Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 5, 2012 9:20 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while starting to decline.
We're 44 days away from spring training and, in what might qualify as this week's biggest news, we have a minor transaction to report. Baseball America is reporting the Brewers have signed former Nationals reliever and 2011 Marlins farmhand Victor Garate to a minor league deal. Garate is 27 and his only major league appearances came with the Nationals in 2009, but he posted a 2.73 ERA and struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings for AAA New Orleans in 2011.
The team hasn't officially announced the Garate signing, so we don't know yet if he'll be invited to spring training. John Steinmiller has a list of uniform numbers for the Brewers' official camp invitees:
| Player | # |
| Cesar Izturis | 3 |
| Mike Rivera | 25 |
| Edwin Maysonet | 29 |
| Travis Ishikawa | 45 |
| Juan Perez | 46 |
| Anderson De La Rosa | 75 |
| Jed Bradley | 77 |
| Taylor Jungmann | 78 |
It's possible I'm reading too much into this, but Izturis and Maysonet's low numbers would seem to imply that both have a shot of making the Opening Day roster.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are expected to work out Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki in Maryvale this weekend. With the Braun situation still a long way away from its conclusion, I don't think the organization will commit much money to a problem they're not certain will exist in the regular season.
Elsewhere in money the team probably isn't going to spend: Tom Haudricourt says the current budget probably doesn't have room for Carlos Pena at first base.
There might, however, be money available in the long term budget for this: Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com has new year's resolutions for all 30 MLB teams and thinks the Brewers should resolve to work out long term extensions with both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
Today in Prince Fielder notes:
- Roughly 55% of voters at this SweetSpot post think the Rangers would be better off if they signed Fielder instead of extending Josh Hamilton.
- Marc Normandin of Baseball Nation says the Nationals are the best fit for Fielder.
- MLB.com talked to current Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche, who says he won't hold a grudge if the team replaces him with Fielder. (h/t MLBTR)
- Steve Rudman of Sportspressnw.com says Safeco Field in Seattle should scare Fielder.
- Blaine Blontz of Call to the Pen weighed in on the notion that Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who will be a free agent following the 2013 season, is impacting Fielder's market.
Nicknames, anyone? Zack Greinke is one of the candidates (and currently second in the voting) to be assigned the "Science or Bravery?" moniker at NotGraphs.
In the minors:
- Miller Park will be hosting a Wisconsin game again this season: The Timber Rattlers will host Dayton in a Midwest League game on April 27.
- Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio has pictures of a lightly snow-covered Time Warner Cable Field.
- The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have posted another edition of "Spot The Difference," this time with a photo taken at Miller Park. I was able to get four of five.
- It's much too early to start thinking about this, but Matt Garrioch of MLB Bonus Baby has the Brewers selecting Massachusetts high school outfielder Rhett Wiseman with the #28 pick in his current mock draft.
Finally, I wanted to take a moment this morning to thank Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar for filling in yesterday while I slept off The Night Of 1000 Mugs. I'd also like to thank everyone that came out to be a part of the event: It meant a lot to me to be able to celebrate the milestone with so many of you. If you missed it, mark your calendars now for The Night Of 2000 Mugs sometime in late 2015, or start pestering Nicole to put something together between now and then.
Around baseball:
Angels: First baseman/DH Mark Trumbo won't be ready for Opening Day following a setback in rehab for his foot injury.
Diamondbacks: Signed first baseman Mike Jacobs to a minor league deal.
Indians: Signed pitcher Robinson Tejeda to a minor league deal.
Mariners: Signed Japanese shortstop Munenori Kawasaki to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Acquired pitcher Carlos Zambrano and a lot of cash from the Cubs for pitcher Chris Volstad, and signed third baseman Greg Dobbs to a two year, $3 million deal.
Mets: Signed infielder Omar Quintanilla to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed reliever Dan Cortes to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Acquired outfielder Jai Miller from the Athletics for cash.
Pirates: Signed pitchers Jo-Jo Reyes and Logan Kensing to minor league deals.
Rangers: Acquired infielder Brandon Snyder from the Orioles for cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Jesse Carlson to a minor league deal.
Tigers: Signed second baseman/outfielder Eric Patterson to a minor league deal.
With the possible exception of the Zambrano trade, the Astros might have had yesterday's most interesting transaction: They've hired former Cardinals assistant Sig Mejdal to serve as their "Director of Decision Sciences."
