Wednesday's Frozen Margarita
Kyle's off being cooler than us, so you're stuck with me today. Blame Kyle.
Let's start with news destined to make me stabby, CBS Sports has unveiled a fantasy baseball app aimed at women called The Baseball Boyfriend. Not only does it dumb down fantasy baseball to just one player for women, since we're clearly not smart enough to handle a whole roster-full, but it's full of doodle hearts and other ridiculousness, including lots of typos. Seriously, be happy this entire Mug wasn't just me ranting about this crap.
The mini rant is that this, at its base, is actually a pretty good idea - simplifying fantasy sports to make them appeal to a broader audience (of ALL genders.) Unfortunately for CBSSports (who let's be honest, no one uses for Fantasy Sports except when it comes time to fill out a March Madness bracket) they took it in a ridiculous direction, meaning other sites will take the basic idea and run with it while they're stuck being the laughingstock for treating women like they're mindless 13-year-old girls.
Ok, on with the rest of the Margarita...
Brewers news first:
Doug Melvin will be inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. Here's the Brewers.com article. (SgtClueLs is not impressed)
Speaking of our exhalted GM, he was on WSSP. You can hear the full interview here, but the gem is probably him saying that the "Brewers and Shaun Marcum were "a minute and a half away" from arbitration hearing. (h/t @Mass_Haas
Over at The Official Site there is a look at the Brewers Top 20 prospects. Looks like its focusing on Wily Peralta. They also made an All-NL Prospect List. Peralta's the only Brewer on the list.
FanGraphs has their list of Top 10 Worst Transactions of the Winter and the Brewers signing of Aramis Ramirez checks in at #7.
MLB FanCave has announced a Top 50 finalists and is starting online voting. There are two Brewers representatives in the Top 50.
Disciples of Uecker started a series ranking the Brewers organization's Top 30 prospects. Yesterday's post of players 21-30 can be found here. I'm pretty surprised they have Brock Kjelgaard all the way down at 28. And here's 11-20.
The Brewers hired a new groundskeeper to take over the job after the passing of Gary Vanden Berg. Justin Scott comes from Kansas City and - my favorite part - has a BS in Plant Science/Turfgrass Management from Missouri.
The Brewer Nation is doing a countdown to Opening Day by jersey number. Today's highlights John Axford.
It's Insider, so I didn't get to read the whole thing, but Buster Olney is saying that Doug Melvin reiterated that the team is committed to giving Mat Gamel at first.
John Sickels is an authority on minor league players and he's taking the time to go back and look at how successful some of the pitchers he rated have become. He's narrowed down the parameters and overall, he did a pretty damn good job. Relevant to realize you should probably put stock in his projections. Both Zach Greinke and K-Rod make the list.
Bradley Woodrum at FanGraphs categorized MLB teams based on his opinion of their SABR leanings - he says the Brewers are an "In-Between Organization."
I'm not sure if Kyle posted this already, but here's a pretty interesting look at Racine native Chad Harbach, author of The Art of Fielding.
It probably says a lot about the rest of the unsigned arbitration-eligible players that one of the top ten most prominent cases left is the Brewers case with Jose Veras. (h/t MLB Trade Rumors)
If you're a really big Ryan Braun's Graffito fan and you find yourself in Wellington, FL (outside West Palm Beach) you're in luck! There's apparently a new one there.
Today in former Brewers:
Bill Hall signed a minor-league contract with the New York Yankees. The contract comes with an invitation to Spring Training. If he makes the 40-man roster, he gets $600,000. He announced his singing on Twitter. Best reaction goes to @Brandon_Warne with his suggestion of how Hall might handle Yankees Roll Call.
Former Brewer minor-leaguer Brett Lawrie's tweets are apparently so difficult for Jays fans to understand that one of them has started a Twitter account to translate them for the greater public.
In today's obvious news is obvious, ESPN published a story that Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is confident in Prince Fielder. As if the 9-year, $214 million contract was a sign of that.
Dodgers: Avoided arbitration with Clayton Kershaw as he agreed to a two-year, $19 million contract. That leaves his third arbitration-eligible.
Oakland: Extended general manager Billy Beane's contract through 2019. A's beat writer Susan Slusser thinks that's a sign the Athletics are getting a new stadium.
Rangers: Signed Elvis Andrus to a three-year, $15 million deal.
Red Sox: Signed 17-year-old Australian Daniel McGrath
And in the rest of interesting baseball news...
This is my must-read of the day: A 17-year-old is the front line of Negro League research and has been for a few years. He's making friends with former-players and helping them get their pensions.
FanGraphs has their list of the 10 Best Transactions of the Winter - the Brewers aren't on the list.
The example in this piece on The Book is about the Super Bowl, but the gist of the article looks at how to correctly use win-expectancy graphs. Interesting, IMO.
