Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 2, 2012 10:19 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while calling off the search.
We're 16 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and yesterday was all Tony Plush all the time. While Nyjer Morgan was practicing with the San Jose Sharks (slideshow and video), the team announced that he'll be the subject of 2012's third bobblehead on June 10.
Elsewhere in hockey news, the Milwaukee Admirals will be wearing (retro) Brewer-themed jerseys for one night only on Friday. Adam McCalvy has more on the promotions and a picture of the jerseys.
Meanwhile, time is running out for the Brewers to reach a deal to avoid arbitration with their last two eligible players, Shaun Marcum and Jose Veras. Arbitration hearings started this week (John Lannan and the Nationals had their case heard yesterday, and Jeff Niemann and the Rays are scheduled for today), but Adam McCalvy says he hasn't heard when the two Brewers are scheduled.
Looking back, John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a post discussing how baseball's top 30 hitters in 2011 were viewed during their time in the minors. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder were listed as A- prospects in 2007 and 2006, respectively. Here's a reminder of why Braun's prospect status was held back a bit: High Heat Stats says his 2007 rookie season at third base was the third worst defensive season of all time.
Speaking of Braun, Tom Haudricourt says he won't be surprised if this week goes by without any announcement regarding the status of his appeal. I feel like this almost has to be resolved before the Brewers report to spring training, but it might be close.
In the minors:
- Starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson was the subject of this week's edition of the Timber Rattlers' Interrogation Room.
- Nelson missed the cut on Wisconsin Sports Tap's list of the organization's top five starting pitching prospects. Wily Peralta was #1.
- Brewer Nation continued their "Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers" series with a profile of Michael Fiers.
- Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio didn't have access to an actual groundhog, so he did the best he could with what he had available for this Groundhog Day post.
As of this writing Kentrail Davis leads Santo Manzanillo (and a closely grouped collection of others) by 33 votes in the race for the #12 spot in our Community Prospect Rankings. You have until 1 today to cast your vote, then stop back after 2 to vote for #13.
Today's power ranking note is another frustrating one: Sports Illustrated has the Brewers 17th.
Around baseball:
Blue Jays: Designated infielder Darin Mastroianni for assignment.
Mariners: Signed infielder Carlos Guillen to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed pitcher Chad Durbin to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Micah Owings to a one year, $1 million deal.
Pirates: Signed pitcher Juan Cruz to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Signed first baseman Dan Johnson to a minor league deal.
Today in former Brewers:
- Richard Barbieri of The Hardball Times has Hank Aaron starting in right field for his All-February birthday team.
- Bluebird Banter listed Paul Molitor as the 55th best Blue Jay of all time.
Here's my favorite sabermetric note from today: Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs considers the possibility that sluggers should bunt to the opposite field to beat the shift. Prince Fielder certainly could have picked up a lot of hits this way, but he also likely would have been left on first base after many of them.
And in baseball economics:
- Steve Cohen, who just paid $20 million to become a minority owner of the Mets, is also involved in the bidding to buy the Dodgers.
- D.J. Gallo of ESPN notes that Barry Bonds made $4.7 million as a Pirate in 1992, which is more than any Pirate will make this season.
Here's a reminder that hitting a baseball is really hard: The Biz of Baseball has an excellent infographic looking at the time a hitter has to identify, decide and swing at a 95 mph fastball.
This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History wishes a happy 89th birthday to former Milwaukee Brave Red Schoendienst. Plunk Everyone notes that Schoendienst and 1970 Brewer Max Alvis are two of the top five most plunked batters born on February 2.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to sort and label my gurus.
Drink up.
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man, fuck the Cardinals
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Feb 2, 2012 10:40 AM CST reply actions 4 recs
Going to Nyjer's thing and holding a heckling sign is douchey enough
but a handwritten tweet, with hash tag? Shake My Damn Head
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Feb 2, 2012 10:42 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
And apparently baseball is getting out of shape.
I mean, baseball didn’t workout, so it must be losing muscle mass.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
He was going to, but then he wasn't sure how to spell it.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Also, if you're going to be an ass, at least make sure you have a point.
4 WAR season, division title, walkoff hit to win a playoff series, developing a bona fide cult following…yup, sure sounds like “not working out” to me.
Also, you’re not even talking to Plush, you’re talking to some random person named Trissy.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Eh, you're right.
I just needed something to worked up about. Some smug-looking Cardinals fan in San Jose seemed as good a target as any.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions
Well, it's a bad joke.
