Friday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 3, 2012 10:26 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while the dog thinks about killing you.
We're 15 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and today the topic du jour is Zack Greinke. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN has a story on Greinke approaching free agency without an agent, Nick Prill of The Brewers Bar wonders if the Brewers can or should work out a long term deal with him, and David Golebiewski of Baseball Analytics has a look at the varying speeds of Greinke's curveball.
With a full season of Greinke on tap Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk has the Brewer starting five projected for a 3.81 ERA, which would be the eleventh best in baseball. Ryan Topp of Bernie's Crew has more on the topic behind the JS paywall.
The Brewers also announced two more 2012 bobbleheads yesterday: The team will give away Italian Sausage bobbles on July 1 and bobbles featuring Bob Uecker on July 29.
Earlier this week I mentioned a Bill Petti post at Beyond the Box Score showing that the Brewers have been the best team in baseball since 2002 at keeping below-replacement level players off the field. Yesterday he expanded upon that post with a great chart showing the distribution of players by team.
In the minors:
- Sergio Miranda went 0-for-3 but scored a run as Puerto Rico beat Venezuela 3-1 in the first game of the Caribbean Series. You can read more about that in today's Winter League Notes.
- The Janesville Gazette's "Peace and Glove" blog has a Twitter interview with 2011 Wisconsin outfielder Reggie Keen.
Meanwhile, Santo Manzanillo leads Orlando Arcia by just five votes and first and fifth place are separated by just eight ballots for the #13 spot in our Community Prospect Rankings. You have until 1 pm today to cast your vote, then stop back after 2 to vote for #14.
Congratulations are due out today to the Brewer marketing team, who received the National Sports Forum's Overall Award of Excellence. Follow that link for more on the honor.
If you'd like more Brewer content this morning but you're sick of reading, @Mass_Haas has links to Chris Narveson's appearance on WTMJ and Rickie Weeks' spot on WSSP from last night.
Around baseball:
Cubs: Signed pitcher Matt Garza to a one year, $9.5 million deal to avoid arbitration and signed pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith to a minor league deal.
Indians: Signed first baseman Casey Kotchman to a one year, $3 million deal, and signed pitcher Rafael Perez to a one year, $2 million deal to avoid arbitration.
Nationals: Signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a one year, $11 million deal. Also, pitcher John Lannan lost his arbitration case and will receive $5 million this season.
Adam McCalvy says that Garza's deal should help clear the way for the Brewers to reach an agreement with Shaun Marcum, as Garza was one of the pitchers Marcum was being compared to.
Unfortunately today's top story around baseball involves Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton, who was spotted drinking in a Dallas area bar Monday night in an apparent relapse of his drug and alcohol issues (FanShot). Until recently, Hamilton's "accountability partner" was new Brewer hitting coach Johnny Narron.
In former Brewers:
- Casey McGehee has reportedly lost 23 pounds this winter and cut his body fat percentage in half in preparation for his first season in Pittsburgh.
- As of this writing Russell Branyan is a distant third in the voting for the nickname "Stainless Steel Meat Hammer" at NotGraphs.
It should be a pretty exciting season to be a Brewer fan, but not every fan base is so lucky. Christina Kahrl of ESPN looks at the possibility that 2012 could see at least four teams lose 100 games. Dan Szymborski (in the sidebar of that article) says nine teams have a 10% or worse chance of triple digit losses.
Today in baseball economics:
- The Mets' search for new minority owners might be over. Comcast and Time Warner are reportedly coming together to fund sports network SNY's purchase of the last four remaining shares, valued at $80 million. If this goes through SNY will own 16% of the team.
- The Houston Business Journal used the late 90's Brewers as an example of an attendance boost the Astros might see when they switch leagues next season.
Preparations continue for Opening Day at the Marlins' new ballpark, including the installation of a massive aquarium in the fence behind home plate. My favorite story from yesterday was this one about the team inviting first baseman Gaby Sanchez to try to break the tank's glass with a baseball before they put fish in it. (h/t @bigleaguestew)
This morning's edition of Today In Brewer History remembers the second anniversary of the Brewers claiming Marco Estrada off waivers from the Nationals. It's also 1998 Brewer Eric Owens' 41st birthday, and Plunk Everyone notes that his nine HBP are fifth all time among players born on February 3. Finally, Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times notes that it's been 1000 days since Zack Greinke lost a game 1-0 in 2009 and actually had his ERA go up.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to return Dan's coffee.
Drink up.
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Casey losing 23 pounds
Is exactly what he needed to do over the winter. He played much, much better at a lower weight. He’s got enough natural strength, keeping the weight down will increase his mobility and bat speed. If he keeps it off PIT is going to be happy with the results.
Mark Attanasio is the best.