One of the most linked-to and talked about articles yesterday was this Hardball Times piece looking at how payroll and wins are tied together and gives you some historical perspective on it.
Also at Hardball Times is this David Wade piece explaining why he's against replay in baseball.
I can't be the only one who looks at this Angels billboard of Pujols and doesn't think the A stands for Albert.
Baseball Prospectus has released their 2012 PECOTA forecasts, and they've tweaked their formula slightly to give more weight to a player's history/performance and less to regression. The article breaks down all the changes and I have to admit that the math problems make my head hurt. But for those of you so inclined, I'm sure it will be super-interesting.
Given the story about Baseball Boyfriend - Smart move by SABR to take this opportunity to remind you that they have a Women in Baseball newsletter - archived here.
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2012 Pecota
Here is what they have for the Brewers (WAR):
Gonzalez 1.5
Ramirez 2.2
Hart 1.5
Weeks 2.9
Braun 3.8
Morgan 1.6
Lucroy 1.0
Gomez 0.4
Gamel 0.5
Rodriguez 1.0
Greinke 3.5
Wolf 1.1
Marcum 3.1
Gallardo 3.5
Axford 0.3
Yikes
Those are some, um, not-so-nice numbers.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 8, 2012 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
I thought for a second it was raining, but now I realize those are actually chunks of sky.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 8, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
They are low, but not really extraordinarily
On the whole they have the Brewers about 5 games worse than what I did.
But this is just the baseline numbers as well, doesnt account for playing time projections, etc. I would assume that those numbers creep up a bit for the release of their annual.
I also sorted Reds and Cards data, and both of those come out ahead of the Brewers.
Man, when the projection models are even lower than BTC's forecast
we know we’ve got problems.
consider my expectations for 2012 tempered.
They are.
For reference’s sake, here are their 2011 WAR according to B-Pro (since they do PECOTA), with the projected change in parentheses.
Gonzalez 1.6 (-0.1)
Ramirez 2.6 (-0.4)
Hart 2.8 (-1.3)
Weeks 3.1 (-0.2)
Braun 6.6 (-2.8)
Morgan 2.8 (-1.2)
Lucroy 1.4 (-0.4)
Gomez 1.4 (-1.0)
Rodriguez 0.7 (+ 0.3)
Greinke 3.3 (+ 0.2)
Wolf 1.4 (-0.3)
Marcum 2.9 (+ 0.2)
Gallardo 3.4 (+ 0.1)
Narveson 1.6 (-0.9)
Axford 1.6 (-1.3)
So…every single offensive player who saw significant time in 2011 will be worse in 2012? Every single one? Something’s fishy here. That said, the pitching projections are reasonable, with the obvious exception of Axford.
That being said,
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 8, 2012 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
Don't you people get it?
Prince Fielder is gone and Ryan Braun was a juicer. The Brewers will be awful now.
by Tristram28 on Feb 8, 2012 12:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
For reference
Last years initial spreadsheet had Weeks with a 2.0 projection (the source of the numbers posted above), the BP player cards had him at 2.9, and I dont quite remember what the annual had him at, so its probably like that across the board for all teams all players to an extent.
Greinke projection is not reasonable, unless they think he'll have a freak basketball injury again
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
Thats not what they did
But he did outperform by a pretty wide margin last season. His age, body type, contact rates, comps are also factors, and his biggest comps are Cliff Floyd, Shawn Green, and Jon Knott…
Although I agree that its a low number for him, it makes sense when you read the explanation of why the numbers appear as they do now.
No, it really doesn't.
He’s 29 years old, coming off seasons of 4.0/3.8 bWAR and 4.2/3.7 fWAR in 2011/2010. PECOTA is just plain wrong on this one.
Agreed
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 8, 2012 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
Outperform by a pretty wide margin?
Here are his fWAR in each of the last five seasons:
2007 – 4.6
2008 – 1.4
2009 – 0.8
2010 – 3.7
2011 – 4.2
Even if they think he’s a 3.0 player, predicting he’ll put up a 1.5 next season seems a little extreme.
These are absurd projections, and I no longer trust PECOTA projections.
There is no historical data to assume those numbers at all.
PECOTA has been really bad for years now
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I no longer trust projections period
Real life has too many variables.
Also the most valuable part of BPro, at least the annuals, was the snarky comments in the player profiles.
Other interesting numbers from the spreadsheet
Martin Maldonado biggest breakout candidate (still only projected at 0.4 WAR)
Taylor Green best candidate to improve (winds up with 0.2 WAR)
Erick Almonte and Alex Gonzalez biggest candidates to collapse.
Biggest attrition candidates Almonte and Mike Rivera.
Yeah, I get more and more worried about Gonzo every day.