Houston also hired Stephanie Wilka, an Ivy League-educated lawyer with baseball PR experience, to serve as their new coordinator of amateur scouting. Stan McNeal of The Sporting News, though, was more interested in the fact that she's a former cheerleader.
In former Brewers:
- Ed Romero will spend the 2012 season managing the Astros' Gulf Coast League (Rookie) affiliate.
- Darrell Porter is the catcher on Richard Barbieri of The Hardball Times' All-January birthday team.
- Bluebird Banter listed Lyle Overbay as the 43rd greatest Blue Jay of all time.
As fans of a mid-market team, we spend a lot of time discussing the Brewers' "window" to compete: the opportunity they have to win with their current players before they become too expensive to retain or leave as free agents. At Grantland, Jonah Keri throws a bucket of cold water on the theory that teams need to endure periods of losing while building for their next opportunity. (h/t BBTF) Here's the telltale quote:
But far more often it's a bullshit excuse. It's a vague, faraway goal that always seems several years out of reach. It's a cover for cheap, greedy ownership, lousy scouting, drafting, and player development, and myopic trades. It's a weak attempt to placate a fan base screwed over by years of management incompetence and indifference.
The Brewers are pretty lucky to have an owner that's willing to put long term success ahead of the team's bottom line, but this takedown of teams that aren't so fortunate feels a little heavy-handed to me.
Today's Thursday Thinker will be up in a bit, but here's something else to keep you occupied while you're waiting: Sporcle would like you to name all 210 ERA leaders between 1970-2011. I was able to name 91 over five minutes before deciding I really should be working on this post instead. (h/t Lone Star Ball)
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to catch up on Big Bird reading.
Drink up.
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F*ck Jonah Keri
That article would’ve been relevant 2 years ago. The big money teams have caught up in prospect development. The reason the Rays are successful is not their trading, it’s their drafting. No one has ever denied that drafting talent results in a talented team. Keri’s completely and totally confusing the two issues. The Rays aren’t winning by trading for young talent. The Rays are trading for flawed talent that still has value. THAT was the A’s advantage (debate whether you will about their pitching staff, but Beane got some good deals that other GMs weren’t looking for at the time).
The strategy the A’s used to build their team doesn’t exist anymore. It’s 100% completely gone. To criticize them for making trades that didn’t help the team is ridiculous.
Now that nearly all of major league baseball is properly valuing players again, it’s all about money and drafting. No matter how much scouting you do, prospects either develop or don’t develop and there’s little an organization can do about that.
if the Rays have 2 consecutive years of drafts that don’t work out, they’ll be in the gutter again. The Yankees will never run out of expensive, good free agents. I would write more, but I actually have to, you know, work.
“The Window” is alive and well and Jonah needs to stop living in 2009.
by ecocd on Jan 5, 2012 9:45 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
This is partly true
All teams scout, but its the ones that put time, effort and resources into building a great scouting department that are most succesful. It also comes down to playder development staffs procedures.
The Brewers had a great run drafting really well with guys that were pretty much cant miss (Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Gallado) but have not been really good at developing and discovering talent in the past 4 or 5 years of players that can make a deep impact.
After 4 straight very successful seasons for the Rays, and lower draft choices, they still have a farm system that is ranked in the top 5 of baseball. The other thing is that they do not make very bad free agent signings (mostly because of fund availability) and they dont trade their prospects away no matter the cost.
Apparently you used to be able to get 'can't miss' guys all the way down in the second round?
Because that’s where the Brewers got Gallardo.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 5, 2012 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Gallardo was a "can't miss" in the 2nd round.
High upside that worked out, perhaps, but I imagine that’s most of the 2nd round picks.
That was my point.
btc was trying to play it off like Gallardo was a no-brainer and didn’t require any skill by the Brewers to scout and draft, when clearly that wasn’t the case.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 5, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
My point was that
There wasnt much that could have been done by the Brewers, or any organization, to mess him up.
They did the good thing by drafting him and recognizing that he had tons of potential. But the same cannot be said when it comes to guys like Mark Rogers, Kyle Heckathorn, Eric Arnett, etc. The team has a big developmental problem with pitchers.
As much as I'd love to disagree
you’re pretty spot-on with that one. Nick Neugebauer, Ben Hendrickson, Kyle Peterson, etc. They probably should have had a hell of a home-grown pitching staff by now. I’m not holding my breath on Jungmann or Bradley’s development right now.
