Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 31, 2012 10:15 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while flying your tiny blimp.
We're 18 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training and the Brewers are using what will likely be a slow news week to announce their 2012 bobbleheads, one at a time. Yesterday they announced that Jonathan Lucroy will be the first player featured on April 22. Follow @Bernie_Brewer to see today's announcement.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have released the final version of their 2012 schedule. Tom Haudricourt has the changes (which mostly involve Saturday game times being adjusted to accommodate national TV) behind the JS paywall.
Given our current lack of other developments, it's possible we'll have wall-to-wall coverage of this for the rest of the week: Nyjer Morgan is going to work out with the NHL's San Jose Sharks tomorrow.
Yesterday I mentioned that the Brewers reported progress in their negotiations with Shaun Marcum, and suggested a one year deal is probably still the most likely outcome. Reviewing the Brew has a counter proposal: They want the team to sign him for four years.
Most of yesterday's news centered around quotes gathered at On Deck this weekend. The Janesville Gazette's Peace and Glove blog was there and shared some pictures from the festivities.
The Brewers made a minor transaction yesterday, leading to some minor irritation: They signed outfielder Corey Patterson to a minor league deal (FanShot). He won't be invited to big league spring training, but is invited to early minor league camp and is expected to play left field for Nashville. Patterson is a career .252/.290/.400 hitter in 1230 major league games over 12 seasons, and was a Brewer briefly in 2009.
With that said, maybe a deep breath is in order. Bill Petti of Beyond the Box Score has a chart showing the Brewers are the best team in baseball at keeping below replacement level players off the field, and just 6% of their players since 2002 have had sub-zero wins above replacement totals. That blew my mind a little.
In the minors:
- Tom Haudricourt has lists of non-roster invitees to spring training and minor leaguers invited to early camp. The former list is all names we've seen before, but this is the first time I'd seen the latter.
- Carlos Gomez's winter league season is over, as he went 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts in Aguilas' 6-5 loss to Escogido, who won the Dominican final series 5-4. You can read more about that in today's Winter League Notes.
- The Caribbean Series opens Thursday and Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs has a list of the major leaguers involed, including Martin Maldonado of Mayaguez.
- Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of the top outfielders in the Brewer organization, led by Logan Schafer.
- Brewer Nation's "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series continues today with a profile of Brock Kjeldgaard.
- The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have the first of many videos to promote their Opening Day bobblehead giveaway.
Meanwhile, Caleb Gindl leads Cody Scarpetta by about 35 votes for the #10 spot in our Community Prospect Rankings. We'll close that poll at 1 today and open the voting for #11 at 2.
If you're easily angered or discouraged you might want to skip today's projections and power rankings:
- The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog used Marcel projections to predict 81 wins and a third place finish for the Brewers.
- The Hardball Times has them winning 79 games, which turned my stomach a bit. (h/t Lookout Landing)
- The Outside Corner has the Brewers 13th.
- Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune has the Brewers 17th and uses some epic hindsight to blast Doug Melvin for Ryan Braun's contract extension.
Around baseball:
Angels: Signed pitcher Francisco Rodriguez (the other one) to a minor league deal.
Braves: Signed pitcher Buddy Carlyle to a minor league deal.
Cubs: Signed pitcher Trever Miller.
Indians: Acquired infielder/outfielder Russ Canzler from the Rays for cash.
Orioles: Signed pitchers Armando Galarraga and Pat Neshek and catcher Ronny Paulino to minor league deals.
Rangers: Signed manager Ron Washington to a two year contract extension through 2014.
Rays: Outfielder Justin Ruggiano is expected to refuse an outright assignment to the minors and become a free agent.
Yankees: Signed pitcher Manny Delcarmen to a minor league deal.
In former Brewers:
- Dennis Sarfate is remaining in Japan with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012.
Outdoor hockey is a pretty big sporting fad lately, but it's worth noting that it comes at a significant cost: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is having all of its turf replaced before Opening Day after the old surface was ruined by the ice rink.
The Angels have spent a lot of money on the free agent market this winter, but it's also worth noting that they're taking a significant hit in the draft: They lost their 2012 first and second round picks when they signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and won't pick for the first time until the second half of the third round.
The Brevard County Manatees (@BCManatees) note that it's a pretty big day for baseball birthdays, as Nolan Ryan, Ernie Banks and Jackie Robinson were all born on January 31. Today In Brewer History has a fourth name to add to that list: Yuniesky Betancourt turns 30 today.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going back to drawing pineapples.