I suppose we’ll always have his defense, but I’m expecting him to fail the eyeball test pretty hard.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
Upside on that though, if true
Is that the fall isnt very far.
by backtocali on Feb 8, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha!
The Brett Lawrie Babelfish is awesome. If the ultimate result of trading Lawrie to the Jays is the creation of this Twitter account, then I will be forever grateful.
by mpbMKE on Feb 8, 2012 11:42 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Bet you loved the "Replay in Baseball" article...
It outlines lots of fun logical fallacies.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
i'm old
and i find lawrie’s tweets pretty easy to follow. but the babelfish is fun for overexplaining things, so i guess i’ll follow that, too.
by Capt Science on Feb 8, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
He isn't completely unintelligible
but I really like the translations. It actually reads a lot like my roommate when he’s making fun of somebody.
They're funny... But too sad.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
Bill Hall is singing for the Yankees
I knew he was a decent utility player 5 years back, now we know where he was concentrating his talents.
I was about to ask
How the Yankees picking up ultra-versatile Bill Hall missed the top 10 acquisitions list
Mark Attanasio is the best.
Stealth is one of Hall's many skills.
He has an airplane that only flies under the radar. If it wasn’t for the trail of tobacco spit, he’d be impossible to locate.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 8, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If going to the dentist is cool, then consider me Miles Davis.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Feb 8, 2012 11:52 AM CST reply actions 4 recs
Bill Michaels just interviewed Doug Melvin on the radio.
He admitted to reading Dave Schoenfield’s article yesterday about Brewers having 4/5 of the best pitchers by rotational order in the division. I wonder what other articles he reads. Maybe he found the article by reading the Mug.
Maybe Doug Melvin is tcyoung
Did I just blow your mind?
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 8, 2012 12:25 PM CST up reply actions
I assume DM is a brewer fan
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
by Jeo on Feb 8, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions 24 recs
Walked into that one...
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
Wow, T-ball.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
A++
This comment absolute made my night.
by Nicole Haase on Feb 8, 2012 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
If I said I was, half of the people here would know better than to believe anything that Doug Melvin says.
I'm sure DM is too busy to read and comment on any blogs with consistency
But if I were him, I’d be interested in seeing the general opinion of people who are invested in the team emotionally. I’d be tempted to comment from time to time, too. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was a somewhat regular reader and occasional poster around here.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 8, 2012 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
The thought of him commenting here is great, but no way
I assume that staff print off stuff for him to read, especially if its off-season and he might be asked about the articles when he’s making his radio or other public appearances.
Get a ife broseph
Though if we see a poster show up named "Brew Ranger", beware!
Remember: Schadenfreude is still Freude.
by Brew Angel on Feb 8, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Bring Milwaukee a championship...
then we’ll see about getting you some beer.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
If he was visiting BCB
he would’ve been driven off by my obsession with hating Yuniesky Betancourt. I look forward to hating Corey Patterson this year.
You're planning on following the minor leagues that closely?
Baseball, you can't get here soon enough.
by Tepo6688 on Feb 8, 2012 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Maybe Grim Spandango IS Doug Melvin.
He claims to write the songs from “Doug’s perspective,” but secretly wishes he could tell the whole world that the songs indicate how he truly feels.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Feb 8, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If it wasn't $3, I would totally be down for a choose-one-BF Fantasy App
If it’s just choose-one-BF, I’m sure we could just run it ourselves without their fancy app. Who wants to be in charge of doodle hearts and drafting Albert Pukols?
So, are the Padres daring you to be a Padre hater?
I only ask because they just signed Jeff Suppan to a minor-league deal.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
by -JP- on Feb 8, 2012 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
On the off-chance that Suppan gets promoted to the MLB team...
That could be a really awkward trip to Milwaukee.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I am giddy with the possibility of getting to lustily boo Jeff Suppan on an opposing team.
It would be like the best Christmas ever.
I got goons.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Feb 8, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Soup vs. Greinke...
Sad day for Padres fans.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 1:06 PM CST up reply actions
The Brewers would either lose that game 1-0 or 11-10.
by Noah Jarosh on Feb 8, 2012 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Hahaha no doubt.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 4:09 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think it'd be that awkward
He’s already faced the Brewers at MP when he went back to the Cardinals in 2010.
1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER and 1 BB
gas can suppan

Mark Attanasio is the best.
by nullacct on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
What is TLR doing in the top picture there?
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 8, 2012 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
The bottom photo was taken by a bartender immediately after cutting TLR off for the night.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
He keeps a bottle of scotch in the glove compartment for just such an emergency
The anger subsided quickly once he got in his car.