I disagree
Casey’s problem last year was that he couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Losing 23 pounds is not going to improve his line drive rate or spray chart which were both keys to his success in 2009 and 2010. Losing 23 pounds will make him a better defender at 3B, but it’s not going to make him good enough to be considered a defensive asset. Losing weight will probably improve his value, but it’s not going to improve his worst problem.
Sure it could
Doesn’t mean it will. Could improve his bat speed and foot speed – both would help his offensive production.
Always thought he was a pretty good fielder, just limited range – could help that as well.
Of course this is the prime time for “Player X” is in the best shape of his life" stuff. The Brewers season ended about 3 months ago – losing half your body fat and 23 pounds in that amount of time seems like a lot, would be interesting to see if he’s able to maintain and perform with the weight loss during the daily grind of the baseball season.
To your point, I’m sure the Brewers expected that he’d lose some weight in the off-season, and didn’t think it would make him a significantly different player, thus trading him.
Get a ife broseph
So now
McGehee decides to shed the weight. Maybe if he did that last year he would still be playing in Milwaukee.
"Milk is for babies. When you grow up you have to drink beer."
Regarding your signature.
Don’t tell that to Sheriff Geronimo.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
And while we're on the topic, I thought this was relevant
to the hungriest fans in baseball.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Mitchell!
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
by SRB on Feb 3, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Greened.
And thrilled to do it too. Nicely done SRB. (Though the fact that it took 7 hours to turn green makes me sad. Though given the fact that “Keep circulating those tapes” was once associated with that fantastic show tells me I shouldn’t be surprised.)
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 3, 2012 7:13 PM CST up reply actions
The more I think about this,
the more it pisses me off. Tits McGehee didn’t think it would behoove him to be in the best possible shape for the most important season of his career (and the most anticipated Brewer season…possibly ever) but he does this year? I never minded him as a Brewer but I hope he sucks this year. Sometimes I think I liked Casey more because him coming to us made the Cubs look like idiots…
While I agree with some of the sentiment of what you said
Calling him “Tits McGehee” is a little more than I was comfortable with.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 3, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
What about Chesty St. Claire?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Feb 3, 2012 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Thought it was Busty St. Claire
But your head was in the right spot so you still get the rec
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Feb 3, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions
I got it confused with Chesty Larue.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I am kind of disappointed we didnt start calling him that earlier.
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
by Jeo on Feb 3, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
Duly noted
I realize it is kind of mean spirited and by all accounts, McG seems like a good dude but while Yuni was most Brewers fans’ whipping boy last year, mine was Casey at the fat. I was pretty sure, after witnessing him play a bunch in Seattle, that Yuni would be turrrrible. I expected McGehee to produce like an All-Star and aside from the 1 game against the Cards, he didn’t…
Why would he?
I don’t think he was considerably bigger last season that the season before (at least it didn’t seem so).
I think he’s got something to prove again (new team and coming off a horrible season), so he’s doing whatever he can to show that he belongs on an MLB roster.
Maybe he was just following the advice of his hitting coach
And future Cub manager, Dale Sveum, the guy with a worse career average than Gomez
Mark Attanasio is the best.
I just finished the BCB Book Club's first book
The Extra 2%. I got it as a Christmas present so I was late to the game. If anyone reads it I would suggest scrolling through the comments in those posts.
I really liked the small stories within the text that I didn’t know. The Giants and White Sox almost moving to Tampa, the Joe Maddon background story and the various paths of players that became the stars of the teams were very interesting. The themes of the book do repeat often though and I found myself thinking ’didn’t I just read this?’.
Overall, I would recommend the book. And if you look through the old book club posts you get to learn about a BCB connection to the Rays ’Mystery Men".
"...just throw that pill over the plate and I'll make it happen." - Tony Plush
by thefreewheelin76 on Feb 3, 2012 10:57 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
In honor of McClung giving a shout out to the Frosty Mug
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I will always remember McClung for this game
What a huge performance.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 3, 2012 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
Payroll disparity is still alive and well
Ranking of 2011 payroll for the teams with at least a 10% chance of finishing with 100 losses:
7, 9, 16, 18, 20, 21, 27, 28, 30 = 19.6 rank average
Given that it looks like the Mets are slashing payroll this year, their #7 will drop to #13 or #14.
Money still buys above-average pitching, though the Yankees and Red Sox have some bad contacts on their books.. The FIP rankings for the Top 10 payroll teams, in order of payroll:
13, 1, 20, 14, 6, 22, 17, 2, 27, 15 = 13.7 average rank
Money doesn’t appear to buy you as much hitting. Top 10 payroll wOBA in order of payroll:
3, 13, 1, 11, 27, 20, 14, 22, 29, 9 = 14.9 average rank
The average rank of FIP and wOBA for the bottom 10 payroll teams was 16.9 and 17.2, respectively. That’s definitely an advantage for the monied teams, but not a complete drubbing.