Drink up.
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Sub-.500 AND staring up at the Cubs?
His jiggling is almost hypnotic.
by Morbidly-Obese, Right-Handed Jamie Moyer on Jan 31, 2012 10:28 AM CST reply actions
Yuniesky Betancourt turns 30 today.
Or so his “birth certificate” states.
Also, Justin Timberlake's golden birthday, ladies.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 2:38 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, cry me a river, morineko
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
What goes around comes back around, Charlie
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Quality K's, continued
I’ve got a process worked out so it doesn’t take long to do each pitcher (<5 min.). I’ve also decided only to use the top starters from each team, because relievers end up skewing the results for a number of reasons. So far, Brewers:
MIL Yovanni Gallardo 207 201.94 97.6%
MIL Randy Wolf 134 130.09 97.1%
MIL Shawn Marcum 158 149.19 94.4%
MIL Zach Greinke 201 189.30 94.2%
MIL Chris Narveson 126 117.64 93.4%
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Is there a reason they're all under 100%
Is there any credit given for striking out great hitters? Is it a theoretical zero-sum game across all pitchers and the relief pitchers are soaking up the Quality K’s?
I'm wondering if it's an NL/AL thing
Correct me if I’m wrong null, but you’re using the MLB K/PA average, correct? I haven’t looked this up, but intuitively I would think that the NL K/PA average would be higher because of pitchers batting, which would artificially depress the “value” of a strikeout for an average NL hitter, and thus lower the Quality K ratio for NL pitchers.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
2-time BCB Fantasy Baseball Champion
I don't think there's anything artificial about it.
The %s might not be as comparable across leagues, but the adjusted numbers should be I think.
It's possible...
I did use the data from interleague play, and used the NL default (.191) instead of the AL (.180) for those equations, but they don’t amount to much. Then again, the margin in the final equation is pretty narrow anyway.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
I haven't nailed it down exactly
But it’s probably due to situational usage of pitchers – relievers used to their advantage vs. starters who must face everyone, and the equation is parabolic and the mean and median might not overlap. Someone who’s more mathy than me can confirm that. Anyway, I’ve run out of free time for now to analyze the data so I give you the results for the starters in the NL Central:
CHC Ryan Dempster 191 187.67 98.3%
CHC Carlos Zambrano 101 98.77 97.8%
PIT James McDonald 142 138.63 97.6%
MIL Yo. Gallardo 207 201.94 97.6%
MIL Randy Wolf 134 130.09 97.1%
HOU Bud Norris 176 170.49 96.9%
STL Edwin Jackson 148 148.93 100.6% (96.7%)*
CHC Randy Wells 82 79.12 96.5%
CIN Johnny Cueto 104 100.33 96.5%
CIN Edinson Volquez 104 99.95 96.1%
CHC Casey Coleman 75 71.72 95.6%
STL Chris Carpenter 191 182.54 95.6%
CHC Matt Garza 197 188.23 95.5%
PIT Charlie Morton 110 105.06 95.5%
PIT Jeff Karstens 96 91.62 95.4%
PIT Kevin Correia 77 73.33 95.2%
CIN Homer Bailey 106 100.81 95.1%
STL Kyle Lohse 111 105.40 95.0%
STL Jake Westbrook 104 98.52 94.7%
CIN Mike Leake 118 111.71 94.7%
PIT Paul Maholm 97 91.72 94.6%
MIL Shawn Marcum 158 149.19 94.4%
STL Jamie Garcia 156 147.11 94.3%
MIL Zach Greinke 201 189.30 94.2%
HOU Jordan Lyles 67 63.00 94.0%
MIL Chris Narveson 126 117.64 93.4%
HOU Brett Myers 160 149.03 93.1%
CIN Bronson Arroyo 108 99.96 92.6%
HOU J.A. Happ 134 123.62 92.3%
HOU Wandy Rodriguez 166 150.62 90.7%
Edwin Jackson’s numbers include his AL totals because I couldn’t separate them without a disgusting amount of work, and as GoGregGo points out, there is a difference between K/PA in the NL and AL (NL 19.1% vs. AL 18.0%), which invalidates his total. However, the AL/NL difference does not explain the sub-100% totals, because the NL average was used, not the MLB average. E.Jackson’s numbers roughly corrected for AL participation should drop him to about 96.7%.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Why they're all less than 100 percent.
Based on the formula that nullacct shared yesterday, we know that a strikeout of an average player is worth 1 K, a “free-swinger” worth less than 1, and a “tough out” more than 1.