Because he’s pretty good at the baseball thing. And just look at that douchey smirk. And sloppy handwriting. And…and… Ugh, I can’t stand to look at him anymore.
by mpbMKE on Feb 2, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Also, Morgan is not 'tryin' hockey'
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously he did, or he wouldn't have attended an NHL practice just to heckle a baseball player.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 2, 2012 1:03 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I'm guessing he feels about the same about Nyjer as I do about Carpenter
If the Brewers won the world series I’d be smug and sarcastic, instead of filled with anger and hate.
It's not a joke when you go to hold up a sign at someone in person.
That’s called being a dick.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Feb 2, 2012 4:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think it was all done in good fun.
Not all heckling is done out of spite.
He’s probably one of like 5 people there. Do you think he’s trying to start a fight with Morgan or something?
Umm... no?
Trying to make fun of someone in person is being a dick. It’s even worse if there were only 5 people there.
People these days are too used to saying whatever they want on the internet and thinking the celebrities are robots or something. Same reason people make death threats on Twitter and think that it’s all in good fun.
I doubt Nyjer Morgan really cared about this dumb sign, but that doesn’t make the dude’s intention any less obnoxious.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Feb 2, 2012 4:43 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Dont forget
Will make more money in the next two years than that guy will likely ever make. Such a cautionary tale, Nyger’s 2011. Almost as sad as a Diff’rent Strokes cast member.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Feb 2, 2012 12:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Nyger is some sort of Freudian slip, I'm sure of it.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Yep
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Also, in a related note
If you want to find this picture, its the first one in Images when you google search for “moran”. However, there are some potentially NSFW pictures there as well. And whomever this lady is with the surname “Moran”(presumably, anyway), she is quite beautiful.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
STOP! STOP!
THINK OF THE JP!
by The Left Button on Feb 2, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 11 recs
They have the internet on computers now?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Feb 2, 2012 4:00 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
...and I'm going to regret saying any of that for years now.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Rec'd
Then unrec’d to rec again.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you for doing the research on this topic that I cannot do until I leave work.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Not shown in this version...
is the fact that, in his other hand, he is holding another sign that says “Go USA.”
Best fans in baseball™
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
by mnbrewer on Feb 2, 2012 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
I know that every team out there is going to have its own idiot fans. Just as I don’t want some drunk frat guy who pours beer on a Cardinals or Cubs fan head to speak for the entire Brewers organization, I’m guessing most of the St. Louis fan base doesn’t want these two sign-holding douches to speak for them. I would hope not anyway, because they’re idiots.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 2, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh I should have used the sarcasm tag
For the record, I don’t think Cardinals fans are worse than any other team’s fans, but it’s annoying that everyone seems to think they’re better.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
by mnbrewer on Feb 2, 2012 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Cards' fans are worse than any other team's fans.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Feb 2, 2012 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with mnbrewer on this one
I certainly don’t think all fanbases are the same, but I don’t think there’s that much evidence for the idea that Cards fans are worse than anyone else. Other than the “Best fans in baseball” label, I don’t find anything about them to be particularly obnoxious. The team they root for (at least the Pujols/La Russa/Carpenter/Molina incarnation): Yes. The fans themselves: Nah.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Other than the "Best fans in baseball" label, I don’t find anything about them to be particularly obnoxious.
That’s probably where we part company: I find it extraordinarily obnoxious.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Feb 2, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Can we annoint ourselves as something?
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 2, 2012 12:41 PM CST up reply actions
We have the best appetite in baseball
To the point that hundreds of meals must be prepared in the parking lot prior to the game just to satisfy us for three hours, and we still swarm the concessions like an army of hungry wolves.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
by nullacct on Feb 2, 2012 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
"The Hungriest Fans in Baseball."
I could get behind this.
by mpbMKE on Feb 2, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
Consider it adopted.
The site has a new tagline.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 2, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
Not to be difficult...
but the thirstiest would certainly apply.
by NatronJ on Feb 2, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I've had this account for a bit...
and followed the BCB faithfuls’ comments regularly (to the point I feel like I already know half of you) but my last job blocked me from posting.
Trust me, I could use the additional support network after last season…
In that vein:
Might I suggest this as NatronJ’s profile picture?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Feb 2, 2012 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Its like
Danny De Vito and Arnold Schwarzenegger themselves had joined BCB…
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
Boom.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
I guess it depends on whether you think they essentially gave it to themselves, and how much they embrace it
The answer to both, in my view, is “kind of.” A lot of the latter depends on who you know – the few Cards fans I know in real life are really cool, and most of the regulars at VEB are, in my experience, eminently reasonable, down-to-earth people. Your mileage may vary, obviously.
