
In former Brewers:
- @Mass_Haas noted that longtime Brewer farmhand Robert Hinton, who I've previously written about here and here, has signed with the Orioles.
- Reader TWreck has a two part interview with former Brewer Paul Wagner.
- The A's are giving away Rollie Fingers bobbleheads this season.
- Junior Spivey celebrated his birthday on Saturday, and Plunk Everyone notes that his 35 career HBP are the fourth most ever for a major leaguer born on January 28.
- Jim Edmonds and Trevor Hoffman made For Baseball Junkies' 2000s All-NL team.
Here's today's best sabermetrics note: Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that while reliever usage has changed over time (with pitcher outings getting shorter nearly every season for decades), reliever effectiveness hasn't really improved.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to get back in the saddle.
Drink up.
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Comments
Uecker
That article about him unintentionally making a kid cry at the On Deck event over the weekend is pretty funny.
Experiment
In the ongoing discussion over whether strikeouts matter (they don’t matter for hitters, but they are an indicator for pitchers), I’m going to take a few pitchers and recalculate their number of strikeouts based on the likelihood of the hitters they faced striking out. For example, striking out Todd Helton (71 K in 491 PA) is worth 1.1 K, but striking out Bill Hall (63 K in only 199 PA) is worth .8 K.
Anyway, the calculation is time consuming. I was going to compare two pitchers with equal K/9 for last season – Gallardo and Garza – to see what the results look like, but if anyone is interested in this and has a pitcher they want included, let me know.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Very interesting idea
It would be cool to see on a larger scale if an easier method for calculating could be developed. I wouldn’t mind seeing ax and grienke.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 30, 2012 12:07 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
I'd like to see Zack Greinke if you have time
by tcyoung on Jan 30, 2012 12:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Results so far
Gallardo 2011: 207 K, Adjusted 201.9 (97.6%)
Greinke 2011: 201 K, Adjusted 189.3 (94.2%)
Mark Attanasio is the best.
More results
C. Kershaw: 248 K, Adjusted 244.9 (98.8%)
John Axford: 86 K, Adjusted 85.6 (99.6%)
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Lefty Righty splits?
Given that some pitches are more effective against LHB and RHB could that be important? For starting pitchers not really as much, but with relief pitchers that could make a big difference. I love the idea.
Is the time consuming part primarily data acquisition?
by ecocd on Jan 30, 2012 12:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Sort of
I can easily get a listing of all of a pitcher’s outcomes vs. each player for the regular season, one player per line. And I can get a listing of all of the players performances for the entire season, one player per line, and calculate the value of getting a strikeout against them.
(0.191*2)/((K/PA)+0.191)The time consuming part is matching up the value to the pitcher vs. player results, and summarizing the value in a spreadsheet. I could probably spend extra time formatting the data and using VLOOKUPs, but I’d prefer to do it by hand until I’m used to what the results look like.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
This is why SAS and Proc SQL are my friends.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Sure, if you have all day.
This task is easily handled by a subquery.
select (0.191*2)/((select K/PA from hitters where hitters.name = pitchers.strikeout_victim)+0.191)
Boom.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Only if you can point me to some place where it can all be downloaded
or send me the spreadsheets.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
SAS programming tangent
You really never can tell where this board is going to end up.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
You're awesome
and I fully endorse this project. Even though I don’t think I could contribute anything valid like Yar. But I’ll eagerly anticipate your results.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
It is interesting, but
Is it logically valid? I mean, how does it make sense to use strikeout ratios that “don’t matter” to help validate other strikeout numbers?
"Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that."
oops. reply fail.
"Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that."
Well, strikeouts don't matter as far as hitters are concerned
In that they are no different than any other out. Just like a walk being the same as a hit – the player gets on base – a strikeout is the same as any other out. What they are useful for is in examining a pitcher’s ability to get hitters out. A pitcher who is striking out fewer hitters from year to year is projected for poorer results over time (FIP) based on fooling fewer batters and relying more on his defense to collect outs.
All I was curious about was whether there were significant differences between pitchers, and if there were some who were earning more of their strikeouts against more difficult hitters, or vice versa, padding their stats against weak hitters and unable to fool the toughest hitters.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Hang on a minute.
“…they are no different than any other out. Just like a walk being the same as a hit – the player gets on base – a strikeout is the same as any other out.”
Now that just isn’t true.
Here is the torch, enjoy carrying it forward from here.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
by nullacct on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I love you, man
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
lol...
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 30, 2012 6:43 PM CST up reply actions
You're right
A walk is only about .7 times the value of a single. A strikeout is about .01 runs worse than any other out.
disagree.
A strike out Is not the same as “any other out.” A sac fly is an out but it gets a run home or moves a runner.
by Brew_Crew on Jan 30, 2012 11:02 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
He said "as far as hitters are concerned"
Whether it be a strikeout, fly out or ground out… the hitter is still out (aka does not reach base safely).
He’s not talking about it from the standpoint of increasing the odds of scoring a run.
Am I the only one to see this resemblance?


Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Not anymore.
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
by Grim Spandango on Jan 30, 2012 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I think that was posted back during the original celebration.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Yep
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
When JP said that someone mentioned it back then, I was deeply afraid I had done so and forgotten.
Thankfully it was you.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Two stories so far today that are interesting
- Bill Hall may sign with the Yankees on a minor-league deal.
- Victor Martinez needed microfracture surgery & repairs to his meniscus today. It will take 6-8 weeks to heal from that, and then he can have the ACL reconstruction surgery.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I love it.
quoted Greinke as saying Mark Attanasio is "probably the best owner in baseball.
Greinke doesn’t do lip service.
2011: A wasted year
by Tepo6688 on Jan 30, 2012 1:47 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Brewers will announce their bobbleheads for 2012 over the Bernie Brewer twitter account.
Bobblehead #1 on 4/22: Jonathan Lucroy
I think I will want to get this one.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
They're announcing 1 per day this week (with two announced on Thursday)
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Here's a pic of the bobblehead

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I just realized how weird the glove hand looks.
That can’t be right. It looks like he’s holding his glove with his hand, rather than his hand being in the glove.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Looks like he's holding a Calzone with his batting glove.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jan 30, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Did you not know he suffers from the well-konwn catcher injury of "Pizza Pie Nipple"?
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
by MrLeam on Jan 30, 2012 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Catcher injury? Shouldn't it be
Piazza Pie Nipple?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
I know Mike and Felix, but who's the last one?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Jan 30, 2012 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He's with the band now.
Surprised you guys didn’t hear that.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jan 30, 2012 2:44 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
Might as well photoshop a beer in his other hand (instead of a ball).
Make it look like he’s eating dinner.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Oh, I thought that was some kind of sandwich.
Didn’t think of tambourine…
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I guess I should have looked at the actual image
It’s clearly a tambourine at full size.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Hey Mister Tambourine man, play a song for me
In the jingle jangle morning I’ll come followin’ you
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
He's with the band... so he eats sandwiches now.
by tcyoung on Jan 30, 2012 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
EAT THE SANDWICH DAVE
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions
You made me hungry now.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jan 30, 2012 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Always the Cookie Monster...
NEVER the Vegetable Monster.
(Also, the pending battle between Rubie & nullacct this year could be quite interesting.)
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
by -JP- on Jan 30, 2012 3:25 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm shaking my fist at you now.
Your subliminal messaging worked. A few hours after reading this, I start thinking that a calzone would be nice for dinner tonight. Then, I remembered your comment. After that, I still found myself wanting a calzone for dinner.
Guess I’m going to Pizza Hut for dinner tonight. I’ll be shaking my fist at you the whole way.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You'll thank me later.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
And then later yet, he'll curse you again.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 30, 2012 7:51 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Randy Wolf is going to get 50
so he can twist their heads off when he’s pissed off at his wife for trying to tell him what to do.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 30, 2012 3:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Spring Training question
My brother and I are considering a trip to AZ for Spring Training. For anyone that’s been there relatively recently, how much interaction is there with players? We could go to a lot of Brewers games in Milwaukee where the games count for the price of spending 5 days in Arizona watching minor league players for 4 innings each game. There must be other reasons to go to Spring Training other than baseball on the field.
Because out on the lawn seating there are college girls sunbathing.
Because of Mexican food.
Because there is sunlight.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
The level of accessibility of the players in ST is far higher than any other time.
You can probably actually hold a conversation with a player should you want to.
Thanks for the input, all
It’s still a difficult choice, but now I have more information at hand. The winter in Chicago has been obscenely mild (forecasting 49 degrees Sunday, i.e., warmer than Opening Day in Wrigley – HA!) so I’m not jonesing for warm weather as much as I usually am.
well, it depends on what you do
i go almost every year. if you show up early and stick around in maryvale, player access is okay, actually. it’s not that way at all the stadiums. if you do like minor leaguers, the access to those fields is ridiculously good in maryvale, and again, may not be at other stadiums.
i haven’t stopped by on an off day, but i’ve heard the major leaguers are often on the side fields and more accessible.
by Capt Science on Jan 30, 2012 4:47 PM CST up reply actions
Same thing up here.
I think the coldest high we’ve had all winter was 13, and it was over 30 a couple days after that. Going to be in the high-30s low-40s for the next 5 days. Remember when an El Nino winter meant 12 feet of snow?
75 here today.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Weather good now
but chances I am all brrr-y on my first trip to Des Moines in April: high. because it would figure that weather would be better on 30 January than on 25 April.
Definitely one of the biggest perks.
Got to talk to Weeks and Fielder for a little bit each.
2011: A wasted year
By the way, here's the fake-out headline of the day
Angels Sign Francisco Rodriguez
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
They're going to have two Francisco Rodriguezes when we trade K-Rod for Morales?
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
That's the guy we (in Halo-land) call "The Mexican Francisco Rodriquez."
As opposed to the Venezuelan version, who is by far the better pitcher.
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
Halo-land
I first thought of this when I read that comment:

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Brewers apparently signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Jan 30, 2012 4:37 PM CST reply actions
I don't know about that
He hit pretty well in Nashville last time around, and that’s all he’s being signed for this time around (minor league depth). At least that’s what they’re saying now.
Regarding TV revenue...
Stumbled across this bit from the Journal from May 1993. Sal Bando, what a jackrod. Also note the sidebar quote from John Norquist telling the Brewers to be honest about public financing for what would become Miller Park.
Also, for the heck of it, Forbes’ team valuation of the Brewers, apparently through 2011; 22nd in baseball, just behind the… ahem… Detroit Tigers.
Also, I hate the Cardinals
Don’t know if I can support the use of rally squirrel this season. Look what Topps decided to do.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Falconry, anyone?
We need some raptors on hand at the stadium to kill any squirrels that start nosing around Miller Park this year.
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
Talk to @MillerParkHawk
He might be interested in the job.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector











