The percentage is obtained by dividing adjusted Ks by original Ks, however, this percentage could also be thought of as the average “difficulty score” a pitcher’s strikeouts represent. Therefore, for a pitcher to exceed 100%, they must strike out tough outs MORE OFTEN than free-swingers. Obviously a pitcher who can get tough outs will be able to strike out free swingers, each of which lowers his score.
The more interesting thing to sort by (if it made a real difference) would be the actual adjusted Ks, to see if there is a noticeable change in ranking.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Gold Games
What is the deal with the Gold Games on the schedule? Some are against good teams and some are against bad. Limited seating? More/less expensive? Brewers wearing those sweet beer-colored uniforms?
by Marcum in the Middle on Jan 31, 2012 10:52 AM CST reply actions
summer weekends
I think that the Gold games are all on the summer weekends (June-August). In recent years those games have all sold out, no matter what the giveaway items are, so the Brewers feel that the higher demand for tix commands a higher price.
Yeah, when I heard about that, I wasn't too happy
Because of work, generally the only time I can get to games is on the weekend, especially during the summer. While this won’t stop me from going to games completely, I may be attending one or two less this summer because of the increased costs.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You aren't the only one, and that's why they've raised the price.
It was a smart move from a business standpoint. people are going to continue ot pack the house on a Saturday during summer.
by tcyoung on Jan 31, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that it makes sense from a business view.
I’m just not happy about it. I may have to find some friends here in Madison who would actually want to go to those games so I could split parking & gas costs to save some money. If I go to a game by myself this year, I’m looking at around $70 for a summer weekend game. That’s a bit expensive.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I am always interested in a weekend game here or there coming from Madison,
But you may have to deal with a baby.
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 31, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
I am quite happy with ticket price increases
In fact, if it leads to a continued elevated payroll level, I’d be fine with another price increase.
Then again, I’m not a seat snob: I’ll sit in the 400s every game. Being there and experiencing the game is enough for me.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm a seat snob
but also am fine with the price increases. The Brewers are still one of the most affordable teams to go see.
It also helps if you look around for promotions. Last year I purchased one of those coupon sheets that had free ticket vouchers and 1/2 price coupons.
Yeah, last year I got a pair of $50 each outfield box tickets vs. the Cubs for $22 each during a promotion
Its not hard to find affordable, great seats. Barring that, however, I have no problem sitting in the terrace reserved. The view is actually very good for the most part.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
There aren’t many places where the view is horrible. My biggest gripe is usually the people sitting near me as opposed to where I’m actually sitting.
This, a thousand times.
There aren’t bad seats at Miller Park, but you can get a really, really poor atmosphere when you’re surrounded by drunks, people who can’t sit down and the like who came to the game because there where cheap tickets available.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 31, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I've been around irritating people in every section from infield box to terrace reserve
There was a guy in field infield box one time who screamed at a kid standing up in front of him “SIT THE FUCK DOWN”.
So, I think equating ticket price with idiocy isn’t the right way to go.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 4:01 PM CST up reply actions
I agree that there are idiots in every section
but I’ve had more problems with people in the cheaper sections than the more expensive ones.
Yeah....
… this, far more than money, is why I go to fewer games now that I have a kid than I did before. We generally go only 1-2 times per year as a family, and about once a year I go down on my own with a buddy. I hate it because I tend to be a bit of a populist at heart, but I’m a lot more willing to take my 7 year old to pricey section than I am to cheaper sections. It’s not a cure-all, but it definitely cuts down on the number of times I hear a shouted curse-word. I’m still about 6 years (or more) from him being old enough that I no longer worry about what he hears or sees.
It’s a shame really, but it’s hardly unique to Miller Park.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 31, 2012 8:11 PM CST up reply actions
definitely not just a Miller Park thing
See my post below about Target Field. My experiences at the Metrodome also bear this out. Lots more bad behavior in the upper deck than in the cheap part of the lower deck, and the cheap part of the lower deck was worse than the expensive part. Except when the Red Sox were in town. Apparently drunk Sox fans with more money than sense or alcohol tolerance get into fistfights, who knew?
Lambeau's as bad or worse, probably worse.
I won’t even take him there unless we’ve got club seats.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 31, 2012 9:58 PM CST up reply actions
talk to SgtCluels
who has a full season strip in the 200 level and has had to move multiple times due to drunks and awful folks around them.
by Nicole Haase on Jan 31, 2012 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
I don't sit in the bleachers
But my experience is that from 100 to 400, the idiots are about evenly spaced.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
Field view at Target Field
or, “this”. Even better , go on a Thursday when it’s drunks on work outings + old ladies. Add 35-degree temps and it’s good to go.