I’m a bit more forgiving of the whole “Best fans in baseball” thing because I’m part of a Nebraska football fanbase that’s been called (and has called itself) “The greatest fans in college football” and has a really conflicted relationship with that label. I can see how people find it extremely obnoxious, though.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
Based on my experience with Nebraska fans in Madison...
they are not. Neither are the self-righteous and self-important Cardinals fans that embrace this term, but luckily they don’t seem to be the majority. I’ve had equally good and bad experiences with them.
From a biased standpoint
I think Badger fans are pretty awesome: they travel extremely well, they pack the house at the University’s third sport (Hockey), not to mention football and basketball, they’re extremely loyal, and generally courteous to others.
That being said, “EAT SHIT” and “FUCK YOU” student section chants can (and probably do) change people’s opinions of us.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
As a fan of both the Huskers and Badgers
It was kind of saddening to hear so many Husker fans come home from this fall’s game in Madison with a whole lot of “Well I never!” pearl-clutching and a newfound hatred for Badger fans.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
I couldn’t believe how much beer was thrown at me by Husker fans in the 4th quarter, or how people who were friendly and engaging with us in the first half literally couldn’t stand next to us in the 2nd half. They wouldn’t come within 3 feet of us. I turned to talk to a guy I’d been talking to all night, and he was on the other side of the room brooding. Lincoln’s going to be fun next season, ha.
Let it be noted
That “EAT SHIT” and “FUCK YOU” are not isolated to Camp Randall.
What is isolated to Camp Randall is permission to do the wave.
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 2, 2012 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah we rock the wave at Camp Randall
Slow Wave, Fast Wave, Parted Wave. Awesome.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 2:15 PM CST up reply actions
You kids are ungrateful of the legacy we've left you
quit shitting on my University.
-UW Alumnus
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
One positive of the wave
is that it gets people on their feet during sporting events. I have witnessed a disturbing trend at (specifically Packer) games recently in which crotchety ass “fans” worry more about others sitting down in front of them than standing up and contributing to the homefield advantage. Shameful.
Fair enough
I’m not real anal about it, but if I’m there with my kids, its going to be annoying, so I get it.
Then again, anyone who takes their kids, but gets drunk beforehand loses any right to complain about this in my eyes.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 2:16 PM CST up reply actions
I dont excuse the chants, but I dont get overly angry with them
I get very angry with the T-Shirts though.
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 2, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
Last time I checked the UW bookstore was still selling FU/ES tshirts. That aspect of it all is kind of ridiculous.
by KittenMittons on Feb 2, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions
As someone who is supposed to hate the Badgers and their fans
Their fans are fine. I’d say they’re pretty average in the big ten as far as obnoxiousness goes. Nowhere near Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, or Penn State.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
by mnbrewer on Feb 2, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd agree
In my time at UW, as well as my times going to sporting events post-graduation, I find that Ohio State and Michigan State fans are the worst. Michigan is pretty bad, as well as Penn State, but I’ve consistently found Ohio State and Michigan State to be at the bottom.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions
Well, those people can eat shit
Fuck ’em.
by tcyoung on Feb 2, 2012 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
as a former Iowa State student
we did indeed find Nebraska football fans to be extremely obnoxious. ;)
/YMMV if you did not attend a Big 8/12 school in the last two decades
I know one Cardinal fan in real life
and he is one of the biggest douche castles I’ve ever met.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I have a cousin who is both a Cardinals and Nebraska fan
He is often quite annoying in his self-righteousness about the supposed greatness of his teams.
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Feb 2, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
If he still thinks the Huskers could be described by the word "greatness"
He’s a special kind of delusional.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
It was funny. He was talking a big game before the Badger game this fall. Then the Badgers won. I laughed.
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Feb 2, 2012 6:33 PM CST up reply actions
This
I don’t think the best fans in baseball™ thing necessarily came from Cardinals fans, and if someone said that about us I’m sure we’d embrace it. Nonetheless, that label is completely wrong.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Also, golf clapping.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 2, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
For today's slow news day, I bring you some old-time blues
where he uses almost every conceivable method to fret the guitar.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Very much so.
