EDITOR'S NOTE: I bumped this to the front page and will keep it here so we can update as things change over the winter. - KL
OK folks, sorry this is later than usual, but life happens, right?
- The Brewers are going to fill their Starting Pitching needs internally. I know Doug postures a lot during the offseason, but I think the Suppan and Wolf contracts will really prevent him from signing Ryan Dempster to a 3 year deal. I hope. I pray.
- The team will try to fill a good amount of its bullpen vacancies internally, and need to sign two relievers.
- There is one bench spot available as well.
- That's assuming 12 pitchers, 14 position players. (Mat Gamel's salary will have to be paid by the club regardless of if he is ready to go or not since he was injured playing for the team. If they DFA him subsequently, they will only pay a prorated portion. For our purposes here, we will take his full salary)
- Jean Segura is going to be the primary short stop, with Jeff Bianchi spelling him on the bench.
- Yes, I know, there are a lot of young and/or unproven guys. But I don't think Doug and Company are looking to sign a bunch of high dollar value contracts this offseason what with the potential of the cheap young guys, expiring contracts, and raises due in 2014. I think they will be content to see what they have this year, and then go upwards next year if need be.
- In case anyone was wondering, Rickie Weeks is the highest paid Brewers player in 2013. To this point, at any rate.
This year, I'm only using MLBTR's arbitration assumptions. I figure its pointless for me to try to come up with my own, when theirs are usually only marginally different, and pretty close to spot-on every year.
So, here's what I've got so far:
C - Jonathan Lucroy - $800k
C - Martin Maldonado - $490k
1B - Corey Hart - $10.33M
2B - Rickie Weeks - $11.0M
SS - Jean Segura - $490k
3B - Aramis Ramirez - $10M
IF - Taylor Green - $490k
IF - Alex Gonzalez - $1.5M
LF - Ryan Braun - $7M
CF - Carlos Gomez - $4.3M (est was $3.4M arb 4)
RF - Norichika Aoki - $1.85M
OF - Logan Schafer - $490k
RP - John Axford - $5M (est was $5.1M arb 1)
RP - Burke Badenhop - $1.55M (est was $1.6M arb 3)
OTHER - Mat Gamel - $490k
Total Estimated 2013 Payroll $76.425M
You can CLICK RIGHT HERE for the spreadsheet that I will keep updated as signings and pay-rates progress through out the offseason.
As you can see, this payroll is $30M short of last years season-beginning payroll. I think the team will spend on two relievers and possibly a veteran utility sort for the bench. I think this year opening day payroll will probably be around the $75-$78M mark.
EDIT (12/05): Not an egregious omission, but I generally remember to look up base player salaries for the current year. I had forgotten to do that, and as such base salaries increased by $10k to $490k. That (coupled with MooseHaas' astutely pointing out escalators from 2012 into Aoki's 2013 contract) brings total current projection to $68.83M.
Also, then, if the Brewers decide to fill the rest of the 25-man with league minimum players (otherwise known as the lowest possible opening day payroll to this point), they would sit at $70.3M.
As always, feel free to post comments and criticisms alike in below.