/I miss roofs
Counterargument
The team could probably avoid the negative press of raising ticket prices and still raise revenue if they just reduced the practice of doing things like selling $50 seats for $22 during promotions.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
The issue with that is the assumption that the seat would still sell without the promotion
$22+ potential concessions > an empty seat.
so maybe just revise the promotions to more short term things or games that are very undersold?
(I am also making assumptions that the ticket people arent doing this already)
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
This is the reason they do promotions.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
I know they promote with the goal of selling tickets that won't sell otherwise.
But if demand is so high that they have to raise prices across the board to maximize revenue, then perhaps they should look at the volume of tickets available on the cheap, and the possibility that they’re costing themselves money by selling discounted tickets to people who would’ve paid full price.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Demand isn't high for all games
and I think the new pricing levels reflect the games that are likely to sell out (marquee and gold games). Those same games probably do not have many (if any) discounted tickets available.
I also am not sure if the increased ticket prices is solely for the purpose of increasing revenue… they are also likely doing it to offset increased costs.
Instead of $22, you go $25, and it's similar to raising prices by a dollar across the board.
I don’t think the savings add up in the end, though. as most discounted tickets are those that wouldn’t otherwise sell (as mentioned above).
Which is why the Gold and Blue games are brilliant.
They’ve effectively raised prices on games that are sure to sell, without having the newspaper write a story saying, "Brewers raise all of their prices.
Now granted, they’ve raised their prices in addition to these Gold/Blue games, but it doesn’t look as bad.
As long as the team doesn't drop out of contention.
Which seems like a given to me, but apparently not everyone agrees.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 31, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Key Phrase being
“As long as”
I think they are going to contend, Braun out 50 or not. And almost agree wholeheartedly with mpb’s statement below about it being a tight race bewtween the Cards, Reds and Brewers.
Sad thing about that, given DM’s knack for holding onto guys even if they fall out of contention, DM will not feel they truly have, thus stuck with 2 big name trading chips gone with only draft picks as comp.
We're officially still in the
“it’s going to be a close race” phase. But how many games into the season will it take this year for us to start manically alternating between “the Brewers are awful and will never get close to winning” and “the Brewers are great and will easily win it all” depending on the results of the last three games?
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
if that's a question looking for an answer
i give it a week.
by Capt Science on Jan 31, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
"Fall out of contention"
Unless they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, I doubt DM will trade anyone away (and there’s no reason to). You only have to look at last season to see that.
by sjlee on Jan 31, 2012 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
And you only need to look at the previous two years to 2011
To see that DM doesnt tend to trade guys away when he should.
I’m not expecting them to be out of it at all by the deadline, but if some catastorphic injury were to occur or it just doesnt work out. I dont think DM or MA have it in them to know when to cut bait and build for the future.
I'm putting on my BtC hindsight hat...
Ryan Braun!
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
I know Fielder is the answer there.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jan 31, 2012 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
What was he going to get for two end-of-the-line vets who were going to be free agents?
AA depth?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Jan 31, 2012 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
AA depth is being kind
Maybe salary relief, but then he’d be accused of not knowing how to run the Brewers financially.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 31, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I believe the trade deadline in 2009 was July 31st
The Brewers were in 3rd place and 4.5 games out of first on that date.
by sjlee on Jan 31, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I was on the record back in 2009 as saying the team should have looked to move both Cameron and Hoffman
Cameron had a hot start to his season, and Hoffman was an all-star. We would have gotten something back for them, in addition to salary relief. Good relief pitching is usually over-valued at the trade deadline. It was pretty clear by mid-July — after Weeks went down with the wrist injury — that we weren’t going to contend.
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
by Brew Angel on Jan 31, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
They were 46-43 at the midpoint of July
“I know we’re 2 games out of 1st place, but its clear we’re out. I’m trading away players” – Doug Melvin.
You’re kidding, right?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 31, 2012 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I commend you for your username.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
This would be my response to Phil Rogers:
1) White Sox suck.
2) Cubs swallow.
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
It was unbelievably idiotic
and embarrassing.
by Tristram28 on Jan 31, 2012 1:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I do blame Ryan Braun for signing a team friendly contract
and also for being awesome at baseballing.