I imagine if I ran 3- and 5-year averages the disparity would widen a bit.
For those keeping track at home, the opening day 2011 payroll according to USA Today: Yankees $203 million, Phillies $173 million, Red Sox $162 million, Angels $138 million, Brewers $86 million, Pirates $45 million, Rays $41 million, Royals $36 million.
Under the new CBA when the Rays stop getting 26 extra draft picks, it will be interesting to see if they can continue their consistent success.
by ecocd on Feb 3, 2012 11:44 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Great post
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Garza contract
So, does this mean that Marcum is likely going to stick to his amount (and likely go to arbitration) since it’s lower than what Garza got?
I still don't buy Garza as a comp for Marcum.
Their numbers were similar-ish last year, but Garza’s been better much longer and didn’t lose an entire season to injury. He’s also younger.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
So Yuni should be paid $5 per game, thanks to coupons from Stouffers.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Feb 3, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
How much does the injury year factor in, though?
I thought they generally only go two years back when looking at previous stats.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Agree.
Plus, just because both are in 3rd year of arb, doesn’t mean it’s equal, since Garza’s a Super 2.
All that said, he might be the *best* comparable this season
I don’t know of any starter contract this year that was close to Marcum’s situation this year.
The things that people come up with...
A website of pictures of food that are balanced on a dog’s head. Wow.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
This comment might seem a little random...
…but how did the Rally Lobster get its start? What is its origin story?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
The first year I had Gorman, he was a lobster for Halloween.
That was ’08, and I posted the “Rally Lobster” as a joke in a game the Brewers eventually won. It took on a life of its own from there.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Just saw this Tweet from earlier today from Haudricourt
Remember when #Brewers fans agonized over sending Matt LaPorta to Cle in CC Sabathia deal? Signing of Casey Kotchman tells you something.
I’m guessing it’s been discussed before, but now, 3 1/2 years after the trade was made, how is that trade viewed? My opinion on it still hasn’t changed, it was a good move at the time and still see it as a good move now.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
It was and is outstanding -- then, now and always.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Feb 3, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Passes the test of time.
Loved it then, love it now. Honestly, LaPorta could be an All-Star 1B and I’d still love it now. I actually feel bad for the Indians that they didn’t really get anything of value in return. “There, but for the grace of Doug, go the Brewers.”
by mpbMKE on Feb 3, 2012 1:13 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
LaPorta might be turning into a disappointment, but Michael Brantley is becoming a solid regular for the Indians.
This deal is still a net win for the Brewers, but it’s not as dramatic of a difference as a 1-for-1 Sabathia/LaPorta deal would have been.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
True story.
I never would have thought that LaPorta would tank like he did. He had all the skills as a hitter.
How much did you watch him in the minors?
I remember seeing him in the Southern League in 08 and being kind of like … eh … solid minor-league power hitter who’s not going to sustain this at an MLB level.
Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but back then I liked Gamel’s potential to be a productive MLB hitter more than I did LaPorta’s. Just thought the swing was more “pure.”
I guess...
He hit the crap out of the ball his entire minor league career and had great plate discipline.
He's only really a regular because the Indians are bad and have a $50m payroll
He’s young enough to improve of course, but he’s pretty much “just a guy” at this point in his career.
Get a ife broseph
Fair.
But he’s still hitting .265/.316/.359in almost 1000 PA before his 25th birthday.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Yeah, you could go either way depending on your mood
The 25th birthday cause for optimism, having 1000 PAs with a .675 OPS is cause for concern.
Get a ife broseph
How is he defensively?
I took a look at his stats and it looks like he was average.
Don’t know if he would have stuck in Milwaukee, depends on how well he can play center field.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Wasn't looking at that, I was just looking at some stuff on B-Ref.
Yeah, that’s bad. Ok, then I’m not upset losing him either.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Last bobblehead for 2012
Aramis Ramirez on 9/16.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Thoughts on the bobblehead lineup.
Definitely want Lucroy, Gallardo, Morgan, and Uecker. As usual, I will pass on the sausage (Italian) unless I just happen to go to the game on that day. Ramirez is the wild card, I would say no today but that could change with a good season.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
To me it's more of a "look at the shiny new guy!" move
It’s been a less than uplifting off season, but he was one of the bright spots. Bright spots sell tickets, so the front office is doing everything they can to promote the good changes.
If you're going to give out a "Hey, get excited about the new guy!" bobble, it should be in April when you know people will still be excited.
I’m ok with a Ramirez bobble, but the timing seems all wrong here.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
With normal big acquisitions, I would agree.