Has anyone else considered
that Suppan was actually a double agent and reporting to TLR when he was on the Brewers…
by NatronJ on Feb 8, 2012 3:19 PM CST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
That would explain why DM decided to counter that
by putting a spy in the scoreboard and playing with the lights.
by sjlee on Feb 8, 2012 4:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha I love this one so much
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 8, 2012 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
OK, I'm gonna avoid Tucson at Iowa now
…that is if they’re playing there this year. I didn’t check. I guess it only seems like they play Omaha 8000 times a season.
Not totally surprised to see Ramirez and Fielder
both featuring in this list and Papelbon is a clear #1.
But not to include Pujols is a little strange considering how sabermetric formulae tend to treat players after they get over the age of 35
Yeah, they're saying the same thing in the comments.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
Also
The argument against A-ram is full of hindsight with no context. They should have put Green at 3B and spent the money to upgrade SS and 1B. Ok, brilliant, who were they to spend the money on? Rafael Furcal? Uh, no. When it didn’t work out for Rollins there really wasn’t any good option for short.
Hey maybe MLB should convert to fantasy reality baseball, where all the GM’s get together and draft a new team each year.
is the site not formatting correctly for anyone else?
I’m on mobile posting this, but when I get on my pc it’s all unformatted. It’s the same problem with both browsers.
by Fiesta on Feb 8, 2012 2:54 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
I assume this has been talked about before, so my apologies if so
We’ve been told MLB won’t make a formal announcement if Braun’s suspension is overturned, but that Braun’s people surely will.
Is the opposite true, I assume? If the suspension is the ruling, will Braun’s people comment on it? MLB has to make a formal announcement about it, correct? I’m just wondering whether we should be interpreting the nothingness of the situation over these last few weeks as newsworthy or not.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 8, 2012 5:51 PM CST reply actions
It would be awesome if nobody said anything,
and he just played every game.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 5:53 PM CST up reply actions
And RAKED
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If he does end up getting banned for 50,
I vote he gets some Groucho Marx novelty glasses and pretends to be the Brewers new left fielder Bryan Raun Nobody would ever catch on.
I need real photoshop…
Baseball, you can't get here soon enough.
by Tepo6688 on Feb 8, 2012 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
I think he's actually pulling those off.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions
No
not enough ironic facial hair.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 8, 2012 10:20 PM CST up reply actions
He could just change his name to Fausto Carmona.
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 8, 2012 9:58 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Did you get this picture out of the media guide?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
No I don't think so
If MLB announces the suspension, then as far as I know Braun would be free to talk about the circumstances. And if indeed he has a legitimate argument that it was an inadvertent mistake with no intent to “cheat,” it would definitely help his image to get that information out there.
by Tristram28 on Feb 8, 2012 6:56 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Are there any other free agents out there whose signings you're interested in at this point?
Interested to see where Oswalt ends up, but it seems like it’ll be the Rangers or Phillies (let’s hope).
Lee is one other candidate whose landing spot holds mild curiosity for me. Anyone else have someone they’re keeping an eye on?
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Feb 8, 2012 5:58 PM CST reply actions
"Braun to the Yankees?"
The Milw CBS station just had a news flash saying that.
“Braun to the Yankees? We’ll have the story at 10.”
WTF?
by Whiffleball Tony on Feb 8, 2012 9:18 PM CST reply actions
He doesn't list what would be coming back to Milwaukee
I can only assume it would take 1x Alex Rodriguez and 1x functioning time machine.
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
I will say this:
As dumb as pure trade speculation pieces are, he handles the idiots in his comments very well.
Knowing how most of these TV sports folks are...
They probably heard Branyan and thought they were the same guy.
by Whiffleball Tony on Feb 8, 2012 9:27 PM CST reply actions
Reply fail....I'm knew - Please make sure I never do this again.
by Whiffleball Tony on Feb 8, 2012 9:27 PM CST up reply actions
Eh, it's probably more just trying to create news by inciting some rumor based on the fact that the Yankees would theoretically be interested.
You pretty much had it.
The “source” was a yankees blogger who said the yankees should trade a bunch of prospects for Braun. Some real investigative jounalism by CBS 58. I miss the days when the news wasn’t so pathetic.
by Whiffleball Tony on Feb 8, 2012 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
What're you, Natron!
Burn 'im!
Baseball, you can't get here soon enough.
by Tepo6688 on Feb 8, 2012 9:36 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha reply failing noob
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Feb 8, 2012 10:20 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
Baseball Boyfriend
As dumb as that is, isn’t it specifically targeted at 13-year-old girls who otherwise have no interest in baseball?
Solve for X: 5.5 (Fielder) + 0.3 (McGehee) + 0.5 (Betancourt) < X (Gamel) + 3.6 (Ramirez) + 1.1 (Gonzalez)... X >= 1.7 fWAR!
That's why it's so
SMART!!!
...BRANDONJENNINGSSUX!!!
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Feb 9, 2012 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

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