That article was weird
Rogers is sort of like a fan – has players/teams/people he irrationally likes and dislikes, Braun got on the wrong side apparently.
Get a ife broseph
Wow
All bias aside, that really is one of the most poorly reasoned sports articles I can recall seeing. Basically everything he said is either inaccurate or misses the point.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
The Tribune apparently has star ratings on their articles with readers rating them.
That article has a 1.9 out of 5.
Useless projections.
Almost no one had the Brewers winning the division last year, based on their precious “projections.” Some (a surprisingly large number, actually) had them 4th. I’m going to continue beating the drum that the top 3 teams in the division could all have really disappointing or surprisingly good seasons, but are, overall, evenly matched.
by mpbMKE on Jan 31, 2012 11:12 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I think that's largely true.
The only thing that made me think twice about it was getting two bad projections and a pair of low power rankings in the same day.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 31, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Anyone that's posted run projections around here
has the Brewers only dropping off a tiny bit with Ryan Braun making all 50 games. Melvin did a great job filling Fielder’s hole even if it took an extra $10 million to do it.
i wonder if those projections and power rankings include Braun’s suspension. Depending upon Aoki’s production and the health of the pitching staff, Braun’s absence could have an impact beyond losing his 2 fWAR contribution.
If Aoki is a bust and the Brewers lose one of their starters, I could see the Brewers being a .500 team at best.
The wild card is Gamel
If he comes around we have a much better offensive team than last year.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
by nullacct on Jan 31, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Just being realistic
+Ramirez – McGehee + Gonzalez – Betancourt + Gamel – Fielder + Aoki – 3*Braun > 0
Mark Attanasio is the best.
True
although the net is a positive in the field.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, my point was parallel rather than perpendicular
does that even make sense?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
It's wildly optimistic to think Gamel can be a slightly below-average major leaguer?
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
sign your head is too into the minors
I’m all, what, they’re calling up Nick Ramirez ALREADY?…I forgot they signed Aramis
Those THT projections are weird
I mean, the Rangers and Phillies winning one more game (86) than the Mets (85)? 83 wins for the Cubs? A whole 68 wins for the Astros?
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 31, 2012 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
Having glanced at them
I think there is atleast 1/2 of them I disagree with but to have all of the NL East above .500 with the Mets at 85 wins is probably the least credible to me.
With results like that, you need to re-examine your algorithm
I can see an argument that they underperformed their talent last year, but without Reyes, I don’t see how they gain 8 games. When you get those results, you need to find an explanation for it and then a justification for it. Then you consider not releasing the projections at all. You just lose credibility on your other records when you leave a Mets-85 out there.
Also to have the Astros as being 7 games better than the Pirates
does not make alot of sense. If anything I would have it the other way round.
I'm publishing my projections later today
Need to inject some dihydrogen monoxide into my main process unit’s cooling system to run the simulations.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Ok, it just finished.
NL Central
Brewers: 124-38
Pirates: 81-81
Reds: 80-82
Astros: 77-85
Cubs: 40-122
Cardinals: 7-155
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Jan 31, 2012 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
I had my beta-version rounding system truncate the standings at an appropriate stoppage point
You know, for the casuals.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I understand. But keep this quote in mind:
“Decimal points give things an air of math-iness.”
— Rubie Q, eight seconds ago
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Actually
I was timing and it was exactly 7.349 seconds ago…
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
by MrLeam on Jan 31, 2012 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
It's Mr. Leam's world...
…. the rest of us are just living in it. The man’s wit is beyond devastating.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 31, 2012 8:18 PM CST up reply actions
Plus
I see you’ve taken the trendy mathematical view and rounded up from 0 to 7 and down from 162 to 155 (I hear its all the rage at MIT this year to do that…)
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
After last year's incident with Greinke playing basketball...
..are there any concerns with Nyjer Morgan playing hockey? I know he’s an experienced hockey player, and Brewers players are going to do what they can to stay in shape during the offseason. However, I can’t help thinking that hockey is a game that has a higher chance of sustaining an injury, and I just don’t want to see his season delayed due to a freak injury.
Of course, it seems like the Brewers have one of those entering every spring, so maybe I shouldn’t worry about it and just let it play out.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
The thing is...
if he does get injured, the Brewers are gonna get SH!T ON by the media for letting him play.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Jan 31, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
Nyjer Morgan's contract isn't guaranteed
But I’d still be pissed if got hurt. Corey Patterson anyone?