There's no debate that the Rays are successful as a small-market team
As a counterpoint, they also tend to have a lot of draft picks each year, don’t they? If two teams hit on 50% of their 1st and 2nd round picks, then the team that has twice as many picks is going to have twice as many major leaguers develop out of the draft. The Rays deserve credit for getting those draft picks, but I would be interested to see the proportion of top picks that have worked out for teams. How much is scouting and development and how much is a bounty of draft picks each year?
The new CBA with less favorable draft compensation rules will hurt every small and medium payroll teams and shrink the window even more.
Teams that are successful at identifying reliable free agents won’t have to change a thing and will continue to be good. There’s a lot more margin for error in a $130 million payroll than a $50 million payroll.
At this point no one is trading prospects, except when they’re in their Window so the Rays aren’t unique in that anymore.
Considering the number of total busts, I don't think the Rays have any magical ability to draft good players. They have a lot of picks and have been lucky in the draft, which is largely a crapshoot.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Jan 5, 2012 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I don't think that's true
The Rays are good because they’ve been extremely lucky in the draft and for a period of time had a huge number of high draft picks. They are not better at drafting than any other team. I don’t think any team is “better” than any other at scouting and drafting (with the exception of teams that for a variety of reasons choose to take below-slot players; but even then it’s not like they don’t know they’re not taking the best player available).
The notion that this is some science that certain teams do better than others is ridiculous.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Jan 5, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions
Im not sure how to categorize your comment
Either A) Outrageous or B)Ignorant.
The last statement of your post is blatantly untrue.
There is some luck when it comes to scouting and player development, but to imply that teams do not gain an edge by employing good scouts and player development staffs is patently ridiculous. The difference between (good or bad) luck and good scouting when it comes to success is injuries.
The early 00 drafts by the Brewers resulted because they drafted good offensive players and had scouts that were able to identify those skills, it wasnt good luck, and the pitchers mentioned above like Rogers, et all wasnt bad luck, it was bad player development. A big market club like the Red Sox continually produces good drafts because Theo Epstein put in place a tremendous scouting staff and player development structure, despite picking near the bottom of each round for the past decade.
by backtocali on Jan 5, 2012 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I know that's what people in the Internet like to believe, but what is the evidence?
Other than you wanting to pretend you are somehow smarter than MLB GMs and front offices.
Scouts are scouts; there aren’t stupid teams bumbling about who somehow can’t “see” the hidden talent in players because they don’t proscribe to what you’ve invented as an ideology. Rays have lots of picks, so they get lots of good players (and lots of busts, which nobody talks about). They also get lucky (e.g. Evan Longoria). That doesn’t mean most of the teams in MLB would have come up with roughly the same results if they had had the exact same picks over the exact same time period. Red Sox have lots of money, so they consistently sign overslot talent. Please don’t pretend you don’t know that.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Jan 5, 2012 5:15 PM CST up reply actions
wouldn't* have come up with the same results
(they would have)
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Jan 5, 2012 5:16 PM CST up reply actions
That had little to do with why Epstein won
Ramirez, Ortiz, Damon, Beckett, Schilling, and Martinez (nearly everyone on their team who mattered) were either free agent signings or dump offs from small market teams. Drafting and trading can get you 90 wins and a wild card birth. You don’t get to that next level without cash. (Obviously there are exceptions, but not many).
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Angels - Around baseball
It’s a good thing the Angels picked up a guy named Pujols in the offseason to play 1B/DH while Mark Trumbo rehabs his foot injury.
Starting to look ahead to possible opening roster for 2012 season
Biggest thing would be to fill the bench. Specifically, two infield bench players and an outfield bench player. At this point, are the Brewers mainly looking at internal options & nothing outside other than minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
It depends on Aoki's workout this week
If he signs, he obviously takes the fifth outfield spot. My guess for the bench if he doesn’t sign:
IF: Izturis, Green (can play 3B, 1B, and 2B in a pinch)
OF: Gomez, Gindl/Schafer (both during Braun’s suspension, one the rest of the year)
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 5, 2012 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
Especially if they were just able to use the cash they got for Snyder.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Got a good laugh from this Heyman article
On possible Fielder destinations, from most likely to least likely. My favorite line:
4. Mystery team. I have no idea even if there is a mystery team.
Boras’ Heyman’s purpose in writing this article is tell us that there are TONS of teams that Fielder could go to, but I took away the opposite: The Nats and Mariners are the only teams with a realistic chance.
