Brewers Starting Pitching Comparables

by Xeifrank on Jan 7, 2012 11:56 AM CST

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Brewers top starting pitchers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Brewers starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Brewers starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Greinke's and Gallardo's list of comparables are pretty impressive. Marcum has a solid but not spectacular list. Narveson begins the drop off, which is mostly due to his BB/9 that climbs to over 3, then Randy Wolf rounds things out with some pretty non-impressive numbers.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
1	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37	Matt Moore	9.25	3.00	1.13
2	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
3	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.40	1.50
4	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
5	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
6	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
7	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
8	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
9	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
10	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
11	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
12	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
14	Matt Moore	9.25	3.00	1.13	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
15	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
16	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04	Stephen Strasburg	9.75	2.15	1.35
17	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.30	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
18	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
19	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
20	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02
21	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
22	Stephen Strasburg	9.75	2.15	1.35	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
23	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
24	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
25	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
1	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
2	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
3	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
4	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64	Wade Davis	5.57	3.20	0.87
5	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
6	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
7	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.10	1.41
8	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
9	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
10	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36	Randy Wells	6.17	3.00	1.28
11	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
12	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	Matt Harrison	6.00	2.94	1.44
13	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
14	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
15	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
16	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
17	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.80
18	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
19	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
20	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
21	Madison Bumgarner	7.90	2.05	1.30	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.50
22	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.50
23	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
24	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59	Aaron Harang	6.60	3.03	0.96
25	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.30	1.05
1	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
2	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
3	Derek Holland	7.61	3.20	1.30
4	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
5	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
6	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
7	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
8	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
9	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
10	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
11	Aaron Harang	6.60	3.03	0.96
12	A.J. Burnett	7.60	3.85	1.35
13	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
14	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
15	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04
16	Matt Cain	7.20	2.51	0.91
17	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
18	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
19	Carlos Zambrano	7.10	4.11	1.13
20	James McDonald	7.80	3.90	0.86
21	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
22	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
23	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.90
24	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
25	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41

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Comments

Chris Capuano is on Greinke's list.

I think this bears noting for no other reason than that it is true.

by mpbMKE on Jan 11, 2012 10:11 AM CST reply actions

Capuano

actually has pretty decent peripherals. His big question mark last year was his enormous home/away splits on getting hit really hard.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2012 12:02 AM CST up reply actions

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