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 31, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
Well that's just plain mean.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I don't think we should really be concerned
We’re talking about practice man. What are we talking about? Practice? We’re talking about practice, man. We’re not even talking about the game… the actual game, when it matters… We’re talking about practice …
It is what it is.
by coolig on Jan 31, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
28 times if I remember right
so priceless.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 2:44 PM CST up reply actions
Hockey practice isn't much different than running laps on the track
If Morgan weren’t a hockey player, I would be worried. Everyone on the ice will know the score about him being a professional athlete, too. If he’s checking people into the boards, then yes, I would be worried. I have a feeling this will be him strapping on a pair of skates and skating around the ice with them for 30-60 minutes making a few passes and taking a few shots. These guys need their practice, too, so it won’t be much more than some good-natured fun.
I would rather let him skate around and be happy with a 0.01% chance of a serious injury than having him sulk coming into training camp. Maybe he’ll get some Sharks to come to Brewers batting practice when the Brewers make their annual west coast swing?
by ecocd on Jan 31, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, this.
I’d be worried if he were playing hockey, but it sounds like he’s just skating with the team.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I think it's less likely someone would get hurt playing hockey than basketball
As an avid hockey player. Nobody plays full-contact hockey after high school/Junior A that isn’t officially with an organization that pays you. No way T-Plush plays for a traveling team.
If Nyjer gets injured it just means Gomez plays every day, which is awesome
He doesn’t hit well, but his defense is all-world spectacular. He should play every day anyway. My only hesitation is if it ends up being the reason Corey Patterson makes the team…
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Concerns? Maybe minor ones, sure
I think most people thought Greinke’s injury was bad luck, not a event that makes the team (or fans) worry every time a player does a physical activity in the off-season.
Get a ife broseph
Here's the second bobblehead for 2012 (as reported by Bernie Brewer's Twitter account)
May 13: Yovani Gallardo
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Here's the pic of the bobblehead
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
looks like Manny Parra's brother
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Jan 31, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
If they made a few changes....
Lighten the skin, remove the beard, lighten the eyebrows, change the number…that design could be reused for a Manny Parra bobblehead.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
And on that day, Manny Parra would start, and pitch as a righty.
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
Hey, his glove looks like some black licorice
(I don’t think this one’s going to work like the calzone comment did)
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
By the way
I want this bobblehead, but it’s on a marquee game day. Guess I’ll be looking at ebay after this game.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
This is a little cool
The Brewers are unveiling a peanut controlled area for a few games in the upcoming season.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
As the father of a child with peanut allergies
I think it’s awesome.
I wonder how they’ll enforce it. It’s one thing to not have vendors selling peanuts into that area, but what about fans who carry it in? I’d hope that people sitting in those sections would have the decency to not bring any peanuts into that section, but I’ve been disappointed by idiots before.
It's only 3 sections on the club level for 3 games during the season.
They can just post signage and add an extra usher.
The usher might help
assuming that they actually enforce it (instead of just focusing on forcing people to sit in their designated seats).
Signage probably won’t make much of a difference, since it’s too late… the guy who bought the seats in advance not realizing that it was a peanut-free game brings in a bag of peanuts and probably still eats it instead of keeping it in his pocket or eating it on the concourse.
read the article
Looks like the seats haven’t been sold yet and they’re going to be explicitly sold as peanut-free seats. The Twins used to do this at the Metrodome a few times a year by having peanut-free seating in the football skybox.
there aren't a lot of details here
which kind of stinks.
When other teams have done this, they’ve done a major cleaning of the stadium in advance of the game.
With this just being a couple of sections during a few games, won’t there be, like, peanut debris. And also won’t there be an issue of peanut shells and skins blowing about in the wind?
by Nicole Haase on Jan 31, 2012 10:54 PM CST up reply actions
Its Insider only
but Eric Karabell thinks Mat Gamel will hit 20 HR and 85 RBI in 500 ABs.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 4:11 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
By the All-Star Break.
.310, 40 HR, 170 RBI, with two unassisted triple plays. A good year to build on.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
I can see it.
Then again I can also see him hitting .225/10/60 with 175 K in 500 AB too. I think the biggest thing for him is going to be giving him the opportunity to play every day and not worry about being benched.
Yeah, he's definitely something of an unknown
but, apparently, he’s BSoHL. So we’ll see if that helps.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 10:37 PM CST up reply actions
Also, he thinks that the lineup will score in excess of 700 runs this season again.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 31, 2012 10:37 PM CST up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:11 PM CDT)
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