Did he say that was the average? I must’ve missed it.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I get 91.8mph for the 2011 season
but my data only collects the pitchf/x on the final pitch of each plate appearance (because normally I only care about the final pitch of a plate appearance, because normally I only care about the pitches that hit the batter). Still, it’s a sample of 65,500 pitches so it’s probably not far off. And that 91.8 number is just the pitches that pitchf/x says are 4-seem fastballs – I left out the 2-seem group.
by plunkeveryone on Feb 2, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
"I only care about the final pith of a plate appearance..."
if it hits the batter.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
the average speed of 4-seem fastballs that hit a batter was 91.6mph in 2011.
I should have just gone with that number.
by plunkeveryone on Feb 2, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions
*pitch
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I need spring training to start ASAP!
Anyone remember when they came out with the new Atbat app last year?
Ugh, Shortstop
I just kind of nod and smile
every time I see someone predict the Brewers to finish in the bottom half. I’m sure those predictions won’t go unnoticed by the team come Spring Training.
by jcollins205 on Feb 2, 2012 11:28 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed...it just shows the vapidity of the whole "preseason predictions" conventional wisdom more than anything.
The thought process on just about all those non-statistical rankings and predictions goes like this: “Brewers, let’s see…lost Fielder, gonna lose Braun, added a couple old guys, small-market team to begin with – yeah, they’re back to mediocrity.” That’s really about the extent of it. One exception I’ve heard was on Jonah Keri’s podcast with the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner a couple weeks back, when they both cautioned not to reflexively count the Brewers out this year because of the Fielder and Braun situations.
Let ‘em count the Brewers out. If they’re right, who cares what they thought – in that case, we’ve got a lot bigger issues to worry about. And if they’re wrong, we all get to point and laugh as the season goes on.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The Braunophile got his Little League uniform last night
This year his team is the Jayhawks. Yes, as in KU. The caps even have the KU logo. So I’ve started teaching him “Rock, chalk, Jayhawk!” It’s unclear whether his entire league will be using college gear, but I’m just glad they’re not the Tarheels, Illini, or Buckeyes.
For the record, they didn’t have #8 in his size. Or #28 (his number last year). Or #27 (his number the previous year — for Vlad, not GoGo). We picked #1.
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
RE: Tony Plush playing hockey
I wonder how frequently he plays now. The video doesn’t really show much of anything. I hope they let him do more than take a couple of breakaways on a goalie who made absolutely no effort to stop him.
I mean, as much as I would love to skate with the Red Wings, and how amazing that would be, I’d like the goalie to at least sort of try.
RE: Bunting to the shift
I think more sluggers should do this. I don’t know how long it would take them to “learn” to bunt again, but I feel like a .500 OBP is available for the taking for free.
If they stop shifting you, your stats should get stronger anyway hitting normally. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
I'm torn on this.
Getting on base is great, but I like solo home runs too. And those score runs without depending on 5-6-7-8 to drive a slugger home.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
That seems like an old-school "playing for the least likely outcome" argument to me
You’re still going to hit solo home runs once they stop shifting you. If anything, it’s an argument that your big slugging lefty should hit 2nd or 3rd and get on in front of some other good hitters.
If your team is SO bad from the 5-8 spots that you can’t afford to take a free base when it’s open, you have much larger problems.
by cwolf20 on Feb 2, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Like finding a way to beat the Cardinals in the 2011 NLCS?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 2, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's really the crux of the matter
The situation is wholly dependent upon the hitters behind the slugger. In general, it’s not HR vs. single, it’s single vs. extra-base hit. Even the slowest players will get home from 2nd on most singles and none of them will get home from 1st on anything other than a HR.
With 1 out, it’s conceivable that the slugger could productively bunt. Even with three .315 OBP hitters coming up, he’ll score at least 20% of the time from 1B. On the other hand, with a straight single he still scores 20% of the time, he’d score 45-50% of the time from second base and 100% of the time with a HR by himself so there’s still a large benefit to having him try to get to 2B or better.
With 2 outs, the case is pretty clear cut that no one should be bunting, let alone a slugger. If you’re solely interested in the hitter scoring and nothing tangential like advancing the battering order 1 spot or working on keeping the defense honest, he shouldn’t be bunting. A slugger would need the next two hitters to get on-base to score from 1B and that’s only going to happen 9-11% of the time. Fielder hit a HR 6.8% of his official AB. Tack on scoring from 2B and 3B, and the fact that a lot of pitchers will walk him with 2 outs, anyway and his bunt hit percentage would have to be absurdly high (>90%, I’d think).