However, I’m not so sure with Ramirez. Take away his name and the stats would say to be excited. However, I still see him as a Cub and probably will until he’s played some games for the Brewers. If his bobblehead day was in April, I would probably pass. In September, with a good season there should be excitement around that bobblehead day, though he would still need a good season.
Of course, that’s just me. I don’t know if any other people have that “he was a Cub so I’m not as excited” feeling going.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You're probably right.
But people are going to dislike him even more if he’s a former Cub and having a rough season.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
So 25,000 Cub fans can put them on Ebay?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 3, 2012 10:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
They don't pack Miller Park like they used to.
Somewhere between the Cubs turning awful and the Brewers becoming a hot ticket, it’s no longer an insufferable atmosphere for Cubs games. In fact, Wrigley’s getting filled with more and more Brewers fans every year.
His bobblehead day will be against the Mets.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Reading Tim Brown's Hot Stove Daily on the Reds
We know he hates the Brewers, so he finds multiple opportunities to put the Reds above both the Brewers and the Cardinals. Fine. The Reds are a trendy pick for possible division leader (although it seems like they’ve been that trendy pick for the last 3 or 4 years now). But he also claims their bullpen is the best in the division. Are the Reds really that strong there? Yes, they have Madsen but we have two of the very best closers in the division.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 3, 2012 2:30 PM CST reply actions
I don't know
I’d take Madson/Chapman/Ondrusek/Marshall over Axford/K-Rod/Loe/Veras(? I don’t know who should put there).
It’s a question for me of depth, and while the Brewers have a superior closer and set up man, the Reds have a deeper bullpen that can shut down more innings for more nights.
Though the Brewers should need less innings out of the BP thanks to better starting pitching, but I still think the Reds have a better stand alone bullpen. The Brewers still have a better team though. Deeper line-up, better outfield defense, better starting rotation.
The Marlins are going to have the most interesting pitch camera in baseball.
The fish tank thing is pretty cool. I’m looking forward to seeing it.
2011: A wasted year
I don't know if you'll be able to see the fish on the main camera.
I’m guessing that they’ll still have the standard advertising board and padding directly behind home plate.
I don't know,
if they’re worried about wild pitches getting it, it’d have to be somewhere back there.
2011: A wasted year
I doubt they're too worried about it
thus why they had Sanchez throw balls at it. Granted, it was interesting that of all the players they asked, they picked the one who throws the ball the least… the guy who plays 1B.
Why not crank up the pitching machine and fire it directly at it?
I totally agree about the pitching machine
Especially if using Sanchez had resulted in a headline today along the lines of
“Marlins needs 1st Baseman after Sanchez wrecks shoulder”
Anyone know
if they are bringing back The Franchise this year on Showtime? It was kind of bs last year, not as much “inside the clubhouse” material as Hard Knocks but I can’t help but thinking that the Brewers would be a perfect fit if they decided to film another season.
I doubt they would do the Brewers.
The small market aspect by itself would probably take them out of consideration. They would probably want to appeal to a bigger market.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Brewers have that scrappy underdog thing, though.
Americans love the scrappy underdog. And beer. And things that celebrate beer.
That choice of teams doesn't surprise me at all.
I just wonder how much they’ll have to use subtitles.
2011: A wasted year
Guess that makes sense
I’m obviously biased but it seems like the Brewers always have some big personalities on their squad (albeit one less without Prince) and would be perfect for a show like that.
In my opinion, those types of shows are very valuable to their respective sports and a big reason the NFL is so successful. If it wasn’t for 24/7, I would never be able to convince my wife to watch boxing…that’s for damn sure.
You're new to the whole posting thing.
I know I’ve seen you use “reply” properly before, so try to remember to do so even when the post you’re replying too is the last one on the page.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
It's okay.
I think replying to the last post on the page is the cause of 99% of reply fails. And almost everyone on the board STILL does it once in a while.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Feb 3, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Dodgers just spent $1.3 million dollars on a cup of Coffey.
Todd Coffey, to be precise.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
It's our small revenge for Eric Gagne.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Yeah, watch out for reply fails, Natron
They’re really looked down upon.
by cwolf20 on Feb 3, 2012 5:25 PM CST reply actions 6 recs
I was wondering who was going to pull this joke out.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
haha rec'd
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 3, 2012 10:52 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
lol
This better not become a thing.
2011: A wasted year
by Tepo6688 on Feb 3, 2012 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Lol
Rec’d both.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
I can't help but thinking
my reply-fail was well worth it upon seeing the aftermath…
by NatronJ on Feb 4, 2012 1:19 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
Good job noob.
Not as good as they guy who joined and immediately caused the Brewers to win a Playoff game…but a solid start.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:23 PM CDT)
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