I agree about the Nats
But think the Marlins could swoop in too. If they were willing to pay up for Pujols/Wilson after Reyes, why not Buehrle/Fielder? If anything to keep the Nats from getting him.
In that NL East, the Phillies and Braves are always going to be players, but the Nats/Mets/Marlins will have to duke it out year after year for that 2nd WC or the division. Both Nats and Marlins putting themselves in good position for the next few years, and whoever were to get Fielder would give them that much more of an edge.
I think Miami is more likely to chase Cespedes than Fielder
IMO, they were willing to chase Pujols as a special case, but they seem to be pretty happy with Gaby at 1B. They’re pretty much set in the infield, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them turn their attention to CF.
It's incredible and asinine on their part to behave that way
But you’re probably right.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I wonder if the focus will actually pay off in terms of attendance
However, they will probably say that it does regardless of if it changed anything or not because attendance will be up since it’s a new stadium.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Attendance through media, maybe
The more players that can speak Spanish, the more exposure the entire team will get in the Spanish-speaking media. The more exposure the team gets, the more people will pay attention and the more people they’ll get to come to the stadium. They might even be in development of their own Spanish web portal (unless it already exists).
Beyond that, they could very well be aiming to expand their brand internationally like the Mariners with the Japanese market. I know Cubans, Mexicans and Puerto Ricans aren’t all the same just because they speak Spanish, but language is still an important link. It will be an interesting experiment to track.
Fielder is of Dominican descent!
FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.
by Jess'HittheBall on Jan 5, 2012 7:43 PM CST up reply actions
Fielder and Zambrano in the same clubhouse?
I’d like to see how that one ends.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 5, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
Not Surprised Jonah Keri wrote that piece
He’s spent a little too much time around Wall Street, I guess, since he has no understanding of the distribution of wealth in baseball. The real “bullshit excuse” is to say that because there was this one team one time who successfully built a contender out of rejects, wash ups, and lucky prospects, that gives small-market teams the same opportunity to win as everyone else. It doesn’t.
There are 20 or so smaller market teams, obviously some of them will win through luck alone, but how could any sane person think there is equality of opportunity in baseball when one class of teams has twice, three times, or even four times the payroll of another class of teams.
This is the key detail missing in Moneyball. They act like the Red Sox won because they co-opted Beane’s genius. No, they won because they co-opted Beane’s players.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
by mnbrewer on Jan 5, 2012 5:22 PM CST reply actions 6 recs
Well said
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 5, 2012 5:25 PM CST up reply actions
Thank you for this sentence.
The real "bullshit excuse" is to say that because there was this one team one time who successfully built a contender out of rejects, wash ups, and lucky prospects, that gives small-market teams the same opportunity to win as everyone else. It doesn’t.
I feel like it sums up everything I read by Keri about anything related to market size. Dude, Jonah,you should know this: The reason the Rays were such a great story for you is because they were such a longshot to win. The reason they were such a longshot to win was poor previous management and the extreme financial inequity of baseball’s system. Just because one small-market team overcame the long odds doesn’t mean those same long odds don’t exist for all the other small-market teams.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 5, 2012 5:52 PM CST up reply actions
Garate signing is official, will be invited to ST.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
G-r-r-reat!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 5, 2012 7:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Pujols' contract(s) with the Angels has one interesting part
The Angels’ deal was so complicated that it includes three separate agreements: His playing contract, a marketing deal and an agreement to enter a 10-year, personal-services agreement
There also is a marketing agreement that will pay Pujols for milestone accomplishments. The player will receive $3 million for 3,000 hits and $7 million for a record 763rd home run. He currently has 2,073 hits and 445 home runs.
Incentives based on performance are expressly forbidden by the CBA. I’m wondering how the Player’s Union will react to his signing a “marketing agreement” which gets around that entirely. I’m surprised there isn’t a payment for getting into the Hall of Fame.
A-Rod's contract has similar "milestone" incentives
I guess it’s just the same way of getting around explicit performance incentives as it is when they get bonuses for winning awards, etc.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Jan 5, 2012 6:33 PM CST up reply actions
Ozzie and Big Z together?
The only way to increase the crazy on that tteam is to hire Gary Busey as the bullpen coach.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 5, 2012 6:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:11 PM CDT)
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