I think I worked out earlier in the season that Fielder would have to successfully bunt for a hit about 60% of the time with 1 out, which is feasible given how deep teams were playing him. Most managers, however, would be happy to see Fielder bunt with 1 out and wouldn’t bother changing their defensive alignment given the threat of a bunt.
As fun as it is to think about a slugger bunting, the situations where it’s even slightly in favor of a bunt will be extremely few and far between.
How can people support walks but not support bunting for a hit over 50% of the time?
That’s my claim you need to take issue with. If you support my assumption that a slugger could get on base over 50% of the time when he’s getting super-shifted and still think he should swing away, I seriously question your logic.
I was referring to unintentional intentional walk
If a slugger is leaning over the plate to try to bunt, he could be giving up a free base. If your slugger also happens to have a good eye, then a few balls could put him into a great 2-0 or 3-1 hitter’s count while they’re trying to work around him, but not entirely. The bunt makes more sense on a 0-1 pitch than a 1-0 pitch, for instance.
Also a walk gets you to 1B 100% of the time, while a bunt that gets you on base over 50% of the time. If the outcome of the PA was going to be a walk anyway, attempting a bunt hit is just stupid.
Bunt attempts can be pulled back
I’m not saying that 50% of the bunts that you put in play will be good for hits, I’m asserting that choosing to bunt against the shift before any pitches are thrown will put a person on base 50% of the time, good for a .500 OBP and .500 SLG
It’s also about a .450 wOBA, which was eclipsed by zero players last year. The closest was Bautista at .441. Essentially, getting on base 50% of the time turns you into Jose Bautista in overall run value.
The only argument against me is refuting my assertion that they get on base 50% of the time with the bunt. I contend that this argument can’t be made yet because of limited data. It also means my assertion is not necessarily valid, either, which I would concede.
Walks and bunts aren't comparable
A walk is the result of the hitter not swinging at four non-strikes. In other words, a walk means that the hitter was being selective or the opposing pitcher was issuing a free pass.
I think the biggest problem people have with power hitters bunting when the shift is on is that by bunting the hitter is conceding anything more than a single.
But if you don't swing, you can't hit a solo home run?
I understand that they’re distinctly different, but the logic would imply that just getting to first base 50% of the time is not adequate for a power hitter, which is patently absurd in my opinion.
Fielder has about a 10% XBH percentage over the last 3 years.
Playing for the least likely outcome…
My point was that people can support walks (not swinging at non-strikes) but not support bunting.
Assuming your 50% is correct, I think it makes more sense to look at the likelihood of Fielder scoring if he swings away vs. bunts for a hit.
What percent of that time will Fielder score from 1B with McGehee, Betancourt and Gomez/Kotsay/Hairston hitting next? It doesn’t help the team if Fielder gets stranded.
Bernie_Brewer:
Fourth #Brewers bobblehead of 2012 will be given out on 7/1 & is presented by Klement’s. My friend, THE ITALIAN RACING SAUSAGE BOBBLE!
Fifth #Brewers bobblehead of 2012 will be given out on 7/29 and is presented by Time Warner Cable. Hall-of-Famer BOB UECKER!
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Feb 2, 2012 1:58 PM CST reply actions
Oh man, a Ueck bobblehead
I normally don’t get too excited about giveaways, but I really want one of those.
I'm surprised Uecker isn't the last one.
He’s about as risk-free of a September bobblehead as you can get. There’s no chance he’ll be traded away or do something else to ingratiate himself over the course of the season.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I'm curious who the Sepetember bobblehead will be.
I thought for sure Marcum would get a bobble. But September? When he could be traded in July? Maybe Ramirez.
by KittenMittons on Feb 2, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
Wait, no, nevermind.
They did him with the Kalahari splash zone, so it must have been in the last 2 years.
I'm guessing a pitcher.
Mainly because they’ve done two position players, two special, and one pitcher so far. Maybe Narveson?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
The September bobblehead will not be announced yet
Instead, the space will be kept free for the time being. When Gamel is injured, we need Hart to play in the outfield and we need a saviour at first base then HE shall return and all will become clear…
BCB Fantasy Football 2011 winner (Swansons League)
Also-ran (loser!) in every other BCB Fantasy competition
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
So...Branyan.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Or were you talking about Overbay?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Aoki
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 2, 2012 4:38 PM CST up reply actions
MLB draft tweet
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA
Chance but not highly likely. @jmaerzke: Do you believe Joey Gallo will be in play for one of the #Brewers’ first round picks? #mlbdraft
Is he cordless?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 2, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:23 PM